I don't have much to discuss today, so I thought I'd go with a basic, "What worries me"-style post. What about the 2007 LSU football team worries me? If my worries have an overarching them, they are that we have inexperienced players at some key positions, and a key out-of-conference showdown against a good Virginia Tech team in week 2.
Here's a breakdown.
First, I'd have to say quarterback. If any LSU fan is being honest with himself, he has to acknowledge that there is the potential for QB to be a problem next year. After all, it is undeniable that no SEC team will be starting a QB in 2007 who took fewer meaningful snaps in 2006 than did Matt Flynn.
I'm not saying, "Matt Flynn is terrible," or, "Matt Flynn will struggle." I am saying that Matt Flynn could struggle. Yes, I remember the Peach Bowl against Miami. I am just not sure he'll repeat that level of performance.
The good news is that Flynn has had a lot of time in practice to hone his skills and to prepare. He could end up being a very good player and very effective at his position.
Second, I worry about the right side of the offensive line. We will have two new starters on that side. Will they make room for the runners? Will they protect the quarterback?We'll just have to see.
The fact is, too, that projected starters Lyle Hitt and Carnell Stewart are both converted from other positions. Hitt was a tight end and Stewart was a defensive lineman early in their college careers. I'm not sure that means anything, but it's an interesting fact.
Third, I worry about the wide receivers. In particular, I worry about the wide receivers other than Early Doucet, who I think is awesome. The only other receiver with any meaningful time is Brandon Lafell, and I'm just not sold on him yet. His most effective route last year was one that Matt Flynn may not be able to throw with regularity: the 40 yard bomb. He wasn't effective in traffic or on shorter routes.
The other returning receivers are Jared Mitchell and Chris Mitchell, who played only at the ends of blow-out games, and Ricky Dixon, who redshirted. None of those guys had any opportunity to show anything meaningful in games last year, but Jared Mitchell did have a crushing block once. It was impressive.
There is also JUCO transfer Demetrius Byrd. Some say he's really good and will be our #2 receiver next year, but he hasn't set foot on the field against SEC competition yet.
After that, we have some highly-touted true freshmen coming in: Terrance Tolliver, Ron Brooks, and John Williams. Brooks and/or Williams may be moved to defensive back. Either way, it is hard to rely on true freshmen at the wide receiver position. Any of these guys could end up great, but it isn't often that a true freshman wide receiver really makes an impact. The last one at LSU was Michael Clayton.
It certainly helps that Doucet is such a good short-yardage and red zone receiver due to his ability to go get a "jump ball". I've never seen a receiver at LSU who was so good at leaving his feet to go up and get a ball.
What does it all mean? Well, I think it's entirely possible, or even likely, that one, two, or all of these worries will ultimately prove unwarranted. However, the worst case scenario is that because of weakness at the QB, WR, and OL positions, we will have an anemic passing game and ultimately a one-dimensional team. It is also possible that this is a problem that will plague us early, but eventually come around late, kind of like our running game last year.
With Virginia Tech sitting there in week 2, that could be very worrisome.
My question is this: If, as many people expect, LSU is beating Mississippi State soundly in the first week, when should we remove the starters?*
Well, I think other than the positions mentioned, we can remove the starters at a normal time. However, I think Flynn, the receivers, and the offensive line need to have as much time as possible to gel in preparation for week 2. What's more, we shouldn't close the playbook with a big lead. It is too important for the next week.
* Yes, I know this sounds like I am looking past Mississippi State. I certainly think it is possible that Mississippi State will play us tough or even beat us. However, objectively, we have to realize that Mississippi State was terrible last year, and that there is little reason to believe they'll be any better this year.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Wednesday, May 9, 2007
Tuesday, May 8, 2007
Two teams, two coaches, similar results
Getting back to the "underachiever" meme, the more I think about it, the more I see great similarities between the 2004 and 2006 LSU football teams.
Which of course begs the question, why is Les Miles being treated so much differently than Les Miles over similar seasons? Well, for one, Saban gets credit for having the 2003 national championship team. Rightly so. Miles and his supporters can't respond to criticism by saying, "I won that national championship, didn't I?"
That's definitely one explanation, but I think there is another factor feeding this media chatter. I think that the sports media is trying to create the story, and the story is that Nick Saban is trying to overtake the program he himself was so instrumental in developing. The drama improves if you get people thinking that Les Miles has not been a good steward of that program.
