Deepest Conference in the NCAA?

I was listening to talk radio again yesterday, and I heard some actual substantive football talk for the first time in a while.  Tony Curry, who does not offend me generally, said that the SEC this year is the deepest conference in America, and the deepest it has been in a long time.

Really?  Well, Tony Curry is entitled to his opinion, and I'm not going to criticize his intelligence for it, but I think he's incorrect here.  In fact, I think the SEC is going to be significantly down from last year, when we had 10 teams end the season bowl-eligible.  I doubt we even flirt with that again.

Next year I think the SEC will have a decided underclass again, which is the usual state of affairs.  What made last year so special was that South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and Arkansas all put together pretty good teams that could beat anyone on any given day.  I expect that only Mississippi State will be able to do it again next year among that list.

South Carolina, Vandy, Kentucky, and Arkansas all lose a lot of good players and don't have the depth or recruiting to replace them.  In particular, let's look at Kentucky and Arkansas.  Kentucky loses its quarterback, 4 of its top 5 receivers, its top running back, and its best defensive player.  And those are just the guys I can identify immediately.  Kentucky's depth chart was not littered with 4- and 5-star players.  They are not going to be able to replace guys like Andre Woodson, Keenan Burton, Jacob Tamme, Raphael Little, and Wesley Woodyard.  Kentucky should take a step down.

Arkansas is even more obviously going to trend down.  They lose their only really dangerous skill position players.  Guys like Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Peyton Hillis, and Marcus Monk made this team dangerous.  Even with Marcus Monk mostly out of the equation last season, they still lose their top 4 receivers.  They have some young players who show promise, but you just don't lose that much productivity, plus install a new offense and a new defense, and expect not to lose a little bit.

Those two teams are clear candidates to take a step down, but Vandy and USC also lose productive players.  Vandy will have an offensive lineman selected in the first round of the NFL draft, and its best wide receiver in its history is going to the NFL as well.  USC no longer has anyone named Brinkley on the team, and its solid running back tandem is now a solo job.  They return dangerous wideout Kenny McKinley, but have never managed to find a consistent quarterback to throw to him.  South Carolina had a really good 2007 recruiting class, but they're probably a year away from making any real noise.

That's 4 teams out of 12 that I think are not going to be as good as they were last year, and I can only identify one team that I think will make a significant step up.  Ole Miss was a young team last year with a lot of talent at wide receiver, defensive line, and linebacker.  Their QB play should be much improved, and if they can find a running back to replace BenJarvis Green-Ellis (5-star recruit Enrique Davis is a good place to start looking).  Their young wide receivers made some serious plays last year, and if they get consistent quarterback play out of Jevan Snead they can have a very good offense.  I think Ole Miss is a bowl team, but they're really the only team to appear on the verge of stepping up.

We all know that Florida and Georgia look like they're going to be really good.  LSU looks like it will be just as good if our quarterback situation resolves in the way I hope it will.  Tennessee and Auburn both look solid, though perhaps less so than in years past.  Bama, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss look like they are likely to be bowl teams, but that's really about it.  I think the SEC will be good next year, but not as good as last year.

Meat Market

I'm finally doing my review of Meat Market: Inside the Smash Mouth World of College Football Recruiting by ESPN columnist Bruce Feldman.

If you are unfamiliar with the book, it follows one season in the Ole Miss Football program from the summer of 2006 until National Signing Day of 2007, focusing mostly on recruiting. It is also a profile of former Ole Miss coach Ed Orgeron. It chronicles the problems in his personal life, without apparently sugar-coating anything about his drinking and domestic violence issues. While it certainly does not paint Ed O as a saint, it is a generally affectionate portrayal of a man who struggled to get past his demons, and is struggling to build a program at Ole Miss.

First and foremost, the book is indispensable for anyone seeking to understand the shadowy world of college football recruiting. If that is something you are interested in, there has never been another book that would help you more, and I doubt there will be another one in the future. You find out from this book what the coaches look for in a football player, what the pitfalls are, and how the process works.

The narrative of the story is mostly a repeating cycle of struggle, hope, and finally disappointment. Over and over again. Ole Miss struggles. Something happens to increase the optimism. Then, the optimism is shattered by some profound disappointment. A typical subplot will have Orgeron spotting a talent somewhere (he fancies himself to have a true eye for talent), getting in contact with that person and getting some interest, only to find disappointment because of one of several possibilities:

• The kid's academics turn out to be a shambles;
• Closer inspection reveals the kid to not be as athletic as originally believed;
• They find out that the kid was calling them from jail (true story); or
• After they develop a close relationship with the kid, a bigger program finally notices him and the kid ends up forgetting about Ole Miss in order to go to Florida State, LSU, USC, Miami, or some other more prestigious program.

In this respect, only the ending rings hollow. Feldman closes the book not on the down notes that dominated the bulk of the narrative, but rather with hope that the 2007 season would produce good results, and that Orgeron would ultimately succeed. Unfortunately for the book's longevity, by the time I read the book just before Christmas, Ole Miss had finished a winless SEC season and Orgeron had already been fired. In that respect, it's a lot like a book that might have been written in the second or third year of Gerry Dinardo's tenure at LSU (may God rest his soul).

Despite this flaw, the book remains a fascinating read, both for its insight into recruiting and its insight into a man who will certainly remain a character in the college football world for some time.

If your interest lies strictly in LSU football, this book is still an important read. Eventual LSU commits T-Bob Hebert, Drake Nevis, Demetrius Byrd, and Steven Ridley make appearances in the story. Former LSU recruiting target Joe McKnight plays a very large role, and yes, Orgeron hedged his bets on McKnight by trying to push USC to recruit him harder to keep him away from LSU. He did this despite being rather confident that Ole Miss would get his signature (and it may very well be true that he would have gone to Ole Miss if USC hadn't turned up the heat).

Other characters from the 2007 recruiting class who make appearances include Louisiana kid Rishaw Johnson, Rolando Melancon, Florida kid Robert Marve (who went to Miami), and many other kids. Interestingly, though Rishaw Johnson wasn't discussed all that much in LSU circles, Orgeron apparently thought the kid was one of the best offensive line recruits in the country, and worthy of 5-star status. The services had him as a 3-star. History will tell us who was right on that one.

