Jason Wins

In a result surprising to no one, Jason wins the tourney game.  The final standings are as follows:

1. Jason - 714 points
2. Me - 700 points
3. Daniel - 648 points
4. Poseur - 646 points
5. Rollie - 619 points
6. Jroberts - 540 points
7. Scott - 390 points

In another result surprising very few people, Memphis lost because they didn't hit free throws.

Alright, that's not really fair.  Over the course of the game, they hit 12 of 19 free throws, which is a 63% rate.  That's not terrible.  Not great, but not terrible.  They just missed a bunch down the stretch, and it was one of their best free throw shooters missing them.

For a random thought of the morning, I have two observations about televised sports that I think are interrelated:

1. Television executives reportedly complain about how long sporting events last, and how they go on beyond their scheduled times, and
2. Television stations air seemingly interminable pre-game segments, even for routine events, getting longer as the games get more important.

I truly believe that thanks to the internet and 24 hour sports channels, there isn't a whole lot of need for the networks to catch me up on the news before they start their broadcast of the games.  Yet, they spend a lot of time telling me things that I already know, and that anyone could easily find out if they are really interested, delaying the starts of games and having them run long.

Last night, the broadcast started at 8:00 and the game didn't begin until after 8:30.  This problem is not limited to basketball.  This weekend I watched the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Yankees (yay!) on Fox in an early season match that is ultimately almost irrelevant to the final results of the season.  The pre-game lasted over 20 minutes.

When I watched World Cup games in 2006, I was at first very put-off by the fact that when a game was set to start at 1:00pm, they went to the arena at precisely 1:00pm and the game was set for kickoff.  It was jarring not to have any pregame, but then I got used to it, and ever since I have wondered why soccer is the only sport that does it this way.  

If there is anything that needs to be said to set up the drama of the game, it can usually be said between the action of most major sporting events.  Surely baseball is such a slow-moving sport that you could have an entire slow moving, tear jerking SportsCenteresque human interest story about the survivor of some rare disease between pitches.  

As pregame activities expand, networks bristle at the fact that televised sports take up greater than their allotted time.  Networks like ESPN, ABC, and CBS have lobbied for (and gotten) changes in the rules to shorten college football games, all while clogging up the television set at the top of their broadcasts with extraneous material that delays the start of the game.  If CBS want to shorten their broadcasts, then they should start their 2:30pm football game precisely at 2:30.  If they want to have pre-game, then have a specially set 30 minute pregame show.  I assure you, after the initial jolt, fans will get used to it.  They will even come to like it.

OK, so that random thought actually took up most of this post.  Sue me.

Tourney Game: Effectively Over

For the first time ever, all the 1-seeds are going to the Final Four. By necessity then, everyone has one player remaining, their player from the 1-seeds.

It also appears that Poseur's and my own brief threat to overtake Jason will fall short. In fact, I know mine has. Poseur is still mathematically in it, but he's 51 points behind, meaning Kevin Love would have to outscore Tyler Hansbrough by 51 points over the remainder of the tournament in order for Poseur to catch up. That's pretty far-fetched.

Anyway, here are the current standings:

Jason: 697 points, Tyler Hansbrough remaining
Richard: 683 points, Tyler Hansbrough remaining
Poseur: 646 points, Kevin Love remaining
Rollie Fingers: 602 points, Tyler Hansbrough remaining
Daniel: 598 points, Chris Douglas-Roberts remaining
Jroberts: 490 points, Chris Douglas-Roberts remaining
Scott: 388 points, Darren Collison remaining

No matter what, I will end the tournament 14 points behind Jason. As mentioned, Poseur has to have Love outscore Hansbrough by 51 in order to catch Jason. No one else is even remotely close.

It's been a pretty fun tournament, though I regret there's no underdog story in the Final Four. Watching Stephen Curry's run through the tournament was exciting. Watching Western Kentucky (to the small extent I got to watch them) was also exciting. I also enjoyed watching Joe Alexander from West Virginia.

What did I learn about the game that I will be applying next year?

1. Find the dynamic scorers and pick them, no matter what. If I had picked Michael Beasley, I would have won the game. I didn't pick him because I thought USC was going places, and I didn't want to pick Beasley, who played USC in the first round and would have gotten the stifling Wisconsin slow-down game in the second. I picked Ramel Bradley instead, and though Ramel had a good game, he was outscored by Beasley 46-19. There are always a few dynamic scorers in the tournament. Find them and pick them, and don't overthink it.

Of course, it was exactly this thinking that made me pick Shan Foster, so take this advice for what it's worth.

2. Avoid players on teams that have "balanced scoring". Picking players off of Louisville or Wisconsin this year didn't pay off. David Padgett only scored in double figures in one game out of his four. Trevon Hughes had one big game and scored a total of 8 points in his other two. Find another team with a star player instead.

3. Don't believe the hype about guard play being most important. This maxim made me pick Jamont Gordon instead of Charles Rhodes. Gordon had a respectable 29 points. Rhodes scored 48. Once again, I would have won this tournament if I'd just picked the other Bulldog. This also made me pick DJ Augustin, who only had one game in the 20s and also one game with 6 points. Then again, Augustin was the best among the 2's anyone actually picked.

We won't be focusing so hard on the tourney from here on out. Frankly, I have no rooting interest anymore. I dislike all the teams remaining. I suppose I dislike Memphis the least though.

Tourney Game Results - Round 3

We have results for Round 3 of the NCAA Tournament Game, and wouldn't you know it, but it's a game again. I won the 3rd round with 136 points. Jason had 128, while Poseur had 122. I ate into Jason's lead by 8 points, leaving me 30 points behind.

Most importantly though, Poseur and I each have an extra player over Jason. Results are as follows:

Jason: 644 points (Hansbrough and Curry remaining)
Richard: 614 points (Hansbrough, Augustin, and Curry remaining)
Poseur: 605 points (Love, Augustin, and Curry remaining)
Rollie: 549 points (Hansbrough and Curry remaining)
Daniel: 542 points (Douglas-Roberts, Padgett, and Curry remaining)
Jroberts: 449 points (Douglas-Roberts and Augustin remaining)
Scott: 369 points (Collison remaining)

It's a 3-team race now between Jason, Poseur, and myself. We all have Stephen Curry remaining, so he doesn't count anymore. Jason and I have Hansbrough in common, so I simply have Augustin as a bonus. If Augustin scores 31 points from now to the end of the tournament, I pass Jason.

