Max Holmes Leaves the Football Team

Good luck to this fella. This is Max Holmes, and he has decided to leave the LSU football team to transfer to Stephen F. Austin to play out his final year of eligibility.

Max was part of Nick Saban's last recruiting class in 2004, and was one of only 10 players still remaining on the team from that class. Holmes is not leaving out of discontent or anything of the sort. By all accounts he loved his time at LSU and gave his all in his role as a backup offensive lineman.

Max Holmes is leaving LSU because he has graduated, and has decided to enroll in a graduate program at Stephen F. Austin this year rather than next. His future is not in football, and he has decided to move forward with his future now rather than play out another year as a backup lineman. He has one year of eligibility remaining, which he will be able to use at SFA. After that, he'll be just another really big dude with a good education and some nice stories to tell about his time on a championship-calibre college football team.

Because Holmes is a senior, it was expected that he would be leaving his scholarship open for a 2009 recruit anyway, so this defection does not help for the 2009 class. It does, however, open up a scholarship spot for a walk-on who has been with the team for a little while. We have no idea who that is yet, but any time you fall under the 85 scholarship limit, which it appears we will for this year, a walk-on gets a little help.

Good luck, Max. Represent us well in whatever you do.

Another Defection From the Team, but This Time It's OK

Redshirt sophomore guard Matt Allen has decided to transfer to another school. It is not known where he is going, but say it may be Texas A&M.

Matt Allen was the last remaining offensive lineman from the disappointing 2006 offensive line class, no member of which remains on the team. Zhamal Thomas was dismissed for off-field issues. Steven Singleton left the team for reasons unknown. Injuries forced the end of Mark Snyder's career, and now Matt Allen has decided to go in another direction.

As I wrote back in March of 2007, not all attrition is bad. Because of the dreaded 85/25 rule, attrition is a necessary part of big-time college football. As a reminder, the 85/25 rule says that a college football program can add as many as 25 new scholarship players per year, but can only have 85 scholarship players at a time. It means that you can bring in 25 scholarship players per year, but after 3 years you're going to have to worry about that 85-number.

When a player does not develop as hoped and appears to not be able to be a solid contributor, the best thing for the team and that player is that he move on to another program where he will play more. This frees up a scholarship for that year and allows a team to add a new young player who may develop better.

Such is the case with Matt Allen. He has been in the system for two years, redshirting his first year and then not playing a down in his second year. In the Spring, he was passed by players who have not been in the system as long as he has, and apparently has been passed by Will Blackwell, who is coming over from the defensive line. With another big class of offensive linemen reporting in June, Matt saw the handwriting on the wall and decided to move on to another school and another team.

I recall that in the 2007 offseason, a lot of people thought highly of Matt Allen. They saw a mean-streak in him that you appreciate in an offensive lineman. Many compared him to Eric Andolsek, but he apparently simply did not develop the skills necessary to play at this level. He was 3rd string behind Herman Johnson and Will Arnold/Arnold Miller last year. He would likely have been 3rd string again this year, behind Herman Johnson and Will Blackwell. There is nothing left to do but wish him luck.

With the LSU football program currently butting up against the 85-number, the net effect is that LSU can sign one more recruit for the 2009 class, though I am fairly certain that we need still more attrition to be able to reach the consensus target number of 20 recruits.

Spring Practice Over

Spring practice at LSU is officially over, with a special celebratory "Spring Game" on Saturday, open to the general public.

As everyone knows, Spring Games have taken on new meaning in the wake of the excitement brought on by a certain someone who arrived in Tuscaloosa a little over a year ago.  More on that perhaps tomorrow, but I want to talk about the actual players right now.

The big battles of the Spring were at quarterback, right tackle, safety, and cornerback.  Everyone knows the quarterback situation and why the battle between Jarrett Lee and Andrew Hatch was so important.  To hear talk, it appears that Lee has put a little distance between himself and Hatch.  Lee simply has a stronger and more accurate arm, and can make the throws better than Hatch.  Lee just has to learn game management and how to make the right decisions and he can be a very good quarterback.  He's got the physical tools, and reportedly has a very good work ethic.  He just has to put it all together.  Let's hope what he has won is the backup quarterback position.