I guarantee you that if you are a regular reader of this blog, you would find Meat Market to be a worthwhile read. And even though it's about the 2007 season, I can foresee this book still being essential reading to would-be recruiting buffs in ten years time.

The Day After: Ole Miss

I was talking to Poseur earlier today, and our best description for that game was that Ole Miss kept it close enough for it to remain exciting, without ever really threatening to win it. I think that's exactly right, and while I certainly am a little befuddled by the play of our defense, which gave up 466 yards, I simply cannot condone complaining heavily about a road win in the conference. And, like I said not once, but twice, Ole Miss is really not that bad of a team.

Our offense looked, in my opinion, just about the best its looked all year. We did almost no long passing, but all of our running backs were effective. We ran at will, and were a threat to break off a big one every time. While we did no long passing, we still averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt, and Flynn finished the game with positive rushing yards, meaning sacks didn't hurt us that much.

For once, I can say our offense really carried us to victory.

But let's talk about the defense. Realize what we are dealing with here. One of our starting defensive tackles on opening day is injured and out for the year. Our best defensive tackle hasn't been 100% in a month. Our 3rd defensive tackle is also hurt. We've had to take the redshirt off a Drake Nevis in the middle of the season and play him significant minutes; not just in mop-up time either. For the last two games, our starting middle linebacker has been out. Our best cornerback reportedly still can't see right since injuring his eyes a month ago.

The point being, this is not the same defense that began the season. This is a defense that is seriously nicked up. And that's overlooking the fact that the guy we expected to be a starting defensive end has been suspended for the whole season so far for reasons unknown. In particular, the middle of our defense is hurting.

Also, it is no secret that athletic, running quarterbacks have given us fits for years, even when we're healthy. That certainly happened to us yesterday. Brent Shaeffah came into the game when we had gameplanned for a drop-back passer. We weren't ready for it, and we're vulnerable to it anyway. I don't really know why we've been so vulnerable to running quarterbacks, but it has certainly been an ongoing theme. Tyrod Taylor of Virginia Tech was able to move the ball the first time he ever played a college football game. Tim Tebow has hurt us for two years. Even Tulane's quarterback did a lot to us.

Last night's difficult performance by the defense is partially explained by that, but that certainly isn't the whole story. Shaeffer didn't complete a 40 yard pass on 3rd and 29 by running around. I think the problem is that our defense just isn't at athletic as advertised. We don't have a defensive lineman, or even a linebacker, capable of running down someone in the open field. Even Ali Highsmith seems to get outrun fairly easily. What's more, our safeties don't seem to have wide-receiver-calibre speed.

I know everyone says that we have athletes everywhere, and we do. We have good athletes everywhere, but our defense appears to have only one GREAT athlete, and he's not much help in chasing down a fast quarterback, because he plays in the middle of the field and weighs more than 300 pounds. Chad Jones is also a great athlete, I think, but he's only now getting regular playing time. Darry Beckwith may be our 3rd best athlete on defense, but of course he's been hurt.

Next week, we get a team with not just good, but GREAT running backs. I sure hope that we get Dorsey and Beckwith back for this, because we'll need them.

Did anyone notice Jarvis Jones, a true freshman, playing at right guard during key situations? He has been our backup left tackle, playing only in garbage time to this point. But when we needed a new right guard (for reasons unknown to me), we put in the true freshman instead of the normal backup (Max Holmes, I think).

This season is getting tenser again. We have a lot to lose, and a team ahead of us that isn't great, but sure is dangerous. There will be more on this later.

Later in the week: discussion of the Bama loss and discussion of how wide open the national championship still is.

Game Day: Ole Miss

Today, Mrs. GeauxTuscaloosa's family is coming over. They have tickets to the Bama-ULM game (they're Bama fans). They're bringing Mrs. GeauxTuscaloosa with them. You know what that means? I'll be home with the baby, just the two of us, watching the LSU-Ole Miss game. I'll also be making a pot of red beans and rice. The beans have been soaking since last night, and I'll start chopping the vegetables after everyone leaves the house to go to the Bama game.

So, that gives you an idea of my schedule, and here it is:

Now to 9:30am: Get the house cleaned up for guests. The living room must be vacuumed and the laundry must be at least off the floor. Also, I must make the syrup for mock-Toomer's Corner lemonade. Here's how you do it. Make a simple syrup and place in a large decanter, such as a tea jug. Squeeze the juice from a bunch of lemons into a second decanter (such as a measuring cup), doing your best to separate the seeds. Add a half-cup of syrup to 1/4 cup of lemon juice, and add water and ice until it's at your desired sweetness. Good stuff.

This is also one of the baby's LSU game days. If I haven't explained this yet, it's a good story. You must know that my wife is a Bama football fan (though she hates Bama basketball, and roots for Kentucky in basketball, which I still consider cheating). How we manage to get along is something of a miracle, but we manage.

Anyway, when we were pregnant, one of the things we discussed was how the baby would dress on game days in football season. Naturally, I wanted her to dress in LSU gear on game days. My wife, pregnant and not thinking clearly, wanted her to dress in Bama gear. A compromise had to be reached. We sat down and negotiated a schedule of game day gear for the baby. She could wear LSU gear on certain days, and would wear Bama gear on others. Given the need to compromise this, it actually worked out OK, because some of our biggest games coincided with weeks that Bama was playing some nobody, and vice versa. The biggest bone of contention was the week of the Auburn-LSU game and Bama-Tennessee game (same week). Ultimate she pulled the I'm- the- one- carrying- her- for- 9- months- and- not- sleeping- and- throwing- up- all- the- time- and- having- to- go- through- labor card on me (grossly unfair, I say), and she won that battle.

9:30am - 11:30am: Visit. Make lemonade for people. I imagine that at some point during this time, they will want to go to the campus to walk around. We will part ways at that time. If they leave before 11:30am, I will cut up my vegetables at that time. I'll start checking in on Ohio State at Michigan as well.