For Poseur, if Love and Augustin score 40 points more than Hansbrough, he passes Jason, but he needs Love to outscore Hansbrough by 10 in order to pass me. This will actually be an exciting finish.

The key players remaining, then, are Love, Hansbrough, and Augustin. Poseur and I want Augustin to do well. Jason and I want Hansbrough to do well. Poseur wants Love to do well. None of these players go head to head in the Elite 8. It's really anyone's game at this point, and the key game is probably Memphis vs. Texas tomorrow night. If Texas is eliminated, it is highly unlikely anyone will catch Jason. If Texas advances, it's anyone's game.

Round 2 Results: The Let-Down

After Round 1, it seemed like it would be a pretty good battle, but then Round 2 happened.

Well, not exactly. The first thing that happened is I noticed I failed to count one player for Jason in the first round, so his totals went up by 26 points from that round, putting him among the leaders in points, but still insanely high in players remaining. This paid off in the second round, as Jason took a commanding lead in the game with 516 points, with 5 players remaining. Here are the standings:

Jason: 516 points (Hansbrough, Lofton, Lopez, Alexander, and Curry remaining)
Poseur: 483 points (Love, Augustin, Lopez, Curry, and Reynolds remaining)
Richard: 478 points (Hansbrough, Augustin, Lopez, Alexander, Curry, and Lee remaining)
Daniel: 459 points (Douglas-Roberts, Lofton, Padgett, and Curry remaining)
Rollie: 447 points (Hansbrough, Lopez, Morgan, Alexander, and Curry remaining)
jroberts: 364 points (Douglas-Roberts, Augustin, Lopez, and Reynolds remaining)
Scott: 332 points (Collison, Lofton, Hughes, and Alexander remaining)

Poseur is in 2nd place in points, but has fewer players remaining than either Jason or me. Daniel had a very good first round, but lost a lot of ground in the 2nd round. Rollie was killed by Roy Hibbert and his failure to pick any of the 12- or 13-seed upsets. Shan Foster probably ended any hope I had of winning this thing, and DJ Augustin has played well without scoring any points, screwing everyone who picked him. Then again, the same could be said of James Lofton. All around, every player picked a dud in the 2-slot. Jroberts was one of the guys who picked the Eric Gordon-Malik Hairston combination at the 8- and 9-seeds, and as a result he is pretty much finished.

Anyway, I now think I'm the only one with any chance to beat Jason, and I need to hope for a miracle. I have one additional player remaining, so all I have to say is, "Go Hilltoppers!" If Lee scores 30 in the next game, or advances to the next round, I'm right back in it. Poseur could still get back in it, but he'll have to do it the hard way, by his players simply manning up and scoring more than Jason's.

Football stuff: I had a request for a Spring Football update. LSU has been on football hiatus due to Spring Break, but they return to practice today. There will be updates in the future.

Super-Late Round 1 Results

Like I said, I was at a funeral in my wife's family this weekend. I was away from home all weekend, and I did not have my spreadsheets. As a result, I was unable to start compiling results of the tournament until this morning. I realize it's hopelessly out of date, but here are the results from round 1.

Richard (me): 275 points, 6 players eliminated
Poseur: 280 points, 6 players eliminated
Daniel: 277 players, 5 players eliminated
froberts: 225 points, 7 players eliminated*
Rollie: 275 points, 7 players eliminated
Scott: 192 points, 7 players eliminated
Jason: 253 points, 4 players eliminated

The number of players eliminated is as important as the number of points scored at this point, so while me, Poseur, Daniel, and Rollie look really strong in points scored, Jason may be the player with the advantage at this point because he has two more players still playing at this point. I think it's a two-player race at this point between Daniel and Jason, although one quick look at the brackets shows that Daniel has 5 players left in the sweet 16 while Jason has 7. Advantage Jason.

I'll get to the rest of it tomorrow.

froberts made a mistake and listed Josh Akognon as a player for Mt. St. Mary, a 16-seed. Akognon is actually a 14-seed player for Cal St. Fullerton. As a result, that slot is disqualified for froberts and it will be treated as if he did not pick a 16-seed player.

Day Two - Cinderella Gets to Jitterbug

It's not that Day One lacked drama. It's just that aside for about one hour of basketball, it didn't quite deliver. Belmont taking Duke to the limit was dramatic, even if it didn't have a happy ending. Day Two had the happy endings. Just because I'm a firm believer in overanalyzing things, let's jump to way to broad conclusions from each upset. The big boys will have their day in a week, but the first weekend is about the little guy.

LESSON ONE: Stephen Curry is awesome.
Actually, we knew that going in. Curry is one of those guys I am openly rooting for just so I can keep watching him play. He is practically automatic from anywhere on the court. Gonzaga got screwed with this draw.

LESSON TWO: The committee hates and despises mid-majors
Gonzaga v. Davidson. Western Kentucky v. Drake. Butler v. South Alabama. Pretty much every mid-major people were excited to see got matched up with another mid-major power. It's like the draw was designed to get rid of the mid-majors as quickly as possible. But first, we got incredible drama from two of those games. Actually, the WKU game kind of sucked until Drake made a spectacular late run to force overtime, build a lead in OT, only to lose it on a desperation three at the buzzer. How would you rather lose?

LESSON THREE: Clemson was overrated.
Not to call out Clemson, but come on. They beat Duke ad suddenly people act like thy are a great team. They were the fifth best ACC team at best for most of the season, only to benefit from Maryland's late season collapse. They win one game against Duke and suddenly they ar a 5-seed and a popular pick to make noise? Why? That was their first real impressive win all season. Really, they weren't that much better than Villanova.

LESSON FOUR: The SEC stinks.
Tennessee struggled with American but put them away late. Mississippi State, admittedly, looked good against Oregon. Arkansas beat the floundering Hoosiers, which just about any team in the field could have done. End of good news. The SEC took it on the chin in round one , as they really weren't all that great in victory and the defeats piled up. Vanderbilt led the way with an absolute thrashing at the hands of Siena, in a game that was never even competitive. They didn't get upset, they got beat.

LESSON FIVE: Tampa rocks.
Four games, four upsets. UConn and Drake went down in the morning. Then Vandy and Clemson at night. Now, I hate the pod system, but this is something that could only happen because of the pods. Four first round games, all resulting in upsets could only happen in a venue with two 4-13 and two 5-12 games.

LESSON SIX: Let's not get too comfy with Cinderella just yet.
OK, 1st round wins are nice, and there's going to be at least two 12 or 13 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen thanks to Tampa, but let's take a quick step back. Before the tourney, I pointed out there isn't a hell of a lot of difference between teams seeded 5 through 12. The gap is really those top three seed lines. Know how many of the teams seeded 1 through 3 lost? That's right, zero. The decimation of the bracket helps the power teams, and we're still on course for the heavyweights to assert their will. The next two days go a long way towards showing whether this is another Year of the Upset, or whether this was just clearing the way for the top seeds.

NCAA Tourney - Day One

I hate Duke.  I hate them hate them them.  There probably is not a single team in all of sports that I dislike more than I dislike the Duke basketball team.  Maybe the New York Yankees.  Well, probably the New York Yankees, but other than them, I hate Duke more than anyone.  My hatred of them increased just a little last night.  

Belmont had them beat until they played a truly horrific final 30 seconds of the game to give the game away to Duke.  With the ball and a one point lead, they failed to get off a good shot because they dithered around for too long before starting the offense.  Then, Gerald Henderson of Duke (their only good offensive player on the day) got the ball and Belmont decided not to play any defense against him, allowing him to score the go-ahead basket on an easy layup.

Belmont got the ball back, got off another bad shot, but managed to get a tie ball on the rebound giving themselves the ball back, down by one with four seconds to play.  On the inbounds play off of a timeout, apparently someone on the floor didn't know the play, because the inbounds man threw up a lob and no one was there to get it.  It was not obvious who was the intended recipient of the pass.  Duke gave them one last chance by failing to hit a free throw, but the desperation heave at the end didn't fall.

Duke escapes and moves on, free to piss me off again another day.

Not a lot of surprises in the first day.  Right now, it's looking like mostly chalk.  The one substantial exception (9-seed beating 8-seed does not count) is K-State's victory over USC. Those of you who had Michael Beasley (23 points, advancing) on your team had a good night.  Those of us who picked an 11-seed other than K-state lose out, as Kentucky and Baylor both bowed out of the tournament.

Those of you who had Dionte Christmas (3 points, eliminated) and/or Michael Jenkins (2 points, eliminated) had a bad night.  Those of you who had all three of those had a mixed night.  Rollie Fingers made a great call and picked up Josh Akognon off of 14-seed Cal St. Fullerton.  He lost out, but scored 31 in the process.

I did alright.  I'm behind the leaders, but I'm still in it.  I probably need to get some upsets to go my way though, or I'll probably end up substantially behind the leaders.  Go San Diego and Western Kentucky and Arkansas and Mississippi State!

No one had a worse day than Scott, in my opinion.  He had Christmas and Jenkins, scoring a total of 5 points before exiting.  He had his 1-seed player play and only got 5 points out of it.  Only the pick of Michael Beasley relieved some of the horror, but now Beasley has to go against his pick for #3, so one or the other of those guys is getting eliminated Saturday, meaning that in order to get additional benefit from his 11-seed pick, he has to get his 3-seed pick eliminated.

I won't reveal the points or standings quite yet, because they only really matter at the end of a total round.  Not everyone has had the same number of players play.  Poseur, Rollie, and Scott have had 9 players play so far, while Jason has only had 6 players play.  Jason's behind those guys, but obviously he is likely to catch up.  

Actually, Jason is in really solid position right now.  His 3- through 7-seeds have all played, and he has escaped the big upset, except for K-state over USC, which bit everybody and doesn't hurt Jason because he has Beasley as well.  Moreover, Beasley is the only one of his lower-seeded players to have played already, meaning Jason has a lot of opportunity to gain from some upsets.  If I had to pick one player in really good shape, it would be Jason, but a lot of people are in decent shape and can catch up with a little luck.  As for me, however, most of the things that could happen to help me also would help Jason.  I need to root for American to take down Tennessee, which seems like just about as unlikely as a 16-seed beating a 1-seed.

You probably won't get a detailed breakdown from me tomorrow morning, as I will be unavoidably traveling this evening and will be away from home tomorrow to attend a funeral in my wife's family.  If anyone else is actually keeping up with the scoring, feel free to post the points and standings tomorrow morning.  Otherwise, I will take care of it when I get a chance.

The Tournament Begins

Today is the day. It's one of the greatest days of the year for college sports fans. It's the day the college basketball NCAA tournament begins.

I got a slew of entries into our game yesterday. Daniel (my bro), Rollie Fingers, and Jroberts all input teams here. Scott and Uberschuck sent in their teams by email. That gives us 7. there is still time to put your team in, but you better get it in before 11:00am central time. If you want to be a late addition, compose your team and add it to a comment to this post, or you can email me at richard_ualaw@yahoo.com.

Some observations:

• Despite Poseur's conclusion that everyone would pick Stephen Curry of Davidson, two players declined to pick him.
• Only OJ Mayo of USC is common to all teams, meaning that the #6 seed is basically removed from the game as everyone will score the same points in the 6 spot.
• So far, 4 different players from #1 seeds have been picked, with two coming from UCLA and none coming from Kansas
• Other very popular players include Brook Lopez of Stanford (5 teams), Luke Harangody of Notre Dame (5 teams), Michael Beasley (4 teams, which I think is incredible considering EVERYONE picked a player off of his first round opponent), and Jamont Gordon of Mississippi State (4 teams).

Just so everyone knows the emailed teams, Jason's team is:
1) Tyler Hansbrough, UNC
2) Chris Lofton, TN
3) Brook Lopez, Stanford
4) Sam Young, Pitt
5) Luke Harangody, Notre Lame
6) OJ Mayo, usc
7) Joe Alexander, WV
8) JaMont Gordon, MSU
9) Sonny Weems, Ark.
10) Stephen Curry, Davidson
11) Michael Beastly, KSU
12) Courtney Lee, WKy
13) Edwin Ubiles, Sienna
14) Reggie Larry, BSU
15) Garrison Carr, American
16) Jeremy Goode, MSM

Scott's team is:
1) Darren Collison G, UCLA
2) Chris Lofton G, UTenn
3) Trevon Hughes G, Wis
4) Shan Foster G, Vandy
5) K.C. Rivers G, Clemson
6) O.J. Mayo G, USC
7) Joe Alexander F, WVU
8) Jamont Gordon G, Moo St.
9) Sonny Weems, Our Kansas
10) Jerryd Bayless G, ARIZ
11) Michael Beasley F, KSU
12) Dionte Christmas G, Temple
13) Michael Jenkins G, Winthrop
14) Sundiata Gaines G, UGA
15) Drake Reed F, AP
16) Chris Vann G, Main Stream Media

Get Your Teams In

Alright, people.  I know you're out there.  Put in your teams for the NCAA Tournament Fantasy Game, described below.  We only have one other player so far.  Last year, we had 5 players including myself.  Readership is bigger this year, so there's no excuse for not having a few more players.

The winner last year was Scott, who hasn't put in a team yet.  So far, it's just myself and Poseur.  To recap the rules:

• Pick one player from each seed level, giving your team 16 players in total.  
• The play-in game does not count, and you may post conditional 16-seed players or wait until after the play-in game to choose.
• Count the points scored by your team.  The team with the most wins.

It's that simple people.

----------------------------

Yesterday, there was a lot of chatter complaining about the brackets.  I understand everyone complains about brackets (except me, because I don't know enough to complain), but some of the complaints were just plain silly:

Complaint #1: Tennessee got screwed by being placed in a bracket with the #1 overall seed, UNC.

The gist of this complaint is that Tennessee, who was playing for a #1 seed going into the conference tournament, got bumped all the way down the #8 seed overall, as evidenced by being placed in the same region with #1 Overall seed North Carolina.

First, I really don't think they seed teams among brackets with the exception of assigning a #1 overall seed and assigning #s 64 and 65 for a play-in.  Other than that, I don't think they really do that, so I don't think anyone decided that Tennessee was the lowest #2 seed.

Second, Tennessee gets to play close to home to start the tournament.  They start in Birmingham, Alabama, where their fans will likely pack the house.  Then they'll go to Charlotte, North Carolina where they will be outnumbered, but not overwhelmingly, by North Carolina fans.  They could have been put in another region and have to start in Anaheim, California before going to Houston, Texas or Washington, DC and then Phoenix, Arizona.

Third, if your goal is to win the National Championship, which is Tennessee's goal, I think the only approach you can take is to not care about the draw and just take whatever comes at you.  If Tennessee is going to win, they are going to have to play several very good teams, and they'll get to the dreaded North Carolina in their fourth game.  Heck, it's entirely possible that neither team will make it that far.  Just play your bracket and stop complaining.

If your goal is to make it the Sweet 16 or the Elite 8, you can complain about a tough draw.

Complaint #2:  Arizona State didn't make it.

I know the arguments, and they make a certain amount of sense.  Fact is, though, Arizona State played their way to the bubble and put themselves in a position to be left out.  If they had won another game or two, they would have been in.  If they had been let in the way they are, they would have been one of the two or three last teams.  Whoop-dee-doo.

Complaint #3: Mid-majors are playing each other.

OK, I actually agree with this one.  Everyone's favorite thing about the tournament is seeing little guys take down big guys.  Everyone wants to see Gonzaga take down a Big East, Big XII or Big X team.  No one wants to see Gonzaga take down Davidson.  It makes no sense to engineer the brackets to have Gonzaga playing Davidson, Butler playing South Alabama, Georgia playing Xavier (which counts as two little guys against each other), and Drake playing Western Kentucky.  It's just bad television.  

Annual NCAA Tourney Fantasy Game

This is the annual GeauxTuscaloosa NCAA Tournament Fantasy Game. The rules are simple.

• Choose one player from each seed level. T.g., one player from a 16-seed, one player from a 15-seed, etc.
• Make sure your team is entered before the first game starts on Thursday. The play-in game does not count, but you can wait until its results are in if you wish.
  
• Count the points scored by your team over the course of the tournament.
• The winner receives $150 million.*
  

16. Deonte Huff, Portland State
15. Garrison Carr, American
14. Sundiata Gaines, Georgia
13. Brandon Johnson, San Diego
12. Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky
11. Ramel Bradley, Kentucky
10. Stephen Curry, Davidson
9. Sonny Weems, Arkansas
8. Jamont Gordon, Mississippi State
7. Joe Alexander, West Virginia
6. OJ Mayo, USC
5. Luke Harangody, Notre Dame
4. Shan Foster, Vandy
3. Brook Lopez, Stanford
2. DJ Augustin, Texas
1. Tyler Hansbrough, UNC

My hardest choices were 8 and 9. I really wanted to pick Jamont Gordon from Mississippi State because I think he's the kind of player who can excel in the tournament, and I think Memphis is very vulnerable, but I didn't like anyone from the 9 seeds other than Leunen from Oregon, and Oregon plays MSU in the first round. I didn't want to play my 8 and 9 seeds against each other, because I wanted the chance to have both of them play a second round game. Not having an option I liked at the 9 seed, I ended up having to change my 8-seed.

Then I decided I didn't like having my 8-seed and 9-seed players both going against SEC competition, so I switched both of them up, returning Jamont Gordon to my team and adding Sonny Weems. This could end up backfiring horribly.

I had to pick Sundiata Gaines just because you have to root for Georgia. It's incredible what they managed to accomplish. I honestly think everyone in the world was rooting for Georgia today with the possible exception of the Arkansas players, and I bet even they had mixed feelings.

Get your teams in before the games start, and I'll keep up with everyone's stats.

*All cash prizes are "virtual", meaning they do not exist. If this is not clear enough, it means there is no cash prize. All that is at stake is pride.

Round 4

It's over.

Richard: 603 points, 0 players remaining
Scott: 598 points, Corey Brewer remaining
Poseur: 517 points, Jeff Green remaining
Jason: 502 points, Jeff Green remaining, mathematically eliminated
Daniel: 418 points, Jeff Green remaining, mathematically eliminated

Poseur's still mathematically in it, but not really. He has to hope Green scores 86 points in the next two games to have any chance at all. That's virtually impossible, and even if he did it, he would still probably lose. Even if Green scored 106 points, he'd still probably lose.

I'm still mathematically in it, but I have virtually no chance. I have to hope that Corey Brewer is completely shut down, because Scott is only 5 points away from me, and I have no players remaining. If Brewer scores 6 points, I'm toast.

So, it's all Scott. Hell, I doubt I'm even going to watch the rest of it. I've only watched it in spots lately anyway. It just hasn't been that fun. I guess Georgetown has the best opportunity to actually make this interesting.

Good luck to the Lady Tigers, currently leading #1 seed UConn by 10 in the first half.

Round 3

After 3 rounds of basketball, here is the scoring:

Richard: 585 points, Brandon Rush remaining
Scott: 584 points, Corey Brewer remaining
Poseur: 487 points, Julian Wright and Jeff Green remaining
Jason: 472 points, Mario Chalmers and Jeff Green remaining
Daniel: 394 points, Mario Chalmers and Jeff Green remaining

I think it's probably a 2-man race at this point, even though Poseur and Jason have an extra player. Scott and I simply have too much of a head start. Poseur got hosed by UNLV's Wendell White and Kansas's Julian Wright only getting 7 points each. He lost ground in a round where he could have gained ground.

Poseur and Jason will close the gap in the next round, but they really need for Jeff Green to go off for 30 points or so if they want to start catching up. Poseur needs Julian Wright to start putting up more points than Brewer and Rush as well.

Focusing on the top 2, Scott and I are separated by a razor thin margin, and I think it's obvious that the winner will come down to whichever of Kansas or Florida advances the farthest. If they both play the same number of games, there's no way to predict who will win it.

Round 2

Lots of exciting games on Saturday. Very few exciting games on Sunday. And after four days of tournament action, there is still no narrative other than "Goliath slays David" and "David almost beat him." Everybody seeded above 7th is out and only 2 of the 16 teams remaining are seeded above 5th.

I guess one potential talking point is how the dreaded 12-5 matchup not only failed to produce any upsets, but actually ended up propelling the 5th seeds to be 3-1 in the second round.

Anyway, the tourney pool sits as follows:

Richard: 519 points; Brandon Rush of Kansas, Acie Law of TAMU, Chris Lofton of Tennessee, and Derrick Byars of Vandy remaining.

Scott: 519 points; Corey Brewer of Florida, Acie Law of TAMU, Chris Lofton of Tennessee, and Derrick Byars of Vandy remaining.

Poseur: 445 points. Julian Wright of Kansas, Jeff Green of Georgetown, Acie Law of TAMU, and Wendell White of UNLV remaining.

Jason: 411 points; Mario Chalmers of Kansas, Jeff Green of Georgetown, Acie Law of TAMU, and Chris Lofton of Tennessee remaining.

Daniel: 357 points; Mario Chalmers of Kansas, Jeff Green of Georgetown, and Acie Law of TAMU remaining.

We have a tie at the top between me and Scott. Daniel is mathematically eliminated because every player he has is shared by Jason, who is currently ahead of him. Jason really has his back to the wall. He's over 100 points behind me and shares two players with me, plus he has a player who is on the same team as one of my players.

Poseur is still in it, but he has to hope that Tennessee and Vandy get eliminated quickly, and that UNLV and Georgetown advance far. If that happens, he can make up the 74 points that separate him from me and Scott. Fortunately for him, Vandy plays Georgetown in the Sweet 16. This game will go a long way to deciding if Poseur can get back in it.

If Poseur can't make up the difference, it comes down to me and Scott. We are currently tied and we have the same number of players remaining. Not only that, but 3 of our 4 players are shared, meaning it will come down to who gets more points as this tournament rolls on: Corey Brewer or Brandon Rush.

Rock Chalk Jayhawk!

Fouling

Watching the end of the UVA-Tennessee game just now, and the Xavier-Ohio State game yesterday, I am reminded of the part of basketball that I really despise.

End of game fouling.

Every team does it. When they're behind late in the game, they foul members of the opposing team in order to stop the clock, hope they miss the free throws, and get the ball back. It makes the end drag on forever all the while giving the viewer the joy of watching a lot of standing around, with the occasional uncontested 15-foot shot.

It's viewer Kryptonite.

What is the name of that type of foul they almost never call in these situation? Oh yes, it's called "intentional foul". Yesterday, after Greg Oden bodyslammed the Xavier player in order to extend the game, the announcers discussed whether it should have been called an intentional foul. Ultimately they decided that it just wasn't rough enough to be called an intentional foul.

Uh, what? Isn't it called "intentional foul"? Here's the definition of "intentional", according to Dictionary.com:

1.done with intention or on purpose; intended: an intentional insult. Antonym: accidental.

Where does "hard" or "rough" appear in that definition? Nowhere. If the foul is done on purpose, it is "intentional", if the word is given its ordinary meaning. In my opinion, every one of these fouls, hard or not, would be called an intentional foul, giving the foulee two free throws and the ball out of bounds. Instead, these are almost NEVER called intentional fouls, even though EVERYONE KNOWS that they're done intentionally. Even the announcers say things like, "They have to foul now," when the appropriate time comes.

It is doubly painful that the failure to call Oden's foul "intentional" ultimately gave Ohio State a chance to win a game they should have lost, and they ultimately won it.

Enforcing the rule properly would have the double benefit of a) enforcing the rules in a way that makes sense, and b) discouraging activity that makes for painfully boring television.

Round 1

After criticizing Tubby Smith yesterday for not putting the ball in the hands of his best players, he went and played Joe Crawford 36 minutes, played Ramel Bradley 33 minutes, and played Randolph Morris as much as his late foul trouble would allow. The result? A big win against a team a lot of people expected to advance past Kentucky. Will he do it again against Kansas, or will he be playing Lukasz Orbzut and Perry Stevenson a combined 25 minutes and simply beg Kansas to blow him out?

Let's look at the results of our contest after round 1.

Scott: 294 points, 10 players remaining
Me: 293 points, 10 players remaining
Jason: 281 points, 7 players remaining
Poseur: 270 points, 9 players remaining
Daniel: 247 points, 6 players remaining

Those "players remaining" stats should reflect that everyone picked Kevin Durant and Acie Law, meaning those guys will have no ultimate impact on this game. Therefore, you should go ahead and subtract 2 from everybody's number.

Daniel had a tough round, and he needs his remaining players to go far in order to get back into it. In particular, he needs for Zabian Dowdell to blow up, because that's the only player he has that Jason does not.

Scott appears to be in the driver's seat at least for now. He's one point ahead of me, and we have a whopping 8 players remaining in common. The only differences are that he has Joakim Noah and Nick Fazekas of Nevada while I have Brandon Rush and Jason Dudley of Boston College. Everyone else will be a wash between me and Scott.

I thought I was sitting pretty when Illinois was beating Virginia Tech by 13. If Illinois hadn't forgotten how to play basketball, I'd be sitting with 11 player remaining, and everyone other than Scott would be down another player. It would be basically a two-man race at that point, and I'd have the upper hand by having the extra player. But alas, Virginia Tech forgot that the object of the game was to score points, and as a result Poseur is still very much in it, though he will be playing from behind.

The tourney itself has been fairly exciting despite the distinct lack of upsets. The dreaded 5-12 matchup produced exactly 0 wins for the 12 seed, and only two double-digit seeds actually won. I'm not going to do the research, but that has to be some kind of a record. Yeah, it's not as good as past years, but maybe VCU and Winthrop can make things exciting for another round or two before we get down to the very best teams.

Interactivity

Thanks to Poseur for giving my faithful readers some excellent analysis of the tourney field. Now, it's time we get interactive. Here's the game:

1. Pick one player from one of the four teams on each seed-line. I.e., pick one player from among the four 16 seeds, one player from among the four 15 seeds, etc.

2. Do so before the first game starts.

3. Every point the players you pick scores over the course of the tournament (hint: pick players on teams you think may advance far) is a point for you as well.

4. Compare at the end. Brag or hang your head in shame.

Here's my team:

16: Trey Johnson, Jack St.
15: Calvin Watson, N. Tex.
14: Mark Zoller, Penn.
13: Jamar Wilson, Albany
12: Warren Carter, Illinois
11: BA Walker, VCU
10: Nate Funk, Creighton
9: Drew Nietzel, Mich. St.
8: Randolph Morris, Kentucky
7: Jason Dudley, BC
6: Derrick Byars, Vandy
5: Chris Lofton, Tenn.
4: Kevin Durant, UT
3: Acie Law, TAMU
2: Alondo Tucker, Wisconsin
1: Brandon Rush, Kansas

Coming soon: more actual content from me.

Bracket Breakdown: South

THE ONE-SEED: OHIO ST
The Thad Five is just fun to say. Lost in the Greg Oden hype is that the other four freshmen are pretty damn good. Conley and Cook both average 10 points a game, meaning the Buckeyes didn't just get the best college center they got a backcourt. Ivan Harris is the kind of senior leader which make these freshmen classes work.

How you interpret OSU's resume says a lot about you, more than it does Ohio St. If you're a glass half-full kind of guy, only three teams beat the Buckeyes: UNC, Florida, and Wisconsin. This just in, those teams are good. Or, if you're glass half-empty kind of guy, you might point out that OSU beat Tennessee and then the Big Ten, which kind of sucks this year. You mean, Ohio St beat up on Purdue and Michigan? Color me impressed.

I think you know what kind of guy I am: the Big Ten sucks this year. The Buckeyes are really good, but they have had trouble with athletic teams who can run, which don't exist in the Midwest, but exist in this bracket. Ohio St, contrary to popular belief, beats you with its guard play, and this just in: Virginia's guards are better. Though they don't have that Oden guy.

THE BOTTOM HALF
Memphis played exactly five tourney teams this year. They lost three of them, and needed OT to beat Gonzaga. That leaves them with one really good one: Kentucky, which ain't as good as it used to be. Which is my wy of saying that I'm not sold on them. They do have some studs on the perimeter, but have problems with physical teams. And Texas A&M is about as physical as they come. Memphis can't be happy with the prospect of playing them in the state of Texas.

That's a nice homecourt advantage, but maybe not as cushy as Louisville getting A&M in Lexington. Lousiville is a hard team to beat, even harder at home. So, if Memphis is lucky, they won't even get the Aggies. Nevada's season is absolutely coming apart at the seams, which is not good news for Memphis, because that means they might get Creighton, another tough defensive team that plays incredibly physical.

THE 5-12 UPSET
Long Beach has four guys who can absolutely bomb from beyond the arc. They have almost no post game, and they are almost hopeless in a half-court game. The 49ers (Can I call them the Dirtbags? That's the baseball team's nickname) like to run to make up for their weaknesses, and they can only win if its a track meet and becomes a contest of who can hit the most shots.

Enter Tennessee. The Vols lack a post game themselves and they hate to play a half-court game. Tennessee wants to run and make it a contest of athleticism. Bruce Pearl has been trying to transform this into a defensive club comfortable with any pace, but that hasn't happened. The Vols aren't built to exploit the 49ers gaping weaknesses.

BRACKET BUSTERS
Thad Matta's old team, Xavier is a tough team, but they lack any post presence which kind of makes an upset of Ohio State unlikely. Creighton, however, are a bunch of mean bastards. If you can score 70 points, you deserve a medal. And Nate Funk is the kind of guy who can carry your offense. They might be one of the toughest outs in the tourney and seem built to beat running team like Memphis, who haven't played a good team this calendar year.

Other than that, the pickings are slim. Stanford is a weak selection, and they get Louisville in Kentucky. That's a tall order. Albany is not a real talented team, but they are gutty. Unfortunately, so is Virginia. In fact, all of the lower seeds just seem to be a worse version of the top seeds. If a bracket is going to go chalk, it could be this one.

THE PICK: TEXAS A&M
I think you've picked up on the fact I'm not a fan of Memphis. I think they pose almost no threat to Ohio State. And OSU is a really good team and they are remarkably well-coached. Freshmen teams make me uncomfortable, but if one can make the Final Four, it's one coached by Thad Matta. I'm just not comfortable picking them. Which pretty much leaves me with Virginia and Texas A&M. Virginia has guts, but guts can't play the post. Texas A&M has guts, but they also have Acie Law, who by tournament's end, may be the Texas player everyone in the nation is talking about. He is pretty much the definition of a clutch player, and if anyone can carry his team to the Final Four in what looks to be the weakest bracket, it is Law. Besides, going back to my rationale for Wisconsin: defense doesn't go cold.

Bracket Breakdown: East

THE ONE-SEED: UNC
Thank God Kevin Durant turned down the Heels or else they would be even more loaded. They shoot 50% from the floor. They have six McDonald's All-Americans. Their average margin of victory is 19.7 points. They average more possessions than anyone in the nation, 2nd in assists, 2nd in rebounding, and 10th in assist to turnover ratio. But you don't need me to tell you that the Heels can ball.

So what's the problem? The team is so loaded, even Roy Williams is complaining about chemistry. It's March and he hasn't figured out his rotation yet. And while I'm not the kind of guy to really buy the whole chemistry argument, as its usually a cover to a load of BS, there may be something to it here. UNC's smallest margin of victory is five. When the game is close, the Heels lose. That could just be a function of great teams winning by blowout, but it could be a function that UNC lacks a go-to guy. And no one really believes the Heels are going to get through the bracket without playing a close game, especially with Texas and Georgetown lurking. Hell, Michigan St is a tough out lurking in the round of 32.

The dream matchup is the talented waves of blue going against Durant in the Sweet Sixteen. Texas is a one-man show (actually a two-man show with Augustin running the point). Unlike the Heels, everyone knows exactly who is getting the ball in a close game. The question is, can Texas keep it close?

THE BOTTOM HALF
Georgetown is just sitting there, lurking. Since January 13th, they have lost exactly one game. They didn't just beat up on the Big East, they killed it. They shoot just as well as Carolina (50% from the field), only they play a lot better defense. Jeff Green is also one of the official bad asses in this tourney. Sure, Durant is a better scorer, but Green is a better defender and a more polished player. OK, Durant is better, but Green might be the only player in the country who can shut him down at least a little bit.

Nothing personal to other teams in the bottom half, but it'll take the Hoyas having the off night of off nights, which doesn't seem likely, to prevent a showdown with UNC or Texas in the Elite Eight. Washington St is a nice story, but they are a tough, defense-oriented halfcourt team which Georgetown can absolutely physically dominate. You want to go halfcourt against the Hoyas? Vanderbilt can shoot the three, but they lack size and openly admit they lack athleticism to compete. Boston College isn't the same team without Sean Williams.

THE 5-12 UPSET
I'll quote coach Tim Floyd on his USC team, "We're an NIT team." How does a bubble team have essentially one good week and get a five-seed? They start a guy who skipped his senior year of high school at point. Pruitt missed a third of the year due to academic troubles and doesn't look like the same player. And guard play is a team strength. This team is beyond flawed.

Arkansas has size in spades. It's a team that uses its size to bully offenses. And considering USC big weakness is its inability rebound, Arkansas is perhaps the last team they wanted to face. The Hogs took about the whole season off, but once Stan Heath's job was on the line, they started winning. Honestly, the Hogs are the better team. The question is whether they will decide to show up. This is the best shot for a 12-seed.

BRACKET BUSTERS
Arkansas ran out of gas in the SEC tourney, but they are a strong defensive club with lots of depth. Not only can they knock off USC, but they are a threat to Texas as well, as SEC Defensive Player of the Year Steven Hill (who is 7'1") will draw the Durant assignment. George Washington is more athletic than Vanderbilt, and their zone forces tons of bad turnovers and destroys bad shooting teams. While Georgetown is a great shooting team, Washington St is not. GW is a real threat to make the Sweet 16.

Oral Roberts is an interesting upset pick. First off, they beat Kansas though they did lose to powers Tulsa and Oakland. Tutt and Green are senior studs, both of whom have scored 2000 points apiece. Tutt can drain the three and is a really good player, but Caleb Green is the real stud. He's a three-time conference player of the year, and he's a stud power forward who is 0.7 rebounds away from averaging a double-double. How often does a 14-seed have the two best players on the floor when they go up against a 3-seed? I'm guessing never.

THE PICK: GEORGETOWN
There are three great teams in the bracket, and that means one of them gets to wait for the other two to play. That's just a massive advantage. But here's the thing: Georgetown is better than Texas and UNC anyway. They don't need the added advantage, but they got it anyway. Texas is too much of a one-man show, and they often descend into just watching Durant. Well, except for Augustin who makes plays in between boatloads of turnovers. Texas' two starting guards are both under six-feet, I'm sure that won't matter against a physical team like Georgetown. Well, if they can beat UNC, who has more talent than they know what to do with. Quite literally.

Bracket Breakdown: West

THE ONE-SEED: KANSAS
Kansas has the reputation of being tourney chokers. Considering the Jayhawks have lost their last three tourney games, the last two in the first round to double-digit seeds, it's not an unfair rep. But they also are perhaps the deepest, most talented team in the country. They return five starters from last year, and have two freshmen who each average about 10 PPG. Picking out the best player is difficult, I lean towards Brandon Rush, but can easily make a case for Julian Wright or Mario Chalmers. Kansas is loaded.

They remind me a lot of previous champs who had been underachievers before winning a title. Florida lost to a lower-seeded team in the five tourneys before their run, three in the first round and all before the Sweet Sixteen. UNC lost in the round of 32 before their title run, which was better than the two straight tourneys they had missed previously. OK, UConn didn't have that rep. But Syracuse? They were like the poster children for tourney flameouts. Same with Arizona before their run.

The point is, last year is last year. And it can even serve as a good motivator. There is nothing Kansas can't do. They have great players everywhere, and they can beat you inside or outside. Usually, both. They won 14 of their last 15 games, and nine of those were by 18 or more points. Kansas isn't just winning, they are killing teams.

THE BOTTOM HALF
The name of the game is defense. UCLA does not lose if it keeps you to under 70 points. The thing is, the same is true of Pittsburgh. I wonder why that is true. Maybe its because Ben Howland built both programs. Of course, UCLA has more talent than the Panthers, which is probably going to be problem if the two match up to face their mirror image. There is no stylistic difference between these two teams, which simply want to batter you into submission.

Duke lurks at the bottom of the bracket. And while this isn't Duke, this team is still pretty good. Only two teams have really blown out the Devils (Maryland and UNC... and boy, that was fun to type), and they have also had success playing defense. No one will confuse them with Pitt or UCLA, but Duke is a pretty good defensive squad, and if they could ever find a reliable offensive go-to guy, they could be one of the tougher outs in the tourney. Then again, Paulus is not the best ballhandler in the world, and VCU loves to press. They are vulnerable to the upset.

THE 5-12 UPSET
Virginia Tech is one of the most infuriating teams in the bracket. They start two senior guards, and Deron Washington is a third year starter as junior who has blossomed into perhaps the best player in the ACC. They play great defense, and like to apply pressure and score points in transition. The knock? This is the most erratic team in the bracket. They followed up their wins over UNC by losing to Florida St by nine and NC State by 25. They lost to Marshall. And Western Michigan. They followed up a three-game ACC win streak by dropping two games by a combined 32 points. You get the idea. The Hokies are not to be trusted.

Illinois doesn't exactly inspire fear either. Their best win is Michigan St, and they only have four wins over tourney teams (two against Indiana and Miami of Ohio). Also, they can't score. Illinois relies on, you guessed it, defense. Since February 1, they have allowed a team to crack 60 points just once (a loss to Indiana on 2/10). Frazier and Pruitt form a solid inside-outside threat, but the team lacks depth. They'll win if they keep it a halfcourt game and prevent the Hokie guards from penetrating and drawing fouls. Then again, the Hokies suck at free throws.

BRACKET BUSTERS
Gonzaga is overseeded, but they are going back to their roots. They are a double digit seed that everyone has written off. Ravio is one of the best guards in the whole tournament, and can simply will his team to victory. And they still have goofy post players who hit three pointers. And in a region full of defensive studs, VCU's full court press will stand out.

And while not seeded as an upset team, no one is really talking up the Salukis. So let me do so. Southern Illinois is another extremely tough defensive team, but they are about the only team in the top half of the bracket who can stop the Jayhawks. There isn't much depth, but Tatum and Falker make a terrific inside-out combo (it's like talking about the other Illinois, eh?). And if they can avoid foul trouble, SIU can shut down anyone. What killed them against Creighton was the quick whistle and their inability to score points in bunches once down big. They are the kind of team that could punch Kansas right in the mouth. There just aren't those kind of defenses in the Big 12.

THE PICK: KANSAS
While I worked to find a reason to pick against the Gators, I can't even find one to pick against the Jayhawks other than history. The bottom half of the bracket should be an outright war, with teams physically punishing one another night in and night out, while Kansas only has to worry about a potential matchup with Southern Illinois, who Kansas has more talent than. Kansas has to beat the play-in winner, then Kentucky or Villanova, before they have to play one of the bruising defensive squads. UCLA has the homecourt advantage the whole way through, which counts for a lot, but will they still be standing? Pitt's not an east out. Gonzaga is a threat because they can gun. And Duke is still Duke, you want to write them off? If UCLA does manage to step through the brutal bottom half of the bracket, there will be a fairly fresh Kansas team there ready to blow them out of the gym. Life isn't fair.

Bracket Breakdown: The Midwest

THE ONE-SEED: FLORIDA
Yes, they return five starters from last year's title team. Yes, they can shoot lights out when they feel like it. Yes, Noah is really good. So are the other four starters. So, how do they manage to screw this up?

Firstly, the Gators turn the ball over. A lot. Everything flows through their guard play, and when Green and Humphrey have an off night, the team falls apart. That means teams, in order to pull the upset, need to pressure those guards nonstop. That means athletic guards who like to clog up those passing lanes. Gee, I wonder if any teams fit the bill... oh, look! There's Maryland! And Arizona! Both of those teams also have fairly credible frontcourts, a rarity in this bracket, dominated by backcourts. In fact, most of the teams in this bracket have downright lousy frontcourts. So ball pressure becomes even more important.

Secondly, everything went right last year. I don't see that happening again. winning the tournament requires a little luck, and getting lucky twice in a row is a tall order. Florida's due for some bad karma. And it's not like they have been dominant this season. Which leads us into the final point...

Focus. Florida has taken entire games off. Will they just turn it on for tourney? they seemed to do so for the SEC tourney, but then again, the SEC is not exactly Murderer's Row this year. There are a lot of senior-dominated teams in this region, and if Florida decides it deosn't feel like playing for ten minutes, that could be the opening teams need to beat them.

THE BOTTOM HALF
Could there be two more different teams than Oregon and Wisconsin? Wisconsin plays a frustratingly slow game. They play off those screens, use the whole shot clock, and then let Alando Tucker beat you, especially now that Brian Butch, their best post player, is out with an injury. Laying in wait is UNLV, a team with five seniors getting huge minutes. Exactly the kind of team that won't be frustrated by the most frustrating team on the planet.

Oregon, on the other hand, plays at a supersonic pace. They only have two players over 6'7" in the eight-man rotation, so they abhor halfcourt sets. And they shoot lights out. Which has to piss Notre Dame off. Notre Dame loves to push the ball and take lots of shots to make up for their undersized team. They are, fundamentally, a less talented version of Oregon. Besides, everyone and their best friend's sister is picking the Irish to lose to Winthrop, a team that might have the best frontcourt of this bracket outside of Florida.

THE 5-12 UPSET
Butler is freakishly small. They don't have a single player on the roster over 6'7". Which means they get absolutely killed on the boards. They lack speed and athleticism. AJ Graves is their best player and he doesn't even shoot 40% from the floor. Which may explain why the team ranks 192nd nationally in FG%. So what can they do? Play defense. Butler slows the game down to a painful crawl, making you earn every shot. They force you to make mistakes, while Butler makes none. They take care of the basketball and hit seemingly every free throw. They are the anti-Florida. ODU is also a tough defensive team, though they like to use their defense to set up the transition game, since their halfcourt offense isn't that stellar, and most teams just dare the Monarchs to shoot. Which means that ODU is well-built to pull upsets, just not Butler in particular. Butler won't make the careless mistakes to set up ODU's attack. This game could be the cure for insomnia.

BRACKET BUSTERS
Actually, the top teams in this bracket seem ripe for upset. Florida is talented by maddeningly unfocused, Wisconsin is lacking their post game, Oregon never had a post game to start with, Maryland relies heavily on its freshmen guards, Butler has little athleticism, and Notre Dame relies too much on shooters who cannot have a bad game. You get the point.

Arizona has a puncher's chance of beating Florida, as they are one of the most talented teams in the country, even though they have not shown it since November. Georgia Tech has Thaddeus Young, who will either take the Jackets to the Elite Eight or disappear in the first round. Davidson will usually have the best player on the court in Stephen Curry, and he can take over a game. While Miami(OH) isn't that great, they do have a great inside game, which may key an upset against Oregon though I doubt it. They'll trade threes with Miami's layups. And then there's Winthrop. A senior-dominated team which can flat out score. And, unlike Notre Dame (their first round opponent), they have a powerful inside game to go with all of those shooters. I'm wary of teams that get annointed as the upset team before they do anything, but it's easy to understand what the hype is about.

THE PICK: WISCONSIN
Florida is clearly the best team in this bracket, but there are some teams here that would give them fits if they manage to survive their first round landmines: Arizona has just as much talent, Maryland plays the perfect pressure to beat the Gators, and Butler and Wisconsin both would control the tempo. Hell, even UNLV would have shot given their penchant for forcing turnovers and senior lineup. I'm going to pick Wisconsin on my theory that defense doesn't go cold. And the way to beat Wisconsin is to exploit that huge hole they now have on the inside, but the only team in their half of the bracket that has a dangerous inside game is Winthrop. The Badgers should bludgeon their way to the final game against a Florida team that has survived matchup problem after matchup problem. However, given the relative strength of the 6-13 seeds, this region is one of the most likely to absolutely screw your bracket.