Bittersweet Football Tuesday

Today is New Year's, historically the best college football day of the year. It's the day when all the biggest bowls were played.

Can you believe that in 1970, there were 11 bowl games? A few years earlier, there were only 9. No 6-6 teams made it those years. Now, there are 32 post season bowl games.

I'm not complaining about that. While I don't watch all the games, I appreciate that they're there, and I don't mind that mediocre teams get a bowl game.

What I definitely do not like, however, is the devaluation of the "minor" New Year's Day bowl games. There are 6 games today, and 4 of them start at noon or earlier, to make room for the supposedly sexier matchup of USC vs. Illinois at 3:30pm, without competition from other games. Fans of the SEC will have their day start with Tennessee vs. Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl at 10:00am, a start time that is sure to please those who resent Lincoln-Financial.

Worse though, Arkansas vs. Missouri in the Cotton Bowl will start a mere half-hour later at 10:30am. And then, in a final insult, Michigan vs. Florida in the Cap One Bowl will start at noon, while those other two games are near halftime. SEC fans will have to choose between watching the end of the Cotton Bowl, the end of the Outback Bowl, or the first half of the Cap One Bowl.

Let's hope neither the Cotton nor the Outback go to overtime.

The SEC is having a good bowl season, at 4-0. None of the games were blowouts, and none of the games were pretty, but we ended up winning all of them.

Yesterday, Kentucky beat FSU in 35-28 shootout. I have to tip my hat to Florida State. They could have given up on this game when they traveled without 36 of their players due to suspensions and injuries, but they didn't give up. They could have given up when they fell behind by 14 on two different occasions, but they didn't. Ultimately, they didn't have the personnel to win the game, but it may have been one of their best-played games of the season.

In the evening, Auburn took down Clemson in overtime, 23-20, showcasing their new spread offense. This Auburn team, spread or not, looks like they have the personnel to be a good team for the next couple years. They have an heir apparent sophomore quarterback who looks dangerous, 3 good running backs all returning next year, and an offensive line filled with freshmen. This offense will be formidable next year and beyond, especially if they can find a few wide receivers.

It was an ugly game, with neither team playing particularly well early, but it ended up being an exciting game. And yes, I always root for SEC against non-SEC.

As for today's games, I think Florida is significantly better than Michigan, and I would be shocked if Michigan can stay with them. I don't know what to think about Tennessee vs. Wisconsin, because Wisconsin is something of a mystery to me, and Tennessee has a history of underachieving in bowl games. The one I'm looking forward to seeing is Missouri vs. Arkansas in the Cotton. I think that this is a good matchup, and if Arkansas plays up to their ability and beats Missouri, it will be a huge boost to the SEC, because Arkansas is a big underdog to a team that arguably should have made a BCS bowl.

I fully expect Georgia to handle Hawaii tonight, but you never know. I've been surprised before. If the SEC can somehow end the night 8-0, that would be.. wait for it.. legendary!

After today, we really focus on the Ohio State vs. LSU game coming up. No more recruiting stuff unless I change my mind.

I-Bowl

It was a nice win for Bama last night, even though it didn't go at all like I expected. I expected one of two things:

• Bama to blow them out by two touchdowns or more, or
• Bama to lay an egg completely and lose, looking bad in the process.

In a way, I guess we did see that, but we saw both of them within the same game. Bama scored the first 27 points of the game and looked like they completely overmatched Colorado. Then they laid an egg and let Colorado score 24 of the next 27 points, ultimately winning 30-24.

I really don't have much else to say about this game, except that it was very interesting that Bama did not play Terry Grant at all. Instead, they relied on Glen Coffee and Roy Upchurch.

I don't yet know how good this team will be next year. They sure lose a lot of their best players, but that's common. Most teams have a lot of seniors who are major contributors, and Bama is no different. The question is how good the young backups to Gilberry, Castille, Hall, Mustin, Saunders, Brown, Carter, Caddell, and the offensive linemen are. Also, it will be important for Bama that Antoine Caldwell return.

Today, while I'm at work, Kentucky will begin playing Florida State. I expect Kentucky to win that game, because I'm not sure FSU has enough players to field a team. Plus, Kentucky's actually pretty good.

Then later tonight, the Peach Bowl, which I absolutely refuse to call the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. It's the Peach Bowl, dammit. It will be Auburn against Clemson, in one of the best bowl matchups not in the BCS, and it's not even on New Year's Day. I think this is a true 50-50 game.

