South Carolina: Post Game

Alright, let's get one thing straight before I even read the message boards or anything. We just beat a pretty good team with our quarterback at well below 100% in weather conditions that made everything difficult. Flynn gutted out a performance and we got a big win against a team that I think EVERYONE is going to have trouble beating.

OK, we have that out of the way. What thought processes could possibly have been going through the coaches' heads to make them think Flynn should have been playing in the 4th quarter. Flynn ended the game 8 of 19 with 71 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Let's just say his GTQBPI is going to be ugly with those stats. He clearly was not even close to being his usual self, and Perrilloux has been nothing short of awesome when he's gotten to play. In the 4th quarter, Flynn did everything the coaches must have feared Perrilloux would do. He threw an interception and he couldn't complete a pass. He didn't run aggressively and didn't throw accurately.

Perrilloux was excellent in a limited role. With Flynn ailing, Perrilloux's role not only wasn't expanded. It was contracted. He only threw one pass, and honestly I don't remember it. He did nothing but run the ball or hand it off, but he did it well. I really do not understand why Perrilloux didn't play more.

In the last quarter, it became obvious that Flynn was handing off virtually every time, and would only throw on obvious throwing downs. In addition to that limitation, everyone knew he wasn't a threat to run anymore. Perrilloux would have at LEAST made USC play against the QB run, and he was probably a bigger passing threat as well.

Should the Flynns happen to run into this blog, I just want to say that they seem like very lovely people. They're great sports about their son looking like Matt Damon, which is hardly an insult. Matt Damon's a good looking fella.

Alright, before I watch replays, let me just say that the offensive line sure looked great for big stretches of this game. It was probably the best game they played all year, and we proved we can ride the running game to victory when the passing game isn't working, even against a pretty good team. South Carolina is definitely a bowl-calibre team, and looks like they may challenge for the East. I started the week questioning their #12 ranking, but I hope they don't lose it. They played against a buzz saw of a defense and a very capable offense and had long stretches of effectiveness against both.

Alright, Bama-Georgia has started. It's off to watch that.

Injuries Abound

Tomorrow we'll start previewing South Carolina. Today we're going to talk about injuries, which I hesitate to do because I'm not sure I can say anything about them that hasn't been said ad nauseum already.

Early Doucet (pictured) and Matt Flynn are acknowledged by the coaching staff to be injured. Who knows who else isn't acknowledged to be injured? Doucet's injury is some kind of groin/abdominal injury. There is MUCH discussion of it on the message boards. If you go to TigerDroppings, you'll probably see half a dozen threads on the first page with titles like, "Does anyone know about Doucet's injury?"

Lots of people claim to know a lot about Early's injury, all claiming inside knowledge. They don't seem to agree with one another about his prognosis, however, so we don't know who has reliable information.

Opinions vary from "He'll be back for the Florida game" to "He's out for most of the year." However much he is out, it is a serious blow to this team and to this young man.

First, the team. Obviously, Early Doucet is our most experienced receiver. He started the season with about 10x more career receptions than the rest of our receiver corps combined. He's a veteran of some of the great SEC battles of the last few years. He's caught last-minute touchdown passes to win games against Arizona State and Tennessee. He's the best red zone receiver in recent memory at LSU. He's a guy we could count on in the clutch to make the big catch. We have a lot of other receivers with ability, but none with the proven record of performance. He's also a team leader.

Second, the man. This is Early's senior year. He's been here four years now, and it's finally his team. It's a few other people's team, but it's his team as well. In the past, he's shared the spotlight with Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis, and before that it was Joseph Addai's and Andrew Whitworth's team, among others. It's hard to explain the mentality of an athlete in his senior year, particularly one like Early who has relished the leadership role and thrived in it. The seniors are the ones everyone looks to, and they're the ones who "own" the team, so to speak. If he didn't relish the leadership role, he could have gone to the NFL last year and probably been picked around the 2nd round. Instead he came back. I hope this injury doesn't cost him his senior year.

Matt Flynn's injury is a high ankle sprain, a term I don't think I had ever heard ten years ago. Now, I seem to hear it all the time. Flynn (pictured) could have played against MTSU but was held out for precautionary reasons. One thing they all say about high ankle sprains is that they just seem to linger and linger and linger without ever getting better. I hope that's not the case with Flynn.

