Don't overlook Poseur's latest post below. For those of you who are relatively new to this web site, Poseur is a friend of mine I asked to do some guest blogging for me. He then quickly got absorbed in a time-consuming class in law school that robbed him of his capacity to indulge in football-related blogging. Now that the class is over (or at least winding down), I expect we'll hear from Poseur a little more. And that will be a good thing, because if you thought *I* was a sports geek, wait until you get a load of him.
Anyway, it will be a short "Around the SEC" this week, because I am not going through all those homecoming blowouts, and there were only two other in-conference games this week. It was, however, an interesting week despite the lack of quantity of games. Both divisions came more into focus than they previously had been, though three teams still have a realistic shot at the East.
Florida 49
Vandy 22
This game went about as expected, I guess. Florida's athletes were just too much for Vandy. In particular Harvin, Tebow, and Caldwell were too much for Vandy, as were the plethora of young athletes the Gators have on defense. My brother was here this weekend, and he observed that Florida is going to be awesome next year. They won't lose a whole lot of talent outside of Caldwell and DE Derrick Harvey. They'll probably be preseason #1 in the country.
But this year, they're still trying to get to the SEC Championship Game. They're still in it. They have to beat South Carolina next week and then hope for some help, but they don't need an outrageous amount of help. In fact, I think if they win, they're the odds-on favorite to be the East's representative.
Arkansas 48
South Carolina 36
Wow. Two words: McFadden. He tied an SEC record for most rushing yards in a game with 321. Think about that. In the 75 year history of the SEC, historically a running conference, Darren McFadden came in and set a record for rushing yards in a season. Against a pretty good team. While splitting carries with another back. And he threw the ball for a touchdown once.
Do you think this guy can play football? The SEC is blessed to have two very special talents in the conference right now, and McFadden is one of them. It's too bad his team has been so middling this year, and that he has been playing hurt lately, because it has robbed us of seeing this guy play at his best.
And oh yeah, he's our GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week. You get that when you set a single-game record for rushing yards and throw for a touchdown. I can say with great certainty that for as long as I am giving out this award, if a player sets or ties a record for either rushing, passing, or receiving, and then scores a touchdown doing one of the two other things among rushing, passing, or receiving, he will be receive the award.
What does it all mean?
Well, it means once again LSU appears to be on the verge of playing a team that will be absolutely at its best when we get them. Arkansas looked dead, and now they're coming back and looking like they'll be the formidable opponent we thought they'd be early in the season.
The Florida win and the South Carolina loss mean that South Carolina is now out of the East race. They are finished. I hope they can mentally recover, but I doubt they can. They've now lost three consecutive games and have gone from a BCS contender to a team that may not make it to a bowl game. They're bowl-eligible, but the SEC may still have 11 bowl-eligible teams. You'll need 7 wins to be assured of a bowl game this year, and South Carolina is sitting at 6 and staring at games against ranked teams Florida and Clemson to finish out the season.
Tennessee controls its destiny in the East. Georgia needs to win out and hope for a Tennessee loss against Arkansas, Vandy, or Kentucky. Florida needs to beat South Carolina and hope for Tennessee to lose and for Georgia to lose to either Auburn or Kentucky. Really, any of these teams can still win the whole thing.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Monday, November 5, 2007
Luck
Poseur checking in…
If there has been two general comments about LSU seasons so far it has been this: 1) LSU is way more talented than anybody but manages to not play to their ability and 2) LSU is really lucky. OK, these two beliefs aren’t anyway consistent when you stop to think about it. I believe #1 is pretty much correct. LSU is loaded with potential draft picks but manages to play nail-biter after nail-biter against teams it should blow out on paper. The Alabama game was probably just the worst example of it, as LSU made penalty after penalty and committed turnover after turnover.
“Luck is the residue of design.” – Branch Rickey
I want to talk about luck. If Belief #1 is correct, that LSU has extremely talented but finds ways to keep inferior teams in the game, than there are a lot of words to describe this team… but lucky ain’t one of them. LSU commits more penalties than anyone else in the SEC. That is not luck. It’s probably the complete opposite of luck.
LSU is among the SEC leaders in just about every imaginable statistical category. 4th in scoring offense. 2nd in scoring defense. 4th in total offense. 1st in total defense. Not surprisingly, LSU is 8-1 and leading the SEC. That’s not luck. That’s just being a good team. Luck would be if the team could barely find ways to score yet won every week.
The Tigers have played four straight games that have gone down to the wire, and they’ve gone 3-1 in those games. So we can assume they just weren’t lucky against Kentucky. The Florida game involved all those fourth down conversions, but were any of those plays lucky? There was no trick play, there was no lucky bounce. It just required Les Miles making some ballsy calls. The luck was simply having the guts to go for it.
