This is What the BCS Is For

Like it or hate it (and I am ambivalent), the BCS is designed to do exactly this. It is designed to decide who gets to the BCS National Championship Game between multiple teams with legitimate claims to it. It has done that, and we have benefited.

I won't pretend that we have a perfect claim to a shot at the national championship. We're the first two-loss team ever in it, and we lost to an unranked team late in the year. There's no question that we are not the 2005 USC team. But no one is this year. Not even Ohio State's claim to it is perfect (quick, name three good teams Ohio State beat). No one in history has backed into a title game more egregiously than Ohio State just did, by not playing for two consecutive weekends while moving up due to other teams' losses.

Heck, if we had stopped playing football the week before Thanksgiving, no one would be complaining about us getting in the game either.

I'm not saying Ohio State doesn't deserve to be in it, but if we're not the 2005 USC team, they're not the 2005 Texas team either. The computers ranked you a distant 3rd behind LSU and Virginia Tech, and the voters saved you, mainly because you failed to lose more than once.

And Georgia, you aren't the 2004 Auburn Tigers. You are not being screwed here. You're being passed over, but you're not being screwed. If you want to be crowned the best team in the country, you first have to be crowned the best team in the conference. It may not be a definitive rule, but the voters were pretty clear on this matter. Heck, even the computers didn't exactly love you, ranking you 4th overall.

I'm not saying Georgia is no good. I would not do that. I think Georgia is very good, and they aren't exactly wrong when they say that they finished the season as the strongest team in the conference. They didn't start that way though, and they weren't that way in mid-season when they got blown out by Tennessee. Tennessee beat them by 21, but I watched that game and they could have beaten them by more but they shut it down early because they knew it was in the bag.

Virginia Tech? They have a legitimate claim, as does Oklahoma and USC. But, this is what the BCS does. It decides between teams with legitimate claims according to a known set of rules. It chose us. USC would be sitting pretty if they hadn't lost to Stanford, and Oklahoma would be in if they hadn't lost to Colorado. Virginia Tech would be in it if they had even kept it close against us in September (I think).

I certainly think that whatever happens in this game, the legitimacy of this championship will be discussed for years to come. I don't have a problem with that. They don't call it the Mythical National Championship for nothing. And if it weren't for disputed national championships, what would Bama fans have to talk about?

I kid. I kid.

OK, bottom line. We won our conference. The voters made us a very strong 2nd place. The computers made us a very strong 2nd place. We're in. To the extent the whole thing is objective (computers), we passed. To the extent it's subjective (voters), we passed. No one beat more good teams. No one else won a conference as tough as ours. No one near the top played a schedule as strong as ours. We may not have dominated that schedule, and in other years we probably would not have made the championship game with our losses, but this is this year. It's not other years. We're in, and we deserve it. We have nothing to apologize for.

Virginia Tech: The Second Replay

With further gratuitous imagery of Mr. Peabody and Sherman. This replay, I watched left tackle Ciron Black on offense and the linebacker/nickelback Luke Sanders/Danny McCray combination on defense.

Last week, I said that Ciron Black had to play better than he played against MSU. He's a 2nd team pre-season All-SEC who gave up sacks and failed to get push. Well, against Virginia Tech, he played like an All-SEC offensive lineman. He dominated upfront, didn't allow any pressure on the quarterback, and unlike Carnell Stewart he got out in front and was able to block at the second level consistently. He was dominant, just as he needs to be.

On defense, I just have to say that Luke Sanders has to be the most often-criticized part-time player in LSU football history. If you watch the message boards, you'd think Luke Sanders was the worst linebacker in history. If you watch the game, you'll notice he's only in the game in the base 4-3 set. When LSU goes into its nickel package, Sanders is removed and safety Danny McCray is inserted. LSU is in its nickel package about half the time or more.