At least, in Flynn's case, he's healthy enough to play right now. If it doesn't get better, he can still go as long as it doesn't get worse. Of course, an injury that limits Matt Flynn as a runner limits one of the strengths of his game. If Matt Flynn can't run, he's probably not as good of a QB right now as is Ryan Perrilloux.

Like with Doucet, Matt Flynn is in his senior year. Unlike Doucet, who previously shared the spotlight, Flynn has yielded it. This season is even more important then for Matt Flynn, who doesn't have as much past glory as Early Doucet has.

I would sure like to get Flynn back for the Tulane game to warm up for the Florida game, which now looks like the toughest game on our schedule. Perrilloux has filled in admirably, but I'd rather have a veteran like Flynn for that tough game.

OK, that's actually a picture of Matt Damon, but darnit the resemblance is uncanny and I couldn't find a head shot of Matt Flynn.

Switching gears, there's been a lot of talk about Les Miles not discussing injuries with the media. I am an attorney, but I am not a health care attorney so take this information for what it's worth. It is my opinion that it is illegal for football coaches to discuss players' injuries with the public without the express consent of the player. The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (which makes health insurance neither portable nor accountable, but that's a discussion for a different blog) generally forbids health care provider from giving out your health care information without consent. It is my conclusion that the athletic trainers on the team and the team doctors are health care providers within the purview of the statute. The head coach, then, is a co-worker with the players' health care providers, and therefore are just are subject to its laws. The head coach would be treated just like the secretary at the doctors' office in that model.

Violation of HIPAA's privacy provisions can subject a person to civil liability. It wouldn't be a big deal, and I think it's very unlikely that Early Doucet and/or Matt Flynn would ever actually sue the university for discussing their injuries, but it is generally a good idea to obey federal laws whenever possible. Smart coaches who understand the privacy laws are starting to be more closed-mouthed about injuries, Les Miles among them.

Plus, I'm pretty sure Miles would rather keep that information out of the hands of his opponents anyway.

Game Day: MTSU

OK, it's Game Day again, this time for the Blue Raiders of MTSU. This will be a first for GeauxTuscaloosa, a football game that I will not be seeing. As explained earlier in the week, I will not be able to be home for this game. I'll be at a wedding for a friend. Yes, it's a friend who isn't interested in football.

I won't be able to listen to much of it on the radio, but I may be able to catch the second half on the way home. That means there won't be any "First Replay" or "Second Replay" posts. I'll have to figure out other things to talk about.

I'll also miss all of the second most interesting game in the SEC this week: Alabama vs. Arkansas. I said we'd find out more about Bama with their matchup against Vandy, and we did. We found out that Bama is a legitimate bowl team who is a threat to beat any team on their schedule. This week, we will find out even more. We'll find out if they're a legitimate threat in the SEC West, or are they just spoilers trying to get to the Music City Bowl.

So, here's my schedule of the day:

Now to 11:30am: Avoid GameDay on ESPN like the plague. Do some errands. Walk the dog. There is no interesting 11:00am game, so skip that.

11:30-2:30pm: Mississippi State at Auburn: Here in Tuscaloosa, sports talk radio has been absolutely dominated by criticism of Auburn this week. The Auburn fans are very upset at how bad their team has looked the first two weeks. I think highly of Tommy Tuberville's coaching abilities, but there is no one to blame but him for the fact that Auburn has such a poor offensive line and a lack of playmaking wide receivers. He's been recruiting and coaching these guys for their entire careers, and if they didn't recruit good receivers and offensive linemen 3 and 4 years ago such that he does not have that wave of juniors and seniors ready to take the reins of the offense, that's his own fault. Auburn fans are right to criticize him for it.

If you're 7 years into your tenure as coach and a true freshman is starting on the offensive line, either that freshman must be incredible or you have a lot to answer for. It looks like Tubby has a lot to answer for.

With such an inexperienced offense, this is a team that is likely to improve considerably over the course of the season, but for right now they're vulnerable, and it's my conclusion from observing these teams that MSU matches up pretty well with Auburn. They have a pretty good defensive line that can take advantage of Auburn's inexperienced offensive front and a very good left tackle who may be able to neutralize Auburn's best player, Quentin Groves. If Michael Henig can avoid the mistakes that doomed them against LSU, they have a shot to win this game.