11:30am - 2:00pm: Watch Georgia vs. Kentucky on Lincoln-Financial, while kind of keeping up with Ohio State at Michigan. Georgia has been the best team in the SEC lately, blowing out Auburn and beating Florida by 12 in the last 3 weeks. It wasn't that long ago, however, that this team was completely dismantled by Tennessee (who isn't that great) and was almost beaten by Vandy. They've been hot lately, but I think it's thin and could conceivably all come crashing down at any time. Then again, they might not. Kentucky's late season swoon is something of a mystery. They looked really good against us, and then they lose to Florida and get blown out by MSU, before winning a close game against Vandy. Not long ago, this was a top 10 team. Now, they're an also-ran in the SEC East. I really anticipate this to be a good matchup. Everyone's hyping Georgia lately, but I'm not convinced they can keep it up. Everyone's down on Kentucky, but I'm not convinced they're down for good.

2:00pm - 2:30pm: Get the vegetables sautee'ing, and get the beans boiling, all while trying to catch the end of the Georgia-Kentucky game. Get that done by 2:30pm if possible, but if it isn't, rest assured that Tivo has my back.

2:30pm - 6:00pm: LSU at Ole Miss, CBS. One of my blogging compatriots, over at this site, believes that Ole Miss is basically a terrible team. I respectfully disagree. I think that if Ole Miss was in another conference, even in a solid conference like the Big 12, they would be a middle-of-the-road team. Maybe they'd be overmatched in the Pac-10 as well, but in many conference, they'd be a decent team. I think they're as good as Purdue, for example, and Purdue is 7-4. This is not to say they're a particularly good team, the Rebels, but don't overlook them. I've happened to see their two best played games on the year, against Florida and against Bama. They were really able to do some things, and they showed considerable athleticism. They ended up losing both of those games, but they were very close, and did not let those games get away from them. I've seen their receivers do some amazing things this year, and Greg Hardy is probably the second-best defensive lineman in the conference behind our own Mr. Heisman, Glen Dorsey.

It is certainly true that Ole Miiss lacks the depth that we have, and does not have the NFL-calibre talent all over the field that we possess (really, how many of our starters won't at least get a free agent contract when they turn pro?) But they've got good players and good athletes at some key positions, including on the offensive and defensive lines, at running back, at linebacker, and at wide receiver. Some of that talent is young and relatively inexperienced. Some of that talent is playing among less talented people. But it's not like this is the gang that couldn't shoot straight. They have enough good players at key positions that if we do not come to play, we will have a real fight on our hands.

Of course, if we come to play and don't make the mistakes we made in past games, we will win by several touchdowns. They have good players, but we have a lot more good players. Just don't assume this is an easy win, because it may not be at all.

Starting at 5:30, if the game is well in hand at that time, it will be time to make the rice.

6:00pm - 7:00pm: Entertain the guests with crazy stories of my brief stint as a New York playwright and feed them red beans and rice. They will then depart for home.

7:00pm - bedtime: I don't know. There's no SEC game on. Perhaps I'll watch Oklahoma against Texas Tech, if we even get it here. I just checked, and it looks like we get it. Or maybe I'll read a book.

SEC Preview - Week 12

We're really coming down the stretch of the season, and most teams are still playing for something, either for championships or bowl position. Here in Week 12, only LSU's opponent, Ole Miss, cannot make it to a bowl game. Here is the preview of this week's games:

Florida Atlantic at Florida and University of Louisiana-Monroe at Bama. Bama will get to win #7 and a near-certain bowl bid unless there is a serious breakdown of epic proportions. Florida will reach win #8 and position itself for a Dec. 31-or-later bowl game. Neither Florida Atlantic nor ULM are even particularly strong cupcakes, and I expect these games to be well in-hand by halftime.

Kentucky at Georgia, 11:30am, Lincoln-Financial. Once again, Lincoln-Financial gets a huge game. Just a couple weeks ago, Georgia was an enigma of a team that got stomped by Tennessee and that beat Vandy by 3 points. Now, all of a sudden, they're one of the hottest teams in the country, having gone on a 4 game winning streak that included big wins over Auburn and Florida. They have one of the best young running backs in the country, and one of the best young quarterbacks around. I still think their defense and their offensive line are suspect though. And Kentucky, despite recent woes, still has one of the best set of skill players in the country, and a defense that surprised me with its intensity and physicality. They are more than capable of beating Georgia and ending ALL of Georgia's high hopes. A loss by Georgia means it cannot go to the SECCG, and will not go to a BCS bowl. A win by Georgia eliminates Florida from the SECCG, and Georgia would still need help from Vandy or Kentucky (in the form of beating Tennessee) to make it to the SECCG.

Mississippi State at Arkansas, 1:00pm, no television. Both of these teams sit at 6 wins and are trying to get to 7, which will make them, I think, bowl safe. Both of these teams have something to market to a bowl committee even with 6 wins, but I don't think either one of them is a safe bet to make it unless they get to 7. MSU is one of the feel-good stories of the year in the country, and Arkansas is one of the feel-bad stories. MSU is overachieving, winning for a coach who was in great danger of being fired, and is emerging as one of the fun young teams to watch. Arkansas is coming off a tumultuous offseason, has underachieved for a coach under fire, and has failed to perform around its Heisman Trophy-calibre player. And yet, both sit at 6 wins, ready for more. This is actually a pretty good and pretty even matchup, and I wish it was on television, but it isn't.

Vandy at Tennessee, 1:00pm, GamePlan. There isn't an SEC game on television after the CBS game this week. What is ESPN doing? This game is important to the SEC race and it can't get past the GamePlan schedule? Tennessee, of course, controls its destiny in the SEC East. If they win out, they're in the Championship Game against LSU. If they lose a game, that opens the door for either Georgia or Florida to make it. Vandy is sitting at 5 wins, with an uphill battle to get to a bowl game. If they lose this one, they get a decent Wake Forest team next, and only 6 wins by no means guarantees a bowl game this year. Vandy needs to play as if they MUST win this game, because honestly they probably really do need this game in order to make it to a bowl. Despite the 5 wins, Vandy is probably the most disappointing team of the season. I really expected them to be more competitive and to beat a good team or two. They beat South Carolina, but that team was in the middle of an epic collapse. I don't think either of these teams are very good, but Tennessee is better.

