SEC Preview - Week 13

I apologize for not updating yesterday. I got on the road very early in the morning and I did not have time to update. Once I was finally able to sit down at the computer for a while, it was late afternoon and I just decided to wait until now to update.

It's a tired refrain, but this is another big week here in SEC country. There are a few big out-of-conference games this week, rivalry games, and games where the teams are playing for quite a lot. Let's get down to business.

The Egg Bowl, Mississippi at Mississippi State, 11:30AM Friday. For once, the Egg Bowl may not be the only bowl game for one of these two teams. Mississippi State sits at 6 wins, bowl eligible but not guaranteed a bowl game. A win here will make them very attractive for a lower-tier bowl committee, and they may yet sneak into the Cotton Bowl if they get some breaks along the way. As for the game, MSU is clearly not the team that started the season. They are now primed and ready to play. They proved last week they can pass (if you don't play defense against them), and they proved in previous weeks that they can run the ball, force turnovers, and make big defensive plays. Ole Miss is not a great team by any stretch, but they are better than their 0-7 record. It is simply Ole Miss's misfortune that the rest of the SEC is so strong this year. In previous years, this Ole Miss squad probably would have gotten a couple wins. Ole Miss showed last week that when Brent Schaeffer is playing well, they can be very dangerous.As it is, they are certainly capable of winning this one and ruining MSU's season. With a loss here, MSU may not get its bowl game. It still might, but it's not definite.

Note the start time of this game. It's starting Friday morning. Bama will probably be keeping one eye on the score of this one, because this game may decide their bowl fate.

Arkansas at LSU, 1:30pm Friday, for The Boot. I haven't really previewed this game yet because of distractions and travel. Allow me to rectify that. Let me just say that Arkansas has a TERRIBLE pass defense. Just terrible. MSU, a team that can hardly pass at all, torched them for 421 yards and 4 touchdown passes. Bama had 327 yards passing against them. South Carolina had 364. Hopefully, someone told Miles and Crowton that this team is vulnerable to the pass.

I think this is a game in which it would be a mistake to be so heavily reliant on Jacob Hester. I think Hester's an excellent player, but this Arkansas team is vulnerable to big plays, and we should take advantage by leaning more heavily on our speed backs and our passing game. This is not to suggest shelving Hester, but simply that we should not use him as heavily.

Of course, the big threat with Arkansas is their running game. We all know about Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. They are simply the best one-two combination of running backs in recent SEC memory. McFadden is probably the best running back in the SEC since Bo Jackson. Our defense will have to be focused on stopping those two.

Teams have had a certain amount of success at that this season. While each has over 1000 yards of rushing, and McFadden has more than 1500, McFadden has been held under 100 yards rushing 3 times this season. Jones was held under 100 yards 3 times before he got hurt against Tennessee. The strange thing is that Arkansas is 2-1 in games where McFadden is held to under 100 yards rushing; is 4-3 in games where McFadden gets between 100 and 300 yards rushing; and is 1-0 in games where McFadden goes for over 300. McFadden's individual success does not seem to significantly contribute to wins. I don't know what to make of that, but I'd rather take my chances by stopping McFadden.

Last year, Casey Dick had a terrible game passing and all but gave us the game gift wrapped with a bow. This year, Dick is coming off probably the best game of his career heading into this one. He was 14 of 17 with 4 touchdown passes and no interceptions last week in a win against MSU, but looking at his stats on the season, this appears to be an exception. He has thrown for over 200 only once this season, and has thrown 9 interceptions to 17 touchdown passes. Before the last game, it was 9 interceptions to 13 touchdown passes, a very modest stat line. He is also not a QB who can hurt you with his legs.

Tennessee at Kentucky, 12:30 CBS Saturday. This is the other game of some considerable importance to us. I think we all know by now that this game will decide who LSU plays in the SEC Championship Game. If Tennessee wins, they're in. If Kentucky win, Georgia is in. I'd rather play Tennessee, personally. I think Georgia may well be the best team in the country right now. They remind me a lot of the 2001 LSU team that started very pedestrian, then ended the season as one of the best around. We don't want to go against that team if it can be avoided.

Kentucky is actually favored in this game, and I can see why. They have a great QB and good running backs and receivers. Tennessee has been very vulnerable on defense and does not get a lot of pressure on the QB. Plus, this game is in Kentucky, and Kentucky wants to end its LONG losing streak against Tennessee. This is of course the best Kentucky team in decades and if they're going to do it now is the time.

Tennessee, of course, can also do some things. Erik Ainge is quietly having an excellent season. In an ordinary season, one in which the SEC doesn't have two Heisman candidate quarterbacks, this kind of season would be good enough for 1st team All-SEC. Tennessee also has good running backs. Their defense, while not great, has been known to make big plays converting interceptions to touchdowns. I think this is a very even matchup.

Wake Forest at Vandy, 1:00pm Saturday, no television. Vandy tries to achieve bowl eligibility, but even if they make it, I think a bowl game is a long shot. Maybe they can sneak into a bowl that can't get a team from its conference tie-in. I don't know how all that works. I also don't know much about Wake Forest.

Georgia at Georgia Tech, 2:30pm Saturday ABC. Once again, this in-state rivalry pits two teams of vastly different quality. This series isn't LSU-Tulane yet, but it appears to be getting there. Georgia Tech is not a bad team though. They sit at 7-4, a reasonably good team in the ACC. They're just not Georgia. Georgia is one of the hottest teams in the country, and look like they can beat anybody right now. Georgia is not playing for conference positioning, but a win here will probably mean they go to a BCS bowl (if they don't go to the SEC Championship Game). A loss here may push them out of the BCS, and may mean the SEC gets only one BCS bid (but I doubt it).

Florida State at Florida, 4:00pm CBS Saturday. We all know about FSU's inconsistencies this year. We all also know about Florida's young talent. I really don't have much to say about this game other than that. Florida is playing probably for the Cap One Bowl, and wouldn't it be exciting if they got to play against Illinois?

Clemson at South Carolina, 6:00pm ESPN2 Saturday. South Carolina is playing for its bowl life. They were one of the first SEC teams to reach bowl-eligibility, and they remain one of two teams to beat Georgia on the year, but they are reeling. They haven't won a game since October 13. No bowl will want South Carolina at 6-6 if they lose this game. They will be on a 5 game losing streak. They don't travel particularly well. No one will be interested. If they want to go to a bowl game, they HAVE to win this game. It's hard to believe this team was in the top 10 in the country at midseason.

Bama at Auburn, 7:00pm ESPN Saturday. Talent-wise, I think these teams are roughly equal. The question is going to be, "Where is Bama psychologically?" Football is as much a psychological game as it is a physical game. Rumors are that after the UL-Monroe travesty, Bama players were out on the Strip in Tuscaloosa talking smack about each other and blaming the disappointing season on their coaches and teammates. Then, early this week, their coach gave the strangest press conference since Mike Gundy's rant earlier this season. He described the loss to UL-Monroe in almost apocalyptic terms, and according to my wife appeared to be about to challenge a reporter to a fight. He also put the blame squarely on his players, saying there was a "personality" problem on the Bama team. These are not good signs.

What's more, this team is not a lock to get to a bowl game with a loss here. They'll sit at 6-6, and we know that not all bowl-eligible teams will make a bowl game this year. The worst case scenario for Bama is that they lose while South Carolina and MSU win. Even worse would be if Vandy wins, giving the SEC another bowl-eligible teams and 9 teams with 7 or more wins. A 6-win Bama team with a 4 game losing streak is not a particularly attractive bowl team, with the one plus being that the Bama fans usually travel well.

Auburn is almost an afterthought right now, but that just means even more pressure is on them to win this one. You don't want to be the team that lost to the team that lost to ULM the week before. They're also playing for bowl position, and will almost certainly get a New Year's Day bowl if they win here. A loss here could send them to Shreveport.

Both teams are under a lot of pressure in this one. A Bama win takes some of the sting out of the loss to ULM and ends Auburn's 5 year winning streak in this series. It also embarrasses Auburn and sends them to a weak bowl. A Bama loss may end their season, and would definitely make this an unabashed failure of a season, and give them tons of negative momentum going into the offseason.

Around the SEC: Week 12

It was definitely an interesting week, more interesting than could have been anticipated I guess thanks to Bama's loss to ULM. For what it's worth, I take no pleasure in seeing Bama lose a game like that, but I am happy for my fellow Louisianians. And here are the results on the day:

Florida 59
Florida Atlantic 20

I don't have much to say about this. Florida beat up on an overmatched opponent to get to 8 wins. Tim Tebow put up gaudy stats again. Ho hum. Tebow won't be the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week, because that honor will go to a guy who put up numbers against SEC competition.

Georgia 24
Kentucky 13

Georgia may be the best team in the SEC right now. This is a very different team than we saw early in the season. Kentucky really did give Georgia its best shot and ultimately didn't really challenge for a win here. Kentucky outgained Georgia on the game, but turnovers and the return game killed Kentucky. Georgia did it basically without passing effectively, having only 99 yards passing on the game with two interceptions.

I did some figuring up yesterday, and here is how Georgia could still conceivably make it to the national championship game. They are currently sitting at 7th in the BCS, behind LSU, KU, Mizzou, West Virginia, Ohio State, and Arizona State. First, Georgia would have to win the SEC (in my opinion) after beating Georgia Tech next week. That would eliminate LSU. Oklahoma would have to win the Big 12. That would eliminate KU and Mizzou. Personally, I think they SHOULD be chosen over W. Virginia but that wouldn't happen unless the Mountaineers lose this coming week to Connecticut (I give Pittsburgh little chance to pull that upset the next week). Then, if Arizona State loses to USC, Georgia is suddenly the #2 team in the country behind Ohio State and is headed to New Orleans for the national championship game. It's unlikely, but I think not at all outside of the realm of possibility. In fact, the least likely part of it is probably their getting to the SEC Championship Game, because they would need for Kentucky to beat Tennessee for that to happen.