If MSU wins, it's going to be a VERY interesting week in Alabama.

2:30-4:30, Tennessee at Florida. This is a very interesting game, because we don't really know how good Florida is. They've beaten up on some weak teams early in the year, but haven't faced a real test. Then again, we don't know how good Tennessee is either. Their defense certainly looked very vulnerable against Cal, and now they're missing a starting cornerback to injury.

I think Tennessee will get its points. The questions are

1. Can Florida's inexperienced and untested defense hold Tennessee's offense to a reasonable number of points, giving its offense a chance to win the game?
2. Has Tennessee's suspect defense improved as a result of its embarrassment against Cal enough to hold Tebow and company to a reasonable point total to give Lamarcus Coker and Erik Ainge a chance to win?

4:30-7:00pm: Drive to Jackson, Mississippi. I don't know what, if anything will be on the radio.

7:00pm-9:00pm or so: Attend wedding reception: The wedding itself is a small, very private family affair to which I am not invited (neither is anyone else who isn't related, from what I understand. The reception is where the action is. I decided not to get a hotel, because my wife and child will not be there. My wife was invited, but it was not possible to bring the baby because the venue is an art museum, with no children allowed in the building. That would have meant we'd have to get a sitter for the baby, and the whole thing just seemed way to fraught with danger and difficulty. Therefore, I'm going alone, and I'm coming back the same night.

9:00pm-whenever: I will be driving home, hoping to catch the second half of the game on the radio. As I get closer to Tuscaloosa, WWL will likely go out, and I'll switch over to the Bama-Arky game if it's still on.

The rumors around the message board is that Flynn is walking around in a boot and either a) is not ready to go, or b) shouldn't play and risk more serious injury. If so, it looks like Ryan Perrilloux may get his long-awaited first start. Stay tuned.

SEC Preview plus Matt Flynn

I can't help but notice that comments have slowed down considerably since I started posting Bullwinkle-related images at the front of blog entries. If there's a correlation there, I'm highly disappointed in my readership. Come on! It's Bullwinkle!

I woke up this morning to this headline on Tiger Bait: "Flynn Questionable". Miles says he's day to day, and that we'll know more about whether he'll play tomorrow. Also questionable is strong safety Craig Steltz.

Around the SEC:

Mississippi State at Auburn, 11:30am, Lincoln Financial. I know I've said that I doubted MSU would win a conference game all season, but allow me to present this game as a potential upset. Having watched both of these teams play, I think MSU matches up pretty well against them. Auburn has a great right side defensive end in Quentin Groves, but MSU matches up with a left tackle (Michael Brown) who held Kirston Pittman in check for a whole game the week before Pittman earned SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week honors for his performance against Virginia Tech. Auburn's offensive line is VERY suspect, and MSU's defensive line is quite good. If Michael Henig can take care of the ball and if Michael Brown can hold Quentin Groves in check, MSU has a shot here.

Western Carolina at Georgia, noon: Georgia gets a salve for its post-South Carolina wounds by playing a D1-AA school that Bama absolutely trounced. Next week: Bama.

Tennessee at Florida, 2:30pm CBS: Finally, a CBS afternoon game. Tennessee's defense looked pretty bad against Cal, and frankly Tim Tebow looks like he's going to be the hardest person to defend in the entire conference this year. He's going to give defensive coordinators fits all year. I don't think there is a single person in the conference, not even Darren McFadden, who is so heavily integrated into his team's offense than is Tim Tebow for Florida. I think to beat Florida's offense, you have to play disciplined assignment-based defense; you need corners who can cover good receivers man-to-man; you need defensive linemen who can penetrate consistently; and you need linebackers fast and athletic enough to stop runners from getting to the corner. If your cornerbacks need to provide run support, they'll fake a run and throw it to the receiver the corner isn't covering.

The good news, if you're Tennessee, is that it looks like Florida's defense is going to give up a lot of points. This really is an interesting matchup, and it could get very high scoring. Tennessee's defense is going to have to play better than it did against Cal, but honestly Florida doesn't have the kind of speed that burned Tennessee repeatedly. I'm not saying Florida has no speed, but Cal had all-world type speed.

