If it makes it to this blog, I guess it's not news. I didn't know about Nick Saban's weird rant about scholarship numbers until I got into my car to go to work yesterday. The radio was abuzz about it.
In case you haven't heard, at his post-Spring press conference, Nick Saban was asked how he was going to make the scholarship numbers work out, considering he has too many people on scholarship now to add 25 more in the Fall and still be at the 85 limit. His response started with the statement that they have a plan, but it didn't end there.
He got really worked up about the question and was clearly bothered by it. He then said, "The media doesn't need to know and the fans don't need to know. The fans don't want to know." The exchange continued uncomfortably thereafter, with Saban clearly again bothered by a journalist's intrusiveness. The journalist in question was not some rookie or a national media plant. It was Birmingham beat writer Ian Rapaport, who is very Bama-friendly but appears to have gotten under Nick Saban's skin more than once.
Two things about this incident struck me. First, it's not that Saban refuses to answer the question that is really troubling. It's the way he refuses to answer it. It's his tone and his body language, which denotes an air of hostility. Les Miles refuses to answer certain questions to. The man has never honestly answered a question about a player injury except when the injury has ended the player's season. He refused for several months to ever say when Ryan Perrilloux would rejoin the team last season, and then quietly reinstated him at the start of Fall Practice. His manner of refusing to divulge information does not come off quite as disrespectfully as Saban's refusals to answer questions.
Saban is by most accounts a pretty smooth recruiter, which is why it is so surprising that he is so stiff and uncomfortable in front of media. And this was friendly media. I have always heard that when he wants to be charming, he can charm anyone and any crowd, but he gets downright surly with the media, which is where most people see him.
I also think he's wrong about the fans not caring what his plan for dealing with scholarship numbers is. After all, if a major beat writer asked the question, it's probably because the beat writer believes his readers are interested in the answer. Now, many of them, if faced with the response "I have a plan that I won't talk about", would probably be satisfied at least for the time-being, knowing they would eventually find out one way or another. But they care. They're not indifferent to the answers to questions like, "Who are going to be the players on the roster when we play a game?" And that's what the question really is.
Let me just say that I think it's an absolute right of a college football coach not to divulge sensitive information about his team and his players. That's a different thing from saying it's a good idea to hold back certain information, but if a college coach wants to keep information about his program out of the media, I don't think the media is right to claim they need the information for any reason.
This brings me to my second thought about this. Not only does this incident illustrate one of the key differences between Nick Saban and Les Miles, it also illustrates a difference between the LSU fan base and the Alabama fan base. The difference is that I think the Alabama fan base takes a more proprietary view towards their team than does the LSU fan base. By this I mean that the Bama fans feel more ownership of their team than we do of ours. I think there are good effects of this and bad effects of this.
Among the good effects are that the fans continue to come out in droves even when the team is not being successful. The fans continue to identify with the team, buy merchandise, follow the team, travel for road games, and generally care even when the team is losing. If not for this effect, I really don't think Bama draws 92,000 for a Spring Game last year, and I don't think Bama draws in the recruiting class they got in 2008. LSU fan activity dropped off considerably during the Hallman years and the latter Dinardo years, and the team reached a doldrums (particularly in the Hallman years) that led to a lot of fan apathy.
The bad effects are that the fans demand information and accountability. They feel they have a right to know what is going on with the program, and if they don't like it, they want things changed. They can also turn on a coach in a heartbeat. See Shula, Mike. Saban, though he is a good coach, is also a control freak. He is not comfortable with the idea of anyone else but him thinking they have a right to control the team or demand changes. He doesn't even let his assistants talk about the team publicly for fear he will lose message discipline. (Because, as we've seen, Saban is the master of media manipulation and discipline). Presidential candidates aren't this obsessive about controlling message discipline.
These factors are some of the reasons I was skeptical back in 2006 that Saban was a good match for Bama. At LSU, he was allowed to control the message without running into a lot of opposition. He was allowed to be surly with reporters without anyone really caring that much. He was allowed to disregard invitations for public appearances. Here, I don't think he will be able to do those things without taking a little damage. Now, the media and the fans will tolerate it if they win, but only if they win a lot. If 2009 rolls around and Bama is still looking average, the fans could get pretty surly themselves.
Showing posts with label bama. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bama. Show all posts
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Monday, April 14, 2008
Spring Comes To A Close
One thing you have to realize is that in the State of Alabama, spring football is a much bigger deal than it is in Louisiana. Always has been. It came as a big surprise to me when I moved to Tuscaloosa 5 1/2 years ago just how big the Spring Game was. The Spring Game actually created traffic problems similar to what a real game would cause, but on a smaller scale.
That provided the foundation that the Saban-hysteria acted upon to create the Spring Game frenzy that happened last year. Now, it appears that Bama has changed spring football for the foreseeable future around the SEC. Where Spring Games previously, if they were even held, were strictly for devotees who bordered on being hobbyists, it is now being used as an offseason pep rally, designed to create an sustain interest in whatever program is holding it.
This weekend saw Bama's Spring Game draw about 78,000 people into the stands. It wasn't quite a full house, and a far cry from the state of affairs last year when they had to turn 30,000 people away, but it was still significantly above their own high standards. What happened in the game? Who cares? All I know is that one of the two intrasquad teams won. Which one? I have no idea. It's hard to figure out why it would matter.
Also, Florida had its Spring Game, which doubled as 3-ring circus, complete with interactive games where regular students could compete with players for the chance to win a scholarship. The College GameDay guys were on hand to do whatever it is you call what they do.
I'm still trying to work out what it means. Does it have any impact on LSU that we do not generate the same level of excitement for spring football as some other programs? It's hard to know. I feel pretty comfortable saying that Bama's spring fever last year gave them a pretty good shot in the arm for recruiting. It helped, at least in the short term, but it remains to be seen if there sill be any lingering long term benefit beyond the long term benefit of having a really good recruiting class.
It doesn't seem to be hurting us in recruiting this year, as we are going like gangbusters. Maybe it hurt last year, as we lost out on a lot of big recruits who ultimately had us in 2nd place.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Sue Calls Paul Finebaum
I've talked about my love/hate relationship with talk radio before. I find much sports talk radio to be vapid, senseless, and borderline offensive, but I still listen. Well, yesterday, on my way home from work I was listening to Paul Finebaum's show and he got a caller named "Sue".
The call was a long one. Sue did not like the way Finebaum was acting, in particular with regards to Finebaum's famous dust-up with Mark Gottfried's wife at a basketball game about 6 weeks ago. Sue and Finebaum got into a pretty good argument, with Sue making the following points/observations:
Finebaum, of course, resorted to what he's done a whole lot of lately. He dwelled on the fact that Sue was a woman, and that Elizabeth Gottfried was too. He said Gottfried "stuck her breasts in his face." He said he can "never get a woman to stop talking." Finally, Finebaum said, "Sue you obviously just don't understand what the purpose of programs like this are." Then he quizzed her on her sexual ethics, and accused her of having problems with men.
On the contrary, I think Sue knows exactly what the purpose of Finebaum's program is. She just doesn't like it. OK, the comment about the big trucks was way out of line, but honestly we all know people who drive big trucks for no practical purpose.
Of course, when she was done and the program moved on to other topics, Finebaum wasn't done with her. He called her a "stupid bitch" when another caller asked about it. The next caller really struggled to defend Finebaum, saying he wasn't calling for Mal Moore to fire Gottfried but merely "expressing his opinion." Left unsaid is that the "opinion" referenced is that Mal Moore should fire Mark Gottfried.
I say, hats off to Sue. She called him out on his misogyny and he naturally responded by calling her a "stupid bitch" and suggesting that she was a whore. Score one for Finebaum on that one. He clearly proved her wrong.
The call was a long one. Sue did not like the way Finebaum was acting, in particular with regards to Finebaum's famous dust-up with Mark Gottfried's wife at a basketball game about 6 weeks ago. Sue and Finebaum got into a pretty good argument, with Sue making the following points/observations:
- People who call for a coach's firing should be people who somehow contribute in some concrete way to the coach's program. Otherwise, they don't have a stake in it.
- Finebaum has the advantage of being able to continue talking when the caller hangs up.
- People who call his show posture and talk big but never have to actually make a decision.
- His callers are poseurs who act aggressively and drive big trucks to compensate for their insecurities.
- Finebaum himself cries about the fact that Elizabeth Gottfried "accused" him of calling for her husband's firing, which he has in fact done dozens of times.
- Finebaum is a jerk for bringing his beef with Mark Gottfried to Gottfried's wife.
- Finebaum's show encourages the worst kind of bellyaching and ultimately does more harm than good.
- Mal Moore doesn't owe Finebaum or anyone else an explanation for why Gottfried has not been fired.
Finebaum, of course, resorted to what he's done a whole lot of lately. He dwelled on the fact that Sue was a woman, and that Elizabeth Gottfried was too. He said Gottfried "stuck her breasts in his face." He said he can "never get a woman to stop talking." Finally, Finebaum said, "Sue you obviously just don't understand what the purpose of programs like this are." Then he quizzed her on her sexual ethics, and accused her of having problems with men.
On the contrary, I think Sue knows exactly what the purpose of Finebaum's program is. She just doesn't like it. OK, the comment about the big trucks was way out of line, but honestly we all know people who drive big trucks for no practical purpose.
Of course, when she was done and the program moved on to other topics, Finebaum wasn't done with her. He called her a "stupid bitch" when another caller asked about it. The next caller really struggled to defend Finebaum, saying he wasn't calling for Mal Moore to fire Gottfried but merely "expressing his opinion." Left unsaid is that the "opinion" referenced is that Mal Moore should fire Mark Gottfried.
I say, hats off to Sue. She called him out on his misogyny and he naturally responded by calling her a "stupid bitch" and suggesting that she was a whore. Score one for Finebaum on that one. He clearly proved her wrong.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Team Discipline
In listening to talk radio here in central Alabama this week, I have heard a lot of talk about "discipline". Honestly, I do not understand the fan's approach and perspective on team discipline. Many of them seem to have thinly veiled contempt for football players and want them to live in a virtual prison.
I can't begin to tell you how many call-ins have talked about "kids these days" and how discipline in the home is suffering and kids don't have any fear of authority anymore. There may be some truth to it, but the implication here is that Rashad Johnson's parents are to blame. Jeremy Elder's parents are to blame.
Believe me, as an attorney who represents accused juvenile delinquents, I have my own attitudes and perspectives on certain parents. However, to come out with no knowledge of the situation and all but indict Rashad Johnson's parents and Jeremy Elder's parents for neglect is reprehensible. It's unfair. It speaks from ignorance. It's thoroughly embarrassing.
I think it comes down to a bizarre form of hero worship that dates back to primitive man. Some people, and I find this particularly true or especially prevalent among Bama fans for some reason, want their athletes to be not only good athletes, but also paragons of virtue. They want their athletes to be modeled after Thor, Superman, or Siegfried. They want them to be champions on the field, saving stranded kittens off the field, helping old ladies cross the street, and fighting for truth, justice, and the American Way.
If they fail to live up to that ideal, they must pay. There must be physical pain. There must be penance. They must pay until it hurts not only themselves, but the team and the fans. They want SUSPENSIONS! If these players don't know what a privilege it is to dress up in the crimson jerseys, and aren't willing to live a monkish lifestyle in the process, then they must be punished for their failure to be like Siegfried.
Granted, I don't want all of the best athletes on the team to be like Achilles skulking in his tent (READ A BOOK!), but I also expect the athletes to be human.
By all accounts, Rashad Johnson is a fine human being who worked his way up from walk-on to All-SEC while never getting into any trouble before he allegedly shoved a bar bouncer on the Strip. Heck, if the worst thing a college athlete ever does is shove a bouncer once in his life, I consider him a success story. If there are three or four of those kinds of incidents over the course of a career, that's another story, but once? For a 5th year senior? Big deal.
Some callers want the Strip to be declared off limits for the players. I think this is crazy talk too. The Strip, for those of you outside of the area, The Strip is the prime nightlife within Tuscaloosa. This is not like LSU, where there are a number of areas around Baton Rouge where students hang out. Here in Tuscaloosa, most of the bars and clubs are either on University Boulevard right off of campus or are downtown within a few blocks of University. All of it is within walking distance of each other.
If the Strip and Downtown are off limits, you're basically telling players they can't go out and have fun. Doing that would mean that players could only go to house parties (which are probably even more troublesome) or must drive to Birmingham (also problematic). I don't think you can tell college students, particularly athletes, that they can't go out on the town to blow off steam. It's inconceivable to me.
I think people need to relax when it comes to team discipline. Yes, the coach has to do something about major incidents like melees, academic problems, etc., but sometimes a coach is probably best served by realizing that some things are just no big deal. Let the courts punish Rashad Johnson for shoving a bouncer, if he did it. It'll cost him some money and some embarrassment and some time at the courthouse. That sounds like enough to me. If it isn't, let him run some stadium steps. Above all, stop with the calls and the "back in my day" speeches. I'm tired of hearing them.
I can't begin to tell you how many call-ins have talked about "kids these days" and how discipline in the home is suffering and kids don't have any fear of authority anymore. There may be some truth to it, but the implication here is that Rashad Johnson's parents are to blame. Jeremy Elder's parents are to blame.
Believe me, as an attorney who represents accused juvenile delinquents, I have my own attitudes and perspectives on certain parents. However, to come out with no knowledge of the situation and all but indict Rashad Johnson's parents and Jeremy Elder's parents for neglect is reprehensible. It's unfair. It speaks from ignorance. It's thoroughly embarrassing.
I think it comes down to a bizarre form of hero worship that dates back to primitive man. Some people, and I find this particularly true or especially prevalent among Bama fans for some reason, want their athletes to be not only good athletes, but also paragons of virtue. They want their athletes to be modeled after Thor, Superman, or Siegfried. They want them to be champions on the field, saving stranded kittens off the field, helping old ladies cross the street, and fighting for truth, justice, and the American Way.
If they fail to live up to that ideal, they must pay. There must be physical pain. There must be penance. They must pay until it hurts not only themselves, but the team and the fans. They want SUSPENSIONS! If these players don't know what a privilege it is to dress up in the crimson jerseys, and aren't willing to live a monkish lifestyle in the process, then they must be punished for their failure to be like Siegfried.
Granted, I don't want all of the best athletes on the team to be like Achilles skulking in his tent (READ A BOOK!), but I also expect the athletes to be human.
By all accounts, Rashad Johnson is a fine human being who worked his way up from walk-on to All-SEC while never getting into any trouble before he allegedly shoved a bar bouncer on the Strip. Heck, if the worst thing a college athlete ever does is shove a bouncer once in his life, I consider him a success story. If there are three or four of those kinds of incidents over the course of a career, that's another story, but once? For a 5th year senior? Big deal.
Some callers want the Strip to be declared off limits for the players. I think this is crazy talk too. The Strip, for those of you outside of the area, The Strip is the prime nightlife within Tuscaloosa. This is not like LSU, where there are a number of areas around Baton Rouge where students hang out. Here in Tuscaloosa, most of the bars and clubs are either on University Boulevard right off of campus or are downtown within a few blocks of University. All of it is within walking distance of each other.