This is not unusual. In theory, media reports stories to the public according to what the public wants. In actuality, the media is quite adept at engineering the public's attitudes and interests. In general, a self-interested media will then engineer the public's perception in order to maximize its own sales or viewership. This is hardly limited to sports media, as Fox News has virtually made this into a science.
In sports, you see it on ESPN all the time. Ever notice that SportsCenter's coverage of hockey has gone down precipitously since ESPN stopped broadcasting NHL games? Ever notice the SportsCenter's coverage of NASCAR has increased substantially since ESPN got a NASCAR broadcast contract? Did you notice how much SportsCenter hyped the Danica Patrick story when ESPN an IRL contract? ESPN knows that SportsCenter doesn't just report sports news; it creates sports buzz, and ESPN takes advantage of that to promote the stories that help ESPN make more money.
I think there is an element of that same principle at work here. The Finebaums and Mandels of the world know that this sort of provocation increase readership and listenership by focusing the attention on them. They take advantage of that.
- Both were immensely talented. The 2004 teams probably had a more talented secondary and defensive line, but the 2006 team had a more polished offense and better linebackers.
- Both had very unfavorable road schedules. The 2004 team played Auburn on the road early, Georgia and Florida in mid-season, and Arkansas late.
- Both teams lost close defensive struggles to Auburn in games with questionable officiating at critical times. In 2004, Ronnie Prude was called for a penalty on a missed Auburn extra point, giving Auburn a second chance in the waning seconds. Auburn ended up winning by one point, and no other person in the history of football has been called for the particular penalty called on Prude, a personal foul for jumping and landing on his own player. In 2006, Jessie Daniels was called for pass interference, negating a critical interception on a pass that never reached the receiver while no call was made on an Auburn defensive back who interfered with Early Doucet on a fourth down pass that also did not reach the receiver.
- Both teams were convincingly defeated by an Eastern Division opponent in a poorly played game in which the team did not really show up to play. In 2004, we lost to Georgia 45-16. In 2006, we lost to Florida 23-10.
- Both teams ended the season strong with 6 straight regular season wins, but got one of those wins in a late come-from-behind win over a lesser opponent. In 2004, we needed late scores to beat Troy 24-20. In 2006, we needed a late touchdown and overtime to beat Ole Miss.
- The 2004 team was coached by Nick Saban, who had one eye looking to the NFL, while the 2006 team was coached by Les Miles.
- The 2006 team dominated their bowl game against Notre Dame while the 2004 team struggled in the Cap One against Iowa before finally losing on a last-second Hail Mary, despite a heroic comeback orchestrated by Jamarcus Russell. JR, incidentally, was relegated to 3rd string before the bowl game, and only played because Marcus Randall and Matt Flynn were so ineffective.
Which of course begs the question, why is Les Miles being treated so much differently than Les Miles over similar seasons? Well, for one, Saban gets credit for having the 2003 national championship team. Rightly so. Miles and his supporters can't respond to criticism by saying, "I won that national championship, didn't I?"
That's definitely one explanation, but I think there is another factor feeding this media chatter. I think that the sports media is trying to create the story, and the story is that Nick Saban is trying to overtake the program he himself was so instrumental in developing. The drama improves if you get people thinking that Les Miles has not been a good steward of that program.
This is not unusual. In theory, media reports stories to the public according to what the public wants. In actuality, the media is quite adept at engineering the public's attitudes and interests. In general, a self-interested media will then engineer the public's perception in order to maximize its own sales or viewership. This is hardly limited to sports media, as Fox News has virtually made this into a science.
In sports, you see it on ESPN all the time. Ever notice that SportsCenter's coverage of hockey has gone down precipitously since ESPN stopped broadcasting NHL games? Ever notice the SportsCenter's coverage of NASCAR has increased substantially since ESPN got a NASCAR broadcast contract? Did you notice how much SportsCenter hyped the Danica Patrick story when ESPN an IRL contract? ESPN knows that SportsCenter doesn't just report sports news; it creates sports buzz, and ESPN takes advantage of that to promote the stories that help ESPN make more money.
I think there is an element of that same principle at work here. The Finebaums and Mandels of the world know that this sort of provocation increase readership and listenership by focusing the attention on them. They take advantage of that.
Monday, May 7, 2007
Underachiever tag
The meme that "LSU has underachieved with Miles as the head coach" is really starting to gain currency. Stewart Mandel recently wrote on it, as had Paul Finebaum.