As for Kentucky, they're definitely going bowling this year. They sit at 7 wins, and right now three SEC teams are at 6. Those teams at 6 are not bowl safe right now, but it's looking more and more like the 7 teams with 7 wins or more are bowl safe. I won't pretend to know where they're going at this point though.

Arkansas 45
Mississippi State 31

I never thought I would say this, but this was a passing battle between Wesley Carroll and Casey Dick. Carroll had 421 yards passing with 4 touchdowns, but also 4 interceptions. Casey Dick was 14 of 17 with 199 yards and 4 touchdowns. I also thought I'd never say this, but Casey Dick with his efficient passing and 4 touchdowns without an interception is the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week.

This whole stat line sounds like it came from a parallel universe. Arkansas scored 45 points without McFadden getting 100 yards rushing? And Felix Jones didn't even play? MSU only got 80 yards rushing, but scored 4 touchdowns? It's insanity. I think I'm going to try to forget this game happened, because it blows my mind too much.

Arkansas is bowl safe, but MSU is sitting at 6, tied with South Carolina and Bama. Two of those teams will make it to a bowl game and one won't. I think MSU makes it to a bowl game even if they don't get to 7, because they're a great story. I could be wrong though, but they also have a good chance to beat Ole Miss and make it to 7 wins.

Tennessee 25
Vandy 24

If you were at a game somewhere and didn't keep up with this, it was just as close as the score, and Tennessee pulled it out by the skin of their teeth. They were losing from the middle of the second quarter until 2:46 to play in the game. In other words, they did their best LSU impersonation this time. They were behind by 15 when the 4th quarter started. Even when they took the lead, it wasn't safe because Vandy managed to get off a makable last-second field goal attempt, which would have won the game, but hit the upright instead. Tennessee got their furious comeback though, and keep their SEC title hopes alive. They get a tough Kentucky team next, a team that is coming off a tough few weeks.

Vandy appears to be out of bowl consideration at this point. A win next week against Wake Forest could make it interesting for them, but I think even with 6 wins, they'd be behind Bama and MSU, but I could be wrong.

UL-Monroe 21
Bama 14

OK, what is there to say about this game. I watched it on CSS's replay on channel 23 yesterday morning. At no time while watching this game did I think it was clear to an outside observer that Bama was supposed to be the stronger, faster, more athletic team. They seemed to play slow, like they just weren't any better than a Sun Belt conference team. The only time in the game it looked like Bama was the clearly better team was late in the game when everyone knew ULM would run the ball to run clock. When Bama knew what was coming, they had the manpower to get into the backfield and stop it. Otherwise, I didn't really see a David versus Goliath in this game.

I think Bama's defense played well. One of the touchdowns given up was on a drive of less than one yard. They gave up only 281 yards total. The offense got over 400 yards, but sure seemed to sputter when it counted, and gave up some very bad turnovers. I think it's unlikely you'll see Jimmy Johns carry the ball again this year, since he gave up what amounted to a game-ending fumble when he finally got the ball.

What does this mean? I'm not sure the Bama team can come back from this. They appeared to be a defeated team this past week, at least offensively. Football is as much psychological as it is physical, and psychologically this team looks like they're ready for the season to end. But it's not over. They have their biggest game of the season next week as they try to keep Auburn from getting 6 wins in a row over them. I've been wrong about a lot of things this year, as has everyone, but I don't see the fight in this team that it will take to win that game. Psychologically, they look down, and that goes for the players and the coaches. They look tired and beaten.

If Bama can't win this game coming up, do they go to a bowl game? I think they probably will. They travel well, and so the lower tier bowls will find them to be an attractive team to invite. They travel better than MSU, Vandy, and South Carolina. The thing working against them would be their late season collapse. Bowls are a little hesitant to invite teams that finish the season very weakly, but unless South Carolina wins next week, Bama will finish the season stronger than them. I think a 6 win Bama team gets an invite before a 6 win South Carolina team. I think given the storyline of Sylvester Croom, I think a 6-win MSU team gets invited over Bama though. The danger is if South Carolina wins next week and Bama does not. Even worse would be if MSU wins as well. If all those things happen, I believe the bowls are required to take a 7-win team over a 6-6 team, and Bama will be shut out of a bowl. I kind of doubt that happens, though. South Carolina has collapsed like no one else.

Coach Miles: We all know now that Carr's out. Everyone is saying it. However, everything I'm reading seems to suggest that Miles will not be their first choice. There's plenty of chatter that Carr does not like Miles, and that Carr will have a lot of say over who gets the job. What's more, even if they want Miles, he may not listen to them until the season is over, and Michigan wouldn't want to wait that long.

If I was a betting man, I would take an even money bet that Miles would be our coach for the 2008 season. Right now, I think it is much more likely than not that Miles will not be Michigan's next coach.

SEC Preview - Week 12

We're really coming down the stretch of the season, and most teams are still playing for something, either for championships or bowl position. Here in Week 12, only LSU's opponent, Ole Miss, cannot make it to a bowl game. Here is the preview of this week's games:

Florida Atlantic at Florida and University of Louisiana-Monroe at Bama. Bama will get to win #7 and a near-certain bowl bid unless there is a serious breakdown of epic proportions. Florida will reach win #8 and position itself for a Dec. 31-or-later bowl game. Neither Florida Atlantic nor ULM are even particularly strong cupcakes, and I expect these games to be well in-hand by halftime.

Kentucky at Georgia, 11:30am, Lincoln-Financial. Once again, Lincoln-Financial gets a huge game. Just a couple weeks ago, Georgia was an enigma of a team that got stomped by Tennessee and that beat Vandy by 3 points. Now, all of a sudden, they're one of the hottest teams in the country, having gone on a 4 game winning streak that included big wins over Auburn and Florida. They have one of the best young running backs in the country, and one of the best young quarterbacks around. I still think their defense and their offensive line are suspect though. And Kentucky, despite recent woes, still has one of the best set of skill players in the country, and a defense that surprised me with its intensity and physicality. They are more than capable of beating Georgia and ending ALL of Georgia's high hopes. A loss by Georgia means it cannot go to the SECCG, and will not go to a BCS bowl. A win by Georgia eliminates Florida from the SECCG, and Georgia would still need help from Vandy or Kentucky (in the form of beating Tennessee) to make it to the SECCG.

Mississippi State at Arkansas, 1:00pm, no television. Both of these teams sit at 6 wins and are trying to get to 7, which will make them, I think, bowl safe. Both of these teams have something to market to a bowl committee even with 6 wins, but I don't think either one of them is a safe bet to make it unless they get to 7. MSU is one of the feel-good stories of the year in the country, and Arkansas is one of the feel-bad stories. MSU is overachieving, winning for a coach who was in great danger of being fired, and is emerging as one of the fun young teams to watch. Arkansas is coming off a tumultuous offseason, has underachieved for a coach under fire, and has failed to perform around its Heisman Trophy-calibre player. And yet, both sit at 6 wins, ready for more. This is actually a pretty good and pretty even matchup, and I wish it was on television, but it isn't.

Vandy at Tennessee, 1:00pm, GamePlan. There isn't an SEC game on television after the CBS game this week. What is ESPN doing? This game is important to the SEC race and it can't get past the GamePlan schedule? Tennessee, of course, controls its destiny in the SEC East. If they win out, they're in the Championship Game against LSU. If they lose a game, that opens the door for either Georgia or Florida to make it. Vandy is sitting at 5 wins, with an uphill battle to get to a bowl game. If they lose this one, they get a decent Wake Forest team next, and only 6 wins by no means guarantees a bowl game this year. Vandy needs to play as if they MUST win this game, because honestly they probably really do need this game in order to make it to a bowl. Despite the 5 wins, Vandy is probably the most disappointing team of the season. I really expected them to be more competitive and to beat a good team or two. They beat South Carolina, but that team was in the middle of an epic collapse. I don't think either of these teams are very good, but Tennessee is better.

LSU at Ole Miss, 2:30pm CBS. There's not a single night game in the SEC this week. I find that bizarre. I usually don't talk about LSU games in this segment, but I've been distracted from talking about it until now. What do I think of Ole Miss? I think they're better than their record. They're 0-6 in the conference, but they have been in some games against teams that pushed us to the limit. They lost to Florida by 6 points, and to Bama by 3. They've also played some bad games, losing to Vandy by 14 and to Arkansas by 36. I think their quarterback is not bad at all. He has more passing yards than Matt Flynn, though he's averaging less per attempt and cannot run. He's got some young receivers who do some amazingly athletic things sometimes. Their passing game has struggled a lot in the last few games though, with completion percentages under 50%, and averaging less than 100 yards per game. I don't have any explanation for that collapse other than the possibility that the loss to Bama simply took all the starch out of them.

Ole Miss's defense has some good players. Greg Hardy and Marcus Tillman are both very good defensive linemen, and Chris Strong is going to be a very good linebacker at some point. But right now their defense lacks size and athleticism at other positions, and that means we can probably beat them with our receivers and our offensive athleticism.

Keep in mind though that Ole Miss plays its season for a chance to beat us. This is their bowl game. It's their opportunity to make a mark on the college football world this year. I think we can expect Ole Miss to come out and play its best game, particularly on defense. Of course, LSU is also playing for a lot, and I don't think the Miles rumors are going to impact this particular game. Maybe next week though.

Around the SEC - Week 11

It was a fascinating week around the SEC, and like we expected, things shook out quite a lot. The SEC West representative at the SEC Championship Game is decided (woot!), and while the SEC East still has 3 candidates mathematically in it, the decision tree got a lot simpler. While LSU played a laugher and Ole Miss was idle, every other team played a meaningful game.