How was Auburn lucky? Sure, there was a conversion for a TD on the last play of the game, but that’s not a luck. If that play happens with 8:42 left in the third quarter, it passes without comment. It was just a simple deep route. Nothing fancy, nothing lucky. Just executing a play in the clutch.
How was Bama lucky? The only reason the game was even close was because LSU played so bad as to let Bama in the game. They allowed 34 points in a game in which they allowed negative rushing yards. LSU played about as bad as a team can play and still won. It wasn’t a performance I’d describe as lucky.
This is not a lucky team. It is a maddeningly inconsistent team. It is team that plays on pure emotion, meaning it runs both hot and cold. It is a team that can’t seem to stand success and makes things difficult on itself. It is not a lucky team. Dumb? That might be fair. Inconsistent? Yes. The most talented and exciting LSU team I have ever seen in my entire life? Most definitely. But lucky? Absolutely not.
But let’s put it like this, I’ll put LSU up against anyone in the country anywhere and anytime. You want lucky? How about Ohio State’s luck that the Big Ten has absolutely imploded this year? That isn’t to say OSU isn’t good, they have certainly earned the benefit of the doubt, but the Buckeyes have played only one team ranked in the BCS top 25 (#23 Penn St). LSU has played five. It’s not in their control that the Big Ten stinks this year, but I’ll trade their luck for our luck.
If there has been two general comments about LSU seasons so far it has been this: 1) LSU is way more talented than anybody but manages to not play to their ability and 2) LSU is really lucky. OK, these two beliefs aren’t anyway consistent when you stop to think about it. I believe #1 is pretty much correct. LSU is loaded with potential draft picks but manages to play nail-biter after nail-biter against teams it should blow out on paper. The Alabama game was probably just the worst example of it, as LSU made penalty after penalty and committed turnover after turnover.
“Luck is the residue of design.” – Branch Rickey
I want to talk about luck. If Belief #1 is correct, that LSU has extremely talented but finds ways to keep inferior teams in the game, than there are a lot of words to describe this team… but lucky ain’t one of them. LSU commits more penalties than anyone else in the SEC. That is not luck. It’s probably the complete opposite of luck.
LSU is among the SEC leaders in just about every imaginable statistical category. 4th in scoring offense. 2nd in scoring defense. 4th in total offense. 1st in total defense. Not surprisingly, LSU is 8-1 and leading the SEC. That’s not luck. That’s just being a good team. Luck would be if the team could barely find ways to score yet won every week.
The Tigers have played four straight games that have gone down to the wire, and they’ve gone 3-1 in those games. So we can assume they just weren’t lucky against Kentucky. The Florida game involved all those fourth down conversions, but were any of those plays lucky? There was no trick play, there was no lucky bounce. It just required Les Miles making some ballsy calls. The luck was simply having the guts to go for it.
How was Auburn lucky? Sure, there was a conversion for a TD on the last play of the game, but that’s not a luck. If that play happens with 8:42 left in the third quarter, it passes without comment. It was just a simple deep route. Nothing fancy, nothing lucky. Just executing a play in the clutch.
How was Bama lucky? The only reason the game was even close was because LSU played so bad as to let Bama in the game. They allowed 34 points in a game in which they allowed negative rushing yards. LSU played about as bad as a team can play and still won. It wasn’t a performance I’d describe as lucky.
This is not a lucky team. It is a maddeningly inconsistent team. It is team that plays on pure emotion, meaning it runs both hot and cold. It is a team that can’t seem to stand success and makes things difficult on itself. It is not a lucky team. Dumb? That might be fair. Inconsistent? Yes. The most talented and exciting LSU team I have ever seen in my entire life? Most definitely. But lucky? Absolutely not.
But let’s put it like this, I’ll put LSU up against anyone in the country anywhere and anytime. You want lucky? How about Ohio State’s luck that the Big Ten has absolutely imploded this year? That isn’t to say OSU isn’t good, they have certainly earned the benefit of the doubt, but the Buckeyes have played only one team ranked in the BCS top 25 (#23 Penn St). LSU has played five. It’s not in their control that the Big Ten stinks this year, but I’ll trade their luck for our luck.
Another Post About the Bama Game
Yesterday's post about the Bama game was, shall we say, perfunctory. I was exhausted from the work of the previous day and insufficient sleep. I think all of my observations about the game can be distilled into two points:
One player I was very impressed with in this game was Darry Beckwith. He's been an unsung hero all year, but on Saturday I thought he was our 2nd best defensive player (I won't say who our best was, but he is VERY VERY big). I saw a post on Tigerdroppings calling him out and saying he was "exposed", and I wondered if this guy watched the same game I watched. I saw Beckwith all over the field making tackles. I also saw him playing despite a shoulder injury and a leg injury of some kind. He was much more visible than, say, Ali Highsmith, and if anyone was exposed or abused it was Danny McCray.