So, in a sense, Les Miles' moment of triumph in having so many of his players considered good enough to draft so high has become a double-edged sword. "Why couldn't you do better than 22-4 with all that great talent, Les?"
The more insulting way to put it is, "Les Miles has won with Nick Saban's players." And yes, Les Miles was definitely handed the keys to a race car when he was hired as LSU's head coach after the 2004 season, but let's look at it a little closer.
First, let's examine the 2004 season, the year after we won the championship. The starting lineup on defense included two future first round picks in Marcus Spears and Laron Landry. It had two All-American cornerbacks in Corey Webster and Travis Daniels, who would be drafted in the 2nd and 4th rounds, respectively. The other starting safety was Jessie Daniels, who was part of the 2005 and 2006 teams. It had Kyle Williams and Claude Wroten at defensive tackle, both who would be middle-round draft picks. Glenn Dorsey was their primary backup, and he will likely be a high first round pick next year. Melvin Oliver was the other starting DE, and he managed to make an NFL roster as an undrafted free agent. The linebacking corp included current starter Ali Highsmith, along with E.J. Kuale, Ken Hollis, and Cameron Vaughn. The linebacking corp may not have been great
That defense was stacked. While the linebacking corp may have been only OK, the defensive line and the secondary was filled with NFL talent.
The offense had Jamarcus Russell battling with Marcus Randall for the QB spot. The wide receivers were Skyler Green, Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis, Bennie Brazell, Early Doucet, and Xavier Carter. All but Carter will end up being drafted, and Carter will end up in the Olympics (as did Brazell). Alley Broussard averaged 6 yards per carry, and he started at running back over Joe Addai, who was a first round pick. The offensive line included NFLer Andrew Whitworth. There was NFL talent all over the offense as well.
That team lost three games, including an embarrassing 45-16 loss to Georgia in mid-season, and failed to make the SEC Championship Game. This team was entirely "Saban's talent", and was at least arguably more talented than subsequent teams. Yet, when people say, "Les Miles is underachieving with Saban's talent", the disappointing 2004 season is ignored.
That was Saban's last season. He would leave for Miami, and we would hire Les Miles. Now let's look at what happened next.
Miles took over a team with very high expectations. Once again, the talent level was very high. We lost the great cornerbacks and Marcus Spears, but not a lot more, and the quarterback situation stabilized.
Until....
The first blow was the loss of Alley Broussard, who was coming off a monster 2004 season in which he averaged 6 yards per carry. Tiger Nation hoped he'd challenge for the Heisman Trophy in 2005. Instead, he blew out his knee in Fall practice and did not play a down.
The second blow was Hurricane Katrina, which disrupted preparations, disrupted the schedule, and wore out the players to the point that the team lost an average of 7 pounds per person before the ill-fated game with Tennessee. We lost that game after we wore down in the 4th quarter. It was the most forgivable loss by any top team all season.
We then played 11 straight weeks, a streak began, mind you, with a team that was not in proper physical condition. We played strong, but ended the regular season on a weak note with a 19-17 victory over a middling Arkansas team. The team was clearly worn down, and the next week in the SECCG it showed, with a big loss to Georgia again. We then stomped Miami in the Peach Bowl.
That 2005 team did not underachieve. Under the circumstances, that was one of the most accomplished teams in LSU history, under the direction of Les Miles.
The 2006 season was a little more conventional. We had a very tough road schedule against 4 good teams and we won two of them.
People are saying that we were immensely talented last season, and that our 2-loss record represented an underachievement. And maybe they have a point. We really should have beaten Auburn, and we should not have let Alabama and Ole Miss play us so closely.
However, let's look at that talent gap. Those who say there was a talent gap are defining "talent" as "first round NFL draft picks." This is convenient for them because it fits the meme. However, you get a more complex picture if you look a little deeper.
LSU had four first round picks, but only one other draft pick in the other six rounds. Florida had two first round draft picks, and 9 total draft picks, and had two others who could have been drafted in Earl Everette and Chris Leak. Tennessee also had two other first round draft picks, and seven drafted overall. Auburn had one first rounder, and five drafted overall. Arkansas had three picked on the first day, and four drafted overall. And oh yeah, they had Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.
We played those four teams ON THE ROAD. If there was a talent gap, it wasn't a particularly big one. And we really should have beaten Auburn. I think if that team had played Auburn 10 times, we would have won 8. We were better, and played better, but it didn't show on the scoreboard.