Mississippi State 17
Alabama 12

This was a fun, competitive game to watch, and it went pretty much by MSU's script for winning games. Run the ball effectively. Get some timely turnovers and either score or get good field position. Rush the passer effectively. MSU only had 215 yards of total offense, compared to 274 for Alabama. The box score of this one is ugly. MSU ran the ball OK, but didn't have a single running back average more than 4 yards per carry. Their QB didn't complete half his passes, and averaged less than 5 yards per attempt, with an interception. But of course, there were the interceptions, which were the deciding factors in this game.

MSU gets to 6 wins, with two shots at getting to 7. Alabama remains at 6 wins, but they get a rent-a-win next week, and they'll get to 7 before going against Auburn to close out the regular season.

Tennessee 34
Arkansas 13

I hope our team watches film of this game and the Auburn-Arkansas game to figure out how to stop Darren McFadden. You may remember he totally ripped us apart last year. We won anyway, but we never figured him out. Tennessee figured him out, even though he got 115 rushing yards. Most of it was after Tennessee was already way ahead. If we can hold McFadden to 115 yards, we will beat Arkansas easily too.

Tennessee is one step closer to the SEC Championship Game. They need to win out in games over Kentucky and Vandy to make it.

Kentucky 27
Vandy 20

Speaking of Kentucky and Vandy, they played a game this week that did not make it to television. It was competitive to the end, but nothing really stands out on the box score to me. It was just another game that Vandy had a chance to win and lost. They held Woodson to 222 yards passing and didn't give up a 100 yard rusher. However, they themselves did not pass the ball effectively, averaging less than 6 yards per attempt. This was, of course, an important game for both teams. Kentucky got to 7 wins, and Vandy failed to get to 6.

Georgia 45
Auburn 20

Now, before I get into this game, I want to whine and moan about officiating. There's been a trend in the SEC years to be really liberal about throwing flags for late hits on the quarterback, and indeed late or helmet-to-helmet hits on anyone. It's gotten out of hand, and they're penalizing things that simply should never be penalized. The game of football includes hitting, and the officials should recognize that. Here we are in a league with tons of athletic, running quarterbacks and we're penalizing little hits against them. We have athletic, aggressive defenses in this conference. That's why this conference is so popular, but aggressive teams are being heavily penalized, much more than is really justified.

There were two outrageous penalty calls in this game, both against Georgia, and both when the game was still very much undecided. In the first, a Georgia defender rolled over Brandon Cox as he went down to the ground. There was no helmet-to-helmet contact, and it was probably less than 1/2 second after Cox was down. It was flagged for a 15 yard penalty. The second one involved another hit on Cox, who had just thrown the ball. It was also unjustified.

The SEC needs to do something about this. It's outrageous. It's hurt LSU, who has gotten, I think, at least 2 unjustified late hit penalties that have hurt us. One was against Florida, and led to a touchdown. The other was against Bama, and was by most accounts the game-changing play of the first half. But it's also hurt other teams. I recall complaining about a call that went against Mississippi State a couple weeks ago. Two went against Georgia this week, and they came at times when the game was still very much in doubt, and in fact when Auburn had momentum. These could have been game deciding calls, and they were both egregiously wrong, and went against the aggressive team.

Anyway, on to the game. Despite the large margin of victory here, this game was close until the end of the 3rd quarter. Georgia scored a touchdown on the last play of the 3rd quarter to go ahead by 11. Just half a quarter earlier, Auburn had all the momentum in the game. They had a lead, and had scored the previous 17 points. What's more, Georgia couldn't move the ball at all. They had a couple consecutive 3-and-outs on offense and looked terribly out of sync.

I'm starting to agree with Gary Danielson, who said, "Momentum means nothing in this sport." If you thought momentum was important in football, you would have quit watching this game halfway through the 3rd quarter thinking that Auburn had it won. But Georgia handed the ball to Knowshon Moreno and Thomas Brown and the rest is history.

Auburn lost all shot at a BCS bowl, and Georgia closed in on a possible berth in the SEC Championship Game. They need to beat Kentucky this week and hope either Vandy or Kentucky can beat Tennessee though.

Florida 51
South Carolina 31

I can name one team that appears to have packed it in for the season. I can name one player who deserves to win the Heisman Trophy. The GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week is Tim Tebow. I think this is the 4th time he's won this award this year. He threw for 304 yards and 2 touchdowns. He ran for 120 yards and 5 touchdowns. With Percy Harvin out with an illness, Urban Meyer gave the ball to Tebow and he dominated this game.

In fact, if Tebow wasn't going to be the GTOSPPOW, it would go to his teammate Andre Caldwell who caught 11 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown.

Florida put itself in position that it can still win the East, but it needs a lot of help. They need Kentucky to beat Georgia and for either Vandy or Kentucky to beat Tennessee. They really needed some help this week to get to the Championship Game, and they didn't get any of it. Now, it's looking fairly unlikely. It could still happen though.

What does it mean?

The SEC has 10 bowl-eligible teams, and we could get to 11. The SEC has 8 bowl tie-ins. The SEC could potentially get an at-large BCS placement, giving us 9 bowl teams. It looks like someone's going to miss a bowl game despite being eligible. One of the rules is that you have to take a team with a winning record over a team with a .500 record if there is one available, so you can be bowl-safe by getting to 7 wins.

Bowl-safe:

LSU
Auburn
Tennessee
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky

Bowl-eligible:
Mississippi State
Alabama
South Carolina
Arkansas

5-wins:
Vandy

Arkansas and Mississippi State play each other this week. One of those teams will be bowl-safe. Alabama plays ULM and they will end up being bowl-safe. That will make 8 bowl-safe teams. If Arkansas doesn't beat MSU, they have to beat LSU to get bowl-safe. Tall order. If MSU doesn't beat Arkansas, they have to beat Ole Miss to get bowl-safe. South Carolina has to beat Clemson to get bowl-safe, and if they don't do it they are probably the team that will be left out of bowl season, having lost 5 in a row under that scenario.

Heck, it is entirely possible that the SEC will have 10 teams with 7 wins, and that this standard will no longer be bowl-safe. It think that's unlikely though.

It is also possible, especially in a 10-teams-with-7-wins scenario, that the last SEC team out will get an at-large bid in a game that does not have an SEC tie-in due to a lack of eligible teams elsewhere. But in a 12-game season, there are likely to be a lot of bowl-eligible teams out there.

Later this week: Recruiting discussion.

SEC Preview - Week 11

After a week or two of less-than-fascinating weeks in the SEC (still, those weeks had important things happen), this week we are back to the SEC being a 12-team dogfight. There are five SEC games this week, and although LSU is not a combatant in any of them, it will still be a big week in the SEC.

Literally every one of the 5 SEC games this week features two teams playing for something tangible. Some are playing for a shot at going to the SEC Championship Game (Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida). Some are playing just to improve bowl position (Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Bama, Arkansas). Some are fighting to reach bowl-eligibility (Vandy, MSU). Only Ole Miss is relegated to playing for pride, and they're off this week. This is another one of those good weeks where pretty good matchups aren't on regular television.

Bama at Mississippi State, 11:30am Lincoln-Financial Sports. This game is only being broadcast around half of the SEC territory, plus on GamePlan, because of LF's plan to do split-coverage this week. It's one of those weeks where I really wish ESPN would have picked up two of our games, and I'm not sure why they didn't.

Anyway, like a lot of MSU's games, this is a classic tortoise-hare matchup. MSU brings its basic but effective offensive scheme of running Anthony Dixon left, right, and middle while mixing in the occasional pass to this game, while Bama brings its powerful passing attack and big play ability. All of Mississippi State's big plays come on defense, and they tend to win by getting a lot of turnovers and playing with a lead. Bama, though not a great team, has done a very good job of avoiding turnovers. Can MSU win? Absolutely they can, but it could just as easily be a blowout in Bama's favor (and by "blowout", I mean a 2-touchdown or more victory).

What's at stake: MSU is playing for a chance at a bowl game. They are sitting at 5 wins, and I think to really lock up a bowl game, you need 7 this year. MSU gets Ole Miss and Arky to close out the season, and they need two wins. It will be very tough, but not impossible, if they don't get one here. Bama is sitting at 6 wins, so they're looking to lock up a bowl game and still have a realistic chance at a pretty decent bowl game like the Cotton, Peach (refuse to call it Chick-Fil-A), or one of the Florida bowls. They get UL-Monroe next week, so they aren't exactly in danger of failing to get to 7 wins, but this game will mean a lot for their bowl position.

Arkansas at Tennessee, 11:30 Lincoln-Financial. Unfortunately, I'm pretty sure I won't have a chance to see this game, and that's too bad. We have two teams with a combined 12-6 record, one of whom still has a chance to win the conference, and it's not going to broadcast even all around the South? Where is ESPN on this?

I think Tennessee is in big trouble here. Their defense is not strong, and Arkansas looks to be resurgent, with their 450-something yards of rushing last week and the return of Marcus Monk. Tennessee will have to play the best defensive game of its season to hold Arkansas to under, say, 4 touchdowns. The good news for Tennessee is that the Arkansas defense was absolutely abused by Bama's passing game earlier this season, and Tennessee's passing is just as good if not better. Even Blake Mitchell passed for 364 yards and made 51 attempts without an interception. This could be a high-scoring shootout.

What's at stake: Tennessee controls its destiny to get to the SEC Championship Game, which means they still have a realistic chance at winning the conference and going to a BCS Bowl. They could also conceivably collapse down the stretch and miss a bowl game entirely. They do not have a rent-a-win left on the schedule and they are sitting at 6 wins. Without beating either Arkansas, Vandy, or Kentucky, they could miss out on bowl-season all together.

Arkansas is in similar position, except that they have no chance at the SEC Championship. They could still end up at a New Year's Bowl though, and it starts with a win here. If there is a loss here, they're looking at a reasonable chance of staying home. They close out the season with games against MSU and LSU. Nothing will be easy for them, but their win against South Carolina last week resurrected their season. They need to keep it going if they want to go bowling.