Then, I get the day off to watch a lot of football on Tuesday.

SEC Preview - Week 13

I apologize for not updating yesterday. I got on the road very early in the morning and I did not have time to update. Once I was finally able to sit down at the computer for a while, it was late afternoon and I just decided to wait until now to update.

It's a tired refrain, but this is another big week here in SEC country. There are a few big out-of-conference games this week, rivalry games, and games where the teams are playing for quite a lot. Let's get down to business.

The Egg Bowl, Mississippi at Mississippi State, 11:30AM Friday. For once, the Egg Bowl may not be the only bowl game for one of these two teams. Mississippi State sits at 6 wins, bowl eligible but not guaranteed a bowl game. A win here will make them very attractive for a lower-tier bowl committee, and they may yet sneak into the Cotton Bowl if they get some breaks along the way. As for the game, MSU is clearly not the team that started the season. They are now primed and ready to play. They proved last week they can pass (if you don't play defense against them), and they proved in previous weeks that they can run the ball, force turnovers, and make big defensive plays. Ole Miss is not a great team by any stretch, but they are better than their 0-7 record. It is simply Ole Miss's misfortune that the rest of the SEC is so strong this year. In previous years, this Ole Miss squad probably would have gotten a couple wins. Ole Miss showed last week that when Brent Schaeffer is playing well, they can be very dangerous.As it is, they are certainly capable of winning this one and ruining MSU's season. With a loss here, MSU may not get its bowl game. It still might, but it's not definite.

Note the start time of this game. It's starting Friday morning. Bama will probably be keeping one eye on the score of this one, because this game may decide their bowl fate.

Arkansas at LSU, 1:30pm Friday, for The Boot. I haven't really previewed this game yet because of distractions and travel. Allow me to rectify that. Let me just say that Arkansas has a TERRIBLE pass defense. Just terrible. MSU, a team that can hardly pass at all, torched them for 421 yards and 4 touchdown passes. Bama had 327 yards passing against them. South Carolina had 364. Hopefully, someone told Miles and Crowton that this team is vulnerable to the pass.

I think this is a game in which it would be a mistake to be so heavily reliant on Jacob Hester. I think Hester's an excellent player, but this Arkansas team is vulnerable to big plays, and we should take advantage by leaning more heavily on our speed backs and our passing game. This is not to suggest shelving Hester, but simply that we should not use him as heavily.

Of course, the big threat with Arkansas is their running game. We all know about Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. They are simply the best one-two combination of running backs in recent SEC memory. McFadden is probably the best running back in the SEC since Bo Jackson. Our defense will have to be focused on stopping those two.

Teams have had a certain amount of success at that this season. While each has over 1000 yards of rushing, and McFadden has more than 1500, McFadden has been held under 100 yards rushing 3 times this season. Jones was held under 100 yards 3 times before he got hurt against Tennessee. The strange thing is that Arkansas is 2-1 in games where McFadden is held to under 100 yards rushing; is 4-3 in games where McFadden gets between 100 and 300 yards rushing; and is 1-0 in games where McFadden goes for over 300. McFadden's individual success does not seem to significantly contribute to wins. I don't know what to make of that, but I'd rather take my chances by stopping McFadden.

Last year, Casey Dick had a terrible game passing and all but gave us the game gift wrapped with a bow. This year, Dick is coming off probably the best game of his career heading into this one. He was 14 of 17 with 4 touchdown passes and no interceptions last week in a win against MSU, but looking at his stats on the season, this appears to be an exception. He has thrown for over 200 only once this season, and has thrown 9 interceptions to 17 touchdown passes. Before the last game, it was 9 interceptions to 13 touchdown passes, a very modest stat line. He is also not a QB who can hurt you with his legs.

Tennessee at Kentucky, 12:30 CBS Saturday. This is the other game of some considerable importance to us. I think we all know by now that this game will decide who LSU plays in the SEC Championship Game. If Tennessee wins, they're in. If Kentucky win, Georgia is in. I'd rather play Tennessee, personally. I think Georgia may well be the best team in the country right now. They remind me a lot of the 2001 LSU team that started very pedestrian, then ended the season as one of the best around. We don't want to go against that team if it can be avoided.