Despite his limited playing time, Luke Sanders made some plays this past week. He made a big tackle on an outside run by Brandon Ore, and forced another outside run back to the inside where another player was able to make the tackle. I would encourage people to lay off of Luke Sanders and accept him for what he is, a competent part-time player.

Other points will be made by bullets.

• I've watched this game 3 times, and every single time, I hope that Chris Hawkins will catch that interception in the final minute and return it for a touchdown.
• Virginia Tech did not complete a single pass against our cornerbacks. Every single completed was a short pass in the linebackers' zone or in front of the cornerbacks. Every time they threw against Jackson, Zenon, Eugene, or Hawkins, it fell incomplete.
• I criticize ESPN a lot. I mean a LOT. I criticize the GameDay crew most of all, but I have to give Kirk Herbstreit credit. He really did his homework and knew this LSU team pretty well.
• Ryan Perrilloux has the highest GeauxTuscaloosa Quarterback Productivity Index in the SEC, though it's in a limited role.
• I was very happy to read in the last few days that Virginia Tech fans had nothing bad to say about our hospitality.
  

Tomorrow, we start our preview of the coming week. Unfortunately, i won't be seeing the game as I'll be at a wedding while it's going on.

Virginia Tech: The First Replay

I watched the replay of the Virginia Tech game for the first time yesterday morning. Tivo is the most wonderful invention since the wheel, by the way. To review, when watching a game in real time, I watch the ball, like most people. When watching a replay of a game I've seen before, I watch specific players to see what they're doing and whether or not they're executing.

On the first replay, just like last week, I watched right tackle Carnell Stewart on offense and right defensive ends Kirston Pittman (no relation) and Rahim Alem.

Carnell Stewart was improved approximately 1000% from last week. He really struggled against Titus Brown last week, but was quite good against Virginia Tech. The only miscues were one false start penalty and a sack against. Other than those two plays, he was a very helpful member of the offensive line.

His best block of the night was on the play pictured above. Stewart got out to the second level of the defense and pancaked a Tech linebacker, helping to spring Keiland Williams for an electrifying touchdown run.

He also pass blocked very well, giving up only the one sack, but no further QB hurries or pressures.

Watching Stewart closely, he still has to work on getting blocks at the second level of the defense. As mentioned, he pancaked the linebacker to spring Williams for a touchdown, but on every other play which required him to block someone other than a lineman, he struggled to get his body on a defender.

When he was blocking a lineman, however, he did a very admirable job. He kept his man out of the backfield on running plays, and kept his man away from the QB on passing plays for the most part. I can't say he always kept his man from making a tackle, because it's not true, but he never let his man make a big play. He's not our best lineman, but he certainly didn't look out ofo place last night.

If I was grading him, I'd give him a B- for the Virginia Tech game. If that doesn't sound great, keep in mind that his grade in the Mississippi State game would charitably have been a D.

On defense, Kirston Pittman did a much better job of disrupting plays and making tackles than last time. He was really kept in check against MSU by left tackle Michael Brown, who usually kept him out of the play with a one-person block. In contrast, against Virginia Tech, Pittman spent a good bit of time in the backfield or chasing down a ball-carrier. He didn't make every play, of course. No one ever does. He was a much bigger factor against Virginia Tech, however.

Rahim Alem is clearly behind Kirston Pittman at this point. He is not as effective as Pittman when he's in the game, but he managed to get a sack on Saturday, which I believe is the first of his career.

Honestly, after watching the replay of the Virginia Tech game, I have a lot more respect for what MSU was able to do with us. Sure, our defense was very dominant against MSU, but their left tackle and right defensive end had excellent games against us, and were much better than their counterparts on Virginia Tech.

Virginia Tech: The Historic Beat Down

Wow. That was utter domination. Where last week our offense looked very pedestrian in simply taking the easy scores the defense gave us, this time both sides of the ball looked dominant and capable of winning a game for us if the other side of the ball has an off day. Every one of our offensive and defensive units looked better than their Virginia Tech counterparts. Our QBs looked better than their QBs. Our offensive line looked better than their offensive line. Our linebackers looked better than their linebackers, which is the biggest surprise because VT's linebackers are supposed to be the strength of the team and maybe the best in the country.