Jordan Jefferson will arrive in the fall to challenge, but I really believe the staff would much prefer to redshirt Jefferson, though he may have to play if Perrilloux has further problems.  I think it's unrealistic, however, to believe a true freshman has a real chance to beat out a veteran at a position with such a long learning curve as quarterback. There is just too much to learn, and too many ways that the practice time that Lee has gotten will help him. Jefferson will be in the mix later in his career, but won't play this year unless there is attrition of quarterbacks or the veterans are ineffective.

At right tackle, we have to replace departed senior Carnell Stewart.  True sophomores Joseph Barksdale and Jarvis Jones engaged in a good battle for the position throughout Spring, but it appears that Barksdale leaves Spring with the upper hand.  Both Barksdale and Jones earned substantial playing time as true freshman reserves last year, and both figure to be on track to crack the starting lineup before long one way or another, but for now it appears Barksdale will be our 2008 starting right tackle barring injury. This is somewhat as expected, as Barksdale came in much more heralded (though at defensive tackle rather than offensive line) than Jarvis Jones, who frankly has been a big surprise since joining the team.

Cornerback is obviously a position where there is much wringing of hands and furrowing of brow.  We lost two seniors to graduation, and we had no one behind them get any substantial playing time.  The battle in the Spring was between four young players: Junior Chris Hawkins, Sophomore Jai Eugene, and redshirt freshmen Ron Brooks and John Williams.  Hawkins and Eugene ran with the 1's all Spring, and there were reports either Brooks or Williams may switch to offense at some point.  Eugene of course was a very highly prized recruit in Les Miles' first full recruiting class.  That class honestly has been somewhat disappointing, but if the members of that class are ever going to make a move to the top of the depth charts, now is the time.  I do not have any feeling on how these corners will look in the Fall when the games start, but for right now it looks like Eugene and Hawkins are our starting cornerbacks.

The arrival of Patrick Johnson in the Fall could shake that up.  He's a very highly regarded 5-star recruit out of Florida that many people think can win the job outright.  He has been described as the most physically gifted cornerback to come out of high school in several years, and the best cornerback prospect LSU has ever had.

Last but not least, at strong safety we have to replace All-American Craig Steltz.  The competition is between last year's backup Harry Coleman, who played so well in the BCSNCG when Steltz had to leave with an injury, and sophomore Chad Jones, who looks like an eventual All-American type but seems like more of a free safety than a strong safety.  Chad Jones skipped out on participating in baseball in order to concentrate on this competition.  These two guys split time at the 1's, and it appears the battle for the starting safety spot is not even close to being decided yet.

Virginia Tech: The First Replay

I watched the replay of the Virginia Tech game for the first time yesterday morning. Tivo is the most wonderful invention since the wheel, by the way. To review, when watching a game in real time, I watch the ball, like most people. When watching a replay of a game I've seen before, I watch specific players to see what they're doing and whether or not they're executing.

On the first replay, just like last week, I watched right tackle Carnell Stewart on offense and right defensive ends Kirston Pittman (no relation) and Rahim Alem.

Carnell Stewart was improved approximately 1000% from last week. He really struggled against Titus Brown last week, but was quite good against Virginia Tech. The only miscues were one false start penalty and a sack against. Other than those two plays, he was a very helpful member of the offensive line.

His best block of the night was on the play pictured above. Stewart got out to the second level of the defense and pancaked a Tech linebacker, helping to spring Keiland Williams for an electrifying touchdown run.

He also pass blocked very well, giving up only the one sack, but no further QB hurries or pressures.

Watching Stewart closely, he still has to work on getting blocks at the second level of the defense. As mentioned, he pancaked the linebacker to spring Williams for a touchdown, but on every other play which required him to block someone other than a lineman, he struggled to get his body on a defender.

When he was blocking a lineman, however, he did a very admirable job. He kept his man out of the backfield on running plays, and kept his man away from the QB on passing plays for the most part. I can't say he always kept his man from making a tackle, because it's not true, but he never let his man make a big play. He's not our best lineman, but he certainly didn't look out ofo place last night.

If I was grading him, I'd give him a B- for the Virginia Tech game. If that doesn't sound great, keep in mind that his grade in the Mississippi State game would charitably have been a D.