LSU at Ole Miss, 2:30pm CBS. There's not a single night game in the SEC this week. I find that bizarre. I usually don't talk about LSU games in this segment, but I've been distracted from talking about it until now. What do I think of Ole Miss? I think they're better than their record. They're 0-6 in the conference, but they have been in some games against teams that pushed us to the limit. They lost to Florida by 6 points, and to Bama by 3. They've also played some bad games, losing to Vandy by 14 and to Arkansas by 36. I think their quarterback is not bad at all. He has more passing yards than Matt Flynn, though he's averaging less per attempt and cannot run. He's got some young receivers who do some amazingly athletic things sometimes. Their passing game has struggled a lot in the last few games though, with completion percentages under 50%, and averaging less than 100 yards per game. I don't have any explanation for that collapse other than the possibility that the loss to Bama simply took all the starch out of them.

Ole Miss's defense has some good players. Greg Hardy and Marcus Tillman are both very good defensive linemen, and Chris Strong is going to be a very good linebacker at some point. But right now their defense lacks size and athleticism at other positions, and that means we can probably beat them with our receivers and our offensive athleticism.

Keep in mind though that Ole Miss plays its season for a chance to beat us. This is their bowl game. It's their opportunity to make a mark on the college football world this year. I think we can expect Ole Miss to come out and play its best game, particularly on defense. Of course, LSU is also playing for a lot, and I don't think the Miles rumors are going to impact this particular game. Maybe next week though.

Around the SEC Preview

I have a guest blogging assistant this morning, as my 6 1/2 month old daughter prematurely decided she no longer wanted to be in bed.

This will be a pretty good week in the SEC, but it's partially offset by a strange TV schedule, and the failure of ESPN to air one of the more interesting matchups.

Mississippi State at South Carolina, 11:30am, Lincoln-Financial. Too bad I'll miss most or all of this game due to the LSU game's 11:00am scheduling. South Carolina's strong running game will have a test against MSU's strong defense. Unfortunately for South Carolina, their best defensive player, senior LB Jasper Brinkley, was lost for the season with a knee injury sustained against LSU. You really hate to see that for a guy who had emerged as a team leader and arguably his team's best player. He'll be back, but probably not before taking his skills to the NFL. He could apply for a medical redshirt if he wants, and come back next year. I think.

This year in the SEC, at least early, we're seeing a couple of elite teams (LSU and Florida) followed by a big pack of teams that are more or less even, all with their own strengths and weaknesses, but all of whom are more than capable of beating each other on any particular day. MSU and South Carolina are among these teams, and both have picked up a big win in the conference. It will be interesting to see if any of these teams break out of the pack and emerge as a 3rd power in the SEC. So far, the best candidates for it seem to be South Carolina and Kentucky, which is strange and exciting.

MSU's problem is a lack of dynamic offense, and I don't see that changing this year. Their offense will limit them all year. They won't be able to put up a lot of points on anyone or score a lot of quick points. They have a good running game, but they don't have a Darren McFadden on their roster, and their passing game is rather poor. They have to grind out yards on the ground 4-8 yards at a time, get turnovers, and play tough defense week after week in order to win. That's hard to do and it will take its toll. Any defensive slips or offensive turnovers will put this team in a deep hole in any given game. For this reason, while I think they're capable of beating anyone out there, they're going to have a tough time actually pulling it off consistently.

Ole Miss at Georgia, noon, no television that I know of. Strangely, this game is being played at noon with no television coverage (I think). It's actually a pretty interesting matchup. Georgia's solid running game and inconsistent passing game will be going up against Ole Miss's young, talented, but thin defense. Ole Miss's solid running game and overachieving passing game will be going up against Georgia's solid defense. Georgia's the better team, but they're coming off a big, draining, emotional win against Bama. Can they respond? Ole Miss proved they can stay with a very good team that isn't up for them. Either that or they proved they are a better team than we thought.

Florida Atlantic at Kentucky: The less said the better. Alright, not really. Kentucky obviously is doing some things right. They're 4-0. They're ranked. They have an explosive offense. But they still don't have much of a defense, and they're not a very physical team. As such, I think they're a threat to be upset by anyone who comes along, including Florida Atlantic. Will it happen? Probably not, but it could. I just think a team like this is a bad game waiting to happen. When it happens, it will be interesting to see if they have what it takes to a) win that game anyway, and b) recover from it mentally.

Alabama vs. Florida State (neutral site), 4:00pm CBS. In another strange and unusual television twist, the CBS game is at 4:00 rather than at 2:30pm. This means it will probably interfere with the 7:00 ESPN game. Bama is another one of those roughly equal teams in the big pack this year, and they've shown signs of breaking out of it. The running game is much better than expected, as is the defense. The passing game has struggled, but the potential remains there. If I was a big Bama fan, I would be very concerned about the extremely physical games my team is playing, especially with so little depth on defense. Those big players can only get worn out so many times before they struggle to come back from it week after week. They've played two games like that in succession, and this game will be another one. That will take its toll.

Florida State is very beatable. They just aren't a very good team at all. Their offense has struggled, getting only 200 yards passing and about 130 yards rushing per game. The only time I actually watched them play, the first half against Clemson, their offensive line was very poor. Supposedly it's improved a lot. They'll have a pretty good test against the Bama defense, which has caused teams problems this season.

North Texas at Arkansas, 6:00pm no television. Eh, who cares?

Eastern Michigan at Vandy, 6:00pm, no television. Vandy's drive for 6 wins continues. This one will be #3. They'll need to figure out how to win at least one more SEC game though. I still think Vandy is a pretty good team, but so is everyone else they still have to play in the SEC. Those other teams are a lot more accustomed to winning than is Vandy.

Auburn at Florida, 7:00pm ESPN. This is the marquee SEC matchup of the week, and it has a line of about 18 points in favor of Florida. Alright, Auburn's not a very good team. I don't think I'm telling anyone anything they don't already know. However, this is a team with a lot of playmakers on defense, good coaches, and an offense that is.. uh.. waiting to break out. They have talent at running back and offensive line. They're just very young at those positions. They're improving weekly. If they can take that big leap forward and become the playmakers that Auburn needs, they will do some things.

The bigger problem is the passing game, and there appears to be no solution to that problem on the horizon. At least not for this year. They simply need an infusion of talent, and that doesn't often come mid-season. Like MSU, they'll have to grind out wins with the running game and the defense.