If the Strip and Downtown are off limits, you're basically telling players they can't go out and have fun. Doing that would mean that players could only go to house parties (which are probably even more troublesome) or must drive to Birmingham (also problematic). I don't think you can tell college students, particularly athletes, that they can't go out on the town to blow off steam. It's inconceivable to me.
I think people need to relax when it comes to team discipline. Yes, the coach has to do something about major incidents like melees, academic problems, etc., but sometimes a coach is probably best served by realizing that some things are just no big deal. Let the courts punish Rashad Johnson for shoving a bouncer, if he did it. It'll cost him some money and some embarrassment and some time at the courthouse. That sounds like enough to me. If it isn't, let him run some stadium steps. Above all, stop with the calls and the "back in my day" speeches. I'm tired of hearing them.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Jeremy Elder
Of course, LSU is not the only school with certain problems arising this week. Freshman defensive lineman Jeremy Elder, who redshirted last season, was arrested for two counts of Robbery in the 1st Degree this weekend.
I have my own perspective on this, and it's colored by two things. First, I come at it from a college football angle. Second, I can't ignore the fact that I am a criminal defense attorney by practice.
I spent a few minutes trying to think of what the worst thing a college football player can do would be. My conclusion was that it was a futile exercise because there are any number of things a college football player could do that would be instantly fatal to his career at a major program like Bama. A nonexhaustive list would include gambling on games, any serious violent crime, any crime likely to include substantial jail time, and distribution or manufacturing of controlled substances. And these are just the things off the top of my head.
In that sense, Nick Saban has a very easy decision. If one of your players is going around campus pointing a gun at people and asking for money, that player has to go. There's really no wiggle room. The fact that Jeremy Elder was only a reserve player makes this a non-particularly-painful decision, either. Suspending him indefinitely is the right thing to do, and if the allegations prove true, I'm sure he will be let go.
That's the college football observer in me talking. There's also the criminal defense attorney that has his own perspective.
If there's one thing you come to understand as a criminal defense attorney, it is this: The fact that a person has done a horrible thing does not necessarily make him a horrible person.
Robbery in the 1st Degree is a very serious crime. In popular parlance, it is "armed robbery". It's an A-felony, not far removed from murder as far as range of punishments go. In general, if you have a charge like this, if the person is not exonerated, you can probably expect the ultimate sentence to include multiple years in prison.
Elder may not be facing that. First, I imagine that because he is so young, this is likely his first adult offense, and may be his first offense period. His attorney will probably seek to get him "youthful offender" status, and the court will order an investigation.* Youthful offender status does several things to a criminal case. First, it seals the record, much like in juvenile court. Second, it reduces the available sentences. Someone granted youthful offender status can only be given a maximum of 3 years in prison, and most get no prison time and instead get probation.
In my experience, if he does not have a substantial history of criminal behavior, he will likely be granted that status, and it may keep him out of prison. This is particularly likely if the gun involved really was a pellet gun. The court would be a little more likely to cut him a break if he did not shove an actual, death-inducing firearm in someone's face.
I don't think any of that changes the football aspect of this case. If he did it, he has probably stepped on the Alabama practice field for the last time. He'd be allowed to otherwise go on with his life, however.
*I may be wrong about this in the sense that I have never tried to get someone youthful offender status for an A felony. It's just never come up in my practice. Without looking up the rules, I'm not sure you can even get it if you are accused of an A-felony. However, if it really was a pellet gun, it may not be an A-felony anymore.
I have my own perspective on this, and it's colored by two things. First, I come at it from a college football angle. Second, I can't ignore the fact that I am a criminal defense attorney by practice.
I spent a few minutes trying to think of what the worst thing a college football player can do would be. My conclusion was that it was a futile exercise because there are any number of things a college football player could do that would be instantly fatal to his career at a major program like Bama. A nonexhaustive list would include gambling on games, any serious violent crime, any crime likely to include substantial jail time, and distribution or manufacturing of controlled substances. And these are just the things off the top of my head.
In that sense, Nick Saban has a very easy decision. If one of your players is going around campus pointing a gun at people and asking for money, that player has to go. There's really no wiggle room. The fact that Jeremy Elder was only a reserve player makes this a non-particularly-painful decision, either. Suspending him indefinitely is the right thing to do, and if the allegations prove true, I'm sure he will be let go.
That's the college football observer in me talking. There's also the criminal defense attorney that has his own perspective.
If there's one thing you come to understand as a criminal defense attorney, it is this: The fact that a person has done a horrible thing does not necessarily make him a horrible person.
Robbery in the 1st Degree is a very serious crime. In popular parlance, it is "armed robbery". It's an A-felony, not far removed from murder as far as range of punishments go. In general, if you have a charge like this, if the person is not exonerated, you can probably expect the ultimate sentence to include multiple years in prison.
Elder may not be facing that. First, I imagine that because he is so young, this is likely his first adult offense, and may be his first offense period. His attorney will probably seek to get him "youthful offender" status, and the court will order an investigation.* Youthful offender status does several things to a criminal case. First, it seals the record, much like in juvenile court. Second, it reduces the available sentences. Someone granted youthful offender status can only be given a maximum of 3 years in prison, and most get no prison time and instead get probation.
In my experience, if he does not have a substantial history of criminal behavior, he will likely be granted that status, and it may keep him out of prison. This is particularly likely if the gun involved really was a pellet gun. The court would be a little more likely to cut him a break if he did not shove an actual, death-inducing firearm in someone's face.
I don't think any of that changes the football aspect of this case. If he did it, he has probably stepped on the Alabama practice field for the last time. He'd be allowed to otherwise go on with his life, however.
*I may be wrong about this in the sense that I have never tried to get someone youthful offender status for an A felony. It's just never come up in my practice. Without looking up the rules, I'm not sure you can even get it if you are accused of an A-felony. However, if it really was a pellet gun, it may not be an A-felony anymore.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Bama is looking for a new co-OC
If you follow Bama football at all, you know that they now need a new offensive coordinator after their QB coach and co-offensive coordinator, Major Applewhite, has decided to leave the program to take the running backs coach position at the University of Texas.
Honestly, I thought his hiring was questionable from the beginning, and I don't think he did anything to help his wunderkind reputation while in Tuscaloosa.
I think the hiring of Major Applewhite to be an OC was a close cousin of the hiring of Mike Shula to be head coach. I thought Shula was hired for 3 reasons: (1) his name was Shula, (2) he was a former successful quarterback at the school, and (3) he had great hair. Other than that, I didn't see any real qualifications he may have had for the job, having never coached in college nor ever being a head coach at any level.
Applewhite at least had been a college coach, and was even successful as an offensive coordinator, at Rice University. But mainly, I thought he was hired because (1) he was named for Bama hero Major Ogilvie, (2) he had been a really good quarterback, though at Texas rather than Bama, and (3) he has boyish good looks. I thought these three qualities simply meant he had risen too far too fast, and well beyond his abilities.
In a profession where most 28 year olds are still grad assistants somewhere, Major Applewhite had quickly risen to coordinator level, which is usually reserved for 40-somethings who have been around for a while. What's more, Applewhite was a coordinator at the highest level of college football at a traditional SEC power. This, in only his 3rd year as an assistant coach, and he was already getting talked up for open head coaching positions at smaller schools.
I thought it was a stunt-hire then and I still think it was a stunt hire. What's more, I don't think his playcalling was particularly good. I can't and won't go into an exhaustive study, but I will go into the one play I think ultimately defined the season: the interception returned for a touchdown at the end of the first half of the Mississippi State game. Here's the play:
Allow me to recap the scene. It is 3rd and goal from the 1 yard line. Bama has no timeouts. There are less than 20 seconds to play in the half. As a result, everyone in the stadium knows that Bama needs to pass, to avoid risking the clock running out without them being able to get a field goal try. This play was poorly called, and its poorness directly led to its failure.
If you watch the play, it calls for John Parker Wilson to fake a handoff to the running back, then bootleg to the right side, looking for a tight end. It calls for him to turn his back to the defensive end on that side of the center before running in that direction.
MSU defensive end Titus Brown didn't respect the run and instead went right to where the QB would be bootlegging. It was exactly the right move for Brown, who had no reason to respedt the run. By the time Wilson completed the fake and turned his body back towards the line of scrimmage, Brown was already on him. He had no chance to get anything on a pass, and he couldn't take a sack or the clock would expire. So, he just threw it. It was intercepted by the cornerback. Bama had 4 tight ends and 1 running back on the field, which means there was only one player wearing crimson who had any chance of catching a speedy corner, and he was hung up on the line of scrimmage.
It was simply an unnecessarily risky play, and it was poorly chosen. There was no reason to fake a run, because there was no reason to respect it. There was no reason to have 4 tight ends on the field because no one thought Bama was running the ball. Those play action rollout passes to the tight end are often very successful plays, but only when the other team has to respect the run. Due to the circumstances with the timeouts and the game clock, there was no reason MSU had to do that.
The proper play call here would have been to have 4 or 5 wideouts in the game, with maybe a running back kept in to help with protection. Start the play in the shotgun and let your receivers run routes. If no one breaks open or if the pass rush breaks free, the QB should then throw the ball through the uprights and the team should bring out the field goal unit. If the worst happens, and the ball is intercepted, at least you have a bunch of receivers on the field who have a chance of catching the defensive player who has the ball.
Instead, they ran a play that did not have any receivers on the field, and that called for the quarterback to turn his back on the most dangerous rusher while wasting time faking a handoff to the running back.
And this play call came out of a timeout where they had plenty of time to think about it.
I think this was emblematic of the problems having a playcaller who was too inexperienced to really be doing this at the level he was at. Bama will ultimately be better off with him moving on. But on the other hand, what's he doing coaching out of position? His background is with quarterbacks, not with running backs.
Honestly, I thought his hiring was questionable from the beginning, and I don't think he did anything to help his wunderkind reputation while in Tuscaloosa.
I think the hiring of Major Applewhite to be an OC was a close cousin of the hiring of Mike Shula to be head coach. I thought Shula was hired for 3 reasons: (1) his name was Shula, (2) he was a former successful quarterback at the school, and (3) he had great hair. Other than that, I didn't see any real qualifications he may have had for the job, having never coached in college nor ever being a head coach at any level.
Applewhite at least had been a college coach, and was even successful as an offensive coordinator, at Rice University. But mainly, I thought he was hired because (1) he was named for Bama hero Major Ogilvie, (2) he had been a really good quarterback, though at Texas rather than Bama, and (3) he has boyish good looks. I thought these three qualities simply meant he had risen too far too fast, and well beyond his abilities.
In a profession where most 28 year olds are still grad assistants somewhere, Major Applewhite had quickly risen to coordinator level, which is usually reserved for 40-somethings who have been around for a while. What's more, Applewhite was a coordinator at the highest level of college football at a traditional SEC power. This, in only his 3rd year as an assistant coach, and he was already getting talked up for open head coaching positions at smaller schools.
I thought it was a stunt-hire then and I still think it was a stunt hire. What's more, I don't think his playcalling was particularly good. I can't and won't go into an exhaustive study, but I will go into the one play I think ultimately defined the season: the interception returned for a touchdown at the end of the first half of the Mississippi State game. Here's the play:
Allow me to recap the scene. It is 3rd and goal from the 1 yard line. Bama has no timeouts. There are less than 20 seconds to play in the half. As a result, everyone in the stadium knows that Bama needs to pass, to avoid risking the clock running out without them being able to get a field goal try. This play was poorly called, and its poorness directly led to its failure.
If you watch the play, it calls for John Parker Wilson to fake a handoff to the running back, then bootleg to the right side, looking for a tight end. It calls for him to turn his back to the defensive end on that side of the center before running in that direction.
MSU defensive end Titus Brown didn't respect the run and instead went right to where the QB would be bootlegging. It was exactly the right move for Brown, who had no reason to respedt the run. By the time Wilson completed the fake and turned his body back towards the line of scrimmage, Brown was already on him. He had no chance to get anything on a pass, and he couldn't take a sack or the clock would expire. So, he just threw it. It was intercepted by the cornerback. Bama had 4 tight ends and 1 running back on the field, which means there was only one player wearing crimson who had any chance of catching a speedy corner, and he was hung up on the line of scrimmage.
It was simply an unnecessarily risky play, and it was poorly chosen. There was no reason to fake a run, because there was no reason to respect it. There was no reason to have 4 tight ends on the field because no one thought Bama was running the ball. Those play action rollout passes to the tight end are often very successful plays, but only when the other team has to respect the run. Due to the circumstances with the timeouts and the game clock, there was no reason MSU had to do that.
The proper play call here would have been to have 4 or 5 wideouts in the game, with maybe a running back kept in to help with protection. Start the play in the shotgun and let your receivers run routes. If no one breaks open or if the pass rush breaks free, the QB should then throw the ball through the uprights and the team should bring out the field goal unit. If the worst happens, and the ball is intercepted, at least you have a bunch of receivers on the field who have a chance of catching the defensive player who has the ball.
Instead, they ran a play that did not have any receivers on the field, and that called for the quarterback to turn his back on the most dangerous rusher while wasting time faking a handoff to the running back.
And this play call came out of a timeout where they had plenty of time to think about it.
I think this was emblematic of the problems having a playcaller who was too inexperienced to really be doing this at the level he was at. Bama will ultimately be better off with him moving on. But on the other hand, what's he doing coaching out of position? His background is with quarterbacks, not with running backs.
Monday, December 31, 2007
I-Bowl
It was a nice win for Bama last night, even though it didn't go at all like I expected. I expected one of two things:
I really don't have much else to say about this game, except that it was very interesting that Bama did not play Terry Grant at all. Instead, they relied on Glen Coffee and Roy Upchurch.
I don't yet know how good this team will be next year. They sure lose a lot of their best players, but that's common. Most teams have a lot of seniors who are major contributors, and Bama is no different. The question is how good the young backups to Gilberry, Castille, Hall, Mustin, Saunders, Brown, Carter, Caddell, and the offensive linemen are. Also, it will be important for Bama that Antoine Caldwell return.
Today, while I'm at work, Kentucky will begin playing Florida State. I expect Kentucky to win that game, because I'm not sure FSU has enough players to field a team. Plus, Kentucky's actually pretty good.
Then later tonight, the Peach Bowl, which I absolutely refuse to call the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. It's the Peach Bowl, dammit. It will be Auburn against Clemson, in one of the best bowl matchups not in the BCS, and it's not even on New Year's Day. I think this is a true 50-50 game.
Then, I get the day off to watch a lot of football on Tuesday.
- Bama to blow them out by two touchdowns or more, or
- Bama to lay an egg completely and lose, looking bad in the process.
I really don't have much else to say about this game, except that it was very interesting that Bama did not play Terry Grant at all. Instead, they relied on Glen Coffee and Roy Upchurch.
I don't yet know how good this team will be next year. They sure lose a lot of their best players, but that's common. Most teams have a lot of seniors who are major contributors, and Bama is no different. The question is how good the young backups to Gilberry, Castille, Hall, Mustin, Saunders, Brown, Carter, Caddell, and the offensive linemen are. Also, it will be important for Bama that Antoine Caldwell return.