On defense, Kirston Pittman did a much better job of disrupting plays and making tackles than last time. He was really kept in check against MSU by left tackle Michael Brown, who usually kept him out of the play with a one-person block. In contrast, against Virginia Tech, Pittman spent a good bit of time in the backfield or chasing down a ball-carrier. He didn't make every play, of course. No one ever does. He was a much bigger factor against Virginia Tech, however.

Rahim Alem is clearly behind Kirston Pittman at this point. He is not as effective as Pittman when he's in the game, but he managed to get a sack on Saturday, which I believe is the first of his career.

Honestly, after watching the replay of the Virginia Tech game, I have a lot more respect for what MSU was able to do with us. Sure, our defense was very dominant against MSU, but their left tackle and right defensive end had excellent games against us, and were much better than their counterparts on Virginia Tech.

Common Themes of the Week

With gratuitous image of Mr. Peabody and Sherman. What sort of a dog is Mr. Peabody anyway? He looks kind of like a terrier.

As I watched football this past week, one thing could not avoid my notice. A lot of teams that struggled did so because they couldn't block. Despite our big win, our offense struggled somewhat because we had a hard time blocking. Auburn couldn't block, and should have lost to an unranked team. Notre Dame couldn't block, and lost by 30 to Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech couldn't block, and beat a n unaccomplished mid-major team by only 10 points, and that only because they got a defensive touchdown, getting only 10 yards rushing along the way. Florida State couldn't block in the first half and went behind by 21.

It was the one thing common to almost every game I watched. Tennessee-Cal was the only exception, as both teams had successful offenses and good blocking.One team or the other had trouble on the offensive line. We were the only team to struggle on the offensive line and not either lose or survive a scare, and our game was in doubt until the last play of the first half.

I don't think I'm presenting anything novel here, and I don't think we need Mr. Peabody to explain it to us (ha! I did manage to make the Mr. Peabody picture non-gratuitous). It's simple, really. If you can't block, you can't run or pass. If you can't run or pass, you can't succeed on offense. If you can't succeed on offense....

The other thing I noticed, and this became glaringly obvious when watching Clemson play Florida State (I only saw the first half, then went to bed), was that right now we don't have a playmaking running back. Or if we do, that playmaking running back hasn't emerged yet. I watched CJ Spiller and James Davis run over and around Seminole after Seminole and I realized we don't have anyone who can do that. It's a weakness of the team that certainly makes us less explosive.

Honestly, so far this team lacks any apparent offensive playmakers other than Early Doucet, and he's not really a score-from-anywhere sort of guy. Early is a great possession receiver and is great in the red zone, but he's not really a threat to take it to the house from midfield. Another playmaker on offense will have to emerge quickly, or it will seriously hurt the team. Whether it's a receiver or running back, we need a big threat.

Mississippi State: The Second Replay

If you're ever seen Rocky & Bullwinkle, they always had a "Coming Up Next" gag where the next segment would have two names, each with a play on words of the other. For example, it might say, "Be with us next time for 'Avalanche is Better than None,' or 'Snow's Your Old Man."

This post should be called, "The Second Replay" or "Ciron Song for Odysseus."

Too literary?

Anyway, early this morning, I watched the replay a second time. This time I focused on Ciron Black on offense, and on the linebacker crew on defense.

To not bury the lede even further, let me just say that Ciron Black has to play better than he did on Thursday. He certainly wasn't bad, and definitely didn't hurt us as much as Carnell Stewart did, but Ciron was a pre-season 2nd team All-SEC. He didn't get much push. He gave up two sacks. He gave up a lot of pressure on Flynn. He wasn't All-SEC calibre on Thursday. If we want to win championships, our best lineman has to get a push and has to stop the rush.

That's really all there is to say about that.

The linebackers were dominate, as was the whole defense of course. The message boards really like to get on Luke Sanders' case, but let me come to his defense. He registered 1.5 tackles against MSU, which certainly isn't a gaudy stat. But it's partially explained by the fact that he leaves the game in nickel situations, and we're in nickel about half the time. If Danny McCray (#44) is on the field, Luke Sanders (#35) is not.

