It was a fascinating week around the SEC, and like we expected, things shook out quite a lot. The SEC West representative at the SEC Championship Game is decided (woot!), and while the SEC East still has 3 candidates mathematically in it, the decision tree got a lot simpler. While LSU played a laugher and Ole Miss was idle, every other team played a meaningful game.
Mississippi State 17
Alabama 12
This was a fun, competitive game to watch, and it went pretty much by MSU's script for winning games. Run the ball effectively. Get some timely turnovers and either score or get good field position. Rush the passer effectively. MSU only had 215 yards of total offense, compared to 274 for Alabama. The box score of this one is ugly. MSU ran the ball OK, but didn't have a single running back average more than 4 yards per carry. Their QB didn't complete half his passes, and averaged less than 5 yards per attempt, with an interception. But of course, there were the interceptions, which were the deciding factors in this game.
MSU gets to 6 wins, with two shots at getting to 7. Alabama remains at 6 wins, but they get a rent-a-win next week, and they'll get to 7 before going against Auburn to close out the regular season.
Tennessee 34
Arkansas 13
I hope our team watches film of this game and the Auburn-Arkansas game to figure out how to stop Darren McFadden. You may remember he totally ripped us apart last year. We won anyway, but we never figured him out. Tennessee figured him out, even though he got 115 rushing yards. Most of it was after Tennessee was already way ahead. If we can hold McFadden to 115 yards, we will beat Arkansas easily too.
Tennessee is one step closer to the SEC Championship Game. They need to win out in games over Kentucky and Vandy to make it.
Kentucky 27
Vandy 20
Speaking of Kentucky and Vandy, they played a game this week that did not make it to television. It was competitive to the end, but nothing really stands out on the box score to me. It was just another game that Vandy had a chance to win and lost. They held Woodson to 222 yards passing and didn't give up a 100 yard rusher. However, they themselves did not pass the ball effectively, averaging less than 6 yards per attempt. This was, of course, an important game for both teams. Kentucky got to 7 wins, and Vandy failed to get to 6.
Georgia 45
Auburn 20
Now, before I get into this game, I want to whine and moan about officiating. There's been a trend in the SEC years to be really liberal about throwing flags for late hits on the quarterback, and indeed late or helmet-to-helmet hits on anyone. It's gotten out of hand, and they're penalizing things that simply should never be penalized. The game of football includes hitting, and the officials should recognize that. Here we are in a league with tons of athletic, running quarterbacks and we're penalizing little hits against them. We have athletic, aggressive defenses in this conference. That's why this conference is so popular, but aggressive teams are being heavily penalized, much more than is really justified.
There were two outrageous penalty calls in this game, both against Georgia, and both when the game was still very much undecided. In the first, a Georgia defender rolled over Brandon Cox as he went down to the ground. There was no helmet-to-helmet contact, and it was probably less than 1/2 second after Cox was down. It was flagged for a 15 yard penalty. The second one involved another hit on Cox, who had just thrown the ball. It was also unjustified.
The SEC needs to do something about this. It's outrageous. It's hurt LSU, who has gotten, I think, at least 2 unjustified late hit penalties that have hurt us. One was against Florida, and led to a touchdown. The other was against Bama, and was by most accounts the game-changing play of the first half. But it's also hurt other teams. I recall complaining about a call that went against Mississippi State a couple weeks ago. Two went against Georgia this week, and they came at times when the game was still very much in doubt, and in fact when Auburn had momentum. These could have been game deciding calls, and they were both egregiously wrong, and went against the aggressive team.
Anyway, on to the game. Despite the large margin of victory here, this game was close until the end of the 3rd quarter. Georgia scored a touchdown on the last play of the 3rd quarter to go ahead by 11. Just half a quarter earlier, Auburn had all the momentum in the game. They had a lead, and had scored the previous 17 points. What's more, Georgia couldn't move the ball at all. They had a couple consecutive 3-and-outs on offense and looked terribly out of sync.
I'm starting to agree with Gary Danielson, who said, "Momentum means nothing in this sport." If you thought momentum was important in football, you would have quit watching this game halfway through the 3rd quarter thinking that Auburn had it won. But Georgia handed the ball to Knowshon Moreno and Thomas Brown and the rest is history.
Auburn lost all shot at a BCS bowl, and Georgia closed in on a possible berth in the SEC Championship Game. They need to beat Kentucky this week and hope either Vandy or Kentucky can beat Tennessee though.
Florida 51
South Carolina 31
I can name one team that appears to have packed it in for the season. I can name one player who deserves to win the Heisman Trophy. The GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week is Tim Tebow. I think this is the 4th time he's won this award this year. He threw for 304 yards and 2 touchdowns. He ran for 120 yards and 5 touchdowns. With Percy Harvin out with an illness, Urban Meyer gave the ball to Tebow and he dominated this game.
In fact, if Tebow wasn't going to be the GTOSPPOW, it would go to his teammate Andre Caldwell who caught 11 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown.
Florida put itself in position that it can still win the East, but it needs a lot of help. They need Kentucky to beat Georgia and for either Vandy or Kentucky to beat Tennessee. They really needed some help this week to get to the Championship Game, and they didn't get any of it. Now, it's looking fairly unlikely. It could still happen though.
What does it mean?
The SEC has 10 bowl-eligible teams, and we could get to 11. The SEC has 8 bowl tie-ins. The SEC could potentially get an at-large BCS placement, giving us 9 bowl teams. It looks like someone's going to miss a bowl game despite being eligible. One of the rules is that you have to take a team with a winning record over a team with a .500 record if there is one available, so you can be bowl-safe by getting to 7 wins.