Today, while I'm at work, Kentucky will begin playing Florida State. I expect Kentucky to win that game, because I'm not sure FSU has enough players to field a team. Plus, Kentucky's actually pretty good.
Then later tonight, the Peach Bowl, which I absolutely refuse to call the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. It's the Peach Bowl, dammit. It will be Auburn against Clemson, in one of the best bowl matchups not in the BCS, and it's not even on New Year's Day. I think this is a true 50-50 game.
Then, I get the day off to watch a lot of football on Tuesday.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Basketball and Bowl Games
OK, I didn't mean to slow things down quite this much. Combinations of holidays, the baby not sleeping well, Mrs. GeauxTuscaloosa wanting access to the computer, and a lack of topics to discuss have conspired to keep me from posting like I should.
I try to blame most of my shortcomings on my wife and my child. It makes me feel better about myself.
One of the ways in which I differ from Poseur is that I do not watch all of the minor bowl games. Sure, I glue myself to the couch on New Year's Day and I definitely try to watch every bowl game in which the SEC has a representative. However, my interest in non-SEC bowl games is limited, as is my football stamina. I watch some of the non-SEC games, but I try to save my energy and focus for the SEC games and the really exciting non-SEC matchups.
For example, I watched Texas vs. Arizona State. For the record, I don't know what that replay official was looking at to say that Mac Brown's redheaded stepchild touched that ball. I know SEC officials were on the field, but I don't know if it was an SEC replay official as well. Of course, SEC officials are known to be horrible this year, and that was a terrible call. There was simply no evidence sufficient to overturn the call on the field that the guy did not touch it. I think the guy just wanted to increase the drama of the game by overturning that call.
Not that I mind that Texas and little-Mac were embarrassed. I was rooting for ASU in that game. I just don't like bad officiating, on principle.
I also watched much of the Texas A&M vs. Penn State matchup last night, though I don't really have a whole lot of comment on it.
That's not my main focus. I am, of course, and LSU-guy first and an SEC guy second. I wanted to watch the Mississippi State vs. Central Florida matchup, and I was not disappointed. I got to watch the whole thing because the LSU basketball game was unwatchable by the time the football game started.
Digression: This is only the second time I watched this basketball team play this season. The first was against Villanova. The games were remarkably similar. We looked great in the first half of both games and then looked like a bunch of rookies in the second half. I don't have an explanation for it except that, you know, we are a bunch of rookies. This should be a fun team to watch as the season goes on though. I'm not convinced this isn't a tournament team, especially if they can accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative. If they can do that, they may be one of the best teams in the country, not just in the conference.
Digression #2: Mrs. GeauxTuscaloosa, bless her, is a Kentucky basketball fan, and not a casual one. She's pretty hard core. It could be a long season for her, which could make it a long season for me. So please, for my benefit, root for Kentucky to win games.
Back to Mississippi State. I actually really like watching games like these. It's like watching a pitchers' duel in baseball. You know every play is key. Every mistake is magnified. Every punt is crucial because it may be the best chance for either team to score. Every yard and every first down is meaningful as teams try to get themselves into field goal position for the whole game.
It doesn't hurt that games like this usually move rather quickly. There were a lot of running plays, and not a lot of first downs, meaning the clock ran a lot and the game was over actually BEFORE the broadcast time expired. This is almost unheard-of in bowl season, as they sell more advertising and have longer halftimes.
I like this Mississippi State team. After their opening week trouncing at our hands, a team with lesser character would have folded up the tents on the season and checked out with another 3-9 record. They did not, and despite some rather serious limitations, they turned in a good season by playing good defense and running the ball well. And there's no reason to think they won't be just as good next season.
Tonight, we get another SEC matchup with Bama vs. Colorado. Some bowl games are very important to the teams playing them, and some are not. I'm not criticizing the attitude that bowl games sometimes aren't important. It's just true. For a team like Mississippi State, the bowl game was very important because those kids have never had one before. For Bama, the Independence Bowl is a big disappointment, and I get the feeling they do not think it's important and aren't particularly excited about being there.
Will this impact their play on the field? I don't know. Whether it does or not, I still think a bowl game (even a loss) is always a valuable experience, and you should never turn down the opportunity to go to one. I also do not buy the notion that a loss for Bama here would be devastating, as it would give them a second straight losing season. I think that to Bama fans, this is already a losing season and nothing that happens in Shreveport will change that.
That said, I think Bama is much more talented than Colorado, and if they are focused on the game they should win by multiple touchdowns. Remember, this is a team that had legitimate Sugar Bowl hopes going into November, and despite going 0-for-November, never once looked overmatched against any of their competition all season.
I try to blame most of my shortcomings on my wife and my child. It makes me feel better about myself.
One of the ways in which I differ from Poseur is that I do not watch all of the minor bowl games. Sure, I glue myself to the couch on New Year's Day and I definitely try to watch every bowl game in which the SEC has a representative. However, my interest in non-SEC bowl games is limited, as is my football stamina. I watch some of the non-SEC games, but I try to save my energy and focus for the SEC games and the really exciting non-SEC matchups.
For example, I watched Texas vs. Arizona State. For the record, I don't know what that replay official was looking at to say that Mac Brown's redheaded stepchild touched that ball. I know SEC officials were on the field, but I don't know if it was an SEC replay official as well. Of course, SEC officials are known to be horrible this year, and that was a terrible call. There was simply no evidence sufficient to overturn the call on the field that the guy did not touch it. I think the guy just wanted to increase the drama of the game by overturning that call.
Not that I mind that Texas and little-Mac were embarrassed. I was rooting for ASU in that game. I just don't like bad officiating, on principle.
I also watched much of the Texas A&M vs. Penn State matchup last night, though I don't really have a whole lot of comment on it.
That's not my main focus. I am, of course, and LSU-guy first and an SEC guy second. I wanted to watch the Mississippi State vs. Central Florida matchup, and I was not disappointed. I got to watch the whole thing because the LSU basketball game was unwatchable by the time the football game started.
Digression: This is only the second time I watched this basketball team play this season. The first was against Villanova. The games were remarkably similar. We looked great in the first half of both games and then looked like a bunch of rookies in the second half. I don't have an explanation for it except that, you know, we are a bunch of rookies. This should be a fun team to watch as the season goes on though. I'm not convinced this isn't a tournament team, especially if they can accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative. If they can do that, they may be one of the best teams in the country, not just in the conference.
Digression #2: Mrs. GeauxTuscaloosa, bless her, is a Kentucky basketball fan, and not a casual one. She's pretty hard core. It could be a long season for her, which could make it a long season for me. So please, for my benefit, root for Kentucky to win games.
Back to Mississippi State. I actually really like watching games like these. It's like watching a pitchers' duel in baseball. You know every play is key. Every mistake is magnified. Every punt is crucial because it may be the best chance for either team to score. Every yard and every first down is meaningful as teams try to get themselves into field goal position for the whole game.
It doesn't hurt that games like this usually move rather quickly. There were a lot of running plays, and not a lot of first downs, meaning the clock ran a lot and the game was over actually BEFORE the broadcast time expired. This is almost unheard-of in bowl season, as they sell more advertising and have longer halftimes.
I like this Mississippi State team. After their opening week trouncing at our hands, a team with lesser character would have folded up the tents on the season and checked out with another 3-9 record. They did not, and despite some rather serious limitations, they turned in a good season by playing good defense and running the ball well. And there's no reason to think they won't be just as good next season.
Tonight, we get another SEC matchup with Bama vs. Colorado. Some bowl games are very important to the teams playing them, and some are not. I'm not criticizing the attitude that bowl games sometimes aren't important. It's just true. For a team like Mississippi State, the bowl game was very important because those kids have never had one before. For Bama, the Independence Bowl is a big disappointment, and I get the feeling they do not think it's important and aren't particularly excited about being there.
Will this impact their play on the field? I don't know. Whether it does or not, I still think a bowl game (even a loss) is always a valuable experience, and you should never turn down the opportunity to go to one. I also do not buy the notion that a loss for Bama here would be devastating, as it would give them a second straight losing season. I think that to Bama fans, this is already a losing season and nothing that happens in Shreveport will change that.
That said, I think Bama is much more talented than Colorado, and if they are focused on the game they should win by multiple touchdowns. Remember, this is a team that had legitimate Sugar Bowl hopes going into November, and despite going 0-for-November, never once looked overmatched against any of their competition all season.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
The Recruitment of Robby Green
Robby Green, a 4-star cornerback from John Curtis Christian High School in River Ridge, LA recently gave his verbal commitment to Bama. If you only casually pay attention to recruiting, you will think this is a big deal for LSU, and is very bad news for us. It really is not.In particular, if you had been listening to WJOX yesterday at about 8:00am, you would have heard Matt Scallessi (spelling of last name unknown) of Rivals' Bama network saying, "Every big SEC team was after this kid," and that this was a big recruiting coup for Nick Saban. They weren't, and it wasn't.
I don't want to criticize a young player, because I assure you Robby Green is 500x the football player that I have ever been or will ever be, but he was a borderline major college prospect at best. To understand how this is known, you have to know a little bit about how recruiting works.
College coaches are strictly forbidden from talking about recruits in public or to the media. The purpose of this is to keep recruitment from being conducted through the media and to keep the kids out of the public spotlight as much as is possible.
One of the results of this is that there is a cottage industry of "insiders," usually anonymous people posting under aliases who claim (real or imagined) sources within programs who provide them with valuable and otherwise unavailable information about recruiting. These people are one of the two primary sources of recruiting information, and I won't say they're strictly reliable. Some are legitimate, some are not, and one should always be skeptical of someone claiming inside information who has not been demonstrated to be accurate in the past.
The other primary source of recruiting information is the recruits themselves. They are also not strictly reliable. They provide the recruiting media with information that is often self-serving or misunderstood. They may exaggerate their list of offers, or their 40-time, or their level of interest in particular programs.
The players are rated based on several factors, including a) who is recruiting him, b) his measurables, and c) statistics, film, and/or direct scouting. The problem is that the information on who is recruiting him can be very unreliable, as can the information about the measurables, as both of these often come straight from the player himself, who has incentive to exaggerate.
If you follow it enough, you start to be able to instinctively separate fact from fiction. You start to figure out whose information is really reliable, and how to spot an exaggerating player. You also figure out that the services' rankings are often based on misconceptions about a player.
This brings us to Robby Green. He is listed as a 4-star, with offers from Florida, LSU, and other big programs. He is also listed as 6'0" and 175#. This contributed to his 4-star status. According to multiple reliable inside sources, Green did not have an offer from LSU, and LSU would not have accepted his commitment if he offered it to them. He was, by some accounts, on the backburner, to be given an offer if some other possible commits failed to come through for us. According to other inside sources at Bama, their recruitment of him ran hot and cold, depending on who else they thought was coming available. We also know that USC brought him in for one of their summer camps and promptly pulled his scholarship offer upon seeing him in action.
His measurables were also questioned. People who claimed to have met him in person said he was closer to 5'8" or 5'9" than to 6'0". People who saw him on television said he appeared to be pretty short even on television. For a cornerback, there is a huge difference between 5'8" and 6'0". The prototypical size for a cornerback is between 6'0" and 6'1". A small cornerback will struggle with the big receivers you often find in the SEC, often 6'4" or taller. The shorter arms that come with a shorter frame will make it more difficult to break up passes as well.
In other words, a 5'8" or 5'9" cornerback is at a huge disadvantage in the SEC and had better bring great athleticism, or an ability to return punts, or great ball skills, or SOMETHING to the table. I don't know if Robby Green brings any of that.
I'm certainly not saying Robby Green won't amount to anything. I assure you I do not know that to be true, and neither does anyone else. Recruiting is about upside and probability. There is very little certainty when it comes to recruiting. There are very few, if any players that you can look at and say, "He's going to be great," and be completely confident about it. It's also true that people sometimes go from walk-on to All-American, and every year former 2-star recruits get drafted on the first day of the NFL draft. But the odds are longer for these guys, and the probabilities are low, as is the upside of a small cornerback.
Which brings us to why I think Saban recruited Green. I think it was because he wants, for public relations purposes, to recruit a guy out of Louisiana. He wants to show boosters and future athletes that he has a presence in Louisiana. He had been recruiting a few other Louisiana players, like Tyler Edwards, Chris Tolliver, and Chase Clement, but it is becoming apparent that these guys are long shots to commit to Bama, so he went to his fall-back player, one he knew wasn't getting a lot of love from the home state school.
I wish Robby Green luck at Bama, and word is that he may yet actually get an offer from LSU, if the other cornerbacks on the board fall through. If he does, that's fine with me. Just don't believe the hype you're hearing from Bama Kool-aid vendors and less knowledgeable sources that Bama just reeled in a big fish out of Louisiana. Green is not a big fish. He's a class-filler.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
SEC Preview - Week 13
I apologize for not updating yesterday. I got on the road very early in the morning and I did not have time to update. Once I was finally able to sit down at the computer for a while, it was late afternoon and I just decided to wait until now to update.
It's a tired refrain, but this is another big week here in SEC country. There are a few big out-of-conference games this week, rivalry games, and games where the teams are playing for quite a lot. Let's get down to business.
The Egg Bowl, Mississippi at Mississippi State, 11:30AM Friday. For once, the Egg Bowl may not be the only bowl game for one of these two teams. Mississippi State sits at 6 wins, bowl eligible but not guaranteed a bowl game. A win here will make them very attractive for a lower-tier bowl committee, and they may yet sneak into the Cotton Bowl if they get some breaks along the way. As for the game, MSU is clearly not the team that started the season. They are now primed and ready to play. They proved last week they can pass (if you don't play defense against them), and they proved in previous weeks that they can run the ball, force turnovers, and make big defensive plays. Ole Miss is not a great team by any stretch, but they are better than their 0-7 record. It is simply Ole Miss's misfortune that the rest of the SEC is so strong this year. In previous years, this Ole Miss squad probably would have gotten a couple wins. Ole Miss showed last week that when Brent Schaeffer is playing well, they can be very dangerous.As it is, they are certainly capable of winning this one and ruining MSU's season. With a loss here, MSU may not get its bowl game. It still might, but it's not definite.
Note the start time of this game. It's starting Friday morning. Bama will probably be keeping one eye on the score of this one, because this game may decide their bowl fate.
Arkansas at LSU, 1:30pm Friday, for The Boot. I haven't really previewed this game yet because of distractions and travel. Allow me to rectify that. Let me just say that Arkansas has a TERRIBLE pass defense. Just terrible. MSU, a team that can hardly pass at all, torched them for 421 yards and 4 touchdown passes. Bama had 327 yards passing against them. South Carolina had 364. Hopefully, someone told Miles and Crowton that this team is vulnerable to the pass.
I think this is a game in which it would be a mistake to be so heavily reliant on Jacob Hester. I think Hester's an excellent player, but this Arkansas team is vulnerable to big plays, and we should take advantage by leaning more heavily on our speed backs and our passing game. This is not to suggest shelving Hester, but simply that we should not use him as heavily.