Also, Luke disrupted more than one running play by taking on a lead blocker. People don't often understand the value of taking out a lead blocker. Some see a guy take out a lead blocker and think, "Well, he just got blocked." The lead blocker isn't just looking to block someone. He's looking to open up a hole for the ball carrier. If you take on a lead blocker at the right time, he can't make a hole. He'll just FILL a hole. Taking on a lead blocker and making him an obstacle for his running back usually results in a good play for the defense.

Ali Highsmith was all over the field. He got embarrassed on one play when Anthony Dixon stiff-armed him right in front of the camera, but he overall had a very good game. Where Sanders takes on blockers, Highsmith goes like a laser to the ball.

Darry Beckwith is just a stud.

**************************************

Off of the immediate subject, if the game had an overarching narrative, it was the story of MSU's changing attitude towards itself. You could really see it from the footage of pre-game and the media talk of MSU being an improved team, through the end of the game when it became clear that MSU isn't really any better than they have been in the recent past.

Croom has been there 4 years. He has mostly his own recruits, and the team now has his personality. When Croom was recruiting back in 2004, THIS was the team he told people he wanted them to make. And it's not good. As the game progressed, you saw that realization dawn on them and on the announcers. You saw them come to understand that they simply are not competitive with the best teams in the conference.

In Croom's fourth year at the helm, MSU appears to be no better of a team than when he found it. I honestly thought Croom would have a lot more success in Starkville, but I was wrong.

More on Will and Other Topics

Brief points:

1. It turns out that ESPN article on Will Arnold was actually ESPN The Magazine's preview of LSU in its pre-season rankings. That was the ENTIRETY of its LSU preview. Two paragraphs on our injury-prone left guard. ESPN The Magazine sucks.
2. It looks like Chad Jones, the strong safety-linebacker hybrid who almost went to minor league baseball, will start the season returning punts. This kid must be a phenomenal athlete.
3. It appears the starting O-line will be LT Ciron Black, LG Herman Johnson, C Brett Helms, RG Lyle Hitt, and RT Carnell Stewart, which was exactly how it ended in the Spring. Will Arnold, the oft-injured and now-recovering guard will begin the season as Herman Johnson's backup. If he gets to the point where he can be a starter, I suppose he'll move into the left guard position and Herman Johnson will move over to right guard.
4. It looks like no one has so far challenged Brandon Lafell for the #2 receiver spot, and the #3 spot remains wide open. Newcomer Terrance Toliver has impressed everyone, but hasn't separated himself from Jared and Chris Mitchell.
5. All-American defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey has missed a lot of practice with various injuries, but claims it's all precautionary, and that he could play in a game at any time.
6. Safety Danny McCray appears to have beaten out the competition for the nickel back spot in the defensive backfield. Jai Eugene appears to be the dime back. Danny McCray came out of nowhere last season as a true freshman to win meaningful playing time last year in a defensive backfield that included several pro prospects.
   

A Bit of Good News

There are two items of good news to report this morning.

First, the deadline for the Houston Astros to sign Chad Jones has come and gone, and Chad Jones will be at LSU this year, playing football and baseball. With Jones not signing a contract, he will be at LSU for at least the next 3 years.

Chad Jones is a great athlete. He's about 220 pounds and is being looked at to join Trindon Holliday returning kicks. He's as big as a linebacker and as fast as a cornerback. He was one of LSU's most coveted recruits last year. He will be an excellent player for the LSU football team, and it appears he'll probably stand out on the baseball field as well.

Second, according to a post on TigerDroppings, Will Arnold talked to ESPN about his health, and it appears that ESPN may have referenced little old me. I was unable to find the alleged ESPN article, but here's what it said.

Will Arnold doesn't cruise message boards for news. He might go for a laugh every now and again, though. LSU's senior guard knows he's got a past checkered by injuries, but some of the tall tales fans write about his well-being are priceless. The misinformed say Arnold has had 18 different surgeries (he's had seven, and five were minor scopes), and that he's fat (he's 319, six pounds below his listed high school weight). Some suggest he's so fragile, the coaches should determine now which games he'll play (their advice: Hold him out of the showdown with Virginia Tech; it's not a conference game).