Credit Auburn and credit Tuberville, but I don't think it means we underachieved. We just didn't get the breaks you need to beat a talented team on the road.
So anyway, I think the argument that we underachieved is bunk, but it's an argument that is gaining a lot of currency. I think the only way to defeat it is to have a championship season, and we have a real shot at it again this year.
So, in a sense, Les Miles' moment of triumph in having so many of his players considered good enough to draft so high has become a double-edged sword. "Why couldn't you do better than 22-4 with all that great talent, Les?"
The more insulting way to put it is, "Les Miles has won with Nick Saban's players." And yes, Les Miles was definitely handed the keys to a race car when he was hired as LSU's head coach after the 2004 season, but let's look at it a little closer.
First, let's examine the 2004 season, the year after we won the championship. The starting lineup on defense included two future first round picks in Marcus Spears and Laron Landry. It had two All-American cornerbacks in Corey Webster and Travis Daniels, who would be drafted in the 2nd and 4th rounds, respectively. The other starting safety was Jessie Daniels, who was part of the 2005 and 2006 teams. It had Kyle Williams and Claude Wroten at defensive tackle, both who would be middle-round draft picks. Glenn Dorsey was their primary backup, and he will likely be a high first round pick next year. Melvin Oliver was the other starting DE, and he managed to make an NFL roster as an undrafted free agent. The linebacking corp included current starter Ali Highsmith, along with E.J. Kuale, Ken Hollis, and Cameron Vaughn. The linebacking corp may not have been great
That defense was stacked. While the linebacking corp may have been only OK, the defensive line and the secondary was filled with NFL talent.
The offense had Jamarcus Russell battling with Marcus Randall for the QB spot. The wide receivers were Skyler Green, Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis, Bennie Brazell, Early Doucet, and Xavier Carter. All but Carter will end up being drafted, and Carter will end up in the Olympics (as did Brazell). Alley Broussard averaged 6 yards per carry, and he started at running back over Joe Addai, who was a first round pick. The offensive line included NFLer Andrew Whitworth. There was NFL talent all over the offense as well.
That team lost three games, including an embarrassing 45-16 loss to Georgia in mid-season, and failed to make the SEC Championship Game. This team was entirely "Saban's talent", and was at least arguably more talented than subsequent teams. Yet, when people say, "Les Miles is underachieving with Saban's talent", the disappointing 2004 season is ignored.
That was Saban's last season. He would leave for Miami, and we would hire Les Miles. Now let's look at what happened next.
Miles took over a team with very high expectations. Once again, the talent level was very high. We lost the great cornerbacks and Marcus Spears, but not a lot more, and the quarterback situation stabilized.
Until....
The first blow was the loss of Alley Broussard, who was coming off a monster 2004 season in which he averaged 6 yards per carry. Tiger Nation hoped he'd challenge for the Heisman Trophy in 2005. Instead, he blew out his knee in Fall practice and did not play a down.
The second blow was Hurricane Katrina, which disrupted preparations, disrupted the schedule, and wore out the players to the point that the team lost an average of 7 pounds per person before the ill-fated game with Tennessee. We lost that game after we wore down in the 4th quarter. It was the most forgivable loss by any top team all season.
We then played 11 straight weeks, a streak began, mind you, with a team that was not in proper physical condition. We played strong, but ended the regular season on a weak note with a 19-17 victory over a middling Arkansas team. The team was clearly worn down, and the next week in the SECCG it showed, with a big loss to Georgia again. We then stomped Miami in the Peach Bowl.
That 2005 team did not underachieve. Under the circumstances, that was one of the most accomplished teams in LSU history, under the direction of Les Miles.
The 2006 season was a little more conventional. We had a very tough road schedule against 4 good teams and we won two of them.
People are saying that we were immensely talented last season, and that our 2-loss record represented an underachievement. And maybe they have a point. We really should have beaten Auburn, and we should not have let Alabama and Ole Miss play us so closely.
However, let's look at that talent gap. Those who say there was a talent gap are defining "talent" as "first round NFL draft picks." This is convenient for them because it fits the meme. However, you get a more complex picture if you look a little deeper.
LSU had four first round picks, but only one other draft pick in the other six rounds. Florida had two first round draft picks, and 9 total draft picks, and had two others who could have been drafted in Earl Everette and Chris Leak. Tennessee also had two other first round draft picks, and seven drafted overall. Auburn had one first rounder, and five drafted overall. Arkansas had three picked on the first day, and four drafted overall. And oh yeah, they had Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.