Of course, the big threat with Arkansas is their running game. We all know about Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. They are simply the best one-two combination of running backs in recent SEC memory. McFadden is probably the best running back in the SEC since Bo Jackson. Our defense will have to be focused on stopping those two.
Teams have had a certain amount of success at that this season. While each has over 1000 yards of rushing, and McFadden has more than 1500, McFadden has been held under 100 yards rushing 3 times this season. Jones was held under 100 yards 3 times before he got hurt against Tennessee. The strange thing is that Arkansas is 2-1 in games where McFadden is held to under 100 yards rushing; is 4-3 in games where McFadden gets between 100 and 300 yards rushing; and is 1-0 in games where McFadden goes for over 300. McFadden's individual success does not seem to significantly contribute to wins. I don't know what to make of that, but I'd rather take my chances by stopping McFadden.
Last year, Casey Dick had a terrible game passing and all but gave us the game gift wrapped with a bow. This year, Dick is coming off probably the best game of his career heading into this one. He was 14 of 17 with 4 touchdown passes and no interceptions last week in a win against MSU, but looking at his stats on the season, this appears to be an exception. He has thrown for over 200 only once this season, and has thrown 9 interceptions to 17 touchdown passes. Before the last game, it was 9 interceptions to 13 touchdown passes, a very modest stat line. He is also not a QB who can hurt you with his legs.
Tennessee at Kentucky, 12:30 CBS Saturday. This is the other game of some considerable importance to us. I think we all know by now that this game will decide who LSU plays in the SEC Championship Game. If Tennessee wins, they're in. If Kentucky win, Georgia is in. I'd rather play Tennessee, personally. I think Georgia may well be the best team in the country right now. They remind me a lot of the 2001 LSU team that started very pedestrian, then ended the season as one of the best around. We don't want to go against that team if it can be avoided.
Kentucky is actually favored in this game, and I can see why. They have a great QB and good running backs and receivers. Tennessee has been very vulnerable on defense and does not get a lot of pressure on the QB. Plus, this game is in Kentucky, and Kentucky wants to end its LONG losing streak against Tennessee. This is of course the best Kentucky team in decades and if they're going to do it now is the time.
Tennessee, of course, can also do some things. Erik Ainge is quietly having an excellent season. In an ordinary season, one in which the SEC doesn't have two Heisman candidate quarterbacks, this kind of season would be good enough for 1st team All-SEC. Tennessee also has good running backs. Their defense, while not great, has been known to make big plays converting interceptions to touchdowns. I think this is a very even matchup.
Wake Forest at Vandy, 1:00pm Saturday, no television. Vandy tries to achieve bowl eligibility, but even if they make it, I think a bowl game is a long shot. Maybe they can sneak into a bowl that can't get a team from its conference tie-in. I don't know how all that works. I also don't know much about Wake Forest.
Georgia at Georgia Tech, 2:30pm Saturday ABC. Once again, this in-state rivalry pits two teams of vastly different quality. This series isn't LSU-Tulane yet, but it appears to be getting there. Georgia Tech is not a bad team though. They sit at 7-4, a reasonably good team in the ACC. They're just not Georgia. Georgia is one of the hottest teams in the country, and look like they can beat anybody right now. Georgia is not playing for conference positioning, but a win here will probably mean they go to a BCS bowl (if they don't go to the SEC Championship Game). A loss here may push them out of the BCS, and may mean the SEC gets only one BCS bid (but I doubt it).
Florida State at Florida, 4:00pm CBS Saturday. We all know about FSU's inconsistencies this year. We all also know about Florida's young talent. I really don't have much to say about this game other than that. Florida is playing probably for the Cap One Bowl, and wouldn't it be exciting if they got to play against Illinois?
Clemson at South Carolina, 6:00pm ESPN2 Saturday. South Carolina is playing for its bowl life. They were one of the first SEC teams to reach bowl-eligibility, and they remain one of two teams to beat Georgia on the year, but they are reeling. They haven't won a game since October 13. No bowl will want South Carolina at 6-6 if they lose this game. They will be on a 5 game losing streak. They don't travel particularly well. No one will be interested. If they want to go to a bowl game, they HAVE to win this game. It's hard to believe this team was in the top 10 in the country at midseason.
Bama at Auburn, 7:00pm ESPN Saturday. Talent-wise, I think these teams are roughly equal. The question is going to be, "Where is Bama psychologically?" Football is as much a psychological game as it is a physical game. Rumors are that after the UL-Monroe travesty, Bama players were out on the Strip in Tuscaloosa talking smack about each other and blaming the disappointing season on their coaches and teammates. Then, early this week, their coach gave the strangest press conference since Mike Gundy's rant earlier this season. He described the loss to UL-Monroe in almost apocalyptic terms, and according to my wife appeared to be about to challenge a reporter to a fight. He also put the blame squarely on his players, saying there was a "personality" problem on the Bama team. These are not good signs.
What's more, this team is not a lock to get to a bowl game with a loss here. They'll sit at 6-6, and we know that not all bowl-eligible teams will make a bowl game this year. The worst case scenario for Bama is that they lose while South Carolina and MSU win. Even worse would be if Vandy wins, giving the SEC another bowl-eligible teams and 9 teams with 7 or more wins. A 6-win Bama team with a 4 game losing streak is not a particularly attractive bowl team, with the one plus being that the Bama fans usually travel well.
Auburn is almost an afterthought right now, but that just means even more pressure is on them to win this one. You don't want to be the team that lost to the team that lost to ULM the week before. They're also playing for bowl position, and will almost certainly get a New Year's Day bowl if they win here. A loss here could send them to Shreveport.
Both teams are under a lot of pressure in this one. A Bama win takes some of the sting out of the loss to ULM and ends Auburn's 5 year winning streak in this series. It also embarrasses Auburn and sends them to a weak bowl. A Bama loss may end their season, and would definitely make this an unabashed failure of a season, and give them tons of negative momentum going into the offseason.
It's a tired refrain, but this is another big week here in SEC country. There are a few big out-of-conference games this week, rivalry games, and games where the teams are playing for quite a lot. Let's get down to business.
The Egg Bowl, Mississippi at Mississippi State, 11:30AM Friday. For once, the Egg Bowl may not be the only bowl game for one of these two teams. Mississippi State sits at 6 wins, bowl eligible but not guaranteed a bowl game. A win here will make them very attractive for a lower-tier bowl committee, and they may yet sneak into the Cotton Bowl if they get some breaks along the way. As for the game, MSU is clearly not the team that started the season. They are now primed and ready to play. They proved last week they can pass (if you don't play defense against them), and they proved in previous weeks that they can run the ball, force turnovers, and make big defensive plays. Ole Miss is not a great team by any stretch, but they are better than their 0-7 record. It is simply Ole Miss's misfortune that the rest of the SEC is so strong this year. In previous years, this Ole Miss squad probably would have gotten a couple wins. Ole Miss showed last week that when Brent Schaeffer is playing well, they can be very dangerous.As it is, they are certainly capable of winning this one and ruining MSU's season. With a loss here, MSU may not get its bowl game. It still might, but it's not definite.
Note the start time of this game. It's starting Friday morning. Bama will probably be keeping one eye on the score of this one, because this game may decide their bowl fate.
Arkansas at LSU, 1:30pm Friday, for The Boot. I haven't really previewed this game yet because of distractions and travel. Allow me to rectify that. Let me just say that Arkansas has a TERRIBLE pass defense. Just terrible. MSU, a team that can hardly pass at all, torched them for 421 yards and 4 touchdown passes. Bama had 327 yards passing against them. South Carolina had 364. Hopefully, someone told Miles and Crowton that this team is vulnerable to the pass.
I think this is a game in which it would be a mistake to be so heavily reliant on Jacob Hester. I think Hester's an excellent player, but this Arkansas team is vulnerable to big plays, and we should take advantage by leaning more heavily on our speed backs and our passing game. This is not to suggest shelving Hester, but simply that we should not use him as heavily.
Of course, the big threat with Arkansas is their running game. We all know about Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. They are simply the best one-two combination of running backs in recent SEC memory. McFadden is probably the best running back in the SEC since Bo Jackson. Our defense will have to be focused on stopping those two.
Teams have had a certain amount of success at that this season. While each has over 1000 yards of rushing, and McFadden has more than 1500, McFadden has been held under 100 yards rushing 3 times this season. Jones was held under 100 yards 3 times before he got hurt against Tennessee. The strange thing is that Arkansas is 2-1 in games where McFadden is held to under 100 yards rushing; is 4-3 in games where McFadden gets between 100 and 300 yards rushing; and is 1-0 in games where McFadden goes for over 300. McFadden's individual success does not seem to significantly contribute to wins. I don't know what to make of that, but I'd rather take my chances by stopping McFadden.
Last year, Casey Dick had a terrible game passing and all but gave us the game gift wrapped with a bow. This year, Dick is coming off probably the best game of his career heading into this one. He was 14 of 17 with 4 touchdown passes and no interceptions last week in a win against MSU, but looking at his stats on the season, this appears to be an exception. He has thrown for over 200 only once this season, and has thrown 9 interceptions to 17 touchdown passes. Before the last game, it was 9 interceptions to 13 touchdown passes, a very modest stat line. He is also not a QB who can hurt you with his legs.
Tennessee at Kentucky, 12:30 CBS Saturday. This is the other game of some considerable importance to us. I think we all know by now that this game will decide who LSU plays in the SEC Championship Game. If Tennessee wins, they're in. If Kentucky win, Georgia is in. I'd rather play Tennessee, personally. I think Georgia may well be the best team in the country right now. They remind me a lot of the 2001 LSU team that started very pedestrian, then ended the season as one of the best around. We don't want to go against that team if it can be avoided.
Kentucky is actually favored in this game, and I can see why. They have a great QB and good running backs and receivers. Tennessee has been very vulnerable on defense and does not get a lot of pressure on the QB. Plus, this game is in Kentucky, and Kentucky wants to end its LONG losing streak against Tennessee. This is of course the best Kentucky team in decades and if they're going to do it now is the time.
Tennessee, of course, can also do some things. Erik Ainge is quietly having an excellent season. In an ordinary season, one in which the SEC doesn't have two Heisman candidate quarterbacks, this kind of season would be good enough for 1st team All-SEC. Tennessee also has good running backs. Their defense, while not great, has been known to make big plays converting interceptions to touchdowns. I think this is a very even matchup.
Wake Forest at Vandy, 1:00pm Saturday, no television. Vandy tries to achieve bowl eligibility, but even if they make it, I think a bowl game is a long shot. Maybe they can sneak into a bowl that can't get a team from its conference tie-in. I don't know how all that works. I also don't know much about Wake Forest.
Georgia at Georgia Tech, 2:30pm Saturday ABC. Once again, this in-state rivalry pits two teams of vastly different quality. This series isn't LSU-Tulane yet, but it appears to be getting there. Georgia Tech is not a bad team though. They sit at 7-4, a reasonably good team in the ACC. They're just not Georgia. Georgia is one of the hottest teams in the country, and look like they can beat anybody right now. Georgia is not playing for conference positioning, but a win here will probably mean they go to a BCS bowl (if they don't go to the SEC Championship Game). A loss here may push them out of the BCS, and may mean the SEC gets only one BCS bid (but I doubt it).
Florida State at Florida, 4:00pm CBS Saturday. We all know about FSU's inconsistencies this year. We all also know about Florida's young talent. I really don't have much to say about this game other than that. Florida is playing probably for the Cap One Bowl, and wouldn't it be exciting if they got to play against Illinois?
Clemson at South Carolina, 6:00pm ESPN2 Saturday. South Carolina is playing for its bowl life. They were one of the first SEC teams to reach bowl-eligibility, and they remain one of two teams to beat Georgia on the year, but they are reeling. They haven't won a game since October 13. No bowl will want South Carolina at 6-6 if they lose this game. They will be on a 5 game losing streak. They don't travel particularly well. No one will be interested. If they want to go to a bowl game, they HAVE to win this game. It's hard to believe this team was in the top 10 in the country at midseason.
Bama at Auburn, 7:00pm ESPN Saturday. Talent-wise, I think these teams are roughly equal. The question is going to be, "Where is Bama psychologically?" Football is as much a psychological game as it is a physical game. Rumors are that after the UL-Monroe travesty, Bama players were out on the Strip in Tuscaloosa talking smack about each other and blaming the disappointing season on their coaches and teammates. Then, early this week, their coach gave the strangest press conference since Mike Gundy's rant earlier this season. He described the loss to UL-Monroe in almost apocalyptic terms, and according to my wife appeared to be about to challenge a reporter to a fight. He also put the blame squarely on his players, saying there was a "personality" problem on the Bama team. These are not good signs.
What's more, this team is not a lock to get to a bowl game with a loss here. They'll sit at 6-6, and we know that not all bowl-eligible teams will make a bowl game this year. The worst case scenario for Bama is that they lose while South Carolina and MSU win. Even worse would be if Vandy wins, giving the SEC another bowl-eligible teams and 9 teams with 7 or more wins. A 6-win Bama team with a 4 game losing streak is not a particularly attractive bowl team, with the one plus being that the Bama fans usually travel well.
Auburn is almost an afterthought right now, but that just means even more pressure is on them to win this one. You don't want to be the team that lost to the team that lost to ULM the week before. They're also playing for bowl position, and will almost certainly get a New Year's Day bowl if they win here. A loss here could send them to Shreveport.
Both teams are under a lot of pressure in this one. A Bama win takes some of the sting out of the loss to ULM and ends Auburn's 5 year winning streak in this series. It also embarrasses Auburn and sends them to a weak bowl. A Bama loss may end their season, and would definitely make this an unabashed failure of a season, and give them tons of negative momentum going into the offseason.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Another Post About the Bama Game
Yesterday's post about the Bama game was, shall we say, perfunctory. I was exhausted from the work of the previous day and insufficient sleep. I think all of my observations about the game can be distilled into two points:
One player I was very impressed with in this game was Darry Beckwith. He's been an unsung hero all year, but on Saturday I thought he was our 2nd best defensive player (I won't say who our best was, but he is VERY VERY big). I saw a post on Tigerdroppings calling him out and saying he was "exposed", and I wondered if this guy watched the same game I watched. I saw Beckwith all over the field making tackles. I also saw him playing despite a shoulder injury and a leg injury of some kind. He was much more visible than, say, Ali Highsmith, and if anyone was exposed or abused it was Danny McCray.
Speaking of McCray, I wouldn't be surprised to see young Mr. Jones take over his spot at nickel back. Several of Bama's big plays came when they caught McCray in single coverage against a receiver.
I don't really have much else to say about the action on the field. After the game, Nick Saban was very gracious on the field. He congratulated Matt Flynn and said, "I hope y'all do it," and he congratulated Les Miles. After this game, as far as I am concerned, the special animosity towards Saban and Bama is greatly diminished. I'm still looking forward to getting them in Tiger Stadium next year though. That will be fun.