Kentucky at Vandy, 1:00 GamePlan. Kentucky is reeling, and Vandy is coming off a blowout loss to Florida. Three weeks ago, Kentucky had beaten LSU and was looking like a real threat to win the conference. Now, they have lost two in a row and they're out of the race. Vandy has been an enigma as well. Kentucky still has its powerful offense, though it certainly laid an egg in its last game against MSU. Kentucky's too powerful on offense to let Vandy beat them unless they make the kinds of mistakes they made against Mississippi State. Vandy just isn't athletic enough to stay with them. But of course, they did make those mistakes against MSU and there's no reason it's impossible to believe it will happen again. Vandy, like MSU, is good enough to take advantage of Kentucky mistakes to steal a win.

What's at stake: Kentucky needs a win to ensure a bowl game, and they close out the season against ranked teams Georgia and Tennessee. If they're going to a bowl game, they NEED to win this game. They can't finish the season with 6 wins and a five game losing streak and hope to get an invite. This is a team with a season on the verge of collapse, but they could still salvage it and set themselves up for something nice. If they win here, they develop the confidence necessary to have a realistic shot at a split of the final two games, and they'd be looking at a nice bowl game. Lose here, and the downward spiral continues, ending possibly in oblivion.

Vandy is playing for bowl-eligibility, and they still have a shot to pick up another win down the stretch in games against Tennessee and Wake Forest. Seven wins is not out of the question for them, but I think they need to start here if they are to get it. They may be playing for a chance to go to the I-Bowl at this point, or the Liberty Bowl, but any bowl for Vandy is a big season.

Auburn at Georgia, 2:30pm CBS. This is a HUGE game, and a good matchup. Both of these teams, if they win out, have a realistic shot at a BCS bowl game, and Georgia could still win the SEC if they catch a break from Tennessee. Georgia is an interesting team that sometimes looks awful (vs. Tennessee) and sometimes looks like a borderline great team (vs. Florida). Knowshon Moreno is a huge find at running back, and he's likely to be an All-SEC selection at this point despite being only a redshirt freshman. Auburn, of course, has recovered from their slow start to the season to become a very formidable team, solid in all phases. It's on national television and you better believe I'll be watching.

What's at stake: well, like I mentioned, a potential BCS-bowl for the winner and a chance for the conference championship for Georgia. The winner has a chance for a season most anyone would consider an unambiguous success. The loser will be looking pretty far down the bowl-ladder. Both teams have bowl games locked up at this point, but either team could end up in the I-Bowl or the Music City Bowl if they finish the season weak.

Florida at South Carolina, 6:45pm ESPN. South Carolina is reeling, and Florida is Florida. South Carolina, like Kentucky, looked so very good until mid-October, but a 3 game losing streak has killed their chances at a conference championship, and probably has all but destroyed their chance for a New Year's Day bowl. A few weeks ago, I would have told you this was an even-money game. Now, it clearly isn't. But South Carolina is just as talented as they were a month ago, and they still have a very good running game, a decent passing game, and a tough defense. I don't know why they're struggling so much right now, but if they're going to pull out of it, they need to do it now. Florida, of course, has a mismatch whenever they let their QB run, but he hasn't been strictly healthy. Florida with an unhealthy Tim Tebow is a pretty ordinary team (good enough to crush Vandy though).

What's at stake: Florida still has a realistic chance at playing for the SEC Championship. They just need to win this game and hope Georgia and Tennessee lose a game down the stretch. The East could conceivably be decided this week, then. Florida is sitting at 6 wins, but they finish the season with Florida Atlantic and Florida State. Even with a loss here, they are going to reach at least 7 wins, and probably 8, so they aren't really playing for a bowl game here. But they are definitely playing for bowl position. A BCS game is still in reach, either automatic or at-large if they miss the SECCG. USC is playing for a bowl game and to resurrect their season. With a win here, they would spoil Florida's dreams of winning the conference, and they would give themselves a real shot at getting to 8 wins and a very nice bowl. With a loss here, and a loss to Clemson two weeks from now, they probably stay home with a 5 game losing streak.

Around the SEC - Week 10

Don't overlook Poseur's latest post below. For those of you who are relatively new to this web site, Poseur is a friend of mine I asked to do some guest blogging for me. He then quickly got absorbed in a time-consuming class in law school that robbed him of his capacity to indulge in football-related blogging. Now that the class is over (or at least winding down), I expect we'll hear from Poseur a little more. And that will be a good thing, because if you thought *I* was a sports geek, wait until you get a load of him.

Anyway, it will be a short "Around the SEC" this week, because I am not going through all those homecoming blowouts, and there were only two other in-conference games this week. It was, however, an interesting week despite the lack of quantity of games. Both divisions came more into focus than they previously had been, though three teams still have a realistic shot at the East.

Florida 49
Vandy 22

This game went about as expected, I guess. Florida's athletes were just too much for Vandy. In particular Harvin, Tebow, and Caldwell were too much for Vandy, as were the plethora of young athletes the Gators have on defense. My brother was here this weekend, and he observed that Florida is going to be awesome next year. They won't lose a whole lot of talent outside of Caldwell and DE Derrick Harvey. They'll probably be preseason #1 in the country.

But this year, they're still trying to get to the SEC Championship Game. They're still in it. They have to beat South Carolina next week and then hope for some help, but they don't need an outrageous amount of help. In fact, I think if they win, they're the odds-on favorite to be the East's representative.

Arkansas 48
South Carolina 36

Wow. Two words: McFadden. He tied an SEC record for most rushing yards in a game with 321. Think about that. In the 75 year history of the SEC, historically a running conference, Darren McFadden came in and set a record for rushing yards in a season. Against a pretty good team. While splitting carries with another back. And he threw the ball for a touchdown once.

Do you think this guy can play football? The SEC is blessed to have two very special talents in the conference right now, and McFadden is one of them. It's too bad his team has been so middling this year, and that he has been playing hurt lately, because it has robbed us of seeing this guy play at his best.

And oh yeah, he's our GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week. You get that when you set a single-game record for rushing yards and throw for a touchdown. I can say with great certainty that for as long as I am giving out this award, if a player sets or ties a record for either rushing, passing, or receiving, and then scores a touchdown doing one of the two other things among rushing, passing, or receiving, he will be receive the award.

What does it all mean?

Well, it means once again LSU appears to be on the verge of playing a team that will be absolutely at its best when we get them. Arkansas looked dead, and now they're coming back and looking like they'll be the formidable opponent we thought they'd be early in the season.

The Florida win and the South Carolina loss mean that South Carolina is now out of the East race. They are finished. I hope they can mentally recover, but I doubt they can. They've now lost three consecutive games and have gone from a BCS contender to a team that may not make it to a bowl game. They're bowl-eligible, but the SEC may still have 11 bowl-eligible teams. You'll need 7 wins to be assured of a bowl game this year, and South Carolina is sitting at 6 and staring at games against ranked teams Florida and Clemson to finish out the season.

Tennessee controls its destiny in the East. Georgia needs to win out and hope for a Tennessee loss against Arkansas, Vandy, or Kentucky. Florida needs to beat South Carolina and hope for Tennessee to lose and for Georgia to lose to either Auburn or Kentucky. Really, any of these teams can still win the whole thing.

SEC Preview - Week 10

Sorry for not posting yesterday. I had been up from 3:00am to about 4:30am with the baby, and somehow or another my alarm never quite went off.

It's Homecoming week in the SEC, and there are even fewer interesting-looking games this week than last, but before we get to that, there's a little matter of a certain backup quarterback to discuss. He won't be playing against Bama, or even making the trip, but he's been cleared of wrongdoing and will be back with the team next week. This has apparently greatly upset some of the rumor-mongers on the boards, who think the police are giving him favorable treatment. The official story, however, is that Perrilloux did nothing illegal and that the bouncers (who have been fired, btw) hassled him wrongly.

I disagree with the people who fault Perrilloux simply for being out so late at night. The kid, despite all his problems, is still a college kid, and it's not like he was hanging out at some crack house. He was at a club, reportedly with half the rest of the team with him. Yes, I wonder what his pregnant girlfriend was doing there, but I can't fault the kid for simply being out late at night.

Anyway, onto the games this week.

Vandy at Florida, 11:30am Lincoln-Financial. I'm glad Vandy showed the sort of life I had been expecting of them a couple weeks ago against the Gamecocks. Do they have a chance against Florida? Sure they do. But is it a realistic chance? Well, I think it's a realistic chance if Tebow is still at well below 100%. The ESPN preview of the game makes no mention of Tebow's health, which is what you get from ESPN sometimes. Tebow at less than 100% is an ordinary player, and Florida with an ordinary quarterback this year is an ordinary team. Vandy is also an ordinary team, which means that if Tebow isn't Tebow-esque, Florida and Vandy are roughly even. Still, Vandy does not have a whole lot of athletes on defense, and I believe that even without Tebow's running, their secondary probably isn't much of a match for Harvin-Caldwell-Ingram.

Troy at Georgia
Northwestern St. at Ole Miss
Tennessee Tech at Auburn
ULaLa at Tennessee

Like I said, it's Homecoming week. I assume all of these games are the Homecoming games for their respective home teams. The biggest mismatch is TTU at Auburn. Tennessee Tech is riding a four game losing streak, including losses to Samford, Austin Peay, and Jacksonville St. Auburn can name its score. If you're looking for upset potential, how about Troy at Georgia? Troy is 6-2, including a win against Oklahoma State and tough losses against Florida and Arkansas. Troy is actually a pretty solid OOC opponent, and Georgia is set for a letdown. I'm not saying it'll happen, but if there's a trap game on this list, this is it.

LSU at Bama, 4:00 CBS. Yeah, you know about this one. In all the hoopla about the Perrilloux situation, the situation going on with Bama's offensive line has been strangely underreported. The University (not the team) has suspended 5 players from the Bama team over a scandal involving textbooks, including two starting offensive linemen. My understanding of it is this. Football players get a textbook allowance, and what they do is go to the campus bookstore and get their books, drawing from an account. What these five players did was get textbooks through this process, not for themselves, but for their friends. My understanding is that they did not profit from this, but were simply doing favors for their friends.