Speaking of McCray, I wouldn't be surprised to see young Mr. Jones take over his spot at nickel back. Several of Bama's big plays came when they caught McCray in single coverage against a receiver.
I don't really have much else to say about the action on the field. After the game, Nick Saban was very gracious on the field. He congratulated Matt Flynn and said, "I hope y'all do it," and he congratulated Les Miles. After this game, as far as I am concerned, the special animosity towards Saban and Bama is greatly diminished. I'm still looking forward to getting them in Tiger Stadium next year though. That will be fun.
Next we get La Tech. The Bulldogs are 4-5 on the season, with some close losses against decent teams (Hawaii, Boise State). They were blown out by Cal and by Ole Miss, and their best win was against New Mexico State. Statistically, nothing really stands out about them. They appear to be a somewhat balanced team offensively, with 1725 yards passing and 1589 yards rushing. They've played low-scoring games (losing 17-6 to Fresno State) and high scoring games (losing 45-44 to Hawaii and 45-31 to Boise). Sure, we're a better team, but this team doesn't look awful from where I'm sitting.
I want to see fundamental football. Avoid penalties and turnovers and put the game away early.
- We make entirely too many mistakes; and
- You only have so much right to complain about winning a game on the road in the SEC.
Demetrius Byrd in man coverage = good things for LSU.I think this is exactly right. Byrd, to me, has been the biggest positive surprise of the midseason. I really didn't expect a late-arriving JUCO guy to be able to contribute at receiver on this team. After his underwhelming first couple of games (he had 4 catches total in his first 4 games), I figured he'd top out at a little-used supporting role player. Hoo boy was that wrong? He's easily our best wide receiver whose first name is not an adjective.
Tyson Jackson gets a lot of penalties for late hits, but he gets more batted-down passes. He's got great vision and knack for that.He's gotten two penalties for late hits that I can remember, but both were huge. One probably cost us the Kentucky game, and the second one almost cost us the Bama game. The Kentucky one was very clear. He hit the QB in the head twice on that play, and a call was certain. I didn't quite buy this one. Yeah, Wilson had thrown the ball. Yes, Jackson hit him hard. But I didn't think it was particularly late, or not late enough to draw a call. That penalty was pretty questionable and it ended up being HUGE.
Chad Jones made a few timely big plays. The coaches made a timely decision to put Doucet in to field punts after Jones bobbled one.This kid looks incredible. He will be an absolute stud next year and will be the best safety in the country as a junior. That said, I actually kind of like him as a punt returner. I know he bobbled one, but he's been the only punt returner to show any kind of gumption back there. I don't know why we can't seem to get any kind of explosion in the return game. With all the athletes we have, why don't we have one who can occasionally bust a return? Even Holliday isn't exactly tearing it up when he gets the ball on kickoffs, and Keiland has done almost nothing on kick returns.
Lafell deserved to be demoted, but he responded well when we finally got him the ball on those underneath routes late in the game. That should help his confidence.According to my brother, Lafell is the one who blew the tackle on the Arenas punt return. I haven't looked at it on replay yet, but he said we had it covered, with a wall of players there, but he ran right to Lafell who whiffed the tackle and then he was gone. That said, Lafell is going to be a heck of a player. He has size and speed and route-running ability. He just needs to get the drops out of his head. He reminds me some of Doucet/Bowe in 2005 when they dropped so many balls. I don't think he's got the talent of a Bowe or Doucet, but he's very solid, perhaps one notch below those guys. If he gets back into the game mentally, he'll have a future in the NFL.
One player I was very impressed with in this game was Darry Beckwith. He's been an unsung hero all year, but on Saturday I thought he was our 2nd best defensive player (I won't say who our best was, but he is VERY VERY big). I saw a post on Tigerdroppings calling him out and saying he was "exposed", and I wondered if this guy watched the same game I watched. I saw Beckwith all over the field making tackles. I also saw him playing despite a shoulder injury and a leg injury of some kind. He was much more visible than, say, Ali Highsmith, and if anyone was exposed or abused it was Danny McCray.
Speaking of McCray, I wouldn't be surprised to see young Mr. Jones take over his spot at nickel back. Several of Bama's big plays came when they caught McCray in single coverage against a receiver.
I don't really have much else to say about the action on the field. After the game, Nick Saban was very gracious on the field. He congratulated Matt Flynn and said, "I hope y'all do it," and he congratulated Les Miles. After this game, as far as I am concerned, the special animosity towards Saban and Bama is greatly diminished. I'm still looking forward to getting them in Tiger Stadium next year though. That will be fun.