Next we get La Tech. The Bulldogs are 4-5 on the season, with some close losses against decent teams (Hawaii, Boise State). They were blown out by Cal and by Ole Miss, and their best win was against New Mexico State. Statistically, nothing really stands out about them. They appear to be a somewhat balanced team offensively, with 1725 yards passing and 1589 yards rushing. They've played low-scoring games (losing 17-6 to Fresno State) and high scoring games (losing 45-44 to Hawaii and 45-31 to Boise). Sure, we're a better team, but this team doesn't look awful from where I'm sitting.
I want to see fundamental football. Avoid penalties and turnovers and put the game away early.
- We make entirely too many mistakes; and
- You only have so much right to complain about winning a game on the road in the SEC.
Demetrius Byrd in man coverage = good things for LSU.I think this is exactly right. Byrd, to me, has been the biggest positive surprise of the midseason. I really didn't expect a late-arriving JUCO guy to be able to contribute at receiver on this team. After his underwhelming first couple of games (he had 4 catches total in his first 4 games), I figured he'd top out at a little-used supporting role player. Hoo boy was that wrong? He's easily our best wide receiver whose first name is not an adjective.
Tyson Jackson gets a lot of penalties for late hits, but he gets more batted-down passes. He's got great vision and knack for that.He's gotten two penalties for late hits that I can remember, but both were huge. One probably cost us the Kentucky game, and the second one almost cost us the Bama game. The Kentucky one was very clear. He hit the QB in the head twice on that play, and a call was certain. I didn't quite buy this one. Yeah, Wilson had thrown the ball. Yes, Jackson hit him hard. But I didn't think it was particularly late, or not late enough to draw a call. That penalty was pretty questionable and it ended up being HUGE.
Chad Jones made a few timely big plays. The coaches made a timely decision to put Doucet in to field punts after Jones bobbled one.This kid looks incredible. He will be an absolute stud next year and will be the best safety in the country as a junior. That said, I actually kind of like him as a punt returner. I know he bobbled one, but he's been the only punt returner to show any kind of gumption back there. I don't know why we can't seem to get any kind of explosion in the return game. With all the athletes we have, why don't we have one who can occasionally bust a return? Even Holliday isn't exactly tearing it up when he gets the ball on kickoffs, and Keiland has done almost nothing on kick returns.
Lafell deserved to be demoted, but he responded well when we finally got him the ball on those underneath routes late in the game. That should help his confidence.According to my brother, Lafell is the one who blew the tackle on the Arenas punt return. I haven't looked at it on replay yet, but he said we had it covered, with a wall of players there, but he ran right to Lafell who whiffed the tackle and then he was gone. That said, Lafell is going to be a heck of a player. He has size and speed and route-running ability. He just needs to get the drops out of his head. He reminds me some of Doucet/Bowe in 2005 when they dropped so many balls. I don't think he's got the talent of a Bowe or Doucet, but he's very solid, perhaps one notch below those guys. If he gets back into the game mentally, he'll have a future in the NFL.
One player I was very impressed with in this game was Darry Beckwith. He's been an unsung hero all year, but on Saturday I thought he was our 2nd best defensive player (I won't say who our best was, but he is VERY VERY big). I saw a post on Tigerdroppings calling him out and saying he was "exposed", and I wondered if this guy watched the same game I watched. I saw Beckwith all over the field making tackles. I also saw him playing despite a shoulder injury and a leg injury of some kind. He was much more visible than, say, Ali Highsmith, and if anyone was exposed or abused it was Danny McCray.
Speaking of McCray, I wouldn't be surprised to see young Mr. Jones take over his spot at nickel back. Several of Bama's big plays came when they caught McCray in single coverage against a receiver.
I don't really have much else to say about the action on the field. After the game, Nick Saban was very gracious on the field. He congratulated Matt Flynn and said, "I hope y'all do it," and he congratulated Les Miles. After this game, as far as I am concerned, the special animosity towards Saban and Bama is greatly diminished. I'm still looking forward to getting them in Tiger Stadium next year though. That will be fun.
Next we get La Tech. The Bulldogs are 4-5 on the season, with some close losses against decent teams (Hawaii, Boise State). They were blown out by Cal and by Ole Miss, and their best win was against New Mexico State. Statistically, nothing really stands out about them. They appear to be a somewhat balanced team offensively, with 1725 yards passing and 1589 yards rushing. They've played low-scoring games (losing 17-6 to Fresno State) and high scoring games (losing 45-44 to Hawaii and 45-31 to Boise). Sure, we're a better team, but this team doesn't look awful from where I'm sitting.
I want to see fundamental football. Avoid penalties and turnovers and put the game away early.
Sunday, November 4, 2007
Bama: The Day After
We just can't stand prosperity. With LSU up 17-3 and looking to get the ball back in good field position to put the game away, we made the first of many big mistakes on the game, and that started the ball rolling downhill on us, allowing Bama to take a lead and eventually go ahead in the game by 10 points before we started clawing back to eventually win.
This team cannot stand prosperity, but they are also a gutty team that simply does not quit. This is a team that can't get out of its own way, but simply refuses to let someone else beat them. I've never seen a team like it, and I don't think I can stand to see a team like this again. It's too stressful to watch them play tight, mistake-filled, heroic games. I'm glad we win these games more than we lose them, but we were really on the verge of blowing Bama out before letting them back in it. I'd like to get a nice blowout win in the conference at some point again.
This was a game in which, despite the 34 points on the scoreboard for Bama, our defense really dominated. Bama scored a special teams touchdown and scored 10 points on short fields they got by turnover. They scored another touchdown on a big play where we should have been able to get off the field (I think it was a bad call to flag Tyson Jackson for roughing the passer). Bama only had one really long sustained drive the entire game, and that's to be expected in every game. The defense was great.
The offense struggled, obviously, with three turnovers and another two that were ALMOST turned over. Several times, including late in the first half, it looked like we were in good shape, only to end up behind at halftime, and even further behind late in the 3rd quarter.
As the game was progressing, I didn't notice that Demetrius Byrd ended up with 144 yards receiving. He has really emerged as a heck of a player for us, even though one of Flynn's interceptions was at least partly his fault. He's pretty clearly our #2 receiver right now. He's a finalist for the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week (though if any of you have looked at the box score for the Ark-S.Car. game, you know who's getting it this week).
I don't want to get too caught up in criticism. Fact is, we went on the road in the SEC to a very hostile environment and we came away with a win. In a year like this, any SEC game you win should be satisfying. Heck, any SEC win should be satisfying, even if it's not on the road. This is a season in which Ole Miss took Florida AND Alabama to the wire, and they haven't actually won a conference game. I will say this, however. Any game in which we avoid penalties and turnovers, we will win by at least two touchdowns. Any game we play like last night, we will keep the opponent in the game no matter who they are.
We get Louisiana Tech next, in a game that only matters for the national rankings. I will appreciate the relief. After that, we get Ole Miss, who is certainly capable of beating us if we play mistake-ridden football. If we beat Ole Miss, we play for the conference championship.
This team cannot stand prosperity, but they are also a gutty team that simply does not quit. This is a team that can't get out of its own way, but simply refuses to let someone else beat them. I've never seen a team like it, and I don't think I can stand to see a team like this again. It's too stressful to watch them play tight, mistake-filled, heroic games. I'm glad we win these games more than we lose them, but we were really on the verge of blowing Bama out before letting them back in it. I'd like to get a nice blowout win in the conference at some point again.
This was a game in which, despite the 34 points on the scoreboard for Bama, our defense really dominated. Bama scored a special teams touchdown and scored 10 points on short fields they got by turnover. They scored another touchdown on a big play where we should have been able to get off the field (I think it was a bad call to flag Tyson Jackson for roughing the passer). Bama only had one really long sustained drive the entire game, and that's to be expected in every game. The defense was great.
The offense struggled, obviously, with three turnovers and another two that were ALMOST turned over. Several times, including late in the first half, it looked like we were in good shape, only to end up behind at halftime, and even further behind late in the 3rd quarter.
As the game was progressing, I didn't notice that Demetrius Byrd ended up with 144 yards receiving. He has really emerged as a heck of a player for us, even though one of Flynn's interceptions was at least partly his fault. He's pretty clearly our #2 receiver right now. He's a finalist for the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week (though if any of you have looked at the box score for the Ark-S.Car. game, you know who's getting it this week).
I don't want to get too caught up in criticism. Fact is, we went on the road in the SEC to a very hostile environment and we came away with a win. In a year like this, any SEC game you win should be satisfying. Heck, any SEC win should be satisfying, even if it's not on the road. This is a season in which Ole Miss took Florida AND Alabama to the wire, and they haven't actually won a conference game. I will say this, however. Any game in which we avoid penalties and turnovers, we will win by at least two touchdowns. Any game we play like last night, we will keep the opponent in the game no matter who they are.
We get Louisiana Tech next, in a game that only matters for the national rankings. I will appreciate the relief. After that, we get Ole Miss, who is certainly capable of beating us if we play mistake-ridden football. If we beat Ole Miss, we play for the conference championship.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Game Day: Bama
The game that has been 10 months in the making is finally here, or will be in a few hours. I for one am very excited. Of course, it is even more exciting to me because I live here, in Tuscaloosa, among Bama fans, with a Bama-rooting wife, and with a baby over whom we are struggling for football supremacy.
That baby, by the way, has been incredibly active this morning. I think she senses something in the air and wants to drive her father crazy over it. Now that I've started typing, she has calmed down a little. Uhh.. spoke too soon.
What are my plans for today?
8:00-11:30: Cook gumbo; go to Bruno's and buy a rack of ribs. Over the course of the day, we'll have people coming over for a Louisiana-Alabama fusion of bar-b-que ribs and chicken & sausage gumbo.
11:30-3:00: Vandy at Florida, Lincoln Financial. I haven't seen Vandy play in a while, and I'm looking forward to seeing them again. I'm also looking forward to seeing Florida possibly lose again, though I know it's probably a long-shot. Florida's going to be great next year, but I sure would like to see them end the season at 7-5 or something like that. If Tebow is 100%, forget it. If he's not, the key will be how Vandy can match up with Florida's athletic receivers.
3:00-4:00: Pace around the house a lot. Maybe yell at the dog a little.
4:00-8:00: Need it even be said? Of course, I'll be watching the festivities on television. I've gone over this game enough already, I think, and there's no real reason to talk about the matchup any more. At this point, I just want to plea for sanity. I don't want to see the town become an ugly scene. Whatever happens, Bama fan or LSU fan, please realize it is just football. Get to town, watch the game, and get home without incident. I'll just be staying home, and I'm pretty sure my wife won't try to beat me up.
8:00-11:00 or so: South Carolina at Arkansas, ESPN2. This will be a good come-down from the game. Then tomorrow we get back on with our lives.
That baby, by the way, has been incredibly active this morning. I think she senses something in the air and wants to drive her father crazy over it. Now that I've started typing, she has calmed down a little. Uhh.. spoke too soon.
What are my plans for today?
8:00-11:30: Cook gumbo; go to Bruno's and buy a rack of ribs. Over the course of the day, we'll have people coming over for a Louisiana-Alabama fusion of bar-b-que ribs and chicken & sausage gumbo.
11:30-3:00: Vandy at Florida, Lincoln Financial. I haven't seen Vandy play in a while, and I'm looking forward to seeing them again. I'm also looking forward to seeing Florida possibly lose again, though I know it's probably a long-shot. Florida's going to be great next year, but I sure would like to see them end the season at 7-5 or something like that. If Tebow is 100%, forget it. If he's not, the key will be how Vandy can match up with Florida's athletic receivers.
3:00-4:00: Pace around the house a lot. Maybe yell at the dog a little.
4:00-8:00: Need it even be said? Of course, I'll be watching the festivities on television. I've gone over this game enough already, I think, and there's no real reason to talk about the matchup any more. At this point, I just want to plea for sanity. I don't want to see the town become an ugly scene. Whatever happens, Bama fan or LSU fan, please realize it is just football. Get to town, watch the game, and get home without incident. I'll just be staying home, and I'm pretty sure my wife won't try to beat me up.
8:00-11:00 or so: South Carolina at Arkansas, ESPN2. This will be a good come-down from the game. Then tomorrow we get back on with our lives.
Friday, November 2, 2007
But What About the Game?
Alright, I plead guilty. I've been more caught up in the pageantry of the game and the sideline stories than I've been caught up in the actual football to be played. I'm here this morning to correct that.
Where are the key matchups on the field? What sort of strategy do I expect the teams to employ? Where will they find the success?
For the LSU offense, I expect them to run the ball. Big surprise. But let's look a little past that. We've run a lot of Hester lately, but I expect that the speed guys may have a lot more success in this game. I think that means more of Keiland, more of Holliday, and more of Murphy. We'll start with Hester but I see us moving to the speedier guys as the game progresses.
Our passing game should be much more effective now that we have Early Doucet back, and while I expect us to continue running more than we pass, it is my hope and expectation that we will be more efficient in the passing game. Bama has good corners, but has been somewhat vulnerable when their safeties have been caught in one-on-one situations. We'll run to set up the pass, the same way we have all year. It seems like our passing identity has finally emerged, and we appear to be more of a safe passing team, going to tight ends and into the middle of the field a lot. We've had success going to Richard Dickson and to the deep middle of the field.
On defense, we've had a lot of problems lately with teams going to middle of our zone. They've also had success with power running right at us. Fortunately, Bama doesn't really have a power running game. They excel at the speed running game with Terry Grant, who is a big play scat back. The key will be stopping Grant and putting the passing game into obvious passing situations.
In those obvious passing situations, expect Bama to move their best receiver, DJ Hall, around the formation to try to find and exploit mismatches. Hall is a guy who can exploit a zone and can't really be covered by a safety one-on-one. I wouldn't describe him as a speed guy, but he's big, he runs good routes, and he doesn't drop the ball. If we sit back in a soft zone and give the quarterback time to throw, DJ Hall will pick us apart. However, I think they can be beaten on the line, and we can have a lot of success with opportunistic blitzes.
Of course, games in the SEC are often won on the lines, and I think we have a fairly significant advantage here, especially when we're on defense. The Bama offensive line played its best game last week without two of its starters, but frankly Tennessee's defense is not as good as usual this year, and they were unable to exploit the problems on the Bama offensive line (or the Bama energy and emotion for that matter). If those guys continue to be out, I think we'll be able to exploit their absence a little more.
Our problem here is that we haven't gotten consistent pressure on quarterbacks except when we blitz, and that has definitely hurt us. I don't expect our best pass rusher, Kirston Pittman, to have a lot of success going against Andre Smith, but our other guys should be expected to get to the quarterback. They haven't done it consistently this year, and if they don't do it this week we'll be exploited in the passing game.
I'm a big believer in the idea that you have to rush as many as it takes to get pressure. It doesn't matter how many you drop into coverage, if the quarterback has 5 seconds in the pocket, a halfway decent one will find an open receiver. John Parker Wilson is no exception. The Wilson-Hall combination is lethal if Hall has time to complete a route and Wilson has time to find him. We will have to get to Wilson to stop that passing game, and I really hope that this means Pelini will get out of the soft zones we've been playing.
On special teams, Bama has a very good returner we'll have to neutralize. Hopefully we won't do it by squib kicking and giving Bama the ball on the 40 every time, like some teams have done at times.