Week 4 Around the SEC

In a week that saw only one significant upset on the national level (Michigan over Penn State), the action in the SEC was probably the most exciting stuff all weekend. The LSU-South Carolina game wasn't the most thrilling in the world, but it was the highest profile game of the week. Here's what happened this week around the SEC:

Georgia 26
Bama 23 (OT)

This was expected to be a good game, and it didn't disappoint in the least. These two teams played this game tough the entire time they were on the field. Georgia sprinted out to a 10-0 lead, but didn't appear comfortable at any time except for their first drive, in which they scored a quick touchdown after marching the length of the field with ease. Bama didn't give them anything easy the rest of the game.

I said of this game:

They key to this game is Georgia's young, talented, but inconsistent quarterback Matthew Stafford. When he's good, Georgia is a very good team. When he's bad, Georgia is a rather bad team. He was good against Oklahoma State and bad against South Carolina. If Bama's defense can keep him off balance, they'll have a good weekend. If they let Stafford get into a good rhythm and stay there, it's going to be a long night.

Stafford had an OK night, but neither great nor terrible. He was 19 for 35 with 224 yards passing, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He avoided getting sacked. He had a one-game GTQBPI of 5.65, which is not great, but is not bad for a BIG game. He was not really the key to the game, however, because he had neither a great game nor a bad game. The key was Georgia's solid running attack, which put up 153 tough yards and wore down the Bama defense.

Kentucky 42
Arkansas 29

This was another one of those back-and-forth type games. Early, it looked like Arkansas would run away with it, as they scored they jumped out to a 20-7 lead. Then Kentucky made a furious rally to get it to 21-20 in the 3rd quarter. Arkansas scored the next 9 points on a safety and a touchdown return of the ensuing free kick before Kentucky scored the final 21 points of the game. I'm sorry I didn't get to watch this game, but I was watching the Bama-Georgia game instead.

Jones and McFadden torched the Kentucky defense as expected for 306 yards rushing between them, plus Felix Jones returned that free kick for a touchdown. Surprisingly, despite 338 yards rushing, almost 500 total yards of offense, and touchdowns by both the special teams AND the defense, Arkansas still didn't put up a ton of points. Having outgained Kentucky by 60 yards and scored two non-offensive touchdowns, I don't really understand why they lost so badly. Having not watched the game, I don't really have any insight.

But I have some takeaway lessons:

1. neither of these teams have good defenses.
2. both of these teams are very dangerous, but also beatable.

Since we play both of these teams, and Kentucky is likely to be ranked when we play them, we need to watch out.

Florida 30
Ole Miss 24

It's hard to imagine me getting it more wrong than this. Here is what I said:

The bad news is that Florida is so much better than Ole Miss that we won't really get an opportunity to gauge how good Ole Miss is.... I think Florida will be able to find a LOT of mismatches.

Blake Adams played a whale of a ballgame, with over 300 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, and a one-game GTQBPI of 9.03. That's outstanding against a team as good as Florida. It gave his team a chance to pull off a major upset, but in the end there was just too much Tim Tebow. Between his running and his passing, he accounted for 427 yards of offense and 2 touchdowns. His GTQBPI was 8.31, and he either ran or passed 51 times on the game. That's good enough to win the coveted GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Player of the Week for the 4th consecutive time.

Auburn 55
New Mexico State 20

Auburn stops the bleeding at least temporarily by getting an easy win over NMSU. Here's what I said of this game:

Keep an eye on that New Mexico State-Auburn score. Don't be surprised if New Mexico State has a shot at this game in the 4th quarter. Auburn's offense is struggling immensely due to poor blocking and lack of playmakers at the skill positions. NMSU plays that pass-happy Hal Mumme offense. If they can avoid giving Auburn short fields and can find a way to put up 3 touchdowns, they have a real chance here.

NMSU put up a few points, but they also committed 6 turnovers. They actually only outgained by about 40 yards on the game, but those short fields killed their chances. Auburn QBs had a solid game, even if they weren't spectacular. Next week, they get Florida but also get Brad Lester back. Let's see if that provides the magic cure to Auburn's ills.

Mississippi State 31
Gardner Webb 15

OK, they let a team from the former Division I-AA put up 15 points on them and stay within 2 scores. No one ever said MSU had a dynamic high-powered offense. They're going to have to grind out wins, even against weak teams, but they just ground out their 3rd win. In truth though, they jumped out to a 31-3 lead, and then gave up some scores when the game was out of reach. They need to figure out how to win 3 more to get to a bowl game. It won't be easy.

Tennessee 48
Arkansas State 27

Arkansas State stayed within striking distance for most of the game, but never could quite do more than keep it close. Before you start thinking about how Tennessee must have looked bad, keep in mind that Arkansas State gave Texas all they wanted earlier in the season.

That's all I have.

We're now in 1st place in the SEC West thanks to Bama's loss. We're the only undefeated SEC West team. The East has two undefeated teams in Kentucky and Florida. No, this isn't basketball.

GameDay: South Carolina

OK, I got up at 4:30am today because the baby decided she REALLY didn't want to be in bed anymore. Is she excited about football? That's all I can assume.

So what are the plans for today? Well, there's football of course.

Now until 9:00am: chores, family activity, maybe watch a movie on Tivo, maybe go do the grocery shopping.

9:00am - 11:00am: ESPN GameDay is in Tuscaloosa, which is actually kind of disappointing. I had hoped they'd come here for the LSU-Bama game. I suppose they still might, but they usually don't go to the same place twice in one season. I may or may not watch any of it. Honestly, probably not. Mrs. GeauxTuscaloosa wants to go to the relatively new bakery in Northport. I love a good bakery, so she didn't have to twist my arm. This is a "bread" bakery rather than a "sweets" bakery. I really wish there was a good donut shop here in Tuscaloosa. I find Krispie Kreme to be all kinds of nasty. I know I'm in the minority on that, but when you were raised on donuts from Cal's Bakery in Gonzales, Louisiana, it's hard to go from that to this oddly flavored, oddly textured doughy donut from Krispie Kreme. Whenever I'm visiting my parents, we end up spending like $30 on donuts from Cal's. If anyone knows of a really good donut available in Tuscaloosa, I'm all ears. But I digress.

11:00am - 11:30am: Bide my time.