Early in the game, Jacob Hester showed me why he is the starter. He wasn't just a pretty good, reliable, heady runner (all the white-guy cliches). He was a dynamic runner who got big gains when they were available, and made the most out of runs that didn't have big-play potential. He finished with a 6.8 yard average and a touchdown on 12 runs.

But then Keiland Williams came in and took some of those "runs that didn't have big-play potential" and made them into big plays, making two dazzling runs into the end zone. When I said earlier this week that we don't have a playmaking running back, Keiland Williams had not made runs like that. I think we have one now. He had 126 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 7 carries.

I also complained about a lack of offensive playmakers other than Early Doucet. Brandon Lafell served notice last night that he will be a force in the passing game. Where last week our QBs completed very few passes to receivers other than Doucet, this week Doucet wasn't even our leading receiver. Lafell had one more catch than Doucet and 50 more yards receiving.

If I had to make a complaint, the return game sure didn't look very good. The kickoff returns didn't look impressive at all, and Doucet didn't make a single punt return, fair catching every punt that came his way. I know Early is sure-handed and there are advantages to having that kind of guy back there, but he's also arguably the most important offensive player on the team, and we want to protect him from injury. If he's not going to try to get us some field position, we should probably get someone else back there.

For the second straight week, Ryan Perrilloux looked very good when he got in the game. He was 5 for 5 throwing the ball for 84 yards and 2 touchdowns. We're running a package for him that is similar to the one Florida ran for Tim Tebow last year. Right now, Perrilloux is not nearly as effective of a runner as Tebow was last year, but he's sure throwing the ball very well.

Congratulations to newcomer Demetrius Byrd, who made his first receptions of his LSU career, catching 2 passes late for 22 yards. Congratulations also to true freshman Terrance Toliver, who caught his first touchdown pass of the season, and who looks like he's going to be a great one.

Kudos to Carnell Stewart, who had a very tough week at right tackle last week and took a lot of abuse in the media and on the message boards. He played very well, by which I mean he mostly kept his name from being mentioned. When I watch a replay, I'll keep an eye on him specifically. But regardless of what a close viewing shows, he clearly took great strides from week 1 to week 2.

The last thing that bears mentioning today is the observation that we have not committed a turnover yet this season. No fumbles. No interceptions. We'll win a lot of games if we never turn it over.

Game Day: Virginia Tech

With non-gratuitous football-related image of Rocky.

The second game day of GeauxTuscaloosa's life is finally here, and it's sort of the one everyone's been waiting for, including my baby, who is doing her level best to get at the keyboard. She's a cutie-pie.

Anyway, I think all that can be said has been said.

• Neither team performed well on the offensive line last week.
• Sean Glennon is not known as a great QB
• LSU's defense was dominant
• Virginia Tech is known for blocking kicks
• Virginia Tech's linebackers are supposed to be awesome but didn't exactly show it last week
• Virginia Tech is playing through memories of tragedy
• LSU needs to throw the ball more effectively, getting more yards per completion and finding more receivers than just Early Doucet

But that's how the day will end. The day will start with an 11:30 matchup that is almost as interesting with Bama at Vandy. As I said before, Vandy's best 5 players are just as good as Bama's best five. Maybe even better. We know nothing about Bama as a result of last week. We'll know a lot more after this week. Is this team a legitimate threat in the West? Or are they going to struggle to reach a bowl game?

I predicted a long time ago that the winner of this game would go to a bowl and the loser wouldn't, regardless of who won. In my early-season preview, I said that if Bama lost, it would be hard to make it to a bowl game. I don't like to make predictions about outcomes of games, and I won't here, but I think my alternative analyses of the future is still correct. If Bama can't beat Vandy (who you must understand is probably better than any Vandy team in my memory), then Bama will probably sweat out going to a bowl all season, and may not make it.