Where are the key matchups on the field? What sort of strategy do I expect the teams to employ? Where will they find the success?
For the LSU offense, I expect them to run the ball. Big surprise. But let's look a little past that. We've run a lot of Hester lately, but I expect that the speed guys may have a lot more success in this game. I think that means more of Keiland, more of Holliday, and more of Murphy. We'll start with Hester but I see us moving to the speedier guys as the game progresses.
Our passing game should be much more effective now that we have Early Doucet back, and while I expect us to continue running more than we pass, it is my hope and expectation that we will be more efficient in the passing game. Bama has good corners, but has been somewhat vulnerable when their safeties have been caught in one-on-one situations. We'll run to set up the pass, the same way we have all year. It seems like our passing identity has finally emerged, and we appear to be more of a safe passing team, going to tight ends and into the middle of the field a lot. We've had success going to Richard Dickson and to the deep middle of the field.
On defense, we've had a lot of problems lately with teams going to middle of our zone. They've also had success with power running right at us. Fortunately, Bama doesn't really have a power running game. They excel at the speed running game with Terry Grant, who is a big play scat back. The key will be stopping Grant and putting the passing game into obvious passing situations.
In those obvious passing situations, expect Bama to move their best receiver, DJ Hall, around the formation to try to find and exploit mismatches. Hall is a guy who can exploit a zone and can't really be covered by a safety one-on-one. I wouldn't describe him as a speed guy, but he's big, he runs good routes, and he doesn't drop the ball. If we sit back in a soft zone and give the quarterback time to throw, DJ Hall will pick us apart. However, I think they can be beaten on the line, and we can have a lot of success with opportunistic blitzes.
Of course, games in the SEC are often won on the lines, and I think we have a fairly significant advantage here, especially when we're on defense. The Bama offensive line played its best game last week without two of its starters, but frankly Tennessee's defense is not as good as usual this year, and they were unable to exploit the problems on the Bama offensive line (or the Bama energy and emotion for that matter). If those guys continue to be out, I think we'll be able to exploit their absence a little more.
Our problem here is that we haven't gotten consistent pressure on quarterbacks except when we blitz, and that has definitely hurt us. I don't expect our best pass rusher, Kirston Pittman, to have a lot of success going against Andre Smith, but our other guys should be expected to get to the quarterback. They haven't done it consistently this year, and if they don't do it this week we'll be exploited in the passing game.
I'm a big believer in the idea that you have to rush as many as it takes to get pressure. It doesn't matter how many you drop into coverage, if the quarterback has 5 seconds in the pocket, a halfway decent one will find an open receiver. John Parker Wilson is no exception. The Wilson-Hall combination is lethal if Hall has time to complete a route and Wilson has time to find him. We will have to get to Wilson to stop that passing game, and I really hope that this means Pelini will get out of the soft zones we've been playing.
On special teams, Bama has a very good returner we'll have to neutralize. Hopefully we won't do it by squib kicking and giving Bama the ball on the 40 every time, like some teams have done at times.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Biggest Game of the Week
I was on the road yesterday for a little while, listening to two talk radio idiots talking about the big college games of the week. One of them said Arizona St. vs. Oregon was the biggest game of the week because it was the game between highest-rated teams and had the greatest national championship implications. The other one said that the LSU-Bama game was the biggest because a) it's SEC, b) the whole Saban thing, and c) the teams don't like each other.
I agree with Idiot #2, and I'll tell you why.
Sure, the game between Arizona State and Oregon has substantial national championship implications. The winner will be in the thick of the championship hunt while the loser will be effectively eliminated. The same is not true of the LSU vs. Bama game. LSU remains in the national championship hunt, and will be eliminated if they lose, but Bama is not in it and can't get back into it.
While the ASU-Oregon game has that win-and-still-in-it, lose-and-you're-out subplot, and that certainly is meaningful, here's the deal about it. Outside of Pac-10 country, no one cares which one stays in and which one goes out. Someone will win. Someone will lose. I'll say, "Now isn't that interesting," as I read about it in the newspaper the next day.
On the other hand, the LSU-Bama game has, for all intents and purposes, the division title on the line. It also has a coach going against his old team, and that coach's replacement trying to show that it's his team. (Never mind that I think he's long since already done it; the media doesn't seem to agree). It is also a bitter, century-old rivalry. But the kicker is the Saban factor. Literally every college football fan in the country is interested to know how this game plays out. They want to see how these teams play and how these coaches play in this very bitter and heated environment. That's something ASU-Oregon can't match.
OK, I'm maybe exaggerating a little. Fact is that Oregon looks like a pretty good team at this point, and they have a very exciting offense. They're a fun team to watch. But I think the larger point remains.
I agree with Idiot #2, and I'll tell you why.
Sure, the game between Arizona State and Oregon has substantial national championship implications. The winner will be in the thick of the championship hunt while the loser will be effectively eliminated. The same is not true of the LSU vs. Bama game. LSU remains in the national championship hunt, and will be eliminated if they lose, but Bama is not in it and can't get back into it.
While the ASU-Oregon game has that win-and-still-in-it, lose-and-you're-out subplot, and that certainly is meaningful, here's the deal about it. Outside of Pac-10 country, no one cares which one stays in and which one goes out. Someone will win. Someone will lose. I'll say, "Now isn't that interesting," as I read about it in the newspaper the next day.
On the other hand, the LSU-Bama game has, for all intents and purposes, the division title on the line. It also has a coach going against his old team, and that coach's replacement trying to show that it's his team. (Never mind that I think he's long since already done it; the media doesn't seem to agree). It is also a bitter, century-old rivalry. But the kicker is the Saban factor. Literally every college football fan in the country is interested to know how this game plays out. They want to see how these teams play and how these coaches play in this very bitter and heated environment. That's something ASU-Oregon can't match.
OK, I'm maybe exaggerating a little. Fact is that Oregon looks like a pretty good team at this point, and they have a very exciting offense. They're a fun team to watch. But I think the larger point remains.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Game Day: Auburn
Yet another fateful day is here, and today marks the 2/3 mark of the season for us. Game 8. It's also, needless to say, Auburn. Everyone with a lick of sense holds a special place in their hearts for hatred of Auburn.
But it's going to be a long day before we get to Auburn. There are only three SEC games on television this week, which is a mild disappointment, especially since USC vs. Vandy is not being televised. Here're my plans for the day:
Now until 11:30am: Various chores and activities, including a trip to the Kentuck Art Festival with my family. There will possibly be a trip to the library as well, and likely a short jaunt to the grocery store to buy milk and other household supplies.
11:30am - 2:30pm: Tennessee at Bama, Lincoln-Financial. If it's not over at 2:30, and if it's still competitive, I'll keep watching. I think Tennessee is the better team, which is strange because I wouldn't have said that two weeks ago at this time. If there is any trend you may notice from my writings, it is that I do not believe the better team necessarily wins every game, and these teams are close enough in talent that you really couldn't make a confident prediction. Plus, Bama's at home, and they hate Tennessee more than the Baptists hate to drink in public. Bama's problem here is that Tennessee's offense is pretty darn explosive. It's also very balanced. They can run with Lamarcus Coker and Arrian Foster, and it can pass with Erik Ainge, who is quietly having the kind of season that might normally make someone a 1st Team All-SEC quarterback. Too bad for him there's a guy named Woodson and a guy like Tebow stealing all the headlines. Bama's defense has been surprisingly good at times, and got something of a preview of this kind of offense when it went against a surprisingly dynamic Ole Miss team. They didn't have much success defensively against Ole Miss though, so they'll have to improve a lot from last week to this week. Bama can win, but it will be tough. They'll need Tennessee to be flat.
An interesting point: If Bama loses to Tennessee, they STILL control their destiny in the West. They will have two SEC losses, but both to Eastern Division opponents. If they win out after that, both Auburn and LSU will have at least two losses, at least one of which will be against a Western Division opponent. Bama would win the West. Further, a win here won't really help Bama in the SEC West, as they'd still have to probably win out in order to win the West.
2:30pm - 6:00 pm: Florida at Kentucky, CBS. I think Kentucky has a real chance here. And yes, I think that in part because of how they played us. They showed real character in beating us. It will be an uphill climb, but I think they got a lot of confidence from that win. Florida's secondary is young, and Kentucky's quarterback is great. That's a recipe for success if you're Kentucky. If Kentucky can bring the physical play the way they did last week on the defensive side of the ball, they're a very good football team.
7:00pm - 8:00pm: Michigan at Illinois, ABC: Go Fightin' Zooks!
8:00pm - midnight: Auburn at LSU, ESPN. Obviously, this is a big game for both teams. I don't think the loser has a prayer in the SEC West, and the winner has a very good chance of holding onto the top spot. Right now, only LSU, Auburn, and Bama control their destinies in the West. Arkansas, Ole Miss, and MSU have no real chance. I think the LSU/Auburn/Bama round-robin that occurs in the next several weeks decides the West, and that LSU and Auburn are both a little better than Bama at this point.
But it's going to be a long day before we get to Auburn. There are only three SEC games on television this week, which is a mild disappointment, especially since USC vs. Vandy is not being televised. Here're my plans for the day:
Now until 11:30am: Various chores and activities, including a trip to the Kentuck Art Festival with my family. There will possibly be a trip to the library as well, and likely a short jaunt to the grocery store to buy milk and other household supplies.
11:30am - 2:30pm: Tennessee at Bama, Lincoln-Financial. If it's not over at 2:30, and if it's still competitive, I'll keep watching. I think Tennessee is the better team, which is strange because I wouldn't have said that two weeks ago at this time. If there is any trend you may notice from my writings, it is that I do not believe the better team necessarily wins every game, and these teams are close enough in talent that you really couldn't make a confident prediction. Plus, Bama's at home, and they hate Tennessee more than the Baptists hate to drink in public. Bama's problem here is that Tennessee's offense is pretty darn explosive. It's also very balanced. They can run with Lamarcus Coker and Arrian Foster, and it can pass with Erik Ainge, who is quietly having the kind of season that might normally make someone a 1st Team All-SEC quarterback. Too bad for him there's a guy named Woodson and a guy like Tebow stealing all the headlines. Bama's defense has been surprisingly good at times, and got something of a preview of this kind of offense when it went against a surprisingly dynamic Ole Miss team. They didn't have much success defensively against Ole Miss though, so they'll have to improve a lot from last week to this week. Bama can win, but it will be tough. They'll need Tennessee to be flat.
An interesting point: If Bama loses to Tennessee, they STILL control their destiny in the West. They will have two SEC losses, but both to Eastern Division opponents. If they win out after that, both Auburn and LSU will have at least two losses, at least one of which will be against a Western Division opponent. Bama would win the West. Further, a win here won't really help Bama in the SEC West, as they'd still have to probably win out in order to win the West.
2:30pm - 6:00 pm: Florida at Kentucky, CBS. I think Kentucky has a real chance here. And yes, I think that in part because of how they played us. They showed real character in beating us. It will be an uphill climb, but I think they got a lot of confidence from that win. Florida's secondary is young, and Kentucky's quarterback is great. That's a recipe for success if you're Kentucky. If Kentucky can bring the physical play the way they did last week on the defensive side of the ball, they're a very good football team.
7:00pm - 8:00pm: Michigan at Illinois, ABC: Go Fightin' Zooks!
8:00pm - midnight: Auburn at LSU, ESPN. Obviously, this is a big game for both teams. I don't think the loser has a prayer in the SEC West, and the winner has a very good chance of holding onto the top spot. Right now, only LSU, Auburn, and Bama control their destinies in the West. Arkansas, Ole Miss, and MSU have no real chance. I think the LSU/Auburn/Bama round-robin that occurs in the next several weeks decides the West, and that LSU and Auburn are both a little better than Bama at this point.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Around the SEC Preview
I have a guest blogging assistant this morning, as my 6 1/2 month old daughter prematurely decided she no longer wanted to be in bed.
This will be a pretty good week in the SEC, but it's partially offset by a strange TV schedule, and the failure of ESPN to air one of the more interesting matchups.
Mississippi State at South Carolina, 11:30am, Lincoln-Financial. Too bad I'll miss most or all of this game due to the LSU game's 11:00am scheduling. South Carolina's strong running game will have a test against MSU's strong defense. Unfortunately for South Carolina, their best defensive player, senior LB Jasper Brinkley, was lost for the season with a knee injury sustained against LSU. You really hate to see that for a guy who had emerged as a team leader and arguably his team's best player. He'll be back, but probably not before taking his skills to the NFL. He could apply for a medical redshirt if he wants, and come back next year. I think.
This year in the SEC, at least early, we're seeing a couple of elite teams (LSU and Florida) followed by a big pack of teams that are more or less even, all with their own strengths and weaknesses, but all of whom are more than capable of beating each other on any particular day. MSU and South Carolina are among these teams, and both have picked up a big win in the conference. It will be interesting to see if any of these teams break out of the pack and emerge as a 3rd power in the SEC. So far, the best candidates for it seem to be South Carolina and Kentucky, which is strange and exciting.
MSU's problem is a lack of dynamic offense, and I don't see that changing this year. Their offense will limit them all year. They won't be able to put up a lot of points on anyone or score a lot of quick points. They have a good running game, but they don't have a Darren McFadden on their roster, and their passing game is rather poor. They have to grind out yards on the ground 4-8 yards at a time, get turnovers, and play tough defense week after week in order to win. That's hard to do and it will take its toll. Any defensive slips or offensive turnovers will put this team in a deep hole in any given game. For this reason, while I think they're capable of beating anyone out there, they're going to have a tough time actually pulling it off consistently.
Ole Miss at Georgia, noon, no television that I know of. Strangely, this game is being played at noon with no television coverage (I think). It's actually a pretty interesting matchup. Georgia's solid running game and inconsistent passing game will be going up against Ole Miss's young, talented, but thin defense. Ole Miss's solid running game and overachieving passing game will be going up against Georgia's solid defense. Georgia's the better team, but they're coming off a big, draining, emotional win against Bama. Can they respond? Ole Miss proved they can stay with a very good team that isn't up for them. Either that or they proved they are a better team than we thought.
Florida Atlantic at Kentucky: The less said the better. Alright, not really. Kentucky obviously is doing some things right. They're 4-0. They're ranked. They have an explosive offense. But they still don't have much of a defense, and they're not a very physical team. As such, I think they're a threat to be upset by anyone who comes along, including Florida Atlantic. Will it happen? Probably not, but it could. I just think a team like this is a bad game waiting to happen. When it happens, it will be interesting to see if they have what it takes to a) win that game anyway, and b) recover from it mentally.
Alabama vs. Florida State (neutral site), 4:00pm CBS. In another strange and unusual television twist, the CBS game is at 4:00 rather than at 2:30pm. This means it will probably interfere with the 7:00 ESPN game. Bama is another one of those roughly equal teams in the big pack this year, and they've shown signs of breaking out of it. The running game is much better than expected, as is the defense. The passing game has struggled, but the potential remains there. If I was a big Bama fan, I would be very concerned about the extremely physical games my team is playing, especially with so little depth on defense. Those big players can only get worn out so many times before they struggle to come back from it week after week. They've played two games like that in succession, and this game will be another one. That will take its toll.