11:30am - 2:30pm: Florida at Ole Miss, Lincoln-Financial. When I was a kid, my Dad called the neighborhood convenience store the "Pac-A-Sac" even though it was a 7-Eleven, and later a Circle-K. It had previously been called Pac-A-Sac, but only for a couple years, and had changed its name before I was old enough to remember it. Since we moved to Gonzales when I was 2 years old, and it had undoubtedly changed its name by the time I was 5 years old, my Dad had only known this store as a Pac-A-Sac for a maximum of about 3 years, but continued to call it by that name for another decade. I have decided that I'm not quite old enough yet to refuse to call things by their new names, so I won't call it "Jefferson Pilot". It's "Lincoln-Financial", even if it sounds wrong. I'll just get used to it.

I can't say this matchup intrigues me at all. I'll watch it, because it's my first chance to see Ole Miss, and another chance to see Florida, but I have no expectations that Ole Miss will be able to stay in this game.

2:30pm - 6:00pm: South Carolina at LSU, CBS. The more I think about this game, the less supremely confident I become. USC has a really solid defense all around. They also have a very good running game. MSU was able to run the ball on us early in that game. Blake Mitchell has, at times, been a very good quarterback. Of course, he's the TYPE of quarterback we have mauled all season: a drop-back passer without good escapability. We're the clear favorite for very good reason, but this matchup is not as bad a lot of people, including myself earlier in the week, seemed to think.

Once again, a key is going to be how our offensive line is able to get a push against that defense. If we've shown any chinks in the armor, it's been on the offensive line.

6:00pm - 7:00pm: 2nd Quarter of Kentucky at Arkansas, ESPN2: I really want to know why ESPN schedules the #2 and #3 SEC matchups of the week to be played mostly at the same time. I know that the SEC probably gets more money by giving ESPN the #3 matchup rather than by giving that matchup to Lincoln-Financial, but as an SEC fan, I sure would prefer to see Kentucky at Arkansas rather than Florida at Ole Miss, but in order to see this game, I'd have to give up watching Georgia at Bama. I won't be doing that unless Georgia at Bama is a blowout.

Since SportsCenter and College Football Live haven't been bloviating endlessly on the subject of Darren McFadden's injury, I'm assuming he's good to go on this game. In the last few years, Kentucky has had an abysmal defense, and Arkansas proved last week it is very vulnerable to the pass. Kentucky is as good of a passing team as there is in the conference right now, with the possible exception of Florida, and McFadden and Jones put up yards against even the great defenses. There could be 90 points in this game.

7:00pm - 10:30pm or so: Georgia at Bama, ESPN: I believe I've said it before, but I'll say it again. The key here is Matthew Stafford. He's very talented and very young, but he is also inconsistent. When he's good and in a rhythm, Georgia is a very good team. When he's off-balance and out of rhythm, Georgia is very beatable. The key to this game will be what Bama does to try to disrupt Stafford, and how Stafford responds. If Stafford is sharp, I believe Bama has little chance to win this game. If Bama can make Stafford struggle, they will likely win this game.

Watch out also for special teams. Both teams have great return men who can put points on the board.

Final Note: Keep an eye on that New Mexico State-Auburn score. Don't be surprised if New Mexico State has a shot at this game in the 4th quarter. Auburn's offense is struggling immensely due to poor blocking and lack of playmakers at the skill positions. NMSU plays that pass-happy Hal Mumme offense. If they can avoid giving Auburn short fields and can find a way to put up 3 touchdowns, they have a real chance here.

SEC Preview plus Matt Flynn

I can't help but notice that comments have slowed down considerably since I started posting Bullwinkle-related images at the front of blog entries. If there's a correlation there, I'm highly disappointed in my readership. Come on! It's Bullwinkle!

I woke up this morning to this headline on Tiger Bait: "Flynn Questionable". Miles says he's day to day, and that we'll know more about whether he'll play tomorrow. Also questionable is strong safety Craig Steltz.

Around the SEC:

Mississippi State at Auburn, 11:30am, Lincoln Financial. I know I've said that I doubted MSU would win a conference game all season, but allow me to present this game as a potential upset. Having watched both of these teams play, I think MSU matches up pretty well against them. Auburn has a great right side defensive end in Quentin Groves, but MSU matches up with a left tackle (Michael Brown) who held Kirston Pittman in check for a whole game the week before Pittman earned SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week honors for his performance against Virginia Tech. Auburn's offensive line is VERY suspect, and MSU's defensive line is quite good. If Michael Henig can take care of the ball and if Michael Brown can hold Quentin Groves in check, MSU has a shot here.

Western Carolina at Georgia, noon: Georgia gets a salve for its post-South Carolina wounds by playing a D1-AA school that Bama absolutely trounced. Next week: Bama.

Tennessee at Florida, 2:30pm CBS: Finally, a CBS afternoon game. Tennessee's defense looked pretty bad against Cal, and frankly Tim Tebow looks like he's going to be the hardest person to defend in the entire conference this year. He's going to give defensive coordinators fits all year. I don't think there is a single person in the conference, not even Darren McFadden, who is so heavily integrated into his team's offense than is Tim Tebow for Florida. I think to beat Florida's offense, you have to play disciplined assignment-based defense; you need corners who can cover good receivers man-to-man; you need defensive linemen who can penetrate consistently; and you need linebackers fast and athletic enough to stop runners from getting to the corner. If your cornerbacks need to provide run support, they'll fake a run and throw it to the receiver the corner isn't covering.

The good news, if you're Tennessee, is that it looks like Florida's defense is going to give up a lot of points. This really is an interesting matchup, and it could get very high scoring. Tennessee's defense is going to have to play better than it did against Cal, but honestly Florida doesn't have the kind of speed that burned Tennessee repeatedly. I'm not saying Florida has no speed, but Cal had all-world type speed.

Arkansas at Bama, 5:45 ESPN: Bama has looked better than expected, but they haven't faced a guy like McFadden. This will be a tremendous test of their questionable front seven. Even without Marcus Monk, Arky is a bigger test than Vandy. Bama will get a big boost from their home crowd, but if McFadden or Jones breaks off a big run early, that could take the crowd out of it. On the offensive side of the ball, Bama really has to get John Parker Wilson rolling. He doesn't have a touchdown pass yet and is averaging only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. He's been one of the least effective QBs in the conference so far this season. I don't know much about Arkansas's defense, but they'll probably need Wilson to have a break out game if they hope to win this one.

Another interesting stat about John Parker Wilson: he has not scored a rushing touchdown either this season or last season. He was the only full-time starting quarterback in the SEC last year not to score a rushing touchdown last year. So far, five SEC quarterbacks have scored rushing touchdowns.

Ole Miss at Vandy, 6:00pm: Vandy, a team I maintain should be pretty good, tries to recover from a pretty devastating loss to Bama last week. They're better than Ole Miss, or at least they're better than the Ole Miss team that gave up about 1000 yards to Missouri. If not for some very untimely penalties and an injury to their QB, last week's game could have been different. If Nickson is healthy, look for him to try to take revenge on Ole Miss.

South Carolina State at South Carolina, 6:00pm: Honestly, what is there to say that hasn't already been said. It's "State" versus "U". What more do you need?

Louisville at Kentucky, 6:30pm, ESPN Classic: That's right, it's on ESPN Classic. What does this say about this matchup? Nothing, really, but it is actually quite an interesting looking game. Frankly, despite Louisville's lofty top 10 ranking, they still have a lot to prove after giving up 42 points to Middle Tennessee State University. Granted, they scored 58 points against MTSU, and Kentucky is not known for stellar defense, but they can't afford to leave receivers open the way they did. If you don't believe it, check out the picture to the left. Neither of these teams has really proven to be any good this year. I suppose that's what they mean when they describe this as a "Credibility Game". The winner gets to say, in all honesty, that they've accomplished something. Good luck Cats.

Week 2: Around the SEC

South Carolina at Georgia: After looking very mediocre against ULL last week, South Carolina showed a little of why I predicted they'd be a factor in the SEC East last night. South Carolina rode a solid running game and a stout defense to a tense, ugly victory over UGA. They now sit alone in first place in the East. Matthew Stafford, who I think has the most potential of any young QB in the conference, looked very, very mediocre last night in completing less than half of his passes for less than 5 yards per attempt. Blake Mitchell wasn't great, but he was better than Stafford.

Bama at Vandy: I may have to revise my opinion of Bama. They looked pretty darn good against a team I think is pretty darn good themselves. Freshman running back Terry Grant made a bid for the GeauxTuscaloosa SEC Offensive Player of the Week in rushing for 173 yards and 2 touchdowns. Some untimely penalties early in the game really hurt Vandy, taking away big plays, and they never recovered. The Bama defense looked better than advertised, and the running game is making up for a passing game that has been disappointing so far.

Troy at Florida: The Tim Tebow show continues, as he scored 5 touchdowns (3 passing, 2 rushing) and racked up 329 yards of total offense. He was the leading rusher on the game for either team. He is the second consecutive recipient of the GeauxTuscaloosa SEC Offensive Player of the Week (I don't give out a Defensive Player of the Week award because stats are too hard to find). That Florida defense, however, gives up some points. We'll see what happens next week and see if Florida is a legit contender.

Missouri at Ole Miss: A great effort by BenJarvis Green-Ellis goes to waste. He rushed for a whopping 236 yards in a losing effort. Ole Miss just couldn't stop Missouri at all. Chase Daniel's line at QB was 31 for 43 with 330 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Plus, he rushed for 66 yards, as Ole Miss gave up 559 yards of total offense. I honestly thought Ole Miss's defense would be pretty solid this year. Guess I was wrong.

Southern Miss at Tennessee: Tennessee overcame a slow start to pull away at the end. Erik Ainge had a pretty good line. He's been a solid QB his whole career, but has gotten a rap of not playing well in the big games. NEWS FLASH: No SEC QB played well against Florida or LSU in the last couple years. He'll get a chance for redemption next week in a game that will probably make or break his legacy as a college QB.

Mississippi State at Tulane: Michael Henig had a solid game following up his horrid stat line against LSU. He was 21 of 31 for 223 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. The Bulldogs won handily.

South Florida at Auburn: Something stinks, and it's Auburn's offense. If not for Michael Henig's horrible game against LSU, Brandon Cox would be the lowest-rated QB in the league. Cox was 16 of 35 for 165 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions in an overtime loss to the Bulls. Neither of Auburn's two big rushers had Auburn averaged more than 4.4 yards per carry. I didn't watch any of this game, but I suspect the culprit once again was poor blocking.

Kent State at Kentucky: I have nothing interesting to say about this contest.

Most Productive QB of the Week: Tim Tebow's GTQBPI (GeauxTuscaloosa Quarterback Productivity Index) was 10.21 yards per play, which was the best in the league among starters. Perrilloux's was 16.21 yards per play in a backup role. If he keeps playing at that high of a level, I'll have to start ranking him based on cumulative stats.

Least Productive QB of the Week: Chris Nickson of Vandy was 5 for 18 for 67 yards and one interception, and was in the negatives in rushing, earning him a 1.43 yards per play GTQBPI. Brandon Cox thanks him.

Week 2 - Conference-Wide Preview

With gratuitous Bullwinkle image.

OK, Week 1 is now officially behind us. There is no more Week 1, except in retrospective. Preparation for Week 2 is upon us in earnest. Here is your preview of the coming week. After this paragraph, I won't mention cupcake games like Florida v. Troy and Kentucky v. Kent State again.

OK, I'll mention Kentucky v. Kent State again. Didn't Kent State change its name to Kent? Is it sort of like "Siamese Twins" where people know that isn't their real name but simply refuse to call them by their real name? Anyway, I shouldn't call this a cupcake game. Kent beat Iowa State last week. But anyway, that's the last you'll hear of that.

Teams Hoping to Get A Rare Win

Mississippi State at Tulane: Who did Tulane have to kill to get two SEC teams to go on the road to play them? Having no idea how good Tulane is, MSU had still better beat this team, because I'm doubtful they'll be able to win any SEC game.

Ole Miss at Missouri: Whenever I was watching Mizzou v. Illinois, Mizzou looked great. Chase Daniel looked llike a skilled QB with good receivers. Whenever I changed to channel to watch another game, Illinois scored points. It was the strangest thing. Illinois looked completely overmatched every time I was watching them play, yet almost won the game. Anyway, if Ole Miss is going to be competitive against the good teams of the SEC, they had better beat Mizzou pretty convincingly.