We played those four teams ON THE ROAD. If there was a talent gap, it wasn't a particularly big one. And we really should have beaten Auburn. I think if that team had played Auburn 10 times, we would have won 8. We were better, and played better, but it didn't show on the scoreboard.
Credit Auburn and credit Tuberville, but I don't think it means we underachieved. We just didn't get the breaks you need to beat a talented team on the road.
So anyway, I think the argument that we underachieved is bunk, but it's an argument that is gaining a lot of currency. I think the only way to defeat it is to have a championship season, and we have a real shot at it again this year.
Sunday, May 6, 2007
6th commitment
Here is LSU's sixth commitment for the 2008 signing class. He is Rocky Duplessis, a SS/LB type from Belle Chasse.
Word is that Les Miles went to see him at his school, and offered a scholarship. Rocky apparently accepted on the spot.
Looking at him, he looks like a mean SOB. He has flown very low under the radar so far in recruiting however. Once the publications start putting out there ratings, he is likely to be a 3-star or a 2-star, because there has been very little buzz about him.
As a result, there has been an inevitable chorus of "wasted scholarship".
The people who say that are utter fools. First, to think this, you must believe that Scout and Rivals know more about the recruiting landscape than the LSU staff. While that may be true nationally, I seriously doubt that's true within our major recruiting regions.
Miles & Company have some idea of what's out there and what we have realistic chances of getting. While we have a lot of interest from out of state prospects, there aren't really many Louisiana safeties this year burning up the message boards. For all we know, Duplessis may be the best in the state.
Rivals and Scout aren't the be-all, end-all of judging a recruit. Even though I really like those sights and find them very helpful, you can't accept what they say as Biblical truth. I think even the people who run those sights would agree with that if you caught them being honest. You need only look at the results of the NFL draft held one week ago to know that 2-star and 3-star players sometimes become great.
Second, you have to like his immediate commitment and the stories that he has been a fan all his life and was waiting for this offer and this offer only. Even if he is not among the best athletes we sign next year (which I do not know to be true), he seems like a kid who really wants to be there, and like he would be happy taking a special teams and backup role his entire career.
While every team needs great athletes and playmakers, teams also need quality kids who love the program are willing to be role-players. I don't know if Duplessis is limited like that, but if he is, so what?
Third, it really is helpful to maintain this as a "Louisiana team". This is supposedly a down year for recruiting, and the temptation is there to go out of the state even more as a result. This would be a mistake. While we should certainly look out of state to an extent (even a rather large extent), LSU needs to maintain a good relationship with Louisiana high school coaches and fans.
There will come a time when LSU will have some lean years. When that happens, the out-of-state well will dry up. We'll no longer be able to pull kids from out of state who have offers from the Florida States, Oklahomas, and Texases of the world. When that happens, we will have to rely on the Louisiana kids to pull us out of the slump, the way Dinardo go Kevin Faulk and Saban pulled in Clayton and Spears, all of whom could have gone to national powerhouses.
When the lean years come, if we have sold Louisiana kids and high school coaches down the river, they will turn around and sell us down the river. If we simply say, "Louisiana is no good this year, and we have to look out of state for everything," we risk becoming like the U of Miami, which has been a team of mercenaries with little or not organic community support. (Just look at their attendance numbers, even in their National Championship years). There was a time when LSU looked primarily out of state for various reasons. As a result, Louisiana high schools and coaches lost all loyalty to LSU, particularly in the New Orleans region. For most of a decade, LSU couldn't get the best recruits out of New Orleans. It took years to undo that.
So, no, I don't think this is a "wasted scholarship". I welcome Rocky Duplessis to the fold with open arms.
Friday, May 4, 2007
Finebaum's Hatchet Job
Short post today. As many of you may have seen, Paul Finebaum penned a hatchet job against Les Miles and LSU, something he is becoming quite adept at doing.
Perhaps "adept" is not the right word, because it implies a high level of competence. I think the word I'm looking for in place of adept is "prolific". Anyway, all you need to know about this attempted assassination to know how flat it falls is this sentence:
It's so comical that I honestly feel sorry for LSU fans.