Florida State is very beatable. They just aren't a very good team at all. Their offense has struggled, getting only 200 yards passing and about 130 yards rushing per game. The only time I actually watched them play, the first half against Clemson, their offensive line was very poor. Supposedly it's improved a lot. They'll have a pretty good test against the Bama defense, which has caused teams problems this season.
North Texas at Arkansas, 6:00pm no television. Eh, who cares?
Eastern Michigan at Vandy, 6:00pm, no television. Vandy's drive for 6 wins continues. This one will be #3. They'll need to figure out how to win at least one more SEC game though. I still think Vandy is a pretty good team, but so is everyone else they still have to play in the SEC. Those other teams are a lot more accustomed to winning than is Vandy.
Auburn at Florida, 7:00pm ESPN. This is the marquee SEC matchup of the week, and it has a line of about 18 points in favor of Florida. Alright, Auburn's not a very good team. I don't think I'm telling anyone anything they don't already know. However, this is a team with a lot of playmakers on defense, good coaches, and an offense that is.. uh.. waiting to break out. They have talent at running back and offensive line. They're just very young at those positions. They're improving weekly. If they can take that big leap forward and become the playmakers that Auburn needs, they will do some things.
The bigger problem is the passing game, and there appears to be no solution to that problem on the horizon. At least not for this year. They simply need an infusion of talent, and that doesn't often come mid-season. Like MSU, they'll have to grind out wins with the running game and the defense.
This will be a pretty good week in the SEC, but it's partially offset by a strange TV schedule, and the failure of ESPN to air one of the more interesting matchups.
Mississippi State at South Carolina, 11:30am, Lincoln-Financial. Too bad I'll miss most or all of this game due to the LSU game's 11:00am scheduling. South Carolina's strong running game will have a test against MSU's strong defense. Unfortunately for South Carolina, their best defensive player, senior LB Jasper Brinkley, was lost for the season with a knee injury sustained against LSU. You really hate to see that for a guy who had emerged as a team leader and arguably his team's best player. He'll be back, but probably not before taking his skills to the NFL. He could apply for a medical redshirt if he wants, and come back next year. I think.
This year in the SEC, at least early, we're seeing a couple of elite teams (LSU and Florida) followed by a big pack of teams that are more or less even, all with their own strengths and weaknesses, but all of whom are more than capable of beating each other on any particular day. MSU and South Carolina are among these teams, and both have picked up a big win in the conference. It will be interesting to see if any of these teams break out of the pack and emerge as a 3rd power in the SEC. So far, the best candidates for it seem to be South Carolina and Kentucky, which is strange and exciting.
MSU's problem is a lack of dynamic offense, and I don't see that changing this year. Their offense will limit them all year. They won't be able to put up a lot of points on anyone or score a lot of quick points. They have a good running game, but they don't have a Darren McFadden on their roster, and their passing game is rather poor. They have to grind out yards on the ground 4-8 yards at a time, get turnovers, and play tough defense week after week in order to win. That's hard to do and it will take its toll. Any defensive slips or offensive turnovers will put this team in a deep hole in any given game. For this reason, while I think they're capable of beating anyone out there, they're going to have a tough time actually pulling it off consistently.
Ole Miss at Georgia, noon, no television that I know of. Strangely, this game is being played at noon with no television coverage (I think). It's actually a pretty interesting matchup. Georgia's solid running game and inconsistent passing game will be going up against Ole Miss's young, talented, but thin defense. Ole Miss's solid running game and overachieving passing game will be going up against Georgia's solid defense. Georgia's the better team, but they're coming off a big, draining, emotional win against Bama. Can they respond? Ole Miss proved they can stay with a very good team that isn't up for them. Either that or they proved they are a better team than we thought.
Florida Atlantic at Kentucky: The less said the better. Alright, not really. Kentucky obviously is doing some things right. They're 4-0. They're ranked. They have an explosive offense. But they still don't have much of a defense, and they're not a very physical team. As such, I think they're a threat to be upset by anyone who comes along, including Florida Atlantic. Will it happen? Probably not, but it could. I just think a team like this is a bad game waiting to happen. When it happens, it will be interesting to see if they have what it takes to a) win that game anyway, and b) recover from it mentally.
Alabama vs. Florida State (neutral site), 4:00pm CBS. In another strange and unusual television twist, the CBS game is at 4:00 rather than at 2:30pm. This means it will probably interfere with the 7:00 ESPN game. Bama is another one of those roughly equal teams in the big pack this year, and they've shown signs of breaking out of it. The running game is much better than expected, as is the defense. The passing game has struggled, but the potential remains there. If I was a big Bama fan, I would be very concerned about the extremely physical games my team is playing, especially with so little depth on defense. Those big players can only get worn out so many times before they struggle to come back from it week after week. They've played two games like that in succession, and this game will be another one. That will take its toll.
Florida State is very beatable. They just aren't a very good team at all. Their offense has struggled, getting only 200 yards passing and about 130 yards rushing per game. The only time I actually watched them play, the first half against Clemson, their offensive line was very poor. Supposedly it's improved a lot. They'll have a pretty good test against the Bama defense, which has caused teams problems this season.
North Texas at Arkansas, 6:00pm no television. Eh, who cares?
Eastern Michigan at Vandy, 6:00pm, no television. Vandy's drive for 6 wins continues. This one will be #3. They'll need to figure out how to win at least one more SEC game though. I still think Vandy is a pretty good team, but so is everyone else they still have to play in the SEC. Those other teams are a lot more accustomed to winning than is Vandy.
Auburn at Florida, 7:00pm ESPN. This is the marquee SEC matchup of the week, and it has a line of about 18 points in favor of Florida. Alright, Auburn's not a very good team. I don't think I'm telling anyone anything they don't already know. However, this is a team with a lot of playmakers on defense, good coaches, and an offense that is.. uh.. waiting to break out. They have talent at running back and offensive line. They're just very young at those positions. They're improving weekly. If they can take that big leap forward and become the playmakers that Auburn needs, they will do some things.
The bigger problem is the passing game, and there appears to be no solution to that problem on the horizon. At least not for this year. They simply need an infusion of talent, and that doesn't often come mid-season. Like MSU, they'll have to grind out wins with the running game and the defense.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Week 4 Around the SEC
In a week that saw only one significant upset on the national level (Michigan over Penn State), the action in the SEC was probably the most exciting stuff all weekend. The LSU-South Carolina game wasn't the most thrilling in the world, but it was the highest profile game of the week. Here's what happened this week around the SEC:
Georgia 26
Bama 23 (OT)
This was expected to be a good game, and it didn't disappoint in the least. These two teams played this game tough the entire time they were on the field. Georgia sprinted out to a 10-0 lead, but didn't appear comfortable at any time except for their first drive, in which they scored a quick touchdown after marching the length of the field with ease. Bama didn't give them anything easy the rest of the game.
I said of this game:
Kentucky 42
Arkansas 29
This was another one of those back-and-forth type games. Early, it looked like Arkansas would run away with it, as they scored they jumped out to a 20-7 lead. Then Kentucky made a furious rally to get it to 21-20 in the 3rd quarter. Arkansas scored the next 9 points on a safety and a touchdown return of the ensuing free kick before Kentucky scored the final 21 points of the game. I'm sorry I didn't get to watch this game, but I was watching the Bama-Georgia game instead.
Jones and McFadden torched the Kentucky defense as expected for 306 yards rushing between them, plus Felix Jones returned that free kick for a touchdown. Surprisingly, despite 338 yards rushing, almost 500 total yards of offense, and touchdowns by both the special teams AND the defense, Arkansas still didn't put up a ton of points. Having outgained Kentucky by 60 yards and scored two non-offensive touchdowns, I don't really understand why they lost so badly. Having not watched the game, I don't really have any insight.
But I have some takeaway lessons:
Florida 30
Ole Miss 24
It's hard to imagine me getting it more wrong than this. Here is what I said:
Blake Adams played a whale of a ballgame, with over 300 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, and a one-game GTQBPI of 9.03. That's outstanding against a team as good as Florida. It gave his team a chance to pull off a major upset, but in the end there was just too much Tim Tebow. Between his running and his passing, he accounted for 427 yards of offense and 2 touchdowns. His GTQBPI was 8.31, and he either ran or passed 51 times on the game. That's good enough to win the coveted GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Player of the Week for the 4th consecutive time.
Auburn 55
New Mexico State 20
Auburn stops the bleeding at least temporarily by getting an easy win over NMSU. Here's what I said of this game:
Mississippi State 31
Gardner Webb 15
OK, they let a team from the former Division I-AA put up 15 points on them and stay within 2 scores. No one ever said MSU had a dynamic high-powered offense. They're going to have to grind out wins, even against weak teams, but they just ground out their 3rd win. In truth though, they jumped out to a 31-3 lead, and then gave up some scores when the game was out of reach. They need to figure out how to win 3 more to get to a bowl game. It won't be easy.
Tennessee 48
Arkansas State 27
Arkansas State stayed within striking distance for most of the game, but never could quite do more than keep it close. Before you start thinking about how Tennessee must have looked bad, keep in mind that Arkansas State gave Texas all they wanted earlier in the season.
That's all I have.
We're now in 1st place in the SEC West thanks to Bama's loss. We're the only undefeated SEC West team. The East has two undefeated teams in Kentucky and Florida. No, this isn't basketball.
Georgia 26
Bama 23 (OT)
This was expected to be a good game, and it didn't disappoint in the least. These two teams played this game tough the entire time they were on the field. Georgia sprinted out to a 10-0 lead, but didn't appear comfortable at any time except for their first drive, in which they scored a quick touchdown after marching the length of the field with ease. Bama didn't give them anything easy the rest of the game.
I said of this game:
They key to this game is Georgia's young, talented, but inconsistent quarterback Matthew Stafford. When he's good, Georgia is a very good team. When he's bad, Georgia is a rather bad team. He was good against Oklahoma State and bad against South Carolina. If Bama's defense can keep him off balance, they'll have a good weekend. If they let Stafford get into a good rhythm and stay there, it's going to be a long night.Stafford had an OK night, but neither great nor terrible. He was 19 for 35 with 224 yards passing, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He avoided getting sacked. He had a one-game GTQBPI of 5.65, which is not great, but is not bad for a BIG game. He was not really the key to the game, however, because he had neither a great game nor a bad game. The key was Georgia's solid running attack, which put up 153 tough yards and wore down the Bama defense.
Kentucky 42
Arkansas 29
This was another one of those back-and-forth type games. Early, it looked like Arkansas would run away with it, as they scored they jumped out to a 20-7 lead. Then Kentucky made a furious rally to get it to 21-20 in the 3rd quarter. Arkansas scored the next 9 points on a safety and a touchdown return of the ensuing free kick before Kentucky scored the final 21 points of the game. I'm sorry I didn't get to watch this game, but I was watching the Bama-Georgia game instead.
Jones and McFadden torched the Kentucky defense as expected for 306 yards rushing between them, plus Felix Jones returned that free kick for a touchdown. Surprisingly, despite 338 yards rushing, almost 500 total yards of offense, and touchdowns by both the special teams AND the defense, Arkansas still didn't put up a ton of points. Having outgained Kentucky by 60 yards and scored two non-offensive touchdowns, I don't really understand why they lost so badly. Having not watched the game, I don't really have any insight.
But I have some takeaway lessons:
- neither of these teams have good defenses.
- both of these teams are very dangerous, but also beatable.
Florida 30
Ole Miss 24
It's hard to imagine me getting it more wrong than this. Here is what I said:
The bad news is that Florida is so much better than Ole Miss that we won't really get an opportunity to gauge how good Ole Miss is.... I think Florida will be able to find a LOT of mismatches.
Blake Adams played a whale of a ballgame, with over 300 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, and a one-game GTQBPI of 9.03. That's outstanding against a team as good as Florida. It gave his team a chance to pull off a major upset, but in the end there was just too much Tim Tebow. Between his running and his passing, he accounted for 427 yards of offense and 2 touchdowns. His GTQBPI was 8.31, and he either ran or passed 51 times on the game. That's good enough to win the coveted GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Player of the Week for the 4th consecutive time.
Auburn 55
New Mexico State 20
Auburn stops the bleeding at least temporarily by getting an easy win over NMSU. Here's what I said of this game:
Keep an eye on that New Mexico State-Auburn score. Don't be surprised if New Mexico State has a shot at this game in the 4th quarter. Auburn's offense is struggling immensely due to poor blocking and lack of playmakers at the skill positions. NMSU plays that pass-happy Hal Mumme offense. If they can avoid giving Auburn short fields and can find a way to put up 3 touchdowns, they have a real chance here.NMSU put up a few points, but they also committed 6 turnovers. They actually only outgained by about 40 yards on the game, but those short fields killed their chances. Auburn QBs had a solid game, even if they weren't spectacular. Next week, they get Florida but also get Brad Lester back. Let's see if that provides the magic cure to Auburn's ills.
Mississippi State 31
Gardner Webb 15
OK, they let a team from the former Division I-AA put up 15 points on them and stay within 2 scores. No one ever said MSU had a dynamic high-powered offense. They're going to have to grind out wins, even against weak teams, but they just ground out their 3rd win. In truth though, they jumped out to a 31-3 lead, and then gave up some scores when the game was out of reach. They need to figure out how to win 3 more to get to a bowl game. It won't be easy.
Tennessee 48
Arkansas State 27
Arkansas State stayed within striking distance for most of the game, but never could quite do more than keep it close. Before you start thinking about how Tennessee must have looked bad, keep in mind that Arkansas State gave Texas all they wanted earlier in the season.
That's all I have.
We're now in 1st place in the SEC West thanks to Bama's loss. We're the only undefeated SEC West team. The East has two undefeated teams in Kentucky and Florida. No, this isn't basketball.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
GameDay: South Carolina
OK, I got up at 4:30am today because the baby decided she REALLY didn't want to be in bed anymore. Is she excited about football? That's all I can assume.
So what are the plans for today? Well, there's football of course.
Now until 9:00am: chores, family activity, maybe watch a movie on Tivo, maybe go do the grocery shopping.
9:00am - 11:00am: ESPN GameDay is in Tuscaloosa, which is actually kind of disappointing. I had hoped they'd come here for the LSU-Bama game. I suppose they still might, but they usually don't go to the same place twice in one season. I may or may not watch any of it. Honestly, probably not. Mrs. GeauxTuscaloosa wants to go to the relatively new bakery in Northport. I love a good bakery, so she didn't have to twist my arm. This is a "bread" bakery rather than a "sweets" bakery. I really wish there was a good donut shop here in Tuscaloosa. I find Krispie Kreme to be all kinds of nasty. I know I'm in the minority on that, but when you were raised on donuts from Cal's Bakery in Gonzales, Louisiana, it's hard to go from that to this oddly flavored, oddly textured doughy donut from Krispie Kreme. Whenever I'm visiting my parents, we end up spending like $30 on donuts from Cal's. If anyone knows of a really good donut available in Tuscaloosa, I'm all ears. But I digress.
11:00am - 11:30am: Bide my time.
11:30am - 2:30pm: Florida at Ole Miss, Lincoln-Financial. When I was a kid, my Dad called the neighborhood convenience store the "Pac-A-Sac" even though it was a 7-Eleven, and later a Circle-K. It had previously been called Pac-A-Sac, but only for a couple years, and had changed its name before I was old enough to remember it. Since we moved to Gonzales when I was 2 years old, and it had undoubtedly changed its name by the time I was 5 years old, my Dad had only known this store as a Pac-A-Sac for a maximum of about 3 years, but continued to call it by that name for another decade. I have decided that I'm not quite old enough yet to refuse to call things by their new names, so I won't call it "Jefferson Pilot". It's "Lincoln-Financial", even if it sounds wrong. I'll just get used to it.
I can't say this matchup intrigues me at all. I'll watch it, because it's my first chance to see Ole Miss, and another chance to see Florida, but I have no expectations that Ole Miss will be able to stay in this game.
2:30pm - 6:00pm: South Carolina at LSU, CBS. The more I think about this game, the less supremely confident I become. USC has a really solid defense all around. They also have a very good running game. MSU was able to run the ball on us early in that game. Blake Mitchell has, at times, been a very good quarterback. Of course, he's the TYPE of quarterback we have mauled all season: a drop-back passer without good escapability. We're the clear favorite for very good reason, but this matchup is not as bad a lot of people, including myself earlier in the week, seemed to think.
Once again, a key is going to be how our offensive line is able to get a push against that defense. If we've shown any chinks in the armor, it's been on the offensive line.
6:00pm - 7:00pm: 2nd Quarter of Kentucky at Arkansas, ESPN2: I really want to know why ESPN schedules the #2 and #3 SEC matchups of the week to be played mostly at the same time. I know that the SEC probably gets more money by giving ESPN the #3 matchup rather than by giving that matchup to Lincoln-Financial, but as an SEC fan, I sure would prefer to see Kentucky at Arkansas rather than Florida at Ole Miss, but in order to see this game, I'd have to give up watching Georgia at Bama. I won't be doing that unless Georgia at Bama is a blowout.
Since SportsCenter and College Football Live haven't been bloviating endlessly on the subject of Darren McFadden's injury, I'm assuming he's good to go on this game. In the last few years, Kentucky has had an abysmal defense, and Arkansas proved last week it is very vulnerable to the pass. Kentucky is as good of a passing team as there is in the conference right now, with the possible exception of Florida, and McFadden and Jones put up yards against even the great defenses. There could be 90 points in this game.
7:00pm - 10:30pm or so: Georgia at Bama, ESPN: I believe I've said it before, but I'll say it again. The key here is Matthew Stafford. He's very talented and very young, but he is also inconsistent. When he's good and in a rhythm, Georgia is a very good team. When he's off-balance and out of rhythm, Georgia is very beatable. The key to this game will be what Bama does to try to disrupt Stafford, and how Stafford responds. If Stafford is sharp, I believe Bama has little chance to win this game. If Bama can make Stafford struggle, they will likely win this game.
Watch out also for special teams. Both teams have great return men who can put points on the board.
Final Note: Keep an eye on that New Mexico State-Auburn score. Don't be surprised if New Mexico State has a shot at this game in the 4th quarter. Auburn's offense is struggling immensely due to poor blocking and lack of playmakers at the skill positions. NMSU plays that pass-happy Hal Mumme offense. If they can avoid giving Auburn short fields and can find a way to put up 3 touchdowns, they have a real chance here.
So what are the plans for today? Well, there's football of course.
Now until 9:00am: chores, family activity, maybe watch a movie on Tivo, maybe go do the grocery shopping.
9:00am - 11:00am: ESPN GameDay is in Tuscaloosa, which is actually kind of disappointing. I had hoped they'd come here for the LSU-Bama game. I suppose they still might, but they usually don't go to the same place twice in one season. I may or may not watch any of it. Honestly, probably not. Mrs. GeauxTuscaloosa wants to go to the relatively new bakery in Northport. I love a good bakery, so she didn't have to twist my arm. This is a "bread" bakery rather than a "sweets" bakery. I really wish there was a good donut shop here in Tuscaloosa. I find Krispie Kreme to be all kinds of nasty. I know I'm in the minority on that, but when you were raised on donuts from Cal's Bakery in Gonzales, Louisiana, it's hard to go from that to this oddly flavored, oddly textured doughy donut from Krispie Kreme. Whenever I'm visiting my parents, we end up spending like $30 on donuts from Cal's. If anyone knows of a really good donut available in Tuscaloosa, I'm all ears. But I digress.
11:00am - 11:30am: Bide my time.
11:30am - 2:30pm: Florida at Ole Miss, Lincoln-Financial. When I was a kid, my Dad called the neighborhood convenience store the "Pac-A-Sac" even though it was a 7-Eleven, and later a Circle-K. It had previously been called Pac-A-Sac, but only for a couple years, and had changed its name before I was old enough to remember it. Since we moved to Gonzales when I was 2 years old, and it had undoubtedly changed its name by the time I was 5 years old, my Dad had only known this store as a Pac-A-Sac for a maximum of about 3 years, but continued to call it by that name for another decade. I have decided that I'm not quite old enough yet to refuse to call things by their new names, so I won't call it "Jefferson Pilot". It's "Lincoln-Financial", even if it sounds wrong. I'll just get used to it.
I can't say this matchup intrigues me at all. I'll watch it, because it's my first chance to see Ole Miss, and another chance to see Florida, but I have no expectations that Ole Miss will be able to stay in this game.
2:30pm - 6:00pm: South Carolina at LSU, CBS. The more I think about this game, the less supremely confident I become. USC has a really solid defense all around. They also have a very good running game. MSU was able to run the ball on us early in that game. Blake Mitchell has, at times, been a very good quarterback. Of course, he's the TYPE of quarterback we have mauled all season: a drop-back passer without good escapability. We're the clear favorite for very good reason, but this matchup is not as bad a lot of people, including myself earlier in the week, seemed to think.
Once again, a key is going to be how our offensive line is able to get a push against that defense. If we've shown any chinks in the armor, it's been on the offensive line.
6:00pm - 7:00pm: 2nd Quarter of Kentucky at Arkansas, ESPN2: I really want to know why ESPN schedules the #2 and #3 SEC matchups of the week to be played mostly at the same time. I know that the SEC probably gets more money by giving ESPN the #3 matchup rather than by giving that matchup to Lincoln-Financial, but as an SEC fan, I sure would prefer to see Kentucky at Arkansas rather than Florida at Ole Miss, but in order to see this game, I'd have to give up watching Georgia at Bama. I won't be doing that unless Georgia at Bama is a blowout.
Since SportsCenter and College Football Live haven't been bloviating endlessly on the subject of Darren McFadden's injury, I'm assuming he's good to go on this game. In the last few years, Kentucky has had an abysmal defense, and Arkansas proved last week it is very vulnerable to the pass. Kentucky is as good of a passing team as there is in the conference right now, with the possible exception of Florida, and McFadden and Jones put up yards against even the great defenses. There could be 90 points in this game.
7:00pm - 10:30pm or so: Georgia at Bama, ESPN: I believe I've said it before, but I'll say it again. The key here is Matthew Stafford. He's very talented and very young, but he is also inconsistent. When he's good and in a rhythm, Georgia is a very good team. When he's off-balance and out of rhythm, Georgia is very beatable. The key to this game will be what Bama does to try to disrupt Stafford, and how Stafford responds. If Stafford is sharp, I believe Bama has little chance to win this game. If Bama can make Stafford struggle, they will likely win this game.
Watch out also for special teams. Both teams have great return men who can put points on the board.
Final Note: Keep an eye on that New Mexico State-Auburn score. Don't be surprised if New Mexico State has a shot at this game in the 4th quarter. Auburn's offense is struggling immensely due to poor blocking and lack of playmakers at the skill positions. NMSU plays that pass-happy Hal Mumme offense. If they can avoid giving Auburn short fields and can find a way to put up 3 touchdowns, they have a real chance here.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Game Day: MTSU
OK, it's Game Day again, this time for the Blue Raiders of MTSU. This will be a first for GeauxTuscaloosa, a football game that I will not be seeing. As explained earlier in the week, I will not be able to be home for this game. I'll be at a wedding for a friend. Yes, it's a friend who isn't interested in football.
I won't be able to listen to much of it on the radio, but I may be able to catch the second half on the way home. That means there won't be any "First Replay" or "Second Replay" posts. I'll have to figure out other things to talk about.
I'll also miss all of the second most interesting game in the SEC this week: Alabama vs. Arkansas. I said we'd find out more about Bama with their matchup against Vandy, and we did. We found out that Bama is a legitimate bowl team who is a threat to beat any team on their schedule. This week, we will find out even more. We'll find out if they're a legitimate threat in the SEC West, or are they just spoilers trying to get to the Music City Bowl.
So, here's my schedule of the day:
Now to 11:30am: Avoid GameDay on ESPN like the plague. Do some errands. Walk the dog. There is no interesting 11:00am game, so skip that.
11:30-2:30pm: Mississippi State at Auburn: Here in Tuscaloosa, sports talk radio has been absolutely dominated by criticism of Auburn this week. The Auburn fans are very upset at how bad their team has looked the first two weeks. I think highly of Tommy Tuberville's coaching abilities, but there is no one to blame but him for the fact that Auburn has such a poor offensive line and a lack of playmaking wide receivers. He's been recruiting and coaching these guys for their entire careers, and if they didn't recruit good receivers and offensive linemen 3 and 4 years ago such that he does not have that wave of juniors and seniors ready to take the reins of the offense, that's his own fault. Auburn fans are right to criticize him for it.
If you're 7 years into your tenure as coach and a true freshman is starting on the offensive line, either that freshman must be incredible or you have a lot to answer for. It looks like Tubby has a lot to answer for.
With such an inexperienced offense, this is a team that is likely to improve considerably over the course of the season, but for right now they're vulnerable, and it's my conclusion from observing these teams that MSU matches up pretty well with Auburn. They have a pretty good defensive line that can take advantage of Auburn's inexperienced offensive front and a very good left tackle who may be able to neutralize Auburn's best player, Quentin Groves. If Michael Henig can avoid the mistakes that doomed them against LSU, they have a shot to win this game.
If MSU wins, it's going to be a VERY interesting week in Alabama.
2:30-4:30, Tennessee at Florida. This is a very interesting game, because we don't really know how good Florida is. They've beaten up on some weak teams early in the year, but haven't faced a real test. Then again, we don't know how good Tennessee is either. Their defense certainly looked very vulnerable against Cal, and now they're missing a starting cornerback to injury.
I think Tennessee will get its points. The questions are
7:00pm-9:00pm or so: Attend wedding reception: The wedding itself is a small, very private family affair to which I am not invited (neither is anyone else who isn't related, from what I understand. The reception is where the action is. I decided not to get a hotel, because my wife and child will not be there. My wife was invited, but it was not possible to bring the baby because the venue is an art museum, with no children allowed in the building. That would have meant we'd have to get a sitter for the baby, and the whole thing just seemed way to fraught with danger and difficulty. Therefore, I'm going alone, and I'm coming back the same night.
9:00pm-whenever: I will be driving home, hoping to catch the second half of the game on the radio. As I get closer to Tuscaloosa, WWL will likely go out, and I'll switch over to the Bama-Arky game if it's still on.
The rumors around the message board is that Flynn is walking around in a boot and either a) is not ready to go, or b) shouldn't play and risk more serious injury. If so, it looks like Ryan Perrilloux may get his long-awaited first start. Stay tuned.
I won't be able to listen to much of it on the radio, but I may be able to catch the second half on the way home. That means there won't be any "First Replay" or "Second Replay" posts. I'll have to figure out other things to talk about.
I'll also miss all of the second most interesting game in the SEC this week: Alabama vs. Arkansas. I said we'd find out more about Bama with their matchup against Vandy, and we did. We found out that Bama is a legitimate bowl team who is a threat to beat any team on their schedule. This week, we will find out even more. We'll find out if they're a legitimate threat in the SEC West, or are they just spoilers trying to get to the Music City Bowl.
So, here's my schedule of the day:
Now to 11:30am: Avoid GameDay on ESPN like the plague. Do some errands. Walk the dog. There is no interesting 11:00am game, so skip that.
11:30-2:30pm: Mississippi State at Auburn: Here in Tuscaloosa, sports talk radio has been absolutely dominated by criticism of Auburn this week. The Auburn fans are very upset at how bad their team has looked the first two weeks. I think highly of Tommy Tuberville's coaching abilities, but there is no one to blame but him for the fact that Auburn has such a poor offensive line and a lack of playmaking wide receivers. He's been recruiting and coaching these guys for their entire careers, and if they didn't recruit good receivers and offensive linemen 3 and 4 years ago such that he does not have that wave of juniors and seniors ready to take the reins of the offense, that's his own fault. Auburn fans are right to criticize him for it.
If you're 7 years into your tenure as coach and a true freshman is starting on the offensive line, either that freshman must be incredible or you have a lot to answer for. It looks like Tubby has a lot to answer for.
With such an inexperienced offense, this is a team that is likely to improve considerably over the course of the season, but for right now they're vulnerable, and it's my conclusion from observing these teams that MSU matches up pretty well with Auburn. They have a pretty good defensive line that can take advantage of Auburn's inexperienced offensive front and a very good left tackle who may be able to neutralize Auburn's best player, Quentin Groves. If Michael Henig can avoid the mistakes that doomed them against LSU, they have a shot to win this game.
If MSU wins, it's going to be a VERY interesting week in Alabama.
2:30-4:30, Tennessee at Florida. This is a very interesting game, because we don't really know how good Florida is. They've beaten up on some weak teams early in the year, but haven't faced a real test. Then again, we don't know how good Tennessee is either. Their defense certainly looked very vulnerable against Cal, and now they're missing a starting cornerback to injury.
I think Tennessee will get its points. The questions are
- Can Florida's inexperienced and untested defense hold Tennessee's offense to a reasonable number of points, giving its offense a chance to win the game?
- Has Tennessee's suspect defense improved as a result of its embarrassment against Cal enough to hold Tebow and company to a reasonable point total to give Lamarcus Coker and Erik Ainge a chance to win?
7:00pm-9:00pm or so: Attend wedding reception: The wedding itself is a small, very private family affair to which I am not invited (neither is anyone else who isn't related, from what I understand. The reception is where the action is. I decided not to get a hotel, because my wife and child will not be there. My wife was invited, but it was not possible to bring the baby because the venue is an art museum, with no children allowed in the building. That would have meant we'd have to get a sitter for the baby, and the whole thing just seemed way to fraught with danger and difficulty. Therefore, I'm going alone, and I'm coming back the same night.
9:00pm-whenever: I will be driving home, hoping to catch the second half of the game on the radio. As I get closer to Tuscaloosa, WWL will likely go out, and I'll switch over to the Bama-Arky game if it's still on.
The rumors around the message board is that Flynn is walking around in a boot and either a) is not ready to go, or b) shouldn't play and risk more serious injury. If so, it looks like Ryan Perrilloux may get his long-awaited first start. Stay tuned.
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