Bowl-safe:
LSU
Auburn
Tennessee
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Bowl-eligible:
Mississippi State
Alabama
South Carolina
Arkansas
5-wins:
Vandy
Arkansas and Mississippi State play each other this week. One of those teams will be bowl-safe. Alabama plays ULM and they will end up being bowl-safe. That will make 8 bowl-safe teams. If Arkansas doesn't beat MSU, they have to beat LSU to get bowl-safe. Tall order. If MSU doesn't beat Arkansas, they have to beat Ole Miss to get bowl-safe. South Carolina has to beat Clemson to get bowl-safe, and if they don't do it they are probably the team that will be left out of bowl season, having lost 5 in a row under that scenario.
Heck, it is entirely possible that the SEC will have 10 teams with 7 wins, and that this standard will no longer be bowl-safe. It think that's unlikely though.
It is also possible, especially in a 10-teams-with-7-wins scenario, that the last SEC team out will get an at-large bid in a game that does not have an SEC tie-in due to a lack of eligible teams elsewhere. But in a 12-game season, there are likely to be a lot of bowl-eligible teams out there.
Later this week: Recruiting discussion.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Sunday, November 11, 2007
The Day After: La Tech
Ehh. Some fans can't stand prosperity. We win 58-10, and some can do nothing but complain. Did we look like the New England Patriots? No. I was able to watch the game thanks to the wonders of modern technology, and we looked like a team playing a vastly overmatched opponent, but that had a hard time getting out of the gate and made a few mistakes along the way to a big victory. I'm not complaining.
On the way there, we clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game, by virtue of Bama's loss to MSU and Auburn's loss to Georgia. We now also know for sure that our opponent there will be either Georgia, Tennessee, or Florida, and with Georgia's and Tennessee's wins, Florida looks like a long shot. You never know, though. Florida has to hope that Georgia loses to Kentucky and that Tennessee loses to either Vandy or Kentucky.
With the win, it looks like we're going to be the #1 team again, and it also looks like there is no way we can miss out on the national championship game if we win out. We may get passed by one team, but we won't get passed by two. Thank you Ron Zook and the Fightin' Zooks. I always liked you, and I thought you got totally jobbed in Gainesville.
Who would have thought we'd see the Ryan Perrilloux to Mit Cole touchdown pass combination? I predicted it, but I can't find the link. Sorry.
We played the whole game without starters Marlon Favorite and Darry Beckwith, who should be back next week, and we'll need them. BenJarvis Green-Ellis is a fine running back for Ole Miss, and of course there's a certain former Heisman candidate waiting for us the day after Thanksgiving. We've been a little vulnerable to power running backs in the middle of the field this year, and we will have to be at our best in those games.
It appeared to me that about midway through the second quarter, the coaches realized that there was no way La Tech could match our athleticism, so they started using the speed guys a lot more and we started pulling away. Of course, speed-demon Jacob Hester got into the act with the longest touchdown run he ever imagined himself making (87 yards). I seem to recall Dalton Hilliard having a 90+ yard touchdown run at some point in his career, but other than that Hester's run is the longest in my memory.
Brandon Lafell and Terrance Toliver had big games as well. In particular, it's great to see Lafell be a solid contributor. With his good games in the last two weeks, maybe he's ready to be our #2 receiver again. The kid is a solid player, who just had a case of the drops. Richard Murphy had a great run that he almost stuck into the end zone. Trindon Holliday and Keiland Williams had more touches than usual. In all, it was a chance to showcase some future talent, even on the offensive line, where Joe Barksdale and others got into the action early. On defense, we saw an awful lot of Chad Jones, Drake Nevis, and Jacob Cutrera, all guys who figure to be major players next year and the year after.
I think that Murphy kid in particular looks like he's going to be an exciting player. It's very telling that he's gotten into some big games late in the action, such as against Auburn and Kentucky. For whatever reason, when the game is on the line and they need a speed back, they got to Murphy rather than to Keiland.
If you're wondering why I haven't focused much attention to arguing who should be #1 and who should be in the BCS, it's a simple matter of keeping in mind that there is still a lot more season to play. We have three more games to play, against Ole Miss on the road, against Arkansas at home, and against Georgia/Tennessee/Florida on a neutral site. All of these games are loseable, and I don't want to get caught up in arguing who's better between LSU and Oregon or between Oregon and Kansas when there's still plenty of football left to be played before people really have to make that decision. How many teams have vehemently defended their lofty rankings only to subsequently lose a game they probably should have won? Michigan. USC. Us! Ohio State. Cal. The other USC. Wisconsin. Oklahoma. It may be November, but there's still a lot of football left to go here.
In the coming days, we'll go around the SEC and discuss the fact that the conference now has 10 bowl eligible teams. And if you want to know who the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week is, check out the box score of the Florida-South Carolina game.
On the way there, we clinched a spot in the SEC Championship Game, by virtue of Bama's loss to MSU and Auburn's loss to Georgia. We now also know for sure that our opponent there will be either Georgia, Tennessee, or Florida, and with Georgia's and Tennessee's wins, Florida looks like a long shot. You never know, though. Florida has to hope that Georgia loses to Kentucky and that Tennessee loses to either Vandy or Kentucky.
With the win, it looks like we're going to be the #1 team again, and it also looks like there is no way we can miss out on the national championship game if we win out. We may get passed by one team, but we won't get passed by two. Thank you Ron Zook and the Fightin' Zooks. I always liked you, and I thought you got totally jobbed in Gainesville.
Who would have thought we'd see the Ryan Perrilloux to Mit Cole touchdown pass combination? I predicted it, but I can't find the link. Sorry.
We played the whole game without starters Marlon Favorite and Darry Beckwith, who should be back next week, and we'll need them. BenJarvis Green-Ellis is a fine running back for Ole Miss, and of course there's a certain former Heisman candidate waiting for us the day after Thanksgiving. We've been a little vulnerable to power running backs in the middle of the field this year, and we will have to be at our best in those games.
It appeared to me that about midway through the second quarter, the coaches realized that there was no way La Tech could match our athleticism, so they started using the speed guys a lot more and we started pulling away. Of course, speed-demon Jacob Hester got into the act with the longest touchdown run he ever imagined himself making (87 yards). I seem to recall Dalton Hilliard having a 90+ yard touchdown run at some point in his career, but other than that Hester's run is the longest in my memory.
Brandon Lafell and Terrance Toliver had big games as well. In particular, it's great to see Lafell be a solid contributor. With his good games in the last two weeks, maybe he's ready to be our #2 receiver again. The kid is a solid player, who just had a case of the drops. Richard Murphy had a great run that he almost stuck into the end zone. Trindon Holliday and Keiland Williams had more touches than usual. In all, it was a chance to showcase some future talent, even on the offensive line, where Joe Barksdale and others got into the action early. On defense, we saw an awful lot of Chad Jones, Drake Nevis, and Jacob Cutrera, all guys who figure to be major players next year and the year after.
I think that Murphy kid in particular looks like he's going to be an exciting player. It's very telling that he's gotten into some big games late in the action, such as against Auburn and Kentucky. For whatever reason, when the game is on the line and they need a speed back, they got to Murphy rather than to Keiland.
If you're wondering why I haven't focused much attention to arguing who should be #1 and who should be in the BCS, it's a simple matter of keeping in mind that there is still a lot more season to play. We have three more games to play, against Ole Miss on the road, against Arkansas at home, and against Georgia/Tennessee/Florida on a neutral site. All of these games are loseable, and I don't want to get caught up in arguing who's better between LSU and Oregon or between Oregon and Kansas when there's still plenty of football left to be played before people really have to make that decision. How many teams have vehemently defended their lofty rankings only to subsequently lose a game they probably should have won? Michigan. USC. Us! Ohio State. Cal. The other USC. Wisconsin. Oklahoma. It may be November, but there's still a lot of football left to go here.
In the coming days, we'll go around the SEC and discuss the fact that the conference now has 10 bowl eligible teams. And if you want to know who the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week is, check out the box score of the Florida-South Carolina game.
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Halftime Blogging
If you're looking for a place to watch the game on the internet, here it is.
I kind of half expected at the beginning of the season that LSU would enter the Arkansas game already having clinched the SEC West. I could never have guessed we would enter the Louisiana Tech game, two whole weeks and one whole game before Arkansas, already knowing we're in the SEC Championship Game. And yet, here we are.
We've already accomplished goal #1 of this season, which was to get in a position to play for the conference title. That is done. Other goals are in reach as well. We can still, of course, reach other goals.
This game is 27-7, and while we aren't playing great, it's pretty clear who's winning this one.
I kind of half expected at the beginning of the season that LSU would enter the Arkansas game already having clinched the SEC West. I could never have guessed we would enter the Louisiana Tech game, two whole weeks and one whole game before Arkansas, already knowing we're in the SEC Championship Game. And yet, here we are.
We've already accomplished goal #1 of this season, which was to get in a position to play for the conference title. That is done. Other goals are in reach as well. We can still, of course, reach other goals.
This game is 27-7, and while we aren't playing great, it's pretty clear who's winning this one.
Game Day: La Tech
I may regret saying this later, but right now I just don't care that much about the LSU game. I just don't expect it to be a competitive game, and it's not on television. As such, I just can't get hyped up for it. I'm more hyped up for the rest of the SEC slate.
What I look for with LSU is for us to build a lead early, and to get our best players out. We have two, and probably three, more SEC games left, and there's no such thing as an easy SEC game this year. Not even against Ole Miss. Just ask Florida and Bama. Ole Miss pushed those guys to the buzzer, and they in turn pushed us to the buzzer. If we can shorten this week and get our guys mentally and physically rested for the final stretch, I will be very happy about it.
If we have to take a competitive game into the 4th quarter of this one, I will not be happy about it.
Anyway, here's my schedule for the day:
Now to 11:30am: Errands, and work around the house. Possibly an excursion to the library as well.
11:30am - 2:30pm: Bama vs. Mississippi State, Lincoln-Financial. If Sly Croom can get his team to 7 wins, I say he is the SEC Coach of the Year. That won't be easy, but it's not impossible either. He has a decent team, and he isn't completely overmatched talent-wise in any remaining game. He'll even be favored against Ole Miss. The problem is that he's an underdog here, and will be again next week. What I said weeks ago remains true here. I expect MSU to be competitive in its games, but its lack of big play ability will make it very hard for MSU to actually win. It's hard to put together 10-12 play drives time after time, and MSU isn't a team that can go 80 yards in 4 plays. They just don't have the speed or the passing ability. Bama has that speed and that passing ability, and they have the firepower to get quick scores at times. Plus, they'll be highly motivated to avenge their loss last year.
2:30pm - 6:00pm: Auburn at Georgia, CBS. These teams are very evenly matched, and this is a 50-50 game. I'm really interested, as always, in seeing whether Matt Stafford can be productive against a good defense. Sometimes he's lousy, and sometimes he's awesome, and that usually makes the difference between a win and a loss for Georgia. Georgia does a lot of its passing on play action, which means that they need to establish the run to pass. So the matchup to watch here is the Georgia offense against the Auburn defense. Those are the two best units on the field, and that matchup should decide this game.
6:00pm - 7:00pm: Chill out for a while. Maybe grab a bite to eat.