Next we get La Tech. The Bulldogs are 4-5 on the season, with some close losses against decent teams (Hawaii, Boise State). They were blown out by Cal and by Ole Miss, and their best win was against New Mexico State. Statistically, nothing really stands out about them. They appear to be a somewhat balanced team offensively, with 1725 yards passing and 1589 yards rushing. They've played low-scoring games (losing 17-6 to Fresno State) and high scoring games (losing 45-44 to Hawaii and 45-31 to Boise). Sure, we're a better team, but this team doesn't look awful from where I'm sitting.
I want to see fundamental football. Avoid penalties and turnovers and put the game away early.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Bama: The Day After
We just can't stand prosperity. With LSU up 17-3 and looking to get the ball back in good field position to put the game away, we made the first of many big mistakes on the game, and that started the ball rolling downhill on us, allowing Bama to take a lead and eventually go ahead in the game by 10 points before we started clawing back to eventually win.
This team cannot stand prosperity, but they are also a gutty team that simply does not quit. This is a team that can't get out of its own way, but simply refuses to let someone else beat them. I've never seen a team like it, and I don't think I can stand to see a team like this again. It's too stressful to watch them play tight, mistake-filled, heroic games. I'm glad we win these games more than we lose them, but we were really on the verge of blowing Bama out before letting them back in it. I'd like to get a nice blowout win in the conference at some point again.
This was a game in which, despite the 34 points on the scoreboard for Bama, our defense really dominated. Bama scored a special teams touchdown and scored 10 points on short fields they got by turnover. They scored another touchdown on a big play where we should have been able to get off the field (I think it was a bad call to flag Tyson Jackson for roughing the passer). Bama only had one really long sustained drive the entire game, and that's to be expected in every game. The defense was great.
The offense struggled, obviously, with three turnovers and another two that were ALMOST turned over. Several times, including late in the first half, it looked like we were in good shape, only to end up behind at halftime, and even further behind late in the 3rd quarter.
As the game was progressing, I didn't notice that Demetrius Byrd ended up with 144 yards receiving. He has really emerged as a heck of a player for us, even though one of Flynn's interceptions was at least partly his fault. He's pretty clearly our #2 receiver right now. He's a finalist for the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week (though if any of you have looked at the box score for the Ark-S.Car. game, you know who's getting it this week).
I don't want to get too caught up in criticism. Fact is, we went on the road in the SEC to a very hostile environment and we came away with a win. In a year like this, any SEC game you win should be satisfying. Heck, any SEC win should be satisfying, even if it's not on the road. This is a season in which Ole Miss took Florida AND Alabama to the wire, and they haven't actually won a conference game. I will say this, however. Any game in which we avoid penalties and turnovers, we will win by at least two touchdowns. Any game we play like last night, we will keep the opponent in the game no matter who they are.
We get Louisiana Tech next, in a game that only matters for the national rankings. I will appreciate the relief. After that, we get Ole Miss, who is certainly capable of beating us if we play mistake-ridden football. If we beat Ole Miss, we play for the conference championship.
This team cannot stand prosperity, but they are also a gutty team that simply does not quit. This is a team that can't get out of its own way, but simply refuses to let someone else beat them. I've never seen a team like it, and I don't think I can stand to see a team like this again. It's too stressful to watch them play tight, mistake-filled, heroic games. I'm glad we win these games more than we lose them, but we were really on the verge of blowing Bama out before letting them back in it. I'd like to get a nice blowout win in the conference at some point again.
This was a game in which, despite the 34 points on the scoreboard for Bama, our defense really dominated. Bama scored a special teams touchdown and scored 10 points on short fields they got by turnover. They scored another touchdown on a big play where we should have been able to get off the field (I think it was a bad call to flag Tyson Jackson for roughing the passer). Bama only had one really long sustained drive the entire game, and that's to be expected in every game. The defense was great.
The offense struggled, obviously, with three turnovers and another two that were ALMOST turned over. Several times, including late in the first half, it looked like we were in good shape, only to end up behind at halftime, and even further behind late in the 3rd quarter.
As the game was progressing, I didn't notice that Demetrius Byrd ended up with 144 yards receiving. He has really emerged as a heck of a player for us, even though one of Flynn's interceptions was at least partly his fault. He's pretty clearly our #2 receiver right now. He's a finalist for the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week (though if any of you have looked at the box score for the Ark-S.Car. game, you know who's getting it this week).
I don't want to get too caught up in criticism. Fact is, we went on the road in the SEC to a very hostile environment and we came away with a win. In a year like this, any SEC game you win should be satisfying. Heck, any SEC win should be satisfying, even if it's not on the road. This is a season in which Ole Miss took Florida AND Alabama to the wire, and they haven't actually won a conference game. I will say this, however. Any game in which we avoid penalties and turnovers, we will win by at least two touchdowns. Any game we play like last night, we will keep the opponent in the game no matter who they are.