For that matter, this is also a huge game for Vandy. They have a tough schedule, and even though they may have the best team they've had in a long time, I only count 4 easy wins on their schedule, and that's only if you count Ole Miss as an easy win. They're going to have to figure out how to win 2 games against Bama, Auburn, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest. Only Bama, Kentucky, and Wake Forest look like games where they can match talent with their opponents. They likely have to win 2 of those 3 to qualify for a bowl game.

So, my schedule today is:

Now to 9:00am: chores, errands, and possibly watch non-football-related entertainment
9:00am - 11:00am: Watch as much of GameDay as I can stomach
11:00-11:30am: Nothing sticks out at me as a must-see. Perhaps I'll do more chores or something.
11:30-3:00pm-ish: Bama v. Vandy
3:00-4:45pm: Perhaps I'll watch a movie
4:45-8:00: South Carolina v. Georgia, with TCU v. Texas as a fall-back position
8:00-midnight: Virginia Tech v. LSU

Virginia Tech: Are They Any Good?

We all know that Virginia Tech played East Carolina University last week, and that they didn't look particularly good doing it. They managed 278 total yards, only 33 of them on the ground. Sean Glennon was reasonably effective, completing 67% of his passes with a 7.4 yards per attempt average, with 1 TD and 1 INT. Their defense allowed 261yards of offense, with ECU being particularly effective on the ground, averaging 4.1 yards per rush but only 3.8 yards per pass (that's terrible ypa in the passing game).

Their wide receivers were only a minor part of the offense, catching 13 passes in total. By comparison, their starting tight end caught 7 passes, which was more than our starting tight end caught all of last year.

Their wide receivers, though seniors, have not proven much in their careers. None of them have caught more than 33 passes in a season or had more than 500 receiving yards or scored more than 5 touchdowns, so it's not particularly surprising that they didn't light up the scoreboard in the passing game. They haven't done it throughout their careers. Why would they start now?

But Tight End Sam Wheeler's productivity has to come as a surprise. He only caught 13 passes for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns last year, and caught 7 last week for 81 yards last week. He's on pace to equal last year's production in about 2 weeks.

Brandon Ore is supposed to be an All-SEC running back, but he only got 70 yards on 23 carries against East Carolina, and had a long run of only 9 yards. He wasn't very effective, which was mostly a result of not having a lot of holes to run through.

Then again, LSU didn't give their running backs a lot of holes to run through.

Defensively, they're headlined by Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi at linebacker, but East Carolina was able to run a bit on them. The VT defense was pretty good, but East Carolina scored one touchdown, playing without their starting QB, who was suspended for legal problems. As I pointed out, they did not exactly pass effectively, despite being pretty effective on the ground. Given that their passing game gave up a defensive touchdown and was playing with its backup quarterback in the game, it's certainly possible that ECU could have won that game with their starting QB in the game.

Really there's nothing that we saw last Saturday to suggest that Virginia Tech is a particularly good team. They did not dominate or offense or on defense, at least not to the extent that LSU dominated Mississippi State, which I would suggest is probably a better team than ECU. This is not to say that Virginia Tech won't improve from week 1 to week 2, but they'll have to make a pretty big improvement.

Week 2 - Conference-Wide Preview

With gratuitous Bullwinkle image.

OK, Week 1 is now officially behind us. There is no more Week 1, except in retrospective. Preparation for Week 2 is upon us in earnest. Here is your preview of the coming week. After this paragraph, I won't mention cupcake games like Florida v. Troy and Kentucky v. Kent State again.

OK, I'll mention Kentucky v. Kent State again. Didn't Kent State change its name to Kent? Is it sort of like "Siamese Twins" where people know that isn't their real name but simply refuse to call them by their real name? Anyway, I shouldn't call this a cupcake game. Kent beat Iowa State last week. But anyway, that's the last you'll hear of that.