Oh really? The situation in LSU's football program is so comical that you "feel sorry" for us? Miles is 22-4 over two years, a two-year record Nick Saban matched exactly one time at LSU, even when he was coaching "Nick Saban talent". Miles did it in the face of a certain hurricane in 2006, the loss of his #1 running back to injury before the season started, and a hellish road schedule in 2007.
Then Les Miles put together the most heralded recruiting class in LSU history.
I realize one thing here, and it's something I've discussed before. Finebaum is deliberately being an agent prococateur and is writing simply to draw attention to himself. He doesn't care if it's negative attention he's getting. He knows that people who hate you are just as likely to read your columns and listen to your radio show as people who love you. It's good marketing.
He crossed the line from being a simple agent provocateur to being a pure yellow journalist, however. And his statement that he pities us is laughable. News flash: LSU is a top 5 program in the country. Bama is not a top 5 program in the SEC.
I'm going to do my part to turn that around. I'm taking 100.5 off of my radio presets. I won't listen to it at all anymore. And yes, I have in the past listened to Finebaum as well as other programs on that station, including the morning show with Jay Barker, Al del Greco, and whoever is the radio professional on that show. Not anymore. That which is associated with this level of yellow journalism must not be patronized.
Also, I won't read those newspapers which publish his columns.
I encourage others to do the same. Ignore him. Ignore his broadcasts. Ignore his colleagues. Don't discuss his opinions further. Don't ever give him any more attention whatsoever.
And no, I'm not linking the article.
Perhaps "adept" is not the right word, because it implies a high level of competence. I think the word I'm looking for in place of adept is "prolific". Anyway, all you need to know about this attempted assassination to know how flat it falls is this sentence:
It's so comical that I honestly feel sorry for LSU fans.
Oh really? The situation in LSU's football program is so comical that you "feel sorry" for us? Miles is 22-4 over two years, a two-year record Nick Saban matched exactly one time at LSU, even when he was coaching "Nick Saban talent". Miles did it in the face of a certain hurricane in 2006, the loss of his #1 running back to injury before the season started, and a hellish road schedule in 2007.
Then Les Miles put together the most heralded recruiting class in LSU history.
I realize one thing here, and it's something I've discussed before. Finebaum is deliberately being an agent prococateur and is writing simply to draw attention to himself. He doesn't care if it's negative attention he's getting. He knows that people who hate you are just as likely to read your columns and listen to your radio show as people who love you. It's good marketing.
He crossed the line from being a simple agent provocateur to being a pure yellow journalist, however. And his statement that he pities us is laughable. News flash: LSU is a top 5 program in the country. Bama is not a top 5 program in the SEC.
I'm going to do my part to turn that around. I'm taking 100.5 off of my radio presets. I won't listen to it at all anymore. And yes, I have in the past listened to Finebaum as well as other programs on that station, including the morning show with Jay Barker, Al del Greco, and whoever is the radio professional on that show. Not anymore. That which is associated with this level of yellow journalism must not be patronized.
Also, I won't read those newspapers which publish his columns.
I encourage others to do the same. Ignore him. Ignore his broadcasts. Ignore his colleagues. Don't discuss his opinions further. Don't ever give him any more attention whatsoever.
And no, I'm not linking the article.
Thursday, May 3, 2007
Big Media on the Draft
I was sitting here puttering around on the internet thinking, "I don't have anything I particularly want to write about today." News is slow as far as LSU football goes, and I don't want to write about the Troy Giddens/Joseph Barksdale incident. Enough has been said about that already, and frankly I see nothing really to analyze or discuss about it. While I have some ideas kicking around for a few columns that don't have any immediate import, nothing really jumped out at me today.
Then I ran into this. It's CNNSI's "Photo Gallery" wherein they take a topic, give it very little substance, but beef it up by posting it accompanied by very large pictures. It's like the print version of a musical montage. Very little substance, but it has a nice beat and you can dance to it.
Anyway, this "Photo Gallery" lists the Top 10 NFL Draft Steals for 2007. It helps me crystallize something I've been trying to articulate about "Draft Grades" and "Draft Analysis" in the media for a while. That thing I've been trying to say is that they do not mean much because they are heavily weighted towards rewarding teams that draft players from big schools that the reporters have seen on television. Here are the top 10 draft steals, in order:
CNNSI thinks, then, that the big "steals" of the draft almost uniformly came from schools that just so happen to get on television frequently. I wonder if the Top 10 Draft Steals of 2006 published in May of last year included Marques Colston from Hofstra?