"If I listened to all those people," Arnold says, "I'd be crazy." To be fair, the guy does offer plenty of fodder for white-coat wannabes. He missed half of last season after tearing ligaments in his ankle, and doctors used a piece of his hamstring to make the joint stronger. But while he's still on the mend, Arnold sees no reason his final season down on the Bayou can't be a healthy one. "I'll always fight it," he says of the injury-prone tag. "All I can do is play." When he does, he anchors the SEC's best line, and Arnold is as good as it gets in the middle. He has drawn just two flags in 23 games, and one was in his first game as a freshman. How sick is that?

(emphasis added). Hey! That's what I said. I also said it at Tiger Forums, but I can't find the post, no matter how much I look. Alright, in not so many words, they are saying I'm full of it.
But hey, at least they're talking about me.

At least the article strongly implies that Will will be healthy enough to play, and that the rumors of him having 18 surgeries on his knees is wrong, although 7 surgeries with two of them serious still sounds like an awful lot. Will Arnold patrolling the line of scrimmage makes our offensive line much better. I still think the coaching staff has to face facts and realize he won't be able to go full speed for a whole season. He hasn't yet, so why would he suddenly be able to do so now?

Early Practice Observations

If I had made a post about What to Watch For in Fall Practice, I would have undoubtedly said:

• Watch the wide receivers to see who emerges behind Early Doucet;
• Watch the offensive line to see how Will Arnold is doing and whether anyone is pushing the starters;
• Watch the running back rotation to see who's getting the reps;
  
• Watch to see how the true freshmen integrate onto the team; and
  
• Watch the special teams.

Now that there has been about 1 1/2 weeks of practice and a scrimmage, there is perhaps enough information (known to the media) to make a few observations on these and other topics.

Les Miles commented yesterday that newcomers Terrance Toliver and Demetrius Byrd were in the lead for the 3rd wide receiver spot behind Doucet and, presumably, Lafell. If those two have passed Chris Mitchell, Jared Mitchell, and Ricky Dixon already, that spells bad news for those three guys getting real playing time in the foreseeable future.

Will Arnold briefly played at Right Guard, a position he has never played, but moved back to Left Guard after a couple practices. He's also already missed quite a bit of practice time in the training room. Will Arnold at Left Guard troubles me. That's the spot where Herman Johnson really emerged as a player. Herman is a versatile guy, and has played Left Guard, Right Guard, and Right Tackle in his career. He showed out when he was moved to Left Guard following Arnold's injury, and now I guess he's either going to hold Arnold out of the lineup there or he will have to be moved to make room for a guy who probably is only going to play a part-time schedule. I don't like it.

As near as we can tell, Ciron Black and Brett Helms written in ink as starters at Left Tackle and Center respectively, but every other position is open to competition and/or uncertainty. Herman Johnson will certainly be playing somewhere on that line, but it remains to be seen where. Miles has praised the play of true freshmen Jarvis Jones, Josh Dworaczyk, Ernest McCoy, and Joseph Barksdale. Jones, Dworaczyk, and Barksdale are Tackles and McCoy is a Guard. It is also possible that one of those guys or a redshirt freshman like Matt Allen will push Lyle Hitt or Carnell Stewart for the starting jobs.

At running back, Richard Murphy is expected to be a star, but he's been limited by nagging injuries so far. His absence has given Charles Scott an opportunity to get more reps, and it will be interesting to see if Scott, who started 2006 so strongly, can earn playing time in this rotation.

Three true freshmen have dominated the headlines from practice. Stevan Ridley has surprised everyone with his skill and athleticism at practice. He did very well in the first scrimmage, albeit he was playing against the 3rd string defense. It appears that Ridley has earned an extended look at tailback and may not be moved to linebacker or fullback as was expected during his recruitment. I sincerely doubt Ridley moves up the depth charts at tailback this year, but perhaps he will redshirt and become a part of the NEXT generation of tailbacks.

The second true freshman getting headlines is Chad Jones. Either Miles is very impressed or is blowing smoke you-know-where to keep him from signing with the Astros. Jones is reported to be a shoe-in to get a lot of playing time at special teams and may even return kicks, which I find amazing for a guy who weighs 220 pounds. He is a great athlete, and it's just inevitable that he's going to get on the field one way or another.