The result is that 5 players, including two starting offensive linemen and two frequently-used reserve players (a running back and a defensive back) were not available for their last game against Tennessee, and their status for this game remains uncertain. It didn't hurt them last week, as they ended up playing their best game of the season in the absence of those players. However, Tennessee's D-line is not nearly as good as our defensive line, and I don't think Bama wants to go through this game without their best 5 on the offensive line.

We'll know in the next day or so whether they'll be playing.

I'll have more on this game tomorrow.

South Carolina at Arkansas, 7:00pm ESPN2. Let's see. Kentucky has lost 3 of its last 4. Florida has lost 3 of its last 4. And South Carolina has lost 2 in a row after starting the season 6-1. The teams in the East that looked like the best now look very very average. South Carolina still has a chance in the East, but they have to win out and hope for help. They need Georgia and Tennessee to lose, but the good news is that there's a very good chance that will happen, as Georgia gets Auburn and Kentucky down the stretch and Tennessee gets Arkansas, Vandy, and Kentucky.

Obviously, when talking about Arkansas, you start with their running backs. We all know how good they are (hint: very very good), but the question is always how the other team's defense matches up. I think South Carolina's defense matches up pretty well. They've been solid all year, and there are good athletes at defensive line and linebacker, as well as at corner to help on the ends. Arkansas isn't a good enough team to beat you unless you let them run all over you, and I think South Carolina has a good chance of keeping that from happening. Arkansas does not have the passing game or the defense to really beat you in those phases of the game.

I think that if South Carolina comes out and plays, they will win. The question is whether or not this team is collapsing following these tough losses to Tennessee and Vandy. South Carolina is not a team that has a history of winning when times get tough. They have a gut-check this week.

SEC Preview - Week 9

Before we get to the SEC Preview, let's review the lessons from last night's Boston College vs. Virginia Tech matchup:

• The "prevent" defense does nothing but prevent you from winning the game. When you have been absolutely dominantly defensively all game by rushing 4 and playing a tight matchup zone, why would you suddenly start dropping 9 and playing a soft deep, soft zone? Why do so many coaches change the formula that is giving them success just because they're ahead?
• If you're losing late, it is never a good idea to give the other team the ball. I couldn't believe the announcers were even debating whether or not BC should kick an onside kick. Here's a hint: if Virginia Tech gets the ball and gets one first down, the game is over.
• The center/QB exchange is very very important. I think one of the plays that made the difference in this game came with about 6 1/2 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Virginia Tech was driving the ball, running effectively, and they had 2nd and 4. They lined up in the shotgun and the snap was wide to Glennon's left. He fell on it for a 10 yard loss, but it effectively ended that drive, and Virginia Tech didn't move the ball again the next time they went on offense (which was, incidentally, the last time they went on offense until they were losing).

OK, on to the SEC this week. It's a bit of a slow week this week because LSU and Bama are idle and Vandy and Arkansas are playing games out of conference. There are some decent games out there this week, including 3 on television, but honestly this week doesn't look nearly as exciting a some previous weeks.

Mississippi State at Kentucky, 11:30am Lincoln-Financial. It's a battle between tortoise and hare here. MSU plays 3 yards and a cloud of dust football and Kentucky has a big play, sophisticated offense. Kentucky has really proven a lot to me in the last two weeks. They are not at all the soft team I thought they were at the beginning of the season. They've matured as a team quite a lot, and they are a legitimate New Year's Day bowl-calibre team. MSU is not bad either. Their defense is going to have to play tight while also avoiding the big play and let their slow-and-steady offense put up a few points. I think Kentucky is superior, but I can't look at a game like this and say that MSU is out of it before the game starts. They can do too many good things, and this year no one is safe.

Here's what Kentucky needs to win the East:

• win out
• have Florida and South Carolina lose a game
  

Florida International at Arkansas and Miami (OH) at Vandy, both at 1:00pm, neither is televised. If Vandy wins their game, they're on the verge of bowl-eligibility. The same is true of Arkansas. This year, it is conceivable that the SEC could have 11 bowl-eligible teams. We only have 9 bowl tie-ins though. I really hope everyone who is bowl-eligible gets a bowl, but it seems like that's unlikely to happen. I don't know anything about these non-conference opponents, but it is my expectations that the SEC schools will win these two games.

Florida vs. Georgia, neutral site, 2:30pm on CBS. You know, I'm just not as excited about this matchup as a lot of people are. At this point, I just don't think Georgia is a very good team. Their offense is inconsistent and their defense is not particularly impressive. Matthew Stafford has not emerged as the force I expected this year, though he occasionally has a big game. They're going to need Stafford to play at his highest level if they're going to win this one, because Florida won't be holding Tebow back. Florida knows this game and the South Carolina game are the season for them. Tebow will carry the ball 15 times per game, at least. He can rest when he's dead. Georgia has looked pretty good at times, but their big win came a full month ago against Bama, and they've been pretty hit-and-miss ever since.

Of course, there have been plenty of games I've gotten exactly wrong this year.

What does Florida need to win the East: Win out.

What does Georgia need to win the East:

• Win out
• Have South Carolina and Tennessee lose a game

Ole Miss at Auburn, 5:00pm ESPN Gameplan. Ole Miss is a team with a little bit of talent, but they haven't been able to finish games. I think this game has the biggest potential for upset in the SEC this week. Ole Miss is more talented and more effective offensively than their poor record would suggest. They've played Florida, Bama, and Missouri tough so far this year. One of those teams still has a realistic shot at the National Championship. Auburn will be experiencing the "LSU Effect" wherein teams that play LSU struggle in the weeks following playing LSU due to being physically beaten up and emotionally exhausted. They're also coming off of a very disappointing last-minute loss in a game they probably thought they had won. There is the potential for a serious let-down game. Plus, Tuberville is known for losing to weaker teams.

Too bad this one isn't on television. Rumor has it that this could have been the LF game, but Auburn (having already had one LF game this year) turned it down.

South Carolina at Tennessee, 6:45pm ESPN. This is the best matchup of the week, I think, even though I think South Carolina is the far superior team. South Carolina has proven it's capable of laying an egg, and Tennessee has proven it's capable of playing over its head. SC's loss to Vandy last week was absolutely bewildering. I guess South Carolina just can't stand prosperity. The good news is that I still think South Carolina is the best or 2nd best team in the East, and they still control their destiny. As for Tennessee, I don't know what's up with them. They go out and dominate Georgia, and then they go and get dominated by Bama. I dont' see how that happens. This matchup is good for South Carolina because they're very good at countering what Tennessee does best, which is throw the ball. If South Carolina can do to Erik Ainge what they've done to other QBs this year, I don't think the Tennessee running game or defense can do enough damage to let Tennessee win.

What South Carolina needs to win the East: win out
What Tennessee needs to win the East:

• win out
• have Florida lose

The other thing is, while Tennessee is still very much mathematically in the race for the East if they win this one, they're also in danger of not making bowl-eligibility if they lose this game.

Around the SEC: Week 8

It's going to be a while before we play again. We get a well-deserved off-week now, so our players can rest up and heal up before taking on Bama, who also gets an off-week. In this time, we'll talk a little more about recruiting. I'll also publish a few tips for people coming to Tuscaloosa. In the meantime, we have Around The SEC to give you.

Bama 41
Tennessee 17

Let's revisit what I had to say about this game last week:

I think Tennessee is the better team, which is strange because I wouldn't have said that two weeks ago at this time. If there is any trend you may notice from my writings, it is that I do not believe the better team necessarily wins every game, and these teams are close enough in talent that you really couldn't make a confident prediction. Plus, Bama's at home, and they hate Tennessee more than the Baptists hate to drink in public. Bama's problem here is that Tennessee's offense is pretty darn explosive. It's also very balanced. They can run with Lamarcus Coker and Arrian Foster, and it can pass with Erik Ainge, who is quietly having the kind of season that might normally make someone a 1st Team All-SEC quarterback.

I said more, but that pretty much covers it. To me, both of these teams have been an enigma this year. Both teams have looked very good at times, and both teams have looked very bad at times. This week was Bama's best game of the season so far. They were really up for it and smoked Tennessee. It was all Tennessee could do to keep up in the 1st half, but they couldn't get anything going in the second. Now the question is, does this mean Bama is a really good team? Or did they just have a really good game? Because there's a difference.

John Parker Wilson's line makes him a candidate for the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week. He had 346 yards on 46 attempts, with 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. DJ Hall, with his 13 receptions for 185 yards and 2 touchdowns may take it away from him though.

Vandy 17
South Carolina 6

There wasn't a point scored in the second half of this game, and Vandy didn't score at all after the first quarter. Anyway, this is the game I've thought Vandy had in it from the beginning, and they beat a top 10 team. What's more, thanks to the depth in the SEC this year, this game went untelevised except on GamePlan.

Arkansas 44
Ole Miss 8

Arkansas shows a little life, and finally gets a win in the conference. Meanwhile, the team that pushed Florida and Bama to the brink completely failed to show up, at home, against a mediocre team. Neither of these teams have any shot of winning the conference at this point, but both teams have shown the ability to play the spoiler.

Florida 45
Kentucky 37

Let me just say this now. Both of these teams are very good. In particular, they are both very good on offense. Both of these QBs are legitimate Heisman candidates at this point, with Tebow having the advantage at this point. Both Woodson and Tebow scored 5 touchdowns, with Woodson passing for all of them and Tebow running for one. Woodson had over 400 yards passing. What I don't like is that both padded their stats at the end with meaningless extra stats. Florida had the ball deep in Kentucky's territory with less than two minutes on the clock and ahead by a touchdown. They could have kneeled it three times and ended the game. Instead, they ran Tebow for a touchdown. Woodson got the ball back with about a minute and a half and drove his team for a last-second touchdown to cut the lead down to 8 before the extra point, which was never attempted. What was the purpose of these plays? None, except that Tebow had a "consecutive games with a rushing touchdown" streak to keep alive, and I got the impression Woodson really just didn't want the game to end.