We get Louisiana Tech next, in a game that only matters for the national rankings. I will appreciate the relief. After that, we get Ole Miss, who is certainly capable of beating us if we play mistake-ridden football. If we beat Ole Miss, we play for the conference championship.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Game Day: Bama
The game that has been 10 months in the making is finally here, or will be in a few hours. I for one am very excited. Of course, it is even more exciting to me because I live here, in Tuscaloosa, among Bama fans, with a Bama-rooting wife, and with a baby over whom we are struggling for football supremacy.
That baby, by the way, has been incredibly active this morning. I think she senses something in the air and wants to drive her father crazy over it. Now that I've started typing, she has calmed down a little. Uhh.. spoke too soon.
What are my plans for today?
8:00-11:30: Cook gumbo; go to Bruno's and buy a rack of ribs. Over the course of the day, we'll have people coming over for a Louisiana-Alabama fusion of bar-b-que ribs and chicken & sausage gumbo.
11:30-3:00: Vandy at Florida, Lincoln Financial. I haven't seen Vandy play in a while, and I'm looking forward to seeing them again. I'm also looking forward to seeing Florida possibly lose again, though I know it's probably a long-shot. Florida's going to be great next year, but I sure would like to see them end the season at 7-5 or something like that. If Tebow is 100%, forget it. If he's not, the key will be how Vandy can match up with Florida's athletic receivers.
3:00-4:00: Pace around the house a lot. Maybe yell at the dog a little.
4:00-8:00: Need it even be said? Of course, I'll be watching the festivities on television. I've gone over this game enough already, I think, and there's no real reason to talk about the matchup any more. At this point, I just want to plea for sanity. I don't want to see the town become an ugly scene. Whatever happens, Bama fan or LSU fan, please realize it is just football. Get to town, watch the game, and get home without incident. I'll just be staying home, and I'm pretty sure my wife won't try to beat me up.
8:00-11:00 or so: South Carolina at Arkansas, ESPN2. This will be a good come-down from the game. Then tomorrow we get back on with our lives.
That baby, by the way, has been incredibly active this morning. I think she senses something in the air and wants to drive her father crazy over it. Now that I've started typing, she has calmed down a little. Uhh.. spoke too soon.
What are my plans for today?
8:00-11:30: Cook gumbo; go to Bruno's and buy a rack of ribs. Over the course of the day, we'll have people coming over for a Louisiana-Alabama fusion of bar-b-que ribs and chicken & sausage gumbo.
11:30-3:00: Vandy at Florida, Lincoln Financial. I haven't seen Vandy play in a while, and I'm looking forward to seeing them again. I'm also looking forward to seeing Florida possibly lose again, though I know it's probably a long-shot. Florida's going to be great next year, but I sure would like to see them end the season at 7-5 or something like that. If Tebow is 100%, forget it. If he's not, the key will be how Vandy can match up with Florida's athletic receivers.
3:00-4:00: Pace around the house a lot. Maybe yell at the dog a little.
4:00-8:00: Need it even be said? Of course, I'll be watching the festivities on television. I've gone over this game enough already, I think, and there's no real reason to talk about the matchup any more. At this point, I just want to plea for sanity. I don't want to see the town become an ugly scene. Whatever happens, Bama fan or LSU fan, please realize it is just football. Get to town, watch the game, and get home without incident. I'll just be staying home, and I'm pretty sure my wife won't try to beat me up.
8:00-11:00 or so: South Carolina at Arkansas, ESPN2. This will be a good come-down from the game. Then tomorrow we get back on with our lives.
Friday, November 2, 2007
But What About the Game?
Alright, I plead guilty. I've been more caught up in the pageantry of the game and the sideline stories than I've been caught up in the actual football to be played. I'm here this morning to correct that.
Where are the key matchups on the field? What sort of strategy do I expect the teams to employ? Where will they find the success?
For the LSU offense, I expect them to run the ball. Big surprise. But let's look a little past that. We've run a lot of Hester lately, but I expect that the speed guys may have a lot more success in this game. I think that means more of Keiland, more of Holliday, and more of Murphy. We'll start with Hester but I see us moving to the speedier guys as the game progresses.
Our passing game should be much more effective now that we have Early Doucet back, and while I expect us to continue running more than we pass, it is my hope and expectation that we will be more efficient in the passing game. Bama has good corners, but has been somewhat vulnerable when their safeties have been caught in one-on-one situations. We'll run to set up the pass, the same way we have all year. It seems like our passing identity has finally emerged, and we appear to be more of a safe passing team, going to tight ends and into the middle of the field a lot. We've had success going to Richard Dickson and to the deep middle of the field.