The third true freshman is Terrance Toliver, who has already been mentioned. It really is impressive that in this talented wide receiver corps, Toliver is getting so much attention. Michael Clayton was the last true freshman wide receiver to earn a lot of playing time, but the talent level at the position was not nearly as good then as it is now. Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis didn't play all that much as true freshmen, and Early Doucet (though he played) was pretty far down the charts. What does this say about Toliver's ability?

Special teams are still something of a mystery. It looks like Patrick Fisher will be the punter, but we don't really know how good he will be. The kickoff kicker has not been decided yet, and the return-men are still up in the air, except that we know Trindon will be one of the kickoff return men. Early Doucet was the other kickoff returner last year, but they may want to take him out to protect him. Plus, he just wasn't all that big of a threat returning the ball. I think we can probably do better there AND protect one of our best players. Our punt returner from last season graduated. Personally, I hope Trindon earns that spot too.

That's all for now. We're only 18 days away from kickoff, and I've been excited about it for a long time already. Anticipation is killing me.

No Worries Mate, Part II

Part II of an as-yet indeterminately-lengthed series on things I think can derail this very good team we have.

All football teams are vulnerable to injuries. It's just a fact of life. Everyone from USC down to Southern Miss can have their hopes dashed by key injuries to the wrong players.

The player pictured at the top of this blog is definitely one of the "big uglies". He is Mark Snyder, an offensive tackle who was running with the second team. He's also the first victim of a serious injury for the LSU football team this season. In his second practice of the season, he injured his knee, apparently rather seriously. He will likely be out for quite some time, if not the entire season.

It's a position where LSU is vulnerable. We have a very talented offensive line, and lots of depth in the middle of the line, but very little at the edges. It now appears that the #3 offensive tackle on the team may be a true freshman. If there is any injury to the starters Ciron Black and Carnell Stewart, we will either have to shuffle the line to play players out of position, or stick a true freshman in the game against SEC-calibre defensive linemen.

Where else are we vulnerable? Actually, with our depth of talent, we'll be more able to sustain injuries than most teams, but that's not to say we're invulnerable. Here are players or positions where we are most vulnerable:

1. Early Doucet, WR. He's our best and most experienced wide receiver. He's an All-American candidate wide receiver on a team where no other returning wideout had more than 6 catches last year. Talent and athleticism are available behind him, but Doucet is clearly the go-to guy and there will be a big drop-off is he goes down.

2. Chevis Jackson and Jonathan Zenon, CB. Both of our starting corners are pre-season All-SEC players. No one behind them has ever played a down of college football. Once again, there is a lot of talent, and a lot of players who are expected to have very good careers, but we want to ease them into the lineup, not throw them to the wolves.

3. Tyson Jackson, DE. With the apparent loss of Ricky Jean-Francois to academic problems, the defensive end spot becomes a lot more vulnerable. Tyson Jackson is possibly an All-America calibre player. Behind him ar a number of very solid players like Tremaine Johnson, Rahim Alem, and Kirston Pittman, one of whom will be lining up opposite him. But Tyson Jackson is the man. If he is lost, there will be a big drop-off.

4. Matt Flynn, QB. Obviously, any team that loses its starting QB will have some problems. We have a backup QB with a lot of promise, and it makes us somewhat less vulnerable to injury here than a lot of teams, but Perrilloux has clearly lost the competition for the starting job, and appears that he may not quite be ready to be a team leader. You'd like to see him keep his opportunity to understudy and mature before he becomes the starter. If he is forced into starting action now, the team will suffer for it.

Other positions do not have me so worried. This is better than a lot of teams, most of whom can't sustain ANY significant injuries to players in the two-deep without suffering serious consequences. However, if we lose a tight end or an offensive tackle to injury, even a guy like Glenn Dorsey, the team will probably be OK. It'll be a setback, and definitely will hurt, but not as much as it will hurt other teams.

O-Line Stats Part One

This is part one of Poseur’s two-part series for offensive line statistics.

One of the hardest things to evaluate in football is line play, just because there is a complete dearth of analytical tools at our disposal. We are pretty much at the mercy of common wisdom, which becomes a sort of group think. Team X has a good line because one expert said so, who is usually parroting another expert who is parroting another. And our statistical toolbox is virtually empty for evaluating lines.