Arkansas at Bama, 5:45 ESPN: Bama has looked better than expected, but they haven't faced a guy like McFadden. This will be a tremendous test of their questionable front seven. Even without Marcus Monk, Arky is a bigger test than Vandy. Bama will get a big boost from their home crowd, but if McFadden or Jones breaks off a big run early, that could take the crowd out of it. On the offensive side of the ball, Bama really has to get John Parker Wilson rolling. He doesn't have a touchdown pass yet and is averaging only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. He's been one of the least effective QBs in the conference so far this season. I don't know much about Arkansas's defense, but they'll probably need Wilson to have a break out game if they hope to win this one.

Another interesting stat about John Parker Wilson: he has not scored a rushing touchdown either this season or last season. He was the only full-time starting quarterback in the SEC last year not to score a rushing touchdown last year. So far, five SEC quarterbacks have scored rushing touchdowns.

Ole Miss at Vandy, 6:00pm: Vandy, a team I maintain should be pretty good, tries to recover from a pretty devastating loss to Bama last week. They're better than Ole Miss, or at least they're better than the Ole Miss team that gave up about 1000 yards to Missouri. If not for some very untimely penalties and an injury to their QB, last week's game could have been different. If Nickson is healthy, look for him to try to take revenge on Ole Miss.

South Carolina State at South Carolina, 6:00pm: Honestly, what is there to say that hasn't already been said. It's "State" versus "U". What more do you need?

Louisville at Kentucky, 6:30pm, ESPN Classic: That's right, it's on ESPN Classic. What does this say about this matchup? Nothing, really, but it is actually quite an interesting looking game. Frankly, despite Louisville's lofty top 10 ranking, they still have a lot to prove after giving up 42 points to Middle Tennessee State University. Granted, they scored 58 points against MTSU, and Kentucky is not known for stellar defense, but they can't afford to leave receivers open the way they did. If you don't believe it, check out the picture to the left. Neither of these teams has really proven to be any good this year. I suppose that's what they mean when they describe this as a "Credibility Game". The winner gets to say, in all honesty, that they've accomplished something. Good luck Cats.

Slow news day

I don't have much to discuss today, so I thought I'd go with a basic, "What worries me"-style post. What about the 2007 LSU football team worries me? If my worries have an overarching them, they are that we have inexperienced players at some key positions, and a key out-of-conference showdown against a good Virginia Tech team in week 2.

Here's a breakdown.

First, I'd have to say quarterback. If any LSU fan is being honest with himself, he has to acknowledge that there is the potential for QB to be a problem next year. After all, it is undeniable that no SEC team will be starting a QB in 2007 who took fewer meaningful snaps in 2006 than did Matt Flynn.

I'm not saying, "Matt Flynn is terrible," or, "Matt Flynn will struggle." I am saying that Matt Flynn could struggle. Yes, I remember the Peach Bowl against Miami. I am just not sure he'll repeat that level of performance.

The good news is that Flynn has had a lot of time in practice to hone his skills and to prepare. He could end up being a very good player and very effective at his position.

Second, I worry about the right side of the offensive line. We will have two new starters on that side. Will they make room for the runners? Will they protect the quarterback?We'll just have to see.

The fact is, too, that projected starters Lyle Hitt and Carnell Stewart are both converted from other positions. Hitt was a tight end and Stewart was a defensive lineman early in their college careers. I'm not sure that means anything, but it's an interesting fact.

Third, I worry about the wide receivers. In particular, I worry about the wide receivers other than Early Doucet, who I think is awesome. The only other receiver with any meaningful time is Brandon Lafell, and I'm just not sold on him yet. His most effective route last year was one that Matt Flynn may not be able to throw with regularity: the 40 yard bomb. He wasn't effective in traffic or on shorter routes.

The other returning receivers are Jared Mitchell and Chris Mitchell, who played only at the ends of blow-out games, and Ricky Dixon, who redshirted. None of those guys had any opportunity to show anything meaningful in games last year, but Jared Mitchell did have a crushing block once. It was impressive.

There is also JUCO transfer Demetrius Byrd. Some say he's really good and will be our #2 receiver next year, but he hasn't set foot on the field against SEC competition yet.

After that, we have some highly-touted true freshmen coming in: Terrance Tolliver, Ron Brooks, and John Williams. Brooks and/or Williams may be moved to defensive back. Either way, it is hard to rely on true freshmen at the wide receiver position. Any of these guys could end up great, but it isn't often that a true freshman wide receiver really makes an impact. The last one at LSU was Michael Clayton.