Kentucky is actually favored in this game, and I can see why. They have a great QB and good running backs and receivers. Tennessee has been very vulnerable on defense and does not get a lot of pressure on the QB. Plus, this game is in Kentucky, and Kentucky wants to end its LONG losing streak against Tennessee. This is of course the best Kentucky team in decades and if they're going to do it now is the time.

Tennessee, of course, can also do some things. Erik Ainge is quietly having an excellent season. In an ordinary season, one in which the SEC doesn't have two Heisman candidate quarterbacks, this kind of season would be good enough for 1st team All-SEC. Tennessee also has good running backs. Their defense, while not great, has been known to make big plays converting interceptions to touchdowns. I think this is a very even matchup.

Wake Forest at Vandy, 1:00pm Saturday, no television. Vandy tries to achieve bowl eligibility, but even if they make it, I think a bowl game is a long shot. Maybe they can sneak into a bowl that can't get a team from its conference tie-in. I don't know how all that works. I also don't know much about Wake Forest.

Georgia at Georgia Tech, 2:30pm Saturday ABC. Once again, this in-state rivalry pits two teams of vastly different quality. This series isn't LSU-Tulane yet, but it appears to be getting there. Georgia Tech is not a bad team though. They sit at 7-4, a reasonably good team in the ACC. They're just not Georgia. Georgia is one of the hottest teams in the country, and look like they can beat anybody right now. Georgia is not playing for conference positioning, but a win here will probably mean they go to a BCS bowl (if they don't go to the SEC Championship Game). A loss here may push them out of the BCS, and may mean the SEC gets only one BCS bid (but I doubt it).

Florida State at Florida, 4:00pm CBS Saturday. We all know about FSU's inconsistencies this year. We all also know about Florida's young talent. I really don't have much to say about this game other than that. Florida is playing probably for the Cap One Bowl, and wouldn't it be exciting if they got to play against Illinois?

Clemson at South Carolina, 6:00pm ESPN2 Saturday. South Carolina is playing for its bowl life. They were one of the first SEC teams to reach bowl-eligibility, and they remain one of two teams to beat Georgia on the year, but they are reeling. They haven't won a game since October 13. No bowl will want South Carolina at 6-6 if they lose this game. They will be on a 5 game losing streak. They don't travel particularly well. No one will be interested. If they want to go to a bowl game, they HAVE to win this game. It's hard to believe this team was in the top 10 in the country at midseason.

Bama at Auburn, 7:00pm ESPN Saturday. Talent-wise, I think these teams are roughly equal. The question is going to be, "Where is Bama psychologically?" Football is as much a psychological game as it is a physical game. Rumors are that after the UL-Monroe travesty, Bama players were out on the Strip in Tuscaloosa talking smack about each other and blaming the disappointing season on their coaches and teammates. Then, early this week, their coach gave the strangest press conference since Mike Gundy's rant earlier this season. He described the loss to UL-Monroe in almost apocalyptic terms, and according to my wife appeared to be about to challenge a reporter to a fight. He also put the blame squarely on his players, saying there was a "personality" problem on the Bama team. These are not good signs.

What's more, this team is not a lock to get to a bowl game with a loss here. They'll sit at 6-6, and we know that not all bowl-eligible teams will make a bowl game this year. The worst case scenario for Bama is that they lose while South Carolina and MSU win. Even worse would be if Vandy wins, giving the SEC another bowl-eligible teams and 9 teams with 7 or more wins. A 6-win Bama team with a 4 game losing streak is not a particularly attractive bowl team, with the one plus being that the Bama fans usually travel well.

Auburn is almost an afterthought right now, but that just means even more pressure is on them to win this one. You don't want to be the team that lost to the team that lost to ULM the week before. They're also playing for bowl position, and will almost certainly get a New Year's Day bowl if they win here. A loss here could send them to Shreveport.

Both teams are under a lot of pressure in this one. A Bama win takes some of the sting out of the loss to ULM and ends Auburn's 5 year winning streak in this series. It also embarrasses Auburn and sends them to a weak bowl. A Bama loss may end their season, and would definitely make this an unabashed failure of a season, and give them tons of negative momentum going into the offseason.

My Last Word on "The Call"

I've read and heard a lot of criticism of Les Miles' decision to throw for the end zone with less than :10 to play against Auburn, and the more I think about it, and the more I analyze the tape, the more I think it was a darn brilliant move.