I’m trying to rectify that. Now, I’m not claiming my o-line states are flawless. No statistic is, but it at least gives us something to start a debate with. It gives us a context to objectively evaluate the lines. Before I unveil the system, let’s admit the difficulties and flaws of creating an objective statistic for offensive line play.

First, an offensive line works as a unit, not as a bunch of individuals. At no position is the cliché “only as good as the weakest link” as true as it is with the offensive line play. So I don’t even attempt to evaluate individual linemen. If you want to know how good Ben Grubbs is, I really can’t help you. The system here is to evaluate each unit as a group.

Secondly, everything an offensive line is dependent on someone else. The line has essentially two jobs: prevent sacks and open up holes for the running game. So by counting the sacks or the average yards per carry is not just the responsibility of the line, it is determined by the mobility of the quarterback or the skill of a running back. This is an unavoidable fact of ANY football stat. Every statistic is influenced by more than just the player being evaluated. Receptions are a function not of a receiver’s skill but of the quarterback’s skill and the coach’s decision to throw the ball. Hell, every running stat has been dependent on the offensive line and we don’t throw those numbers out, so turnabout seems like fair play. Isolation of a skill in football statistics is frankly an impossible task.

Finally, opportunity matters. The number of sacks allowed for a pass-happy team like Kentucky is not the same as the run-oriented offense of Arkansas. This is actually a fairly easy problem to rectify, as we will look solely at rate stats. It’s not raw sack totals or raw rushing yards, but sacks per attempts and yards per attempt. This puts teams on an equal footing regardless of their offensive philosophy.

So, onto the system itself.

Like I mentioned, the offensive line has essentially two jobs: preventing sacks and opening up holes for the running game. Which means we can evaluate the line in two separate facets of the game: the running game and the passing game.

PASSING
It’s actually pretty easy. Take the total number of allowed sacks compared to the total number of pass attempts. OK, not exactly because there is some slight modifications needed. In college, sacks count as rushing attempts, not pass attempts, so the sacks have to be added to the total number of pass attempts. Also, to put the number on a more readable scale, we multiply the result by 100. It leaves us with this formula:

100*Sacks/(Pass Attempts + Sacks)

Taking the average SEC team, we plug in these numbers: 24 sacks and 359 attempts (actually, 24.167 and 358.583). The average team allows 6.739 sacks per 100 pass attempts.

RUSHING
Well, we can’t use simple yards per attempt because of the problem with sacks. Sacks count as rushes, not as pass attempts and we need to avoid penalizing a team twice for allowing a sack. The modified yards per rush formula we’ll evaluate offensive lines purely on rushing with is this:

(Rush Yards – Sack Yards)/(Rush Attempts – Sacks)

Once again, taking the average SEC team, let’s plug in some numbers. The average team attempts 435 rushes on the season, gains 1815 yards, and allows 24 sacks for 165 yards (actual figures: 435.333 rushes, 1815.083 yard, 24.167 sacks, and 165.083 yards). The average team averages 3.938 yards per attempt.

PUTTING IT TOGETHER
We’ve now encountered another problem. The numbers are on completely different scales. Take a look at the average team: 6.739 sacks and 3.938 yards/rush. If we work on the assumption that pass blocking is equally important as rush blocking, it’s impossible to simply add those numbers together. The ratio is too bizarre.

What we need to do is get these two variables on the same scale. And here we turn to one of our friends from your college statistics course: standard deviation.

We can take figure out how many standard deviations a team’s performance has been from the mean in both run blocking and pass blocking. This puts both variables on the same scale and also makes the numbers completely dependant on how the rest of the league has performed. We’ll call each computation of the number of standard deviations the PSCORE and the RSCORE.

Then, it’s a simple matter of adding the two numbers together to get an OLINE score. To keep the total number from being a long decimal, I multiply the result by 100 just to make it more readable.

This also means that 0 is a perfectly average offensive line. Any number in the negative is a below average team, and any number in the positive range is above average. Since this is running a bit long, we’ll put this into practice and apply these formulas to last year’s SEC teams in the next installment. There are some surprises on who ranks as a quality and poor offensive line. But without spoiling the suspense, Arkansas’ line was not just awesome, it was fucking awesome. It was every bit as good as we thought it was.

So at least the numbers passed the early smell test.