I don't like Urban Meyer. I think he's a petty little man. I say this because of things that happen on the field as well as things that happen on the recruiting trail, where he supposedly is one of the worst "negative recruiters" out there, meaning he will do much more than others to denigrate other teams to recruits.

West Virginia 38
MSU 13

This game went pretty much how I expected. Pat White and Steve Slaton and the rest of the WVU team just had too much big play ability for MSU to compete.

LSU 30
Auburn 24

It appears that both Tommy Tuberville and Auburn OL Chazz Ramsey's father have addressed the issue of the illegal hit that Chazz Ramsey perpetrated on Glen Dorsey, ending his night. Ramsey, by the way, is a freshman offensive lineman, which I think impacts the decision of his father to speak for him. Tuberville said that he was not ordered to do that, and that they do not teach players to do that. He also said that because it was not intentional, there will be no discipline. Ramsey said that it was not intentional, but that his son should know better than to do that to someone when he's engaged with another lineman. The player has yet to comment as far as I know. I'd still like him to comment on it himself, but I'm glad that the people around him aren't ignoring the issue. Like I've said before, I give the kid the benefit of the doubt that he wasn't out to hurt anyone, but it was reckless. I said the exact same thing about Richard Murphy's spear in Captain Munnerlyn's back, and I say the same thing here. I doubt it was intended, but it can't be tolerated.

What does all this mean? Well, the East is just as wide open as it was at the beginning of the season. Florida controls its destiny, and wins it if they win out, but they have tough games remaining. This thing is far from decided.

In the West, LSU and Bama are in the driver's seats. The winner of the game two weeks from now only has to beat lesser teams down the stretch in order to win the division.

Oh, and the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week Award goes to DJ Hall of Alabama. Also considered were John Parker Wilson, Matt Flynn, Andre Woodson, and Tim Tebow.

SEC Preview Week 8

As it so happened, Homer at the Bat aired last night in local syndication. I was very impressed with the timing. The show is hilarious, and the commenter who corrected me about the plot points is correct. I had forgotten how funny Darryl Strawberry's appearance was in that show.

It's yet another in an endless string of big weekends in the SEC this week. Once again, it's so big that a fairly interesting matchup between Ole Miss and Arkansas won't be televised, and neither will a big OOC matchup between MSU and West Virginia. I guess at this point neither Ole Miss nor Arkansas are a threat to win the West, so it's not such a big deal that they're off of television. It appears there will be TWO Lincoln-Financial games this week, and both will be fairly substantial matchups. We'll get to all that now.

Tennessee at Bama, 11:30am Lincoln-Financial. People are very upset that this is the 11:30 game this week, as it is one of the most bitter rivalries in the SEC. And I can see their complaints. Both of these teams still control their destinies in their respective divisions. Tennessee, for one, has looked pretty good recently. It is, in fact, a very heated rivalry. The problem is that the other games on the schedule just look more attractive right now. The game between Auburn and LSU appears to once again be a fight for supremacy in the west and the game between Florida and Kentucky looks like a heavyweight fight. This one looks more like a middleweight fight at this point. By the end of the season, I could be eating those words, but at this point this matchup just doesn't look as compelling as the other ones on the schedule. Will I watch it? Heck yeah. I mean, it's Tennessee vs. Bama. We might see actual violence perpetrated against a certain coach.

Vandy at South Carolina, 11:30am, (Lincoln-Financial?). I can't figure out if this game is an alternate LF game or not. It's at 11:30. It's on GamePlan. But I haven't heard anything about it being an alternate LF game. It would be kind of a shame if this game was off of regular television entirely. South Carolina looks to be a serious challenger in the East this year, while Vandy is still... um... waiting to have that breakout game I keep expecting. If Vandy QB Chris Nickson can have a half-decent game against a half-decent opponent, Vandy is a dangerous team. South Carolina, meanwhile, just keeps looking better and better as the season progresses. I think they are legitimately the best team in the East right now, and they're just waiting for their game with Florida to prove it.

Arkansas at Ole Miss, 1:00pm, no television. Arkansas has to be the most disappointing team in the conference. I expected them to be a very good team, but they're winless in the conference and have looked pretty flat. After his 40-something yard rushing game against Auburn, Darren McFadden is out of the Heisman race. Marcus Monk is thinking about redshirting. Houston Nutt is thinking about life after Arkansas. Ole Miss has quietly become the worst team in the conference, even though I think they're a better team than they were last year. Their offense is much more dynamic and they have a lot more skilled players. Other teams, like MSU and Vandy, have just gotten better faster.

Florida at Kentucky, 2:30pm CBS. Kentucky will try to build on its win against LSU, and I for one hope they beat the Gators. If they play with the fire and passion they did against LSU, they have an excellent chance. It's hard to sustain that kind of effort over the long haul, however. I thought we could be more physical than Kentucky, but we couldn't. They surprised me with their intensity. Will they surprise Florida? Will they ask Tebow to put up another Herculean effort?

Mississippi State at West Virginia, 2:30pm Gameplan. I'm not sure this game has any regional coverage here. I'm not particularly interested in it, because I think WVU will pulverize Mississippi State. I could be wrong though. MSU plays a solid defensive and running game. They just are going to have problem with teams that put up big plays, which is West Virginia forte. I actually expect MSU to play them pretty tough, but I don't expect them to come out with a win here. There's just too much speed and big play ability on the other side of the ball.

Auburn at LSU, 8:00pm ESPN. Does anyone realize that Auburn is just a couple of plays away from being undefeated? Then again, almost every game is decided by just a couple of plays, and them's the breaks. It has been said, I think by Bear Bryant that, "You can't get your team up for every game. You can only get them up three times a year. The rest of the games, you better have more talent." I think this is a game we're going to be up for. It's one of our three, because Auburn is maybe our biggest on-field rival in the last decade, and they beat us last year. They've looked really good lately, even though they only put up 9 points last week (in a win). They still don't have a ton of weapons on offense, but their offense is greatly improved from early in the season. Still, I think we are the more talented team. We just have to go out there and play our best, and we should win. If we're playing our best, and playing spirited football, I think we're 2 or 3 touchdowns better than Auburn at their best.

Week 7 SEC Preview

They're all big weeks in the SEC, now that we're heavily into conference play. While there are no real marquee matchups unless you count LSU vs. Kentucky, there are games that will factor heavily into division races, games that may factor into coach-firings, and maybe provide us with an upset or two.

Bama at Ole Miss, 11:30am Lincoln-Financial. Those of you who are keeping up certainly know that Bama is reeling. Last week's game against the Houston Cougars came down to a last-second jump ball in the end zone after Houston's comeback from down 23. Prior to that, Bama lost two consecutive games to decent, but not great, teams. Now they get a team that is arguably the least talented in the conference. Can you name the significant wins Ed Orgeron has had at Ole Miss head coach? While they've steadily marched to 4-win seasons in recent years, they don't have a single win against the more prestigious programs. Sly Croom at Mississippi State has had one per year since 2005 (Florida, Bama, and Auburn). Ole Miss's biggest wins in that time have come against Mississippi State. Ole Miss has been close. They lost to LSU in overtime last year, and lost to Florida by 2 points earlier this year. Ole Miss may be the least talented team in the league, but there isn't a very wide disparity here like in other conferences. Hell, everyone thought they'd struggle in their quarterbacking this year in starting a former walk-on, but he's been one of the more productive QBs in the conference. Their running game is just as good as last year (but that wasn't really all that great, despite BenJarvis Green-Ellis's gaudy cumulative stats). Their defense has been their problem this year.

For Bama, this year has gone the opposite of expectations. People believed Bama's offense would be explosive, but that the defense would be suspect, forcing Bama to win a lot of games with 70 or more accumulated points. Instead, the defense has been pretty good while the offense has struggled, particularly in the passing game.

Bama's the better team, but this isn't a bad place to look for an upset. Orgeron's due for one, and Bama has really been struggling lately. Some say Orgeron's already playing for his job, but I don't know if that's true. He'll be playing for his job next year.

Tennessee at Mississippi State, 2:30pm no television. With the volume of decent conference games this week, this rather intriguing matchup gets shuffled off the regular TV rotation. It's on GamePlan, but I don't get GamePlan. Mississippi State is not the bumbling team I expected them to be, but they're still a team that will have problem winning games. This one will be no exception. Tennessee played a game last week that I never expected them to be able to play. Can they sustain it? If they can sustain that level of play, MSU has no chance against them. The Tennessee that played last week is just too explosive and just too good on defense to be beaten by a plodding mule like MSU. However, if Tennessee reverts back to the slow, tentative, spiritless play they demonstrated against Florida and Cal, the plodding mule might just get them. A loss here for Tennessee probably knocks them out of contention for the SEC East. A win for MSU makes a bowl game a distinct possibility.

LSU at Kentucky, 2:30pm CBS. We've already talked about this game, but there's more to say. Yesterday, we learned that Early Doucet has returned to practice for the Tigers. This is astoundingly good news. He makes this offense so much more versatile. Our passing game has struggled for 3 straight weeks, and you have to think it's in part because our best wide receiver has been unavailable. The guy who can break away from single coverage and make the catch consistently has been out. The guy who draws the double teams has been out. The return of Early Doucet will open up the field for us, making Lafell, Byrd, Tolliver, and the Mitchells all better. Now, with Flynn healthier and Doucet at least healthy ENOUGH to play some, we're much better than we were against South Carolina, Tulane, and Florida.

South Carolina at North Carolina, 2:30pm ABC regional coverage. I don't know much about North Carolina, but I know this. They aren't in the SEC. As such, this game, as competitive as it may or may not be, is not particularly important. SC can reach all of its goals even if they lose this game. All it will count for us bowl position. The good news for South Carolina is that North Carolina is apparently not very good. They're 2-4 on the season, having lost to unranked East Carolina and Virginia, plus South Florida and Virginia Tech.

Georgia at Vandy, 5:00pm ESPN2. Vandy is probably the most disappointing team in the conference for me. They're at 3-2, but have lost to Auburn and Bama in games in which they were not competitive at all. Their offense ranks near the bottom of the conference in scoring, passing, and rushing. That's all the major categories there, people. And I expected them to be explosive. The problem has been in their QB, sophomore Chris Nickson, who some were saying was an All-Conference calibre player. He's completing just over 50% of his passes, and in their two losses has combined for 105 passing yards with 0 touchdowns, 1 interception, and -12 rushing yards. When the games get big, he's gotten terrible. Georgia's not that great either, but they're decent, and they're an opportunity for Vandy to get off the mat and show that they're a half-decent team like I expected.

Auburn at Arkansas, 7:00pm ESPN. Houston Nutt is fighting for his job. They're 3-2, but their wins have been against non-conference patsies. Their losses have been to an unspectacular Bama team and to Kentucky. Not terrible losses, mind you, but also games the good teams are expected to win one or two of. Now they get a resurgent Auburn team. Now there's a word we're using a lot this year. "Resurgent". Auburn's being resurgent. Tennessee is being resurgent. I guess Kentucky and South Carolina are just getting surgent. If Arkansas can win this one, then they'll be resurgent as well. Like last year, Arkansas can't throw. The problem is compounded because their best receivers are all on the sidelines with injuries. Marcus Monk was supposed to be back weeks ago, but still hasn't played. Auburn's suddenly started looking very good. Their offensive line has stabilized. Their best running back returned to the field. Their receivers have started catching the ball. We knew they'd get better as the season progressed, but right now they definitely look like the stiffest competition we have in the West.

Week 6 Results Around the SEC

I'm finally getting to talking about what happened in the SEC outside of Baton Rouge. Despite what looked like some really interesting matchups, there was really only one competitive game other than the classic played between the Gators and the Fightin' Tigers. Still, we learned a lot about the SEC this week. Namely, we learned that Kentucky is a pretender. We learned South Carolina may not be a pretender. We learned that Auburn is dangerous, or maybe we just learned that I had Vandy figured wrong. Here are the results:

South Carolina 38
Kentucky 23

Kentucky got on national television and folded like a note passed in 7th grade spelling class. It was pretty ugly. Andre Woodson's numbers as a QB weren't awful, but when you consider that in addition to throwing an interception, he also fumbled twice and lost 49 yards in sacks, his fair-to-middling numbers start looking downright awful.

South Carolina looked pretty tough and stout. The young quarterback looked... like a young quarterback in a tough league, but he wasn't terrible. He avoided interceptions and threw 2 touchdown passes. The running game struggled more than in the past, but the defense scored two touchdowns.

South Carolina is one of two teams in the East that controls its destiny. They still have to play Florida, but that's not an unwinnable game for them.

Auburn 35
Vandy 7

I was looking forward to watching this, and it was over almost as soon as it started. Auburn completely smoked Vandy. The Tigers averaged 6.1 yards per carry and only gave up 88 yards in passing. Frankly, I think I overestimated Vandy. Sure, they beat Ole Miss, but whenever they've played a halfway decent team, they haven't been competitive. Quarterback Chris Nickson was awful against both Bama and Auburn.

This game was over after the first quarter, and I turned it over watch Illinois beat Wisconsin. The Fighting Zooks roll on.

Tennessee 35
Georgia 14

This game is the epitome of why I don't predict the outcome of games. Everything about this game shouted that Georgia was the better team and would win the game. Their defense has looked better. Their offense has looked both explosive and balanced. They have athletes all over the field. Tennessee looked awful both times they played a half-decent team. The whole program looked like it was in shambles, and there were rumblings that the Vols had pretty much quit on the season.

Then they went out and smoked Georgia from the opening kickoff until the game was out of reach. Now all of a sudden, Tennessee went from being a team of quitters to arguably the team to beat in the East. They have already played Florida, and they control their destiny.

Ole Miss 24
La Tech 0

I thought this would be a good game. Not this time.

Mississippi State 30
UAB 13

This game was closer than the score. UAB was winning this game well into the 4th quarter. The Bulldogs had played from behind all day before taking the lead with touchdown run 7 minutes into the 4th quarter. The Bulldogs scored two more touchdowns, including one defensive touchdown late to make the game look like a blowout.

Mississippi State is good enough to beat some of the best teams around, but not good enough to overlook anyone.

Bama 30
Houston 24

If you didn't hear already, let me be the first to tell you. This game came down to the last play, in which Bama corner Simeone Castille intercepted a jump ball in the end zone. This after Bama ended the first quarter ahead 23-0 on three touchdowns and a safety. It was almost like LSU-UAB in 2000 all over again. It would have been ugly up here, and a very unpleasant week at work, if Bama hadn't gotten the win here. The Bama fans I know don't exactly like losing, but they can accept a loss to teams that are better than they are, and some to teams that are equal to them, but a loss to a lesser team could make things ugly.

John Parker Wilson was less than effective again, and apparently Bama has decided Terry Grant is not that great of a back because he hardly played.

Arkansas 34
Chattanooga 15

The message boards buzzed about this game and a possible upset as it was going on, but Chattanoga never got closer than 14-9, where the game stood for most of the second quarter. Arkansas blew it open in the second half. Jones and McFadden were their usual selves, as was Casey Dick.

LSU 28
Florida 24

I watched some of the game again last night. I noticed that Florida really exploited the middle of the field. Most of their plays, and most of their positive plays, went to the middle of the field both in the passing game and in the running game. They didn't attack the corners very much. They went after the linebackers and the safeties.

Oh, and Jacob Hester is still the man. He is the winner of the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week Award. His numbers were hardly gaudy: 23 carries for 106 yards and 1 touchdown. Several people got better numbers around the SEC and would have been deserving, like Eric Ainge for example. But of course, there was a lot behind those numbers. The winning touchdown, the two 4th down conversions, the bruising running style that occasionally carried defensive backs with him, and let's not forget the good block on the fake field goal.

Tomorrow: a preview of the Kentucky game

Week 6 SEC Preview

This is an exciting week in the SEC. Heck, it's an exciting week nationwide, but you won't get much flavor for that here. I pretty much just cover the SEC. It sets up really nicely in the SEC with 4 quality in-conference matchups, all televised. This week, instead of putting two of the best games against one another, they moved one of the best ones to Thursday, so we can all watch it.

Anyway, here we go:

Kentucky at South Carolina: 6:30pm ESPN, Thursday. If LSU beats Florida, then this game decides who's in the driver's seat in the SEC East. It's one of the biggest matchups of the year in the East, and it's between two of the traditional bottom-feeders in the Eastern Division. It remains to be seen how the loss of Jasper Brinkley will affect USC. Kentucky will bring a dynamic offense to this game. They're a big play team. South Carolina will bring a grind-it-out offense and solid defensive play to the game. This should be an exciting game to watch.

Vandy at Auburn, 11:30am, Lincoln-Financial. Tommy Tuberville went from the hot seat to the I-might-get-a-better-job-offer seat in one game. If I was him, I'd want to leave Auburn for Texas A&M. The man has given Auburn its best sustained run of success in its history, and people are talking about firing him because he was .500 four weeks into the season. Yes, I think some criticism was justified, but the calls for firing were insane.

After this week, the calls may come again, because Vandy is anything but a pushover, and Auburn may be still on its high from beating Florida. Plus, this game is in the morning, so the Jordan-Hare stadium crowd may not be into it.

If you're Vandy, and if you want to go to a bowl game, this is another one of those difficult but winnable games on the schedule. You don't have to win this one, but you have to figure out how to win one or two of the games against the pretty good teams. It's too bad for Vandy that their best team in years coincides with South Carolina's best team in decades and Kentucky's best team in decades.

Louisiana Tech at Ole Miss, 1:00pm, no television: This is actually a pretty interesting matchup. Both of these teams are attempting to become the go-to for Louisiana recruits that LSU does not want. Ole Miss has their sights set a little higher than that, but for right now, that's what they are. Louisiana Tech is trying to take that from them under former Tiger assistant coach Derrick Dooley. These schools will probably be competing against one another for recruits in the coming years. A good result on the field for La Tech would be huge.

UAB at Mississippi State: 1:30pm, no television. MSU tries for its 4th win. They better get it, because this might well be their last win of the season. It gets much tougher from here for MSU. I think 5 wins probably saves Sly Croom's job, but they absolutely need this one to have a realistic shot. I don't think they'll be able to best two of Tennessee, W. Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss. Well, maybe they can. Like I've been saying, they're not a bad team. They'll stay in most games. They'll just have hard times winning them because they do not have a dynamic offense in any way shape or form.

Houston at Bama: 2:00pm, no television. I don't know why they want their homecoming game in the afternoon, but they do. Houston's not really SEC calibre, but they're no pushover either. They're probably about as good as Ole Miss, and a little worse than Vandy. They're a half-decent C-USA team. Bama should be able to handle them, but if Bama is off or down or otherwise not playing well, this could be trouble. If Bama shows up ready to play, they should win by 2 or 3 touchdowns at least.

Georgia at Tennessee: 2:30pm CBS. This is a nice matchup and a key game for both teams. Both have designs on winning the SEC East, but both teams have a conference loss. This is likely then an elimination game. Both teams have already lost to an SEC East opponent, and I don't think you can win this division with two losses to Eastern Division teams. Georgia's the better overall team, but it's always tough to go on the road.

Chattanooga at Arkansas: 6:00pm, no television. Has anyone noticed that Arkansas has an extremely weak OOC schedule? Troy, North Texas, Chattanooga, and Florida International.

Then of course there is Florida at LSU: 7:00pm CBS. This is the second game of a CBS double-header. I don't know if there are more than one of those or not. This is also the second CBS game LSU will play, and we're scheduled for at least 2 others later in the season (Kentucky and Arkansas). Also, the CBS Morning Show and ESPN GameDay will be on campus later this week. Do you think this is a big game? A win by LSU gives Florida a very tough road to win the East and paves the way for us to pursue an undefeated season (which would still be tough, but this may be the biggest obstacle along the way). A win by Florida puts them right back in the East race and potentially back in the national championship race.

Nationally, there are five other games between ranked teams, plus a game between Wisconsin and Illinois. If Illinois wins, they WILL be ranked.

Week 5 Arouond the SEC

This is a week where the axiom that the SEC keeps beating up on itself proved true. After this week, there are only two teams without a conference loss, and after next week, there might not be any. The surprising thing is that Kentucky is one of the teams without a loss. They are currently ranked #8 in both polls.

Of course, the big news is that LSU is now #1 in the AP poll. We remain #2 in the Coaches' Poll. After my rant the other day, I couldn't be more surprised. My theory is that most of the voters who switched over to us didn't watch any of our game, but only saw the final score, and believed USC didn't look good against Washington. I didn't watch most of the USC game, so I really can't comment on it. So we enter next week #1 in the AP poll for the first time in many decades. Remember, the AP didn't vote us #1 at the end of 2003, so this is a new experience for most LSU fans.

Alright, here we go around the SEC.

South Carolina 38
MSU 21

This game was closer than the score would indicate. The game was tied at 21 late in the 3rd quarter. MSU was within striking distance, down by 10 with about 3 1/2 minutes remaining when they made one of the most inexplicable coaching decisions I've seen in a long time. They punted the ball away. I shook my head in wonderment at the decision. South Carolina went on to score a touchdown to put it away.

USC did it with passing. Redshirt freshman Chris Smelley passed for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns as for once the USC passing game carried the offense.

MSU also lost their new starting QB to injury, meaning they're now down 2 quarterbacks.

Kentucky 45
Florida Atlantic 17

Andre Woodson put up numbers that put him on the short list for the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week with 301 yards and 5 touchdown passes against 1 interception. Despite my concerns that Kentucky was a bad game waiting to happen, they managed to avoid it this week. Next week, they get a bigger challenge with South Carolina.

Florida State 21
Alabama 14

It will be an interesting week on talk radio here in Alabama with Bama losing a winnable game, and Auburn pulling a dramatic upset. Neither of these schools' fanbases are particularly good winners, but Auburn's fans are definitely worse about it. Bama's offense was dominated by FSU's defense for most of the game. The stats here are deceiving, because Bama put up a big chunk of its yards in the back half of the 4th quarter, at times when they were behind by 14 points. Bama got 151 of its 329 total yards and all of its points on its final 2 possessions of the game. John Parker Wilson averaged less than 5 yards per pass, and the running game didn't go very far.

The good news is that the Bama defense continued to play well. The rest of the bad news is that they spent a lot of time on the field. I have a theory that a team can only play a certain number of tough, physical games in a season before it really starts to wear them down. This is especially true for a defense, and for a team with a lack of depth. Bama lacks depth, and they've now played 3 tough, physical games. They get a little break next week, playing Houston.

Arkansas 66
North Texas 7

Even Casey Dick put up good numbers in this game. He averaged 10 yards per attempt and threw 3 touchdown passes. Marcus Monk didn't return this game. Will he ever?

Vandy 30
Eastern Michigan 7

Vandy just keeps hanging around. Chris Nickson is playing pretty much like last year, getting yards both on the ground and in the air, but also throwing a lot of interceptions. They get Auburn next. That should be a fun one, and I even like Vandy's chances in it.

Georgia 45
Ole Miss 17

17 was a popular number this week for losing teams. Just an observation I'd like to share.

This game was close for a while, but Georgia rode its senior running back Thomas Brown, who got 209 yards of total offense (180 rushing, 11 receiving, 18 returning) and scored 3 touchdowns. He is the recipient of the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week for this week. Matthew Stafford didn't put up gaudy numbers, but he was effective, with 144 yards passing and 1 touchdown.

I think Georgia looks like the odds-on favorite in the East so far this year. This might look like a really foolish statement in a week or two, but I'm making it now.

Auburn 20
Florida 17

The headliner. Alright, I'm sure you've all seen the highlights, so I won't go through all that. I think the story of this game is simple. Auburn looked like a much-improved team, while Florida looked more like the immature team I expected before the season than like the juggernaut that showed up early in the season.

I really don't think Florida is that great of a team. They not only got beat, but they looked very beatable. This game was not a fluke. Auburn was able to move the ball both on the ground and in the air, and was also able to slow down Tebow's charge enough to give themselves a chance to win. They held Tebow to 276 yards of total offense, which sounds like an awful lot (and it is), but it's less than he's been getting.

They showed a way to beat Tebow. First, get penetration by your defensive line. Second, if he's running at you, tackle him low. Third, cover the receivers. Fourth, stay in your rush lanes.

Week 4: SEC Preview

There's not a whole lot of really outstanding games this weekend, but I'll give you what I've got. The interesting story-line here is that there are 4 SEC East teams going on the road to face SEC West teams. I've never noticed any East-West rivalry within the SEC, but if you feel it, watch out for how that shakes out.

Florida at Ole Miss, 11:30am Lincoln Financial: Sign #1 that this is not a great week is that this game is on television. The good news is that it's my first chance to lay eyes on Ole Miss. The bad news is that Florida is so much better than Ole Miss that we won't really get an opportunity to gauge how good Ole Miss is. Florida, of course, runs a lot of 5 receiver sets, the purpose of which is to make the opponent throw a lot of defensive backs in the games. Most teams don't have 5 or 6 really good defensive backs, allowing the offense to find the mismatches and exploit them. I think Florida will be able to find a LOT of mismatches. Still, I'll be watching.

Kentucky at Arkansas, 5:00pm ESPN2: Darren McFadden is hurt. I don't know if he's a go for this game or not. If he is, he will run all over Kentucky. If he's not, they'll have to run all over Kentucky with Felix Jones. Kentucky gives up a lot of points. Of course, Kentucky also scores a lot of points. They have good skill position offensive players and can really put some points on the board. Bama really exposed Arkansas' defensive backs last week, and Kentucky is a much better passing team than is Bama. This could be a very high scoring game.

New Mexico State at Auburn, 6:00pm GamePlan: Arkansas is reeling and looking really really bad early in the season. I have heard some talk that NMSU is not exactly a patsy. They have a pass-happy offense that puts up an average of about 37 points per game. Of course, they also give up a lot of points per game, and it remains to be seen that they can move the ball against a defense as good as Auburn's. If they can figure out how to score 3 touchdowns against Quentin Groves and company, they have a chance to win.

Gardner Webb at Mississippi State, 7:00pm XOS Webcast, whatever the hell that is: Alright, I think MSU is better than expected. I said more than once pre-season that I would be surprised if they won a conference game. Never let is be said that I have a problem admitting I got something wrong. They simply look better on defense than I ever expected. Now, considering how they looked against Auburn, and even against LSU, I think they have a SHOT against everyone left on their schedule except West Virginia. No, I'm not saying they'll end the season 10-2, but I don't think you can pencil a check in the loss column for anyone else they play. It really wouldn't surprise me at all if they figure out how to get 2 more conference wins, which, combined with wins against OOC opponents Gardner Webb and UAB, could get MSU into a bowl game. It's amazing what one unexpected win can do. They'll have a relatively easy one this week going against D-1AA opponent Gardner Webb. The drive to 6 wins is on.

Arkansas State at Tennessee, 6:00pm GamePlan: Arkie State is the team that pushed Texas on opening weekend. I don't know if that means Arkansas State is any good or not. I know one thing though: Tennessee's team is quitting on Philip Fulmer.

Georgia at Alabama, 6:45pm ESPN: Once again, Bama is the subject of one of the most interesting matchups of the week. I think it's because there are a lot of teams in the SEC that are approximately as good as Bama. Arkansas was one of them, and Georgia is another. They key to this game is Georgia's young, talented, but inconsistent quarterback Matthew Stafford. When he's good, Georgia is a very good team. When he's bad, Georgia is a rather bad team. He was good against Oklahoma State and bad against South Carolina. If Bama's defense can keep him off balance, they'll have a good weekend. If they let Stafford get into a good rhythm and stay there, it's going to be a long night.

Around the country:

There are interesting games on Thursday and Friday with TAMU going against Miami and OU going against Tulsa. I don't know much about these teams, but OU's supposed to be a national championship contender.

Penn State at Michigan, 2:30pm ABC and GamePlan: The Lloyd Carr watch continues. A loss here against 10th ranked Penn State would put another nail in Carr's coffin. I have nothing against Lloyd Carr, but I'd much rather he be fired this year than hang around another year or two with the vultures circling. If Les Miles is going to leave, let him do it now rather than have his standing at LSU questioned for years. If Carr leaves Michigan and Miles isn't hired to replace him, we'll know we have Miles for a while. That's certainly what I want, but if I can't have that, I'd rather get settled in with a new coach as soon as possible.

Washington State at USC, 7:00pm ABC: If you're on a national championship/USC/Joe McKnight watch, tune into this game. Washington State is 2-1 right now, having lost to top 10 Wisconsin. Can they give USC a game? I guess so. Will they? Probably not, I guess.

East Carolina at West Virginia, 11:00am ESPN: It will be interesting to see if ECU can do to West Virginia what they did to Virginia Tech. That is to say, if ECU can throw off West Virginia offense, keep the score low, and have a chance to win it late. I doubt it, because WVU hass a lot more dynamic of an offense than does Virginia Tech.