OK, maybe not brilliant. What I would have done would have been to call timeout with :40 left and set up a play to get a first down, and then take a few shots towards the end zone. But, if you take that kind of play out of the equation, the decision to take one shot to the end zone and, if necessary, a field goal attempt, was great.

An acquaintance here was criticizing Miles, and was wondering how I could stand to have a coach who was so stupid. I gave him the timeline of the play (the call gets to the huddle at :18; the snap comes at :09; the ball is thrown at :07; Byrd catches it at :04; clocks runs to :01) and told him that under those circumstances, and with a 5th year senior at QB, there was no chance of the clock running out, and if it had, there would have been a video review. He told me, "Most coaches, in that situation, would have run the ball to the middle of the field and called timeout to kick a field goal."

If true, most coaches are damn fools. Here's why:

• College kickers are extremely unreliable. If you saw Ryan Succop of South Carolina, one of the best kickers in the SEC, miss an overtime, tying 41 yard field goal by about 7-10 yards two nights ago, you saw an illustration of how unreliable college kickers are. And he's one of the BEST. Our kicker is middling at best. Every time I see a college coach deliberately decide to put a game in the hands of his kickers, I wonder if that coach actually watches football. I'm not talking about situations where you have one play to win a game here. I'm talking about coaches who get close to the end zone and then decide to run it to the middle and set up a field goal. Those coaches are playing with fire because quite a lot of kicks are shanked or get blocked, or are simply missed.
  
• It was the absolute last thing Auburn was expecting. That gave it a fairly good chance of success, and while the DB on the play was able to keep up with Byrd, he was completely turned around and had absolutely no help. The risk of an interception was minimal (much less, I would say, than the risk of missing a long field goal).
• They were absolutely in control of the timing of the play. As Miles revealed, there was only one read on the play. If there was safety help on Byrd, Flynn was to throw it away. If there was not, Flynn was to fling it to him. And as shown, the ball reached Byrd with :04 to play. Believe it or not, coaches generally have a good idea of how long it takes to run a play, particularly a bang-bang play like that, and they know it doesn't take 9 seconds.
  
• "But what if it was tipped and batted around?" Have you ever seen a ball batted around for 4 seconds? Oh, you have? Have you ever seen a ball batted around for 4 seconds with only two people in the picture? I'm betting you haven't.
• What if Flynn had been sacked? Well, the play was designed to get the ball of quickly, so the risk of that wasn't all that great. But if he had been sacked, we would have called timeout and kicked a field goal.
• In addition to some inherent risks of running a pass play (sack, interception), there was also a good chance that the defender would get a pass interference penalty, setting up a relatively easy field on the final play. In fact, it appears from replays that had the ball fallen incomplete, there very well may have been a flag for interference.
  

What I'm trying to say is that the risks were minimal, and the potential rewards were great. What's more, the risks of NOT taking a shot to the end zone were fairly high, as it would have left us with only a long field goal. One shot. Versus two shots. I don't see how that's a bad thing.

In other news: Rumors continue to swirl about the incident at the Varsity. People claiming inside information say all sorts of things. I'm prepared and ready for anything to happen, but as of right now there is really nothing to report on it.

Auburn: Additional Thoughts

First, let me just say how wrong all the talking heads were about that last play. Miles knew exactly what he was doing with the clock. He decided he wanted one crack at the end zone, followed by a 40 yard field goal attempt. He got the play into Flynn with plenty of time. Flynn took the snap about 2 seconds later than Miles probably would have hoped, but Flynn got the pass away with 7 seconds on the clock. There was PLENTY of time for the pass to fall incomplete and give us a field goal chance. The only reason it got to one second is because the clock operator allowed the time to bleed off after the play was over. If you look at replays, it is clear that there were 4 seconds on the clock when the play was over (see picture). I don't know why the clock kept running, but if it had been important to the game, time would have been added.

It wasn't that gutsy of a call. I'm not sure it was the right call to make, but Miles had perfectly rational reasons for choosing to play it that way. The plan ensured that if we scored, there would be little or no opportunity for Auburn to do anything with it. If I was the coach, I think I would have tried to play a little faster, maybe using my timeout there, and try to get a first down on the play and get a few more plays off. Miles saw it different. He saw an opportunity to get two chances at a game-winning play, the success of either of which would have virtually ended the game. That said, I think he planned for the play to the end zone to be over with about 4 seconds on the clock.