Teams Hoping to Get A Rare Win

Mississippi State at Tulane: Who did Tulane have to kill to get two SEC teams to go on the road to play them? Having no idea how good Tulane is, MSU had still better beat this team, because I'm doubtful they'll be able to win any SEC game.

Ole Miss at Missouri: Whenever I was watching Mizzou v. Illinois, Mizzou looked great. Chase Daniel looked llike a skilled QB with good receivers. Whenever I changed to channel to watch another game, Illinois scored points. It was the strangest thing. Illinois looked completely overmatched every time I was watching them play, yet almost won the game. Anyway, if Ole Miss is going to be competitive against the good teams of the SEC, they had better beat Mizzou pretty convincingly.

TV Guide

Alabama at Vandy, 11:30am Lincoln-Financial: To me, this is the most anticipated game of the early season schedule. Here is what I keep telling anyone who'll listen (so I've told like 2 or 3 people). Vandy's best five or six players are just as good as Bama's best five or six players. Earl Bennett is just as good as DJ Hall. Chris Nickson is just as good as John Parker Wilson. Chris Williams is just as good as Andre Smith. Jonathan Goff is just as good as Simeone Castille. Brian Stamper is just as good as Antoine Caldwell. I don't know how the rest of Bama's team stacks up to the rest of Vandy's team, but the best players are pretty much even. As far as I can tell then, these two teams are evenly matched. And it's being played in Nashville. Watch out.

Once again, there is no 2:30pm game. When does that start?

South Carolina at Georgia, 5:45 ESPN2: I've been hyping up SC for a while, but I'm not feeling good about that right now. ULL played Carolina tough, and Georgia looked surprisingly good against Oklahoma State. Unless Blake Mitchell comes back and makes this team a lot better (possible), Georgia sure looks like the superior team right now.

Virginia Tech at LSU, 8:15 ESPN: OK, we all know about this one. It's a matchup of two top-10 teams out of conference. We've already talked about this pretty extensively, but I'll say something else right now. Watch out for Virginia Tech's tight ends. They made a lot of catches against ECU, and their wideouts pretty much disappeared. We don't play a lot of SEC teams that emphasize the tight end in the passing game, so we better have a plan for it. Of course, if their offensive line doesn't do better, it probably won't matter. Then again, the same can be said of us.

South Florida at Auburn, 8:00 ESPN2: Why do we keep doing this? Why do we keep scheduling quality SEC football games against each other? Is it Auburn's fault? It has to be because they've been involved in it twice in the first two weeks. They say that a team makes its biggest improvement between Week 1 and Week 2. Auburn had better hope that's true, because they were lucky to escape last week with a win. If their OL doesn't improve, Brandon Cox won't be their QB for long, and I wouldn't want to be the guy who replaces him.

Other Games

Southern Miss at Tennessee, not on television: Trap game! Tennessee faces a half-decent mid-major between their loss to Cal and their traditional rivalry with Florida.

TCU at Texas, CSTV 6:00pm: I think I have the TV outlet right, but I might not. These are two ranked teams, and TCU is supposed to be legitimately good. If SC vs Georgia looks like a laugher, change over to this one and see if an upset is possible.

Middle Tennessee State at Louisville, 6:00pm Thursday, ESPN: If you feel the need to scout MTSU, a future LSU opponent, check out this game. They lost 27-14 to Florida Atlantic last week. That's all I really need to know, but I might watch some of it anyway.

Notes on Week 1

After watching a lot of football on Saturday, here are some notes:

1. LSU played dominating defense without really giving VT anything to prepare for. We rarely blitzed, and when we did it was usually a simple linebacker blitz. We only brought one corner blitz, and that was way at the end of the game, and Jai Eugene was the blitzer. We stayed in either a 4-3-4 or a 4-2-5 the whole game, with McCray playing like a linebacker, and we played a lot of zone. I'm sure Bo Pelini will be giving VT a lot of different looks, with lots more blitzes and lots more bluff blitzes.
2. Other top teams had much more smooth and fluid passing games than we did. We seemed to have trouble getting wide receivers the ball in space, where other teams were able to do it with some regularity. Like I said before, I think our five receiver sets with everyone making short to intermediate routes clogged the field pretty good. If we have 5 wide receivers in the pattern, I think at least 2 of them need to running a 20+ yard pattern if for no other reason than to clear the intermediate field of defenders.
3. Virginia Tech did not look good in their first game. Their defense didn't tackle well. Their offensive line didn't open any holes in the rushing game. The pass protection broke down frequently. If they hadn't gotten that defensive touchdown, this game would have been a fight to the finish.
4. Using GeauxTuscaloosa's statistical analysis for QBs, the best SEC quarterback of the week was Tim Tebow of Florida. He made 17 pass attempts for an even 300 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also had 38 yards rushing on 8 attempts with one additional touchdown. Those numbers gave him an eye-popping GTQBPI (GeauxTuscaloosa Quarterback Productivity Index) of 16.72 yards per play. Chris Nickson of Vandy had the second highest at 11.72 yards per play. The worst of the week was obviously Michael Henig, who was actually well into negative numbers. Matt Flynn scored 7.0 yards per play, good for 6th among starting QBs.
5. Of course, Florida was playing Western Kentucky, and from the little bit of the game I saw, they really opened up the offense. They made a lot of downfield throws. I think I remember even seeing a flee-flicker. Vandy played 1-AA Richmond. I'm sorry, that's "Football Championship Subdivision" team Richmond. The knock on Nickson was that he threw a lot of interceptions last year, and got most of his passing yards by throwing to one receiver: Earl Bennett. Nickson didn't throw any interceptions, but he threw 221 of his 281 passing yards and 3 of his 4 touchdowns to Earl Bennett. I maintain that if any team has the corners to cover Earl Bennett, Nickson will struggle in the passing game.
6. Speaking of "Football Championship Subdivision", assuming both finish undefeated, who would be more deserving of a BCS bowl berth? App State or Hawaii?
   
7. Auburn got a little lucky beating K-State. Their offensive line was horrible, but their defense played pretty well. With K-State down by 3 points late in the game, and with Quentin Groves beating their left tackle play after play, the K-State playcaller steadfastly refused to give the left tackle any help at all. In the decisive play of the game, Groves sprinted right past the left tackle and got a free shot on the QB, forcing a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. In a game where K-State had outplayed Auburn most of the night, they ended up losing by 10, thanks in part to some shoddy playcalling by someone who apparently wasn't watching the game.
8. I didn't watch much of the Bama game, but it looks like they have some speedy and shifty running backs. Considering the competition, John Parker Wilson didn't exactly put up stellar numbers (GTQBPI of 7.38), but Terry Grant routinely was able to get to the corner and turn it upfield for a big gain.
9. My pet team in the East, South Carolina, didn't exactly light it up against Louisiana-Lafayette. Maybe Blake Mitchell being suspended is what did it. They will need Mitchell, and they will need him to be good, if they're going to compete in the East, because Florida looked awesome and Georgia looked better than expected.
10. I don't put a lot of stock into the Tennessee loss at Cal. Yeah, Tennessee's defense looked awful trying to stop all those speedy Cal players, but Cal is the 2nd best team in the Pac-10, and they were playing at home. Tennessee is probably at best the 4th best team in the SEC right now, and they may be much lower than that. Erik Ainge, by the way, looked pretty good until Tennessee got behind and they went almost exclusively to the pass. I'd like to say it would have gone better for Tennessee if they'd had Lamarcus Coker, who may be the 3rd best running back in the SEC, but Coker wouldn't have helped their defense any.

Looking forward to next week.

The Importance of Being In-Conference

Now that is a mean looking dude. His name is Will Arnold, senior, and he is a Pre-Season Coaches' All-SEC offensive lineman, first team. Unfortunately, he has never played a full season of football without injury in his time at LSU. He has reportedly had 18 surgeries on his knees, but I can't swear that's true. It's been said that he has the knees of an old man. He missed the last 9 games of last season, and was STILL named 2nd Team All-SEC. He's received All-American honors. That's a mighty high praise and high expectations for a man almost no one expects to be able to play a full healthy season.

Alright, let's assume that will Arnold really is that good*, and let's further assume that we have to limit his playing time in order to keep him healthy.

If both of those things are true, one of Miles' most important jobs in pre-season is to decide how best to use Will Arnold, and more importantly how best to limit his use. There are several strategies one can use to do this. Some of my preferred strategies are discussed below.

1. Only play him in SEC games.

When someone on a message board suggested that we not play him against Mississippi State so we could save him and rest him for Virginia Tech, I was a bit taken aback. When I replied that he should be held out of the Virginia Tech game after playing in the MSU game, one person said, "VT is much more important than Ole Miss and Mississippi State." I was a bit taken aback by this statement, until I realized that a lot of people probably agree with him. Those people are wrong.

The primary goal of the regular season is to make it to the SEC Championship Game. The outcome of the Virginia Tech game will do nothing to decide who advances to the SECCG. What's more, the secondary goal of the regular season is to set ourselves up for a possible berth in the National Championship game. If we lose to Virginia Tech, we are further from that goal, but if we win all the rest of our games, we probably have a better-then-even shot at making it to that game. Only our tertiary goal of having an undefeated season will be ruined by a loss to Virginia Tech.

In other words, while the Virginia Tech game is a very exciting matchup between two teams that should be very good, it's a game we can afford to lose and still meet most of our goals. With a loss to Virginia Tech, we'll still win the SEC if we take care of business in the rest of our games. The same is not necessarily true if we lose to Mississippi State or Ole Miss.

Granted, I think it's unlikely we lose to either of those two teams, but if you recall Ole Miss pushed us to overtime last year and honestly looked for three quarters like they were going to win that game. I'm not sure either of those teams will be as good as Ole Miss was last year (which itself wasn't particularly good), but if we fail to show up again either of those teams can beat us.

This strategy alone will keep him out of games 2, 3, 5, and 10. His schedule would be back-loaded, which could lead to a problem, but it would hopefully at least get him TO about week 6 without great risk of injury.

2. Remove him from all games in which we are ahead by more than one possession.

If we're ahead by 9 or more points, and the opposition cannot close the gap in just one possession, that's a good time to start saving Will Arnold. Honestly, this should mean that he would play limited action against Mississippi State, and probably Ole Miss as well, and possibly others.

3. Don't put him in a game until the 2nd quarter.

This is probably pushing it. Combined with Strategy #2, this would probably mean he wouldn't play at all against MSU, which would keep him out entirely until week 4 at South Carolina, a team I consider to be pretty darn good.

Why would you do this? Unlike the previous strategies, this is a risky move that could make the difference between wins and losses. It comes down to just how much Arnold can play. If he isn't playing in the first quarter, you can evaluate how your team is doing without him while saving him for crunch time. Combined with the idea of removing him from games when we're ahead by more than one score, it could keep him out of several of our games.

I don't know how much Will Arnold can play. I hope he can play quite a bit, but I think realistically he has to be limited in his playing time or he won't be around for the most important stretch of games in October and early November, which will see us play Florida, Auburn, Kentucky, and Bama.

*Am I the only person who noticed that after Arnold got injured against Auburn, our offensive line actually improved significantly. I'm not saying it's because we lost him, but it suggests that maybe Arnold isn't as essential as some believe.

Slow news day

I don't have much to discuss today, so I thought I'd go with a basic, "What worries me"-style post. What about the 2007 LSU football team worries me? If my worries have an overarching them, they are that we have inexperienced players at some key positions, and a key out-of-conference showdown against a good Virginia Tech team in week 2.

Here's a breakdown.

First, I'd have to say quarterback. If any LSU fan is being honest with himself, he has to acknowledge that there is the potential for QB to be a problem next year. After all, it is undeniable that no SEC team will be starting a QB in 2007 who took fewer meaningful snaps in 2006 than did Matt Flynn.

I'm not saying, "Matt Flynn is terrible," or, "Matt Flynn will struggle." I am saying that Matt Flynn could struggle. Yes, I remember the Peach Bowl against Miami. I am just not sure he'll repeat that level of performance.

The good news is that Flynn has had a lot of time in practice to hone his skills and to prepare. He could end up being a very good player and very effective at his position.

Second, I worry about the right side of the offensive line. We will have two new starters on that side. Will they make room for the runners? Will they protect the quarterback?We'll just have to see.

The fact is, too, that projected starters Lyle Hitt and Carnell Stewart are both converted from other positions. Hitt was a tight end and Stewart was a defensive lineman early in their college careers. I'm not sure that means anything, but it's an interesting fact.

Third, I worry about the wide receivers. In particular, I worry about the wide receivers other than Early Doucet, who I think is awesome. The only other receiver with any meaningful time is Brandon Lafell, and I'm just not sold on him yet. His most effective route last year was one that Matt Flynn may not be able to throw with regularity: the 40 yard bomb. He wasn't effective in traffic or on shorter routes.

The other returning receivers are Jared Mitchell and Chris Mitchell, who played only at the ends of blow-out games, and Ricky Dixon, who redshirted. None of those guys had any opportunity to show anything meaningful in games last year, but Jared Mitchell did have a crushing block once. It was impressive.

There is also JUCO transfer Demetrius Byrd. Some say he's really good and will be our #2 receiver next year, but he hasn't set foot on the field against SEC competition yet.

After that, we have some highly-touted true freshmen coming in: Terrance Tolliver, Ron Brooks, and John Williams. Brooks and/or Williams may be moved to defensive back. Either way, it is hard to rely on true freshmen at the wide receiver position. Any of these guys could end up great, but it isn't often that a true freshman wide receiver really makes an impact. The last one at LSU was Michael Clayton.

It certainly helps that Doucet is such a good short-yardage and red zone receiver due to his ability to go get a "jump ball". I've never seen a receiver at LSU who was so good at leaving his feet to go up and get a ball.

What does it all mean? Well, I think it's entirely possible, or even likely, that one, two, or all of these worries will ultimately prove unwarranted. However, the worst case scenario is that because of weakness at the QB, WR, and OL positions, we will have an anemic passing game and ultimately a one-dimensional team. It is also possible that this is a problem that will plague us early, but eventually come around late, kind of like our running game last year.

With Virginia Tech sitting there in week 2, that could be very worrisome.

My question is this: If, as many people expect, LSU is beating Mississippi State soundly in the first week, when should we remove the starters?*

Well, I think other than the positions mentioned, we can remove the starters at a normal time. However, I think Flynn, the receivers, and the offensive line need to have as much time as possible to gel in preparation for week 2. What's more, we shouldn't close the playbook with a big lead. It is too important for the next week.

* Yes, I know this sounds like I am looking past Mississippi State. I certainly think it is possible that Mississippi State will play us tough or even beat us. However, objectively, we have to realize that Mississippi State was terrible last year, and that there is little reason to believe they'll be any better this year.

Beyond football

Of course by now you've heard about the shootings on the campus of Virginia Tech. This is bound to create reactions in people, but one of the things I find the most repugnant is how when a tragedy like this occurs, the first thing many people worry about is how it will affect sports.

The Virginia Tech incident is not a sports story. Sports stories rarely include the violent deaths of more than 30 young people. If your reaction to deaths of over 30 young people is something to the effect of, "You have to start wondering if any varsity athletes were killed or wounded in this crazy event at Virginia Tech," then I suggest you keep your thoughts to yourself.

For today, we'll just leave it at that. Our condolences go out to the families and friends of those directly affected.