TV Guide

Alabama at Vandy, 11:30am Lincoln-Financial: To me, this is the most anticipated game of the early season schedule. Here is what I keep telling anyone who'll listen (so I've told like 2 or 3 people). Vandy's best five or six players are just as good as Bama's best five or six players. Earl Bennett is just as good as DJ Hall. Chris Nickson is just as good as John Parker Wilson. Chris Williams is just as good as Andre Smith. Jonathan Goff is just as good as Simeone Castille. Brian Stamper is just as good as Antoine Caldwell. I don't know how the rest of Bama's team stacks up to the rest of Vandy's team, but the best players are pretty much even. As far as I can tell then, these two teams are evenly matched. And it's being played in Nashville. Watch out.

Once again, there is no 2:30pm game. When does that start?

South Carolina at Georgia, 5:45 ESPN2: I've been hyping up SC for a while, but I'm not feeling good about that right now. ULL played Carolina tough, and Georgia looked surprisingly good against Oklahoma State. Unless Blake Mitchell comes back and makes this team a lot better (possible), Georgia sure looks like the superior team right now.

Virginia Tech at LSU, 8:15 ESPN: OK, we all know about this one. It's a matchup of two top-10 teams out of conference. We've already talked about this pretty extensively, but I'll say something else right now. Watch out for Virginia Tech's tight ends. They made a lot of catches against ECU, and their wideouts pretty much disappeared. We don't play a lot of SEC teams that emphasize the tight end in the passing game, so we better have a plan for it. Of course, if their offensive line doesn't do better, it probably won't matter. Then again, the same can be said of us.

South Florida at Auburn, 8:00 ESPN2: Why do we keep doing this? Why do we keep scheduling quality SEC football games against each other? Is it Auburn's fault? It has to be because they've been involved in it twice in the first two weeks. They say that a team makes its biggest improvement between Week 1 and Week 2. Auburn had better hope that's true, because they were lucky to escape last week with a win. If their OL doesn't improve, Brandon Cox won't be their QB for long, and I wouldn't want to be the guy who replaces him.

Other Games

Southern Miss at Tennessee, not on television: Trap game! Tennessee faces a half-decent mid-major between their loss to Cal and their traditional rivalry with Florida.

TCU at Texas, CSTV 6:00pm: I think I have the TV outlet right, but I might not. These are two ranked teams, and TCU is supposed to be legitimately good. If SC vs Georgia looks like a laugher, change over to this one and see if an upset is possible.

Middle Tennessee State at Louisville, 6:00pm Thursday, ESPN: If you feel the need to scout MTSU, a future LSU opponent, check out this game. They lost 27-14 to Florida Atlantic last week. That's all I really need to know, but I might watch some of it anyway.

SEC TV Guide - Week 1

I think this is a nice idea for a regular feature. Let's preview which SEC matchups will be on television for week 1:

LSU at Mississippi State - Thursday, August 30, 7:00pm, ESPN

Of course, none of the LSU folks will be missing this game. It's a matchup of arguably the best SEC team against arguably the worst SEC team. But hey, it's US. How can you not watch us?

Western Kentucky at Florida - 11:30am, Lincoln-Financial outlet

Alright, I like the Jefferson-Pi.., I mean Lincoln Financial game. Their crew is solid and best of all knows their SEC football. A lot of people mock the JP guys, but I think it's mostly because they don't like their own team to be playing in the morning. I understand that, but I like getting my Saturday started off with these guys. Besides, I'm usually awake by about 6:00am. I get on here and do this, then run my errands, and then I'm ready for some football.

But I'm not ready for this game. This game will tell us nothing. Because of Tennessee playing on ABC this week, JP gets the 5th best SEC game (rather than the 3rd or 4th), but I suppose it may be interesting seeing whatever they'll show us about the new all-Tebow, all-the-time offense at Florida.

Ole Miss at Memphis - 2:30pm, College Sports TV (?)

OK, this game doesn't really interest me either, and frankly I'm only guessing about the TV outlet. There are three fascinating games Saturday evening that will all be on at the same time. Could they not have put one of them in the 2:30 slot?

If you want to watch this game, watch to see if Ole Miss's young but talented defensive line dominates. If Ole Miss is going to make a move this year, it will start with the defensive line. They have some excellent young defensive linemen including Marcus Tillman, who is emerging as one of the best in the SEC.

Oklahoma State at Georgia - 5:45 ESPN2

Georgia is a mystery. If they're an SEC contender, I think they should handle OSU easily. If they aren't, they could have trouble. Matthew Stafford is the best young QB in the SEC, (that's right, I said it), but the offensive line and receivers are big question marks. It is kind of amazing to me that Georgia has such a good QB and didn't have the quality line to protect him or the receivers for him to throw to. The running backs are also questionable, considering my favorite Georgia running back, Thomas Brown, is coming off a very serious injury.

Watch out for Mikey Henderson for Georgia, who may be the best return man in the conference.

Oklahoma State has a lot of athletes at receiver and running backs. This could be a fun game to watch, especially if you need to scout Georgia. Personally, I don't need to scout them, so I won't watch this game after 6:45 much unless the other ones are blowouts. If you really want to see Georgia, you'll get another chance next week with one of the best matchups of the early season when they go against South Carolina.

Kansas State at Auburn, 6:45pm ESPN

I've previewed this one before, but this game is growing on me. Auburn will have an inexperienced offensive line and inexperienced receivers. If you're going to get Auburn this year, it's best to get them early before their offensive line gets more experienced. If that offensive line is able to make holes and protect Brandon Cox this week, look out for the rest of the year. I'm not saying K-state's DL is that great, but they're respectable, and Auburn's line will only get better and better as the year progresses, barring injuries.

Tennessee at Cal, 7:00pm ABC

Tennessee will be without their best running back, and will be replacing quite a bit of talent that is moving on to the NFL. Cal, however, is replacing Marshawn Lynch and a lot of its defensive talent. This is the marquee matchup of week 1, but honestly K-State against Auburn is more important to LSU. However, this one should be a lot of fun, and will be fodder for a lot of SEC-Pac 10 bragging rights for a while, much like Tennessee's blowout win over Cal was last year. That was in Knoxville, however, and Cal was overwhelmed by the raucous atmosphere, the likes of which they've never seen in the Pac 10. They settled in after a disastrous first half and played even with Tennessee through the second half, but it was too late. Will the friendlier confines of whatever Cal's home stadium is make this a better game for the Golden Bears? I don't know, but I'm interesting in finding out.