I have nothing against any of these players personally, and there is certainly a chance that any of these guys will emerge as a major player in the NFL. And really, when you think about it, if you're a typical football fan not privy to scouting reports, combine reports, etc., there's a certain amount of decent logic in using as your measuring stick in evaluating talent, "Was he productive against top level competition?"
However, in an NFL where players routinely excel from unheralded programs and players from big schools often flop, don't even pretend an analysis that is heavily biased in favor of players from big programs is even remotely definitive.
To show you how far this goes, consider the case of Tarrell Brown, the 5th biggest steal of the draft. He was a cornerback at Texas, a school which had seven players drafted. In particular, two cornerbacks, one safety, and two defensive ends were drafted. That's 5 of the 6 most important positions on the field for defending against the pass. You have your two corners, one of your safeties, and both of your primary outside pass rushers going to the NFL. Three of them were first-day picks including two in the first round.
Wow, Texas's pass defense must have been excellent in 2006 to have had that much talent on the field. Think again. Texas's vaunted pass defense, which put so many players into the NFL, was tenth in the Big 12 in yards per game.
"OK", you say, "but Texas won a lot of games, and were undoubtedly ahead by large margins, forcing opponents to pass more, thereby giving up more yards."
Good try. They were also tenth in yards per attempt. Out of 12. Texas's pass defense compared to the rest of the Big 12 was poor. Despite this, the third member of the Texas secondary to be drafted gets labeled one of the Top Ten Biggest Draft Steals of 2007? How can this be explained other than by basic big-school bias?
Then I ran into this. It's CNNSI's "Photo Gallery" wherein they take a topic, give it very little substance, but beef it up by posting it accompanied by very large pictures. It's like the print version of a musical montage. Very little substance, but it has a nice beat and you can dance to it.
Anyway, this "Photo Gallery" lists the Top 10 NFL Draft Steals for 2007. It helps me crystallize something I've been trying to articulate about "Draft Grades" and "Draft Analysis" in the media for a while. That thing I've been trying to say is that they do not mean much because they are heavily weighted towards rewarding teams that draft players from big schools that the reporters have seen on television. Here are the top 10 draft steals, in order:
- Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame (late first round)
- Ryan Kalil, C, USC (late second round)
- Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio St. (4th round)
- Steve Breaston, WR, Michigan (5th round)
- Dallas Sartz, LB, USC (5th round)
- Tarrell Brown, CB, Texas (5th round)
- Derek Landri, DT, Notre Dame (5th round)
- Adam Koets, OT, Oregon State (6th round)
- Mason Crosby, K, Colorado (6th round)
- David Irons, CB, Auburn (6th round)
CNNSI thinks, then, that the big "steals" of the draft almost uniformly came from schools that just so happen to get on television frequently. I wonder if the Top 10 Draft Steals of 2006 published in May of last year included Marques Colston from Hofstra?
I have nothing against any of these players personally, and there is certainly a chance that any of these guys will emerge as a major player in the NFL. And really, when you think about it, if you're a typical football fan not privy to scouting reports, combine reports, etc., there's a certain amount of decent logic in using as your measuring stick in evaluating talent, "Was he productive against top level competition?"
However, in an NFL where players routinely excel from unheralded programs and players from big schools often flop, don't even pretend an analysis that is heavily biased in favor of players from big programs is even remotely definitive.
To show you how far this goes, consider the case of Tarrell Brown, the 5th biggest steal of the draft. He was a cornerback at Texas, a school which had seven players drafted. In particular, two cornerbacks, one safety, and two defensive ends were drafted. That's 5 of the 6 most important positions on the field for defending against the pass. You have your two corners, one of your safeties, and both of your primary outside pass rushers going to the NFL. Three of them were first-day picks including two in the first round.
Wow, Texas's pass defense must have been excellent in 2006 to have had that much talent on the field. Think again. Texas's vaunted pass defense, which put so many players into the NFL, was tenth in the Big 12 in yards per game.
"OK", you say, "but Texas won a lot of games, and were undoubtedly ahead by large margins, forcing opponents to pass more, thereby giving up more yards."
Good try. They were also tenth in yards per attempt. Out of 12. Texas's pass defense compared to the rest of the Big 12 was poor. Despite this, the third member of the Texas secondary to be drafted gets labeled one of the Top Ten Biggest Draft Steals of 2007? How can this be explained other than by basic big-school bias?
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