On defense, we've had a lot of problems lately with teams going to middle of our zone. They've also had success with power running right at us. Fortunately, Bama doesn't really have a power running game. They excel at the speed running game with Terry Grant, who is a big play scat back. The key will be stopping Grant and putting the passing game into obvious passing situations.
In those obvious passing situations, expect Bama to move their best receiver, DJ Hall, around the formation to try to find and exploit mismatches. Hall is a guy who can exploit a zone and can't really be covered by a safety one-on-one. I wouldn't describe him as a speed guy, but he's big, he runs good routes, and he doesn't drop the ball. If we sit back in a soft zone and give the quarterback time to throw, DJ Hall will pick us apart. However, I think they can be beaten on the line, and we can have a lot of success with opportunistic blitzes.
Of course, games in the SEC are often won on the lines, and I think we have a fairly significant advantage here, especially when we're on defense. The Bama offensive line played its best game last week without two of its starters, but frankly Tennessee's defense is not as good as usual this year, and they were unable to exploit the problems on the Bama offensive line (or the Bama energy and emotion for that matter). If those guys continue to be out, I think we'll be able to exploit their absence a little more.
Our problem here is that we haven't gotten consistent pressure on quarterbacks except when we blitz, and that has definitely hurt us. I don't expect our best pass rusher, Kirston Pittman, to have a lot of success going against Andre Smith, but our other guys should be expected to get to the quarterback. They haven't done it consistently this year, and if they don't do it this week we'll be exploited in the passing game.
I'm a big believer in the idea that you have to rush as many as it takes to get pressure. It doesn't matter how many you drop into coverage, if the quarterback has 5 seconds in the pocket, a halfway decent one will find an open receiver. John Parker Wilson is no exception. The Wilson-Hall combination is lethal if Hall has time to complete a route and Wilson has time to find him. We will have to get to Wilson to stop that passing game, and I really hope that this means Pelini will get out of the soft zones we've been playing.
On special teams, Bama has a very good returner we'll have to neutralize. Hopefully we won't do it by squib kicking and giving Bama the ball on the 40 every time, like some teams have done at times.
Where are the key matchups on the field? What sort of strategy do I expect the teams to employ? Where will they find the success?
For the LSU offense, I expect them to run the ball. Big surprise. But let's look a little past that. We've run a lot of Hester lately, but I expect that the speed guys may have a lot more success in this game. I think that means more of Keiland, more of Holliday, and more of Murphy. We'll start with Hester but I see us moving to the speedier guys as the game progresses.
Our passing game should be much more effective now that we have Early Doucet back, and while I expect us to continue running more than we pass, it is my hope and expectation that we will be more efficient in the passing game. Bama has good corners, but has been somewhat vulnerable when their safeties have been caught in one-on-one situations. We'll run to set up the pass, the same way we have all year. It seems like our passing identity has finally emerged, and we appear to be more of a safe passing team, going to tight ends and into the middle of the field a lot. We've had success going to Richard Dickson and to the deep middle of the field.
On defense, we've had a lot of problems lately with teams going to middle of our zone. They've also had success with power running right at us. Fortunately, Bama doesn't really have a power running game. They excel at the speed running game with Terry Grant, who is a big play scat back. The key will be stopping Grant and putting the passing game into obvious passing situations.
In those obvious passing situations, expect Bama to move their best receiver, DJ Hall, around the formation to try to find and exploit mismatches. Hall is a guy who can exploit a zone and can't really be covered by a safety one-on-one. I wouldn't describe him as a speed guy, but he's big, he runs good routes, and he doesn't drop the ball. If we sit back in a soft zone and give the quarterback time to throw, DJ Hall will pick us apart. However, I think they can be beaten on the line, and we can have a lot of success with opportunistic blitzes.
Of course, games in the SEC are often won on the lines, and I think we have a fairly significant advantage here, especially when we're on defense. The Bama offensive line played its best game last week without two of its starters, but frankly Tennessee's defense is not as good as usual this year, and they were unable to exploit the problems on the Bama offensive line (or the Bama energy and emotion for that matter). If those guys continue to be out, I think we'll be able to exploit their absence a little more.
Our problem here is that we haven't gotten consistent pressure on quarterbacks except when we blitz, and that has definitely hurt us. I don't expect our best pass rusher, Kirston Pittman, to have a lot of success going against Andre Smith, but our other guys should be expected to get to the quarterback. They haven't done it consistently this year, and if they don't do it this week we'll be exploited in the passing game.
I'm a big believer in the idea that you have to rush as many as it takes to get pressure. It doesn't matter how many you drop into coverage, if the quarterback has 5 seconds in the pocket, a halfway decent one will find an open receiver. John Parker Wilson is no exception. The Wilson-Hall combination is lethal if Hall has time to complete a route and Wilson has time to find him. We will have to get to Wilson to stop that passing game, and I really hope that this means Pelini will get out of the soft zones we've been playing.
On special teams, Bama has a very good returner we'll have to neutralize. Hopefully we won't do it by squib kicking and giving Bama the ball on the 40 every time, like some teams have done at times.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
SEC Preview - Week 10
Sorry for not posting yesterday. I had been up from 3:00am to about 4:30am with the baby, and somehow or another my alarm never quite went off.
It's Homecoming week in the SEC, and there are even fewer interesting-looking games this week than last, but before we get to that, there's a little matter of a certain backup quarterback to discuss. He won't be playing against Bama, or even making the trip, but he's been cleared of wrongdoing and will be back with the team next week. This has apparently greatly upset some of the rumor-mongers on the boards, who think the police are giving him favorable treatment. The official story, however, is that Perrilloux did nothing illegal and that the bouncers (who have been fired, btw) hassled him wrongly.
I disagree with the people who fault Perrilloux simply for being out so late at night. The kid, despite all his problems, is still a college kid, and it's not like he was hanging out at some crack house. He was at a club, reportedly with half the rest of the team with him. Yes, I wonder what his pregnant girlfriend was doing there, but I can't fault the kid for simply being out late at night.
Anyway, onto the games this week.
Vandy at Florida, 11:30am Lincoln-Financial. I'm glad Vandy showed the sort of life I had been expecting of them a couple weeks ago against the Gamecocks. Do they have a chance against Florida? Sure they do. But is it a realistic chance? Well, I think it's a realistic chance if Tebow is still at well below 100%. The ESPN preview of the game makes no mention of Tebow's health, which is what you get from ESPN sometimes. Tebow at less than 100% is an ordinary player, and Florida with an ordinary quarterback this year is an ordinary team. Vandy is also an ordinary team, which means that if Tebow isn't Tebow-esque, Florida and Vandy are roughly even. Still, Vandy does not have a whole lot of athletes on defense, and I believe that even without Tebow's running, their secondary probably isn't much of a match for Harvin-Caldwell-Ingram.
Troy at Georgia
Northwestern St. at Ole Miss
Tennessee Tech at Auburn
ULaLa at Tennessee
Like I said, it's Homecoming week. I assume all of these games are the Homecoming games for their respective home teams. The biggest mismatch is TTU at Auburn. Tennessee Tech is riding a four game losing streak, including losses to Samford, Austin Peay, and Jacksonville St. Auburn can name its score. If you're looking for upset potential, how about Troy at Georgia? Troy is 6-2, including a win against Oklahoma State and tough losses against Florida and Arkansas. Troy is actually a pretty solid OOC opponent, and Georgia is set for a letdown. I'm not saying it'll happen, but if there's a trap game on this list, this is it.
LSU at Bama, 4:00 CBS. Yeah, you know about this one. In all the hoopla about the Perrilloux situation, the situation going on with Bama's offensive line has been strangely underreported. The University (not the team) has suspended 5 players from the Bama team over a scandal involving textbooks, including two starting offensive linemen. My understanding of it is this. Football players get a textbook allowance, and what they do is go to the campus bookstore and get their books, drawing from an account. What these five players did was get textbooks through this process, not for themselves, but for their friends. My understanding is that they did not profit from this, but were simply doing favors for their friends.
The result is that 5 players, including two starting offensive linemen and two frequently-used reserve players (a running back and a defensive back) were not available for their last game against Tennessee, and their status for this game remains uncertain. It didn't hurt them last week, as they ended up playing their best game of the season in the absence of those players. However, Tennessee's D-line is not nearly as good as our defensive line, and I don't think Bama wants to go through this game without their best 5 on the offensive line.
We'll know in the next day or so whether they'll be playing.
I'll have more on this game tomorrow.
South Carolina at Arkansas, 7:00pm ESPN2. Let's see. Kentucky has lost 3 of its last 4. Florida has lost 3 of its last 4. And South Carolina has lost 2 in a row after starting the season 6-1. The teams in the East that looked like the best now look very very average. South Carolina still has a chance in the East, but they have to win out and hope for help. They need Georgia and Tennessee to lose, but the good news is that there's a very good chance that will happen, as Georgia gets Auburn and Kentucky down the stretch and Tennessee gets Arkansas, Vandy, and Kentucky.
Obviously, when talking about Arkansas, you start with their running backs. We all know how good they are (hint: very very good), but the question is always how the other team's defense matches up. I think South Carolina's defense matches up pretty well. They've been solid all year, and there are good athletes at defensive line and linebacker, as well as at corner to help on the ends. Arkansas isn't a good enough team to beat you unless you let them run all over you, and I think South Carolina has a good chance of keeping that from happening. Arkansas does not have the passing game or the defense to really beat you in those phases of the game.
I think that if South Carolina comes out and plays, they will win. The question is whether or not this team is collapsing following these tough losses to Tennessee and Vandy. South Carolina is not a team that has a history of winning when times get tough. They have a gut-check this week.
It's Homecoming week in the SEC, and there are even fewer interesting-looking games this week than last, but before we get to that, there's a little matter of a certain backup quarterback to discuss. He won't be playing against Bama, or even making the trip, but he's been cleared of wrongdoing and will be back with the team next week. This has apparently greatly upset some of the rumor-mongers on the boards, who think the police are giving him favorable treatment. The official story, however, is that Perrilloux did nothing illegal and that the bouncers (who have been fired, btw) hassled him wrongly.
I disagree with the people who fault Perrilloux simply for being out so late at night. The kid, despite all his problems, is still a college kid, and it's not like he was hanging out at some crack house. He was at a club, reportedly with half the rest of the team with him. Yes, I wonder what his pregnant girlfriend was doing there, but I can't fault the kid for simply being out late at night.
Anyway, onto the games this week.
Vandy at Florida, 11:30am Lincoln-Financial. I'm glad Vandy showed the sort of life I had been expecting of them a couple weeks ago against the Gamecocks. Do they have a chance against Florida? Sure they do. But is it a realistic chance? Well, I think it's a realistic chance if Tebow is still at well below 100%. The ESPN preview of the game makes no mention of Tebow's health, which is what you get from ESPN sometimes. Tebow at less than 100% is an ordinary player, and Florida with an ordinary quarterback this year is an ordinary team. Vandy is also an ordinary team, which means that if Tebow isn't Tebow-esque, Florida and Vandy are roughly even. Still, Vandy does not have a whole lot of athletes on defense, and I believe that even without Tebow's running, their secondary probably isn't much of a match for Harvin-Caldwell-Ingram.
Troy at Georgia
Northwestern St. at Ole Miss
Tennessee Tech at Auburn
ULaLa at Tennessee
Like I said, it's Homecoming week. I assume all of these games are the Homecoming games for their respective home teams. The biggest mismatch is TTU at Auburn. Tennessee Tech is riding a four game losing streak, including losses to Samford, Austin Peay, and Jacksonville St. Auburn can name its score. If you're looking for upset potential, how about Troy at Georgia? Troy is 6-2, including a win against Oklahoma State and tough losses against Florida and Arkansas. Troy is actually a pretty solid OOC opponent, and Georgia is set for a letdown. I'm not saying it'll happen, but if there's a trap game on this list, this is it.
LSU at Bama, 4:00 CBS. Yeah, you know about this one. In all the hoopla about the Perrilloux situation, the situation going on with Bama's offensive line has been strangely underreported. The University (not the team) has suspended 5 players from the Bama team over a scandal involving textbooks, including two starting offensive linemen. My understanding of it is this. Football players get a textbook allowance, and what they do is go to the campus bookstore and get their books, drawing from an account. What these five players did was get textbooks through this process, not for themselves, but for their friends. My understanding is that they did not profit from this, but were simply doing favors for their friends.
The result is that 5 players, including two starting offensive linemen and two frequently-used reserve players (a running back and a defensive back) were not available for their last game against Tennessee, and their status for this game remains uncertain. It didn't hurt them last week, as they ended up playing their best game of the season in the absence of those players. However, Tennessee's D-line is not nearly as good as our defensive line, and I don't think Bama wants to go through this game without their best 5 on the offensive line.
We'll know in the next day or so whether they'll be playing.
I'll have more on this game tomorrow.
South Carolina at Arkansas, 7:00pm ESPN2. Let's see. Kentucky has lost 3 of its last 4. Florida has lost 3 of its last 4. And South Carolina has lost 2 in a row after starting the season 6-1. The teams in the East that looked like the best now look very very average. South Carolina still has a chance in the East, but they have to win out and hope for help. They need Georgia and Tennessee to lose, but the good news is that there's a very good chance that will happen, as Georgia gets Auburn and Kentucky down the stretch and Tennessee gets Arkansas, Vandy, and Kentucky.
Obviously, when talking about Arkansas, you start with their running backs. We all know how good they are (hint: very very good), but the question is always how the other team's defense matches up. I think South Carolina's defense matches up pretty well. They've been solid all year, and there are good athletes at defensive line and linebacker, as well as at corner to help on the ends. Arkansas isn't a good enough team to beat you unless you let them run all over you, and I think South Carolina has a good chance of keeping that from happening. Arkansas does not have the passing game or the defense to really beat you in those phases of the game.
I think that if South Carolina comes out and plays, they will win. The question is whether or not this team is collapsing following these tough losses to Tennessee and Vandy. South Carolina is not a team that has a history of winning when times get tough. They have a gut-check this week.
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