It certainly helps that Doucet is such a good short-yardage and red zone receiver due to his ability to go get a "jump ball". I've never seen a receiver at LSU who was so good at leaving his feet to go up and get a ball.

What does it all mean? Well, I think it's entirely possible, or even likely, that one, two, or all of these worries will ultimately prove unwarranted. However, the worst case scenario is that because of weakness at the QB, WR, and OL positions, we will have an anemic passing game and ultimately a one-dimensional team. It is also possible that this is a problem that will plague us early, but eventually come around late, kind of like our running game last year.

With Virginia Tech sitting there in week 2, that could be very worrisome.

My question is this: If, as many people expect, LSU is beating Mississippi State soundly in the first week, when should we remove the starters?*

Well, I think other than the positions mentioned, we can remove the starters at a normal time. However, I think Flynn, the receivers, and the offensive line need to have as much time as possible to gel in preparation for week 2. What's more, we shouldn't close the playbook with a big lead. It is too important for the next week.

* Yes, I know this sounds like I am looking past Mississippi State. I certainly think it is possible that Mississippi State will play us tough or even beat us. However, objectively, we have to realize that Mississippi State was terrible last year, and that there is little reason to believe they'll be any better this year.

LSU Quarterback Situation

On Friday, one or two people on TigerDroppings accused me of idiocy because I

a. Said that Blake Mitchell was a pretty good quarterback, and
b. Said that at this point I would probably take Blake Mitchell over Matt Flynn.

Then on Saturday, eyewitness reports from the LSU Spring Game said that Flynn looked pretty average and that Perrilloux looked below average. Suddenly, LSU Nation had a bona fide quarterbacking crisis. I wonder if my statement that I would prefer Blake Mitchell at this point would be more popular. I didn't read all the "woe are us" threads, but I doubt anyone made any mention of my day-old statements. On such a high-traffic, high-content site like TigerDroppings, memories usually fade pretty quickly.

Believe me, I was as surprised as anyone could be to find out, through a look at actual statistics, that Mitchell was the second most productive QB in the conference last year, measured on a "per play" basis. I would have guessed he'd have come out behind Leak, Ainge, and Woodson at least. But no; he was ahead of all of them, and behind only Jamarcus Russell. People scoffed. People mocked. People pointed out that Mitchell was benched halfway through the year.

People also pointed out that Mitchell had Sidney Rice to throw to. I don't buy that this made that much of a difference. After all, Leak had Baker, Harvin, and Caldwell. Ainge had Meachem. Woodson had... umm.. well, I'm not sure he had anybody at all. Mitchell was ahead of all of them. Also, Syvelle Newton also had Sidney Rice to throw to, and he ended up behind Mitchell too.

Anyway, enough about Mitchell. This post is supposed to be about Matt Flynn. Reports out off pre-Spring Game practices were that he was doing well. Reports from the game itself differ. I haven't watched one second of practice, so I don't really know. However, I know one thing that troubles me terribly: No SEC team will be starting a QB who took fewer meaningful snaps in 2006 than did Matt Flynn. If that's not a potential team weakness, I don't know what is.

Only one other team will be replacing their full-time starting QB, and that is Florida. Florida at least has the benefit of having gotten Tim Tebow significant meaningful playing time in 2006. Don't get me wrong; Tebow still has to prove he can perform every down and deal with the inevitable adversity that comes with being a starter. For a sophomore, however, he has quite a bit of competitive experience.

Flynn, as a 5th year senior, has significant practice experience going against some of the best defenses in the country. He has a lot of mop-up duty experience. He had a very good game against Miami in the Peach Bowl two years ago. He had some other less than spectacular appearances in his career as well. I ultimately think Flynn will be a very good QB, but we can't overlook the fact that his level of responsibility has never been what it will be next year, and he is NOT the quarterback that Jamarcus Russell was. Russell was special, and could do things that a defense had never seen before. Flynn is a more conventional talent. There are bound to be some growing pains as he improves.

The good news is that he will have what may be an exceptionally good running attack to lean on while he gets accustomed to being The Man. And he will have an exceptionally good defense erasing any errors.