7:00pm - 11:00pm: I'm going to try to find LSU on internet radio. If I can do that, I'll listen to that while watching Florida against South Carolina on ESPN. If not, I'll just watch ESPN. Florida and South Carolina is the less interesting of the 3 television games to me. It simply comes down to whether or not South Carolina can rebound. If not, forget it. If so, this will be a good game. Of course, this game could be a big game in the standings, and could be the deciding factor for whether or not Florida goes to the SEC Championship Game.
It will be a good day, and we'll know a lot more about the SEC East at the end of the day.
What I look for with LSU is for us to build a lead early, and to get our best players out. We have two, and probably three, more SEC games left, and there's no such thing as an easy SEC game this year. Not even against Ole Miss. Just ask Florida and Bama. Ole Miss pushed those guys to the buzzer, and they in turn pushed us to the buzzer. If we can shorten this week and get our guys mentally and physically rested for the final stretch, I will be very happy about it.
If we have to take a competitive game into the 4th quarter of this one, I will not be happy about it.
Anyway, here's my schedule for the day:
Now to 11:30am: Errands, and work around the house. Possibly an excursion to the library as well.
11:30am - 2:30pm: Bama vs. Mississippi State, Lincoln-Financial. If Sly Croom can get his team to 7 wins, I say he is the SEC Coach of the Year. That won't be easy, but it's not impossible either. He has a decent team, and he isn't completely overmatched talent-wise in any remaining game. He'll even be favored against Ole Miss. The problem is that he's an underdog here, and will be again next week. What I said weeks ago remains true here. I expect MSU to be competitive in its games, but its lack of big play ability will make it very hard for MSU to actually win. It's hard to put together 10-12 play drives time after time, and MSU isn't a team that can go 80 yards in 4 plays. They just don't have the speed or the passing ability. Bama has that speed and that passing ability, and they have the firepower to get quick scores at times. Plus, they'll be highly motivated to avenge their loss last year.
2:30pm - 6:00pm: Auburn at Georgia, CBS. These teams are very evenly matched, and this is a 50-50 game. I'm really interested, as always, in seeing whether Matt Stafford can be productive against a good defense. Sometimes he's lousy, and sometimes he's awesome, and that usually makes the difference between a win and a loss for Georgia. Georgia does a lot of its passing on play action, which means that they need to establish the run to pass. So the matchup to watch here is the Georgia offense against the Auburn defense. Those are the two best units on the field, and that matchup should decide this game.
6:00pm - 7:00pm: Chill out for a while. Maybe grab a bite to eat.
7:00pm - 11:00pm: I'm going to try to find LSU on internet radio. If I can do that, I'll listen to that while watching Florida against South Carolina on ESPN. If not, I'll just watch ESPN. Florida and South Carolina is the less interesting of the 3 television games to me. It simply comes down to whether or not South Carolina can rebound. If not, forget it. If so, this will be a good game. Of course, this game could be a big game in the standings, and could be the deciding factor for whether or not Florida goes to the SEC Championship Game.
It will be a good day, and we'll know a lot more about the SEC East at the end of the day.
Friday, November 9, 2007
La Tech kills the buzz
I got nothing. This LaTech team just doesn't inspire me. At all. To write ANYTHING.
I just don't know anything about this team. I know that statistically, they're balanced. They're neither a heavy passing nor a heavy running team. Their QB has a fairly low yards/attempt number and has a 9/7 touchdown-interception ratio. That's not particularly good. They run two running backs, Patrick Jackson and Daniel Porter, and that's where they score most of their points. When their running backs get the ball, they're averaging about 5.5 yards per rush, which I suppose makes them more of a running team than a passing team.
There is the story of former Saban assistant coach Derek Dooley returning to LSU. He is, in case you did not know, the son of legendary Georgia coach Vince Dooley, and is quickly moving up the coaching ranks. He's had a tough first year, sitting now at 4-5, with 2 losses to currently ranked teams, and another loss to Boise State. That's a tough schedule to take a struggling team into.
It is my hope that Dooley will be able to convince Louisiana kids that LSU does not want or have room for to stay in-state and give LaTech a go. He's already having some success doing this, as a very good recruit last year, Rolando Melancon, who played a position where LSU ended up stacked (DT) eschewed Tennessee to go to LaTech. He was a very solid, SEC-level recruit that would have gotten an LSU offer in most other years, but couldn't get one last year because it was a big year for defensive linemen in the state. He is now at LaTech, and he could be a rebuilding cog for this team.
I'm torn between my loyalty to SEC schools and my loyalty to Louisiana schools. I'd like to see the Louisiana schools do well, but I also do not want to see SEC talent diluted, and Louisiana puts a good number of players into SEC schools other than LSU. Ole Miss is particularly popular for these players. I have no particularly hate for Ole Miss, and don't want to see them fall into oblivion. I also don't want to see either Ole Miss or LaTech start really challenging LSU for the top Louisiana recruits.
So, I'm torn. All I know for sure, I guess, is that I really want LSU to win this week and win pretty big. It's not a meaningful game within the SEC, but if LSU is going to play for the national championship it will help to get the dreaded "style points", which I absolutely hate, by the way. I do believe that great teams blow people out, but I don't need to see razzle-dazzle, Heisman-pose plays in order to do it. I want all the things I usually want when we're playing a badly overmatched opponent:
I just don't know anything about this team. I know that statistically, they're balanced. They're neither a heavy passing nor a heavy running team. Their QB has a fairly low yards/attempt number and has a 9/7 touchdown-interception ratio. That's not particularly good. They run two running backs, Patrick Jackson and Daniel Porter, and that's where they score most of their points. When their running backs get the ball, they're averaging about 5.5 yards per rush, which I suppose makes them more of a running team than a passing team.
There is the story of former Saban assistant coach Derek Dooley returning to LSU. He is, in case you did not know, the son of legendary Georgia coach Vince Dooley, and is quickly moving up the coaching ranks. He's had a tough first year, sitting now at 4-5, with 2 losses to currently ranked teams, and another loss to Boise State. That's a tough schedule to take a struggling team into.
It is my hope that Dooley will be able to convince Louisiana kids that LSU does not want or have room for to stay in-state and give LaTech a go. He's already having some success doing this, as a very good recruit last year, Rolando Melancon, who played a position where LSU ended up stacked (DT) eschewed Tennessee to go to LaTech. He was a very solid, SEC-level recruit that would have gotten an LSU offer in most other years, but couldn't get one last year because it was a big year for defensive linemen in the state. He is now at LaTech, and he could be a rebuilding cog for this team.
I'm torn between my loyalty to SEC schools and my loyalty to Louisiana schools. I'd like to see the Louisiana schools do well, but I also do not want to see SEC talent diluted, and Louisiana puts a good number of players into SEC schools other than LSU. Ole Miss is particularly popular for these players. I have no particularly hate for Ole Miss, and don't want to see them fall into oblivion. I also don't want to see either Ole Miss or LaTech start really challenging LSU for the top Louisiana recruits.
So, I'm torn. All I know for sure, I guess, is that I really want LSU to win this week and win pretty big. It's not a meaningful game within the SEC, but if LSU is going to play for the national championship it will help to get the dreaded "style points", which I absolutely hate, by the way. I do believe that great teams blow people out, but I don't need to see razzle-dazzle, Heisman-pose plays in order to do it. I want all the things I usually want when we're playing a badly overmatched opponent:
- Quick separation on the scoreboard
- Get the key players out early to shorten the season and avoid injuries
- Get young players in the game to get them experience that will be valuable in teh coming seasons.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
SEC Preview - Week 11
After a week or two of less-than-fascinating weeks in the SEC (still, those weeks had important things happen), this week we are back to the SEC being a 12-team dogfight. There are five SEC games this week, and although LSU is not a combatant in any of them, it will still be a big week in the SEC.
Literally every one of the 5 SEC games this week features two teams playing for something tangible. Some are playing for a shot at going to the SEC Championship Game (Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida). Some are playing just to improve bowl position (Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Bama, Arkansas). Some are fighting to reach bowl-eligibility (Vandy, MSU). Only Ole Miss is relegated to playing for pride, and they're off this week. This is another one of those good weeks where pretty good matchups aren't on regular television.
Bama at Mississippi State, 11:30am Lincoln-Financial Sports. This game is only being broadcast around half of the SEC territory, plus on GamePlan, because of LF's plan to do split-coverage this week. It's one of those weeks where I really wish ESPN would have picked up two of our games, and I'm not sure why they didn't.
Anyway, like a lot of MSU's games, this is a classic tortoise-hare matchup. MSU brings its basic but effective offensive scheme of running Anthony Dixon left, right, and middle while mixing in the occasional pass to this game, while Bama brings its powerful passing attack and big play ability. All of Mississippi State's big plays come on defense, and they tend to win by getting a lot of turnovers and playing with a lead. Bama, though not a great team, has done a very good job of avoiding turnovers. Can MSU win? Absolutely they can, but it could just as easily be a blowout in Bama's favor (and by "blowout", I mean a 2-touchdown or more victory).
What's at stake: MSU is playing for a chance at a bowl game. They are sitting at 5 wins, and I think to really lock up a bowl game, you need 7 this year. MSU gets Ole Miss and Arky to close out the season, and they need two wins. It will be very tough, but not impossible, if they don't get one here. Bama is sitting at 6 wins, so they're looking to lock up a bowl game and still have a realistic chance at a pretty decent bowl game like the Cotton, Peach (refuse to call it Chick-Fil-A), or one of the Florida bowls. They get UL-Monroe next week, so they aren't exactly in danger of failing to get to 7 wins, but this game will mean a lot for their bowl position.
Arkansas at Tennessee, 11:30 Lincoln-Financial. Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure I won't have a chance to see this game, and that's too bad. We have two teams with a combined 12-6 record, one of whom still has a chance to win the conference, and it's not going to broadcast even all around the South? Where is ESPN on this?
I think Tennessee is in big trouble here. Their defense is not strong, and Arkansas looks to be resurgent, with their 450-something yards of rushing last week and the return of Marcus Monk. Tennessee will have to play the best defensive game of its season to hold Arkansas to under, say, 4 touchdowns. The good news for Tennessee is that the Arkansas defense was absolutely abused by Bama's passing game earlier this season, and Tennessee's passing is just as good if not better. Even Blake Mitchell passed for 364 yards and made 51 attempts without an interception. This could be a high-scoring shootout.
What's at stake: Tennessee controls its destiny to get to the SEC Championship Game, which means they still have a realistic chance at winning the conference and going to a BCS Bowl. They could also conceivably collapse down the stretch and miss a bowl game entirely. They do not have a rent-a-win left on the schedule and they are sitting at 6 wins. Without beating either Arkansas, Vandy, or Kentucky, they could miss out on bowl-season all together.
Arkansas is in similar position, except that they have no chance at the SEC Championship. They could still end up at a New Year's Bowl though, and it starts with a win here. If there is a loss here, they're looking at a reasonable chance of staying home. They close out the season with games against MSU and LSU. Nothing will be easy for them, but their win against South Carolina last week resurrected their season. They need to keep it going if they want to go bowling.
Kentucky at Vandy, 1:00 GamePlan. Kentucky is reeling, and Vandy is coming off a blowout loss to Florida. Three weeks ago, Kentucky had beaten LSU and was looking like a real threat to win the conference. Now, they have lost two in a row and they're out of the race. Vandy has been an enigma as well. Kentucky still has its powerful offense, though it certainly laid an egg in its last game against MSU. Kentucky's too powerful on offense to let Vandy beat them unless they make the kinds of mistakes they made against Mississippi State. Vandy just isn't athletic enough to stay with them. But of course, they did make those mistakes against MSU and there's no reason it's impossible to believe it will happen again. Vandy, like MSU, is good enough to take advantage of Kentucky mistakes to steal a win.
What's at stake: Kentucky needs a win to ensure a bowl game, and they close out the season against ranked teams Georgia and Tennessee. If they're going to a bowl game, they NEED to win this game. They can't finish the season with 6 wins and a five game losing streak and hope to get an invite. This is a team with a season on the verge of collapse, but they could still salvage it and set themselves up for something nice. If they win here, they develop the confidence necessary to have a realistic shot at a split of the final two games, and they'd be looking at a nice bowl game. Lose here, and the downward spiral continues, ending possibly in oblivion.
Vandy is playing for bowl-eligibility, and they still have a shot to pick up another win down the stretch in games against Tennessee and Wake Forest. Seven wins is not out of the question for them, but I think they need to start here if they are to get it. They may be playing for a chance to go to the I-Bowl at this point, or the Liberty Bowl, but any bowl for Vandy is a big season.
Auburn at Georgia, 2:30pm CBS. This is a HUGE game, and a good matchup. Both of these teams, if they win out, have a realistic shot at a BCS bowl game, and Georgia could still win the SEC if they catch a break from Tennessee. Georgia is an interesting team that sometimes looks awful (vs. Tennessee) and sometimes looks like a borderline great team (vs. Florida). Knowshon Moreno is a huge find at running back, and he's likely to be an All-SEC selection at this point despite being only a redshirt freshman. Auburn, of course, has recovered from their slow start to the season to become a very formidable team, solid in all phases. It's on national television and you better believe I'll be watching.
What's at stake: well, like I mentioned, a potential BCS-bowl for the winner and a chance for the conference championship for Georgia. The winner has a chance for a season most anyone would consider an unambiguous success. The loser will be looking pretty far down the bowl-ladder. Both teams have bowl games locked up at this point, but either team could end up in the I-Bowl or the Music City Bowl if they finish the season weak.
Florida at South Carolina, 6:45pm ESPN. South Carolina is reeling, and Florida is Florida. South Carolina, like Kentucky, looked so very good until mid-October, but a 3 game losing streak has killed their chances at a conference championship, and probably has all but destroyed their chance for a New Year's Day bowl. A few weeks ago, I would have told you this was an even-money game. Now, it clearly isn't. But South Carolina is just as talented as they were a month ago, and they still have a very good running game, a decent passing game, and a tough defense. I don't know why they're struggling so much right now, but if they're going to pull out of it, they need to do it now. Florida, of course, has a mismatch whenever they let their QB run, but he hasn't been strictly healthy. Florida with an unhealthy Tim Tebow is a pretty ordinary team (good enough to crush Vandy though).
What's at stake: Florida still has a realistic chance at playing for the SEC Championship. They just need to win this game and hope Georgia and Tennessee lose a game down the stretch. The East could conceivably be decided this week, then. Florida is sitting at 6 wins, but they finish the season with Florida Atlantic and Florida State. Even with a loss here, they are going to reach at least 7 wins, and probably 8, so they aren't really playing for a bowl game here. But they are definitely playing for bowl position. A BCS game is still in reach, either automatic or at-large if they miss the SECCG. USC is playing for a bowl game and to resurrect their season. With a win here, they would spoil Florida's dreams of winning the conference, and they would give themselves a real shot at getting to 8 wins and a very nice bowl. With a loss here, and a loss to Clemson two weeks from now, they probably stay home with a 5 game losing streak.
Literally every one of the 5 SEC games this week features two teams playing for something tangible. Some are playing for a shot at going to the SEC Championship Game (Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida). Some are playing just to improve bowl position (Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Bama, Arkansas). Some are fighting to reach bowl-eligibility (Vandy, MSU). Only Ole Miss is relegated to playing for pride, and they're off this week. This is another one of those good weeks where pretty good matchups aren't on regular television.
Bama at Mississippi State, 11:30am Lincoln-Financial Sports. This game is only being broadcast around half of the SEC territory, plus on GamePlan, because of LF's plan to do split-coverage this week. It's one of those weeks where I really wish ESPN would have picked up two of our games, and I'm not sure why they didn't.
Anyway, like a lot of MSU's games, this is a classic tortoise-hare matchup. MSU brings its basic but effective offensive scheme of running Anthony Dixon left, right, and middle while mixing in the occasional pass to this game, while Bama brings its powerful passing attack and big play ability. All of Mississippi State's big plays come on defense, and they tend to win by getting a lot of turnovers and playing with a lead. Bama, though not a great team, has done a very good job of avoiding turnovers. Can MSU win? Absolutely they can, but it could just as easily be a blowout in Bama's favor (and by "blowout", I mean a 2-touchdown or more victory).
What's at stake: MSU is playing for a chance at a bowl game. They are sitting at 5 wins, and I think to really lock up a bowl game, you need 7 this year. MSU gets Ole Miss and Arky to close out the season, and they need two wins. It will be very tough, but not impossible, if they don't get one here. Bama is sitting at 6 wins, so they're looking to lock up a bowl game and still have a realistic chance at a pretty decent bowl game like the Cotton, Peach (refuse to call it Chick-Fil-A), or one of the Florida bowls. They get UL-Monroe next week, so they aren't exactly in danger of failing to get to 7 wins, but this game will mean a lot for their bowl position.
Arkansas at Tennessee, 11:30 Lincoln-Financial. Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure I won't have a chance to see this game, and that's too bad. We have two teams with a combined 12-6 record, one of whom still has a chance to win the conference, and it's not going to broadcast even all around the South? Where is ESPN on this?
I think Tennessee is in big trouble here. Their defense is not strong, and Arkansas looks to be resurgent, with their 450-something yards of rushing last week and the return of Marcus Monk. Tennessee will have to play the best defensive game of its season to hold Arkansas to under, say, 4 touchdowns. The good news for Tennessee is that the Arkansas defense was absolutely abused by Bama's passing game earlier this season, and Tennessee's passing is just as good if not better. Even Blake Mitchell passed for 364 yards and made 51 attempts without an interception. This could be a high-scoring shootout.
What's at stake: Tennessee controls its destiny to get to the SEC Championship Game, which means they still have a realistic chance at winning the conference and going to a BCS Bowl. They could also conceivably collapse down the stretch and miss a bowl game entirely. They do not have a rent-a-win left on the schedule and they are sitting at 6 wins. Without beating either Arkansas, Vandy, or Kentucky, they could miss out on bowl-season all together.
Arkansas is in similar position, except that they have no chance at the SEC Championship. They could still end up at a New Year's Bowl though, and it starts with a win here. If there is a loss here, they're looking at a reasonable chance of staying home. They close out the season with games against MSU and LSU. Nothing will be easy for them, but their win against South Carolina last week resurrected their season. They need to keep it going if they want to go bowling.
Kentucky at Vandy, 1:00 GamePlan. Kentucky is reeling, and Vandy is coming off a blowout loss to Florida. Three weeks ago, Kentucky had beaten LSU and was looking like a real threat to win the conference. Now, they have lost two in a row and they're out of the race. Vandy has been an enigma as well. Kentucky still has its powerful offense, though it certainly laid an egg in its last game against MSU. Kentucky's too powerful on offense to let Vandy beat them unless they make the kinds of mistakes they made against Mississippi State. Vandy just isn't athletic enough to stay with them. But of course, they did make those mistakes against MSU and there's no reason it's impossible to believe it will happen again. Vandy, like MSU, is good enough to take advantage of Kentucky mistakes to steal a win.
What's at stake: Kentucky needs a win to ensure a bowl game, and they close out the season against ranked teams Georgia and Tennessee. If they're going to a bowl game, they NEED to win this game. They can't finish the season with 6 wins and a five game losing streak and hope to get an invite. This is a team with a season on the verge of collapse, but they could still salvage it and set themselves up for something nice. If they win here, they develop the confidence necessary to have a realistic shot at a split of the final two games, and they'd be looking at a nice bowl game. Lose here, and the downward spiral continues, ending possibly in oblivion.
Vandy is playing for bowl-eligibility, and they still have a shot to pick up another win down the stretch in games against Tennessee and Wake Forest. Seven wins is not out of the question for them, but I think they need to start here if they are to get it. They may be playing for a chance to go to the I-Bowl at this point, or the Liberty Bowl, but any bowl for Vandy is a big season.
Auburn at Georgia, 2:30pm CBS. This is a HUGE game, and a good matchup. Both of these teams, if they win out, have a realistic shot at a BCS bowl game, and Georgia could still win the SEC if they catch a break from Tennessee. Georgia is an interesting team that sometimes looks awful (vs. Tennessee) and sometimes looks like a borderline great team (vs. Florida). Knowshon Moreno is a huge find at running back, and he's likely to be an All-SEC selection at this point despite being only a redshirt freshman. Auburn, of course, has recovered from their slow start to the season to become a very formidable team, solid in all phases. It's on national television and you better believe I'll be watching.
What's at stake: well, like I mentioned, a potential BCS-bowl for the winner and a chance for the conference championship for Georgia. The winner has a chance for a season most anyone would consider an unambiguous success. The loser will be looking pretty far down the bowl-ladder. Both teams have bowl games locked up at this point, but either team could end up in the I-Bowl or the Music City Bowl if they finish the season weak.
Florida at South Carolina, 6:45pm ESPN. South Carolina is reeling, and Florida is Florida. South Carolina, like Kentucky, looked so very good until mid-October, but a 3 game losing streak has killed their chances at a conference championship, and probably has all but destroyed their chance for a New Year's Day bowl. A few weeks ago, I would have told you this was an even-money game. Now, it clearly isn't. But South Carolina is just as talented as they were a month ago, and they still have a very good running game, a decent passing game, and a tough defense. I don't know why they're struggling so much right now, but if they're going to pull out of it, they need to do it now. Florida, of course, has a mismatch whenever they let their QB run, but he hasn't been strictly healthy. Florida with an unhealthy Tim Tebow is a pretty ordinary team (good enough to crush Vandy though).
What's at stake: Florida still has a realistic chance at playing for the SEC Championship. They just need to win this game and hope Georgia and Tennessee lose a game down the stretch. The East could conceivably be decided this week, then. Florida is sitting at 6 wins, but they finish the season with Florida Atlantic and Florida State. Even with a loss here, they are going to reach at least 7 wins, and probably 8, so they aren't really playing for a bowl game here. But they are definitely playing for bowl position. A BCS game is still in reach, either automatic or at-large if they miss the SECCG. USC is playing for a bowl game and to resurrect their season. With a win here, they would spoil Florida's dreams of winning the conference, and they would give themselves a real shot at getting to 8 wins and a very nice bowl. With a loss here, and a loss to Clemson two weeks from now, they probably stay home with a 5 game losing streak.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Not So Much to Say Today
I don't really have much to say today because it's too early in the week for a preview of the week in the SEC, and the opponent this week doesn't really work very well as a muse, so I'll talk a bit about next year.
If Ryan Perrilloux is back next year and is our starting QB, I think we're a top 5 preseason team (yes, I know my stance on preseason rankings). I think our offense will be extremely strong, returning 4 offensive linemen, all those explosive running backs, and all those receivers except Doucet. The receivers will have another year of development, which I think will help Toliver and Lafell especially. I do expect Lafell to end up as a very good receiver, possibly by the end of this year. He just has to get his head around the drops issue.
Our defense should be strong as well, with the defensive line again leading the way. Sure, we lose Dorsey, but we get back Jean-Francois, and we may return Kirston Pittman as well. Charles Alexander will be back from injury, and Marlon Favorite, Drake Nevis (watch this kid!), and Al Woods will be there as well. Beckwith will be a rock at linebacker again, and I have a lot of faith in the backup linebackers to step up strong next year. I have no doubt that Chad Jones will replace Craig Steltz and that there will be no drop-off (and eventually, he'll be an upgrade). Stefoin Francois, serving out a redshirt year now, will also start producing for us, and he looks like he's going to be a great one eventually.
The only real question is at corner, where we will be very inexperienced. We have a lot of athleticism there, and there are rumors of us being very close to a 5-star commitment at that position (maybe two). Plus, I am not going to judge Jai Eugene by his tough game against Kentucky. He has admitted he was unprepared for that game, and has learned his lesson. With him and Chris Hawkins (who has looked nothing but good when he's gotten into the game) there, and with newcomers John Williams and Ron Brooks also competing for spots, I am confident we'll find people who can play, though I acknowledge that we probably will have to protect the corners a little more than we do this year.
Of course, this is all dependent on not losing a lot of juniors. I pretty much expect Tyson Jackson to go, despite his somewhat quieter than expected year. Others could go, however. Believe it or not, Ciron Black is eligible to declare if he wants, even though he is only a sophomore, because he redshirted his first year. Brett Helms could leave. Darry Beckwith, Marlon Favorite, and Curtis Taylor could leave. I think Keiland Williams can leave, but I'm not sure about that.*
Of course, I'm doubtful that Curtis Taylor or Keiland Williams would go pro at this point, but I'm giving the worst-case scenario.
The real question mark will be special teams again. That phase is easily the weakest part of the team this year. Here are our problems:
Without Perrilloux, I think we go from top 5 to the back half of the top 10, but we'll still likely be odds-on favorites in the West.
*I don't really want to argue whether or not Keiland is eligible to go pro. It's been argued to death, and it's never argued productively because no one really knows the answer. It all depends on how the NFL interprets the rule about being eligible "three years after your high school class graduates) and how Keiland's high school timeline is interpreted. Let's just say he spent more than 4 years in high school. I think it's a moot point given Keiland's modest productivity this year, and there's really no point in really getting into it unless he actually makes noise about trying to declare.
If Ryan Perrilloux is back next year and is our starting QB, I think we're a top 5 preseason team (yes, I know my stance on preseason rankings). I think our offense will be extremely strong, returning 4 offensive linemen, all those explosive running backs, and all those receivers except Doucet. The receivers will have another year of development, which I think will help Toliver and Lafell especially. I do expect Lafell to end up as a very good receiver, possibly by the end of this year. He just has to get his head around the drops issue.
Our defense should be strong as well, with the defensive line again leading the way. Sure, we lose Dorsey, but we get back Jean-Francois, and we may return Kirston Pittman as well. Charles Alexander will be back from injury, and Marlon Favorite, Drake Nevis (watch this kid!), and Al Woods will be there as well. Beckwith will be a rock at linebacker again, and I have a lot of faith in the backup linebackers to step up strong next year. I have no doubt that Chad Jones will replace Craig Steltz and that there will be no drop-off (and eventually, he'll be an upgrade). Stefoin Francois, serving out a redshirt year now, will also start producing for us, and he looks like he's going to be a great one eventually.
The only real question is at corner, where we will be very inexperienced. We have a lot of athleticism there, and there are rumors of us being very close to a 5-star commitment at that position (maybe two). Plus, I am not going to judge Jai Eugene by his tough game against Kentucky. He has admitted he was unprepared for that game, and has learned his lesson. With him and Chris Hawkins (who has looked nothing but good when he's gotten into the game) there, and with newcomers John Williams and Ron Brooks also competing for spots, I am confident we'll find people who can play, though I acknowledge that we probably will have to protect the corners a little more than we do this year.
Of course, this is all dependent on not losing a lot of juniors. I pretty much expect Tyson Jackson to go, despite his somewhat quieter than expected year. Others could go, however. Believe it or not, Ciron Black is eligible to declare if he wants, even though he is only a sophomore, because he redshirted his first year. Brett Helms could leave. Darry Beckwith, Marlon Favorite, and Curtis Taylor could leave. I think Keiland Williams can leave, but I'm not sure about that.*
Of course, I'm doubtful that Curtis Taylor or Keiland Williams would go pro at this point, but I'm giving the worst-case scenario.
The real question mark will be special teams again. That phase is easily the weakest part of the team this year. Here are our problems:
- No returns for touchdowns all year
- No kickoffs into the end zone all year
- Unreliable field goal kicking all year
- Inconsistent punt and kick coverage
- No blocks, either in punts or field goals
- A blocked field goal against us
Without Perrilloux, I think we go from top 5 to the back half of the top 10, but we'll still likely be odds-on favorites in the West.
*I don't really want to argue whether or not Keiland is eligible to go pro. It's been argued to death, and it's never argued productively because no one really knows the answer. It all depends on how the NFL interprets the rule about being eligible "three years after your high school class graduates) and how Keiland's high school timeline is interpreted. Let's just say he spent more than 4 years in high school. I think it's a moot point given Keiland's modest productivity this year, and there's really no point in really getting into it unless he actually makes noise about trying to declare.
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