My second thought is that we are not a great team. Don't get me wrong. We are a good team. And we are certainly an exciting team. We're a team with character and personality. What we are not is great. Great teams don't win on last second or last-minute plays. Great teams blow other teams out. We haven't blown out a decent team since Virginia Tech. That's not to say I'm not proud of them. I am. But if we want to lay claim to being "great", we need to start dominating again.

My third thought is that there is no way in hell the hit on Dorsey was legal. I understand that the Auburn boards are aflutter with activity justifying and/or rationalizing the hit, but there's no way. It wasn't in any respect a legal hit. I'll give the player the benefit of the doubt that he was not out to injure Dorsey, particularly if he comes out and says it publicly. I do, however, believe we should make a concerted effort to put pressure on him to do so. I'm going to call into some of the local radio shows to bring up the subject. I think others should do the same. If the kid comes out and says, "I'm sorry it happened, and I didn't mean to do that," I say the controversy is over. But he should do it. You can't hit a person like that and not answer for it. He could have ended Dorsey's season and cost him millions of dollars on a blatantly illegal hit. I think he'd be suspended and fined for it if he was in the NFL.

*I don't know who to credit for the incredible picture that accompanies this entry. I found it in a post by MikeDTiger in this thread over at TigerDroppings. Brilliant!

Auburn: Post Game

I went to bed pretty much right after the game ended, but now I'm up with a baby that decided to throw a temper tantrum. I don't know if or when I'll get back to sleep tonight.

That game. Wow. It's hard to top the Florida game for drama, but that game at least matched it. What's more, I think we finally came alive in the second half and showed the kind of team we're capable of being. After Auburn went up 17-7, we outscored them 23-7 the rest of the way and dominated their offense most of the time. That we almost lost anyway is kind of crazy.

The final touchdown pass to Demetrius Byrd was a phenomenal throw and a phenomenal catch, especially under the circumstances. I strongly disagree with the announcers about the timing. It is clear we would have had 1 to 2 seconds left on the clock to try a field goal if that one had fallen incomplete. The bigger worry is that we would have gotten sacked or gotten the ball intercepted, either of which probably would have ended the game.

I will say, I did not understand Miles' strategy at the time, and I don't understand it now. We had a third down and about 7 with about 35 seconds on the clock from the 22 yard line with a timeout available. I guess Miles decided he wanted one shot to the end zone, and failing that, a last second field goal attempt for the win. With the result unknown beforehand, I sure would have wanted to have a move-the-chains route available as an option, with then a fresh set of downs to take a couple of shots at the end zone.

Les Miles disagrees with me, however, and Les Miles picked up a big win. Meanwhile, I'm sitting here typing with a 7-month-old in my lap.

Some further observations:

• Brandon Lafell is going to be a very good receiver for us, but right now the drops are in his head. Until he gets over this thing, he's a liability to us in the passing game. Unfortunately, the only way for him to get past it is to keep getting throws his way until he catches enough of them to regain his confidence. One is reminded of Steve Sax and his inability to make an easy throw from 2nd base to 1st base back in the '80s and early '90s.
• That hit on Dorsey was dirty. I want to give a player the benefit of the doubt and say that he didn't go out there thinking, "I'm going to spear their best player in the side of the knee," but it's criminal that it happened right in front of the ref and was uncalled. They said on TV that it was just a sprain, but we know how cagey the coaches are about injuries. I sure hope he can come back soon.
• Demetrius Byrd hasn't caught a ton of passes, but he sure has caught some big ones. The 4th down touchdown pass against Florida two weeks ago and the final-seconds touchdown pass against Auburn, a game winner. I questioned the decision to recruit him, but he's been our best receiver outside of Doucet. Once again, Miles is coaching, and I'm typing at 3:45am with a baby in my lap.
• Despite the last Auburn drive, I really think the second half of this game signaled a re-awakening of our defense, which was excellent for most of the game except the first possession and the last possession.
• Matt Flynn played his best game as a Tiger tonight. Three touchdowns, 1 interception, and nearly 10 yards per attempt are numbers that would win you the Heisman Trophy if you got them consistently. And the one interception wasn't his fault at all, and should have been a big completion for a lot of yards, putting him in position to get another touchdown pass. He did well running the ball as well.
• Ryan Perrilloux is still going to be great when he gets his chance to run the offense next year. Tough night tonight, but he'll be fine.
• I really don't know why Auburn kept squib kicking it. We haven't been a particularly dangerous return team all year. They looked back there and saw the little guy and must have thought, "Better keep it away from the guy who looks like a 14 year old. He must be awesome. He's certainly awesome in some respects, but he really hasn't been all that dangerous on kickoff returns this year. Auburn just gifted us great field position after every score.
  

Game Day: Auburn

Yet another fateful day is here, and today marks the 2/3 mark of the season for us. Game 8. It's also, needless to say, Auburn. Everyone with a lick of sense holds a special place in their hearts for hatred of Auburn.

But it's going to be a long day before we get to Auburn. There are only three SEC games on television this week, which is a mild disappointment, especially since USC vs. Vandy is not being televised. Here're my plans for the day:

Now until 11:30am: Various chores and activities, including a trip to the Kentuck Art Festival with my family. There will possibly be a trip to the library as well, and likely a short jaunt to the grocery store to buy milk and other household supplies.

11:30am - 2:30pm: Tennessee at Bama, Lincoln-Financial. If it's not over at 2:30, and if it's still competitive, I'll keep watching. I think Tennessee is the better team, which is strange because I wouldn't have said that two weeks ago at this time. If there is any trend you may notice from my writings, it is that I do not believe the better team necessarily wins every game, and these teams are close enough in talent that you really couldn't make a confident prediction. Plus, Bama's at home, and they hate Tennessee more than the Baptists hate to drink in public. Bama's problem here is that Tennessee's offense is pretty darn explosive. It's also very balanced. They can run with Lamarcus Coker and Arrian Foster, and it can pass with Erik Ainge, who is quietly having the kind of season that might normally make someone a 1st Team All-SEC quarterback. Too bad for him there's a guy named Woodson and a guy like Tebow stealing all the headlines. Bama's defense has been surprisingly good at times, and got something of a preview of this kind of offense when it went against a surprisingly dynamic Ole Miss team. They didn't have much success defensively against Ole Miss though, so they'll have to improve a lot from last week to this week. Bama can win, but it will be tough. They'll need Tennessee to be flat.

An interesting point: If Bama loses to Tennessee, they STILL control their destiny in the West. They will have two SEC losses, but both to Eastern Division opponents. If they win out after that, both Auburn and LSU will have at least two losses, at least one of which will be against a Western Division opponent. Bama would win the West. Further, a win here won't really help Bama in the SEC West, as they'd still have to probably win out in order to win the West.

2:30pm - 6:00 pm: Florida at Kentucky, CBS. I think Kentucky has a real chance here. And yes, I think that in part because of how they played us. They showed real character in beating us. It will be an uphill climb, but I think they got a lot of confidence from that win. Florida's secondary is young, and Kentucky's quarterback is great. That's a recipe for success if you're Kentucky. If Kentucky can bring the physical play the way they did last week on the defensive side of the ball, they're a very good football team.

7:00pm - 8:00pm: Michigan at Illinois, ABC: Go Fightin' Zooks!

8:00pm - midnight: Auburn at LSU, ESPN. Obviously, this is a big game for both teams. I don't think the loser has a prayer in the SEC West, and the winner has a very good chance of holding onto the top spot. Right now, only LSU, Auburn, and Bama control their destinies in the West. Arkansas, Ole Miss, and MSU have no real chance. I think the LSU/Auburn/Bama round-robin that occurs in the next several weeks decides the West, and that LSU and Auburn are both a little better than Bama at this point.

More Auburn

The more I think about this game, the less I have a good feeling about it. Yes, I think we have more talent than Auburn, but we have been making mistakes and playing so poorly lately that I think we are not peaking. We're valleying. Our passing game has been unreliable, and we have turned to running twice as much as we pass. Our defense looked very ordinary against Kentucky, and hasn't dominated an opponent since we played MTSU.

It is certainly possible that the loss to Kentucky will propel us out of our doldrums and motivate us to play a spirited game against arguably our most hated rival.

The good news is that I don't think Auburn is as good as Kentucky, and Kentucky had to play their best game to beat us. The better news is that I do not think Auburn is capable of beating us unless they play at their highest level and we fail to play at our highest level. The bad news is that we haven't played at our highest level in quite some time, and Auburn has.

For what it's worth, put me in the camp that says a) put Perrilloux in the game more and b) use blitzes and press coverage more.

As for Perrilloux, it is clear that he is the more talented QB between he and Flynn. Flynn's more experienced, but he has not been effective. If you look at the conference statistics, Flynn is in the bottom half in terms of his effectiveness. Part of that has certainly been his injured ankle, which allegedly is healed up now. Another part of that has certainly been drops by the receivers, and I can't blame him for that. Perrilloux has simply been much more effective, with the same receivers and the same blockers. Part of that may be that he is a "change up" who only gets specialty plays, but maybe we should be using those plays more.

Last night, I watched the Rutgers vs. South Florida game, and Rutgers gave us some of the help we needed. They did it by sacking the USF quarterback 7 times and pressuring him many more times. They did that by blitzing a lot. I know that QBs are using a lot of quick drops and quick throws to neutralize our rush, but that only intensifies the need to get pressure. We should be taking advantage of their plan to throw quickly by using pressure coverage and not let receivers get into their routes. Tight, press coverage is how you beat a quick passing game, and that frees up more players to rush. Lately, we've been letting QBs have their way in the pocket.

Tomorrow's going to be a very long day, but I'm excited about it. Football is a wonderful sport, and we're still very much in the hunt for the national championship and the conference championship. All we need to do is win. Win our games, and the rest of it should take care of itself.

So What Is the Deal with Corndogs Anyway?

In 1992, The Simpsons (arguably the greatest TV show ever made) aired an episode entitled Homer at the Bat. In this episode, the nuclear power plant was playing a high stakes softball game, and local wealthy, ancient tyrant Monty Burns hired several ringers from Major League Baseball to stack the odds in his favor.

One of the players hired was Don Mattingly, whom Mr. Burns repeatedly told to shave his sideburns, even though he didn't have any sideburns. Finally, Mattingly presents himself to Mr. Burns with the sides of his head entirely shaved off. Mr. Burns still tells Mr. Baseball, "I told you to get rid of those sideburns." Mattingly responds "I don't know what you think sideburns are, but..." and quits the team.

The humor comes from the confused and exasperated responses of Don Mattingly, who is repeatedly admonished for something that is clearly untrue, until he decides to simply give up rather than continue defending himself.

I feel the same is true of the standard Auburn refrain of calling LSU fans "corndogs". It is so bizarre and out of place that it, in its own way, becomes really funny. If you ask an Auburn fan why they call us "corndogs", they'll respond, "because they smell like corndogs."

A little background. Corndogs are not, in any sense of the word, a typical Louisiana food. In fact, I do not know a single Louisianian who eats corn dogs regularly. I for one doubt I've had one since my age was in single digits. Yet, despite this, Auburn fans insist we smell of corndogs.

I've been told that this epithet originated when Auburn visited Oklahoma some decades ago, and learned that Oklahoma fans called Nebraska fans "the corndogs" and said they smelled of corndogs. Nebraska grows a lot of corn. They liked the insult so much they decided to import it back to the SEC and apply it to LSU, where corn is not a big staple crop or a major part of the diet. Its sheer inappropriateness has bewildered LSU fans ever since.

It's like if LSU fans decided to start calling Bama fans "the hippies" because of their progressive attitudes towards race relations and the environment.

If you go to an LSU game, you will see endless tailgates featuring a variety of gumbos, jambalayas, etouffes, soups, grilled meats, and seafood featuring local ingredients prepared in distinctly local ways. And in response to this variegated culinary attack on the senses, the Auburn fans, bizarrely, decided we smelled of corndogs. It's strangely brilliant in how it cuts right at our pride in local culinary achievement. Despite our famous skill in combining ingredients and adding heat, it is all a waste because we may as well have just had corndogs for all of its effect on outsiders. I don't know if they meant it to be this complicated of a form of humor, but that's how I see it.

Anyone like corndogs?

Alright, we eventually have to get over the loss to the Wildcats. There are still more goals for the season, and we control our destiny for all of our goals except the National Championship, for which we need a little help. But it all starts with winning the rest of our games, and if we play well we can certainly win the rest of them.

We start with Auburn in a Tiger Stadium night game. Auburn has been a bit schizophrenic this year, starting out the season almost completely unable to move the ball. Through their first 3 games, they averaged 301 yards per game. Starting with the big win against Florida, they have averaged more like 340 yards per game and have substantially outgained their opponents each week.

Beating Auburn starts with being able to move the ball against their quick, undersized defense. I know that Auburn had some significant injuries on their defense, but I do not know if those guys are going to return for this game or not. If not, that certainly makes things easier, but probably no easier than it should have been against Kentucky.

Offensively, Auburn throws a "balanced" attacked at you. It's balanced in the sense that neither the running phase nor the passing phase has been particularly great, but things have definitely picked up for them lately. You could say it comes from the return of starting tailback Brad Lester, but he's not exactly tearing it up out there, averaging less than 5.0 yards per carry. Perhaps he is causing defenses to key on him, and he's opening up the passing game, which has also looked a lot more effective lately.

Early in the season, Auburn fans were calling for the benching of Brandon Cox, but he's been effective lately. They've found a receiver in Rod Smith, and they throw to backs out of the backfield at times. And yes, like other teams, they run a 2-quarterback system, with an experienced passer and a less experienced runner coming in at times.

I think we should beat Auburn, as long as we play competent football. I don't think we played competent football last week. We need to avoid dumb penalties, catch catchable balls, and avoid turnovers. If we can do those things, I think we win this game. If we have another week where big plays are overturned based on penalties or where we drop a ton of passes, it's going to be another long week.

Game Day: Florida

There's a very big game today, but there's a lot between here and there. This really is the start of the most important run of the season. We play all four of our four best remaining teams on the schedule in the next 5 weeks. Florida, then Kentucky, then Auburn, then a week off, then Bama. If we can get through this, the schedule opens up a little bit, giving us teams that appear to be a notch below those guys: La Tech, Ole Miss, and Arkansas.

Anyway, here's the plan, subject to change because we have a house guest today.

Now - 9:00am: Whatever comes up.

9:00am - 11:00am: ESPN GameDay, broadcasting from LSU. While I normally avoid this show like the plague, I will watch it when it's at Baton Rouge.

11:00am - 11:30am: I'll watch the first few minutes of Wisconsin at Illinois on ESPN. I have soft spot for Ron Zook, who I think got jobbed at Florida and doesn't get enough credit for building the senior-heavy team that won the national championship last year.

11:30am - 2:30pm: Vandy at Auburn, Lincoln-Financial. Auburn looks to avoid the let down against Vandy. All the classic elements of a let down are there. They're coming off a big win. They're playing at home at 11:30 in the morning, when the crowd won't be buzzing. They're playing a decent team that you'd be tempted to think is not very good. And finally, they don't really have that great of a team themselves. I don't make predictions about games I expect to be competitive, so I won't here. I'm just saying that the prospects of a let down and upset are better than you often see.

2:30pm - 6:00pm: Georgia at Tennessee, CBS. All games in the East are big because the teams are so even. Here, almost halfway through the season, there are five teams with a legitimate shot at winning the East. These are two of them, each with one conference loss. This game may be an elimination game in the East. The loser will have lost two games to other Eastern Division teams, and so will need the other teams to lose 3 conference games in order to pass them in the standings. Neither team controls its destiny, but the winner needs only a little help to win the division. (Georgia would need South Carolina to lose a game, and Tennessee would need Florida to lose a game).

6:00pm - 7:00pm: Yoga. Meditation. OK, that's not true, but I'll probably try to rest up a bit before the LSU game.

7:00pm - 11:00pm: What do you think? Florida at LSU, CBS. There's really no more to say that hasn't been said about it. We know what we're up against. We know what bullets we have in the gun. It's time to play the game.

The landscape of the SEC will be drawn in much more detail today, but it won't be finished for a while.

Around the SEC Preview

I have a guest blogging assistant this morning, as my 6 1/2 month old daughter prematurely decided she no longer wanted to be in bed.

This will be a pretty good week in the SEC, but it's partially offset by a strange TV schedule, and the failure of ESPN to air one of the more interesting matchups.

Mississippi State at South Carolina, 11:30am, Lincoln-Financial. Too bad I'll miss most or all of this game due to the LSU game's 11:00am scheduling. South Carolina's strong running game will have a test against MSU's strong defense. Unfortunately for South Carolina, their best defensive player, senior LB Jasper Brinkley, was lost for the season with a knee injury sustained against LSU. You really hate to see that for a guy who had emerged as a team leader and arguably his team's best player. He'll be back, but probably not before taking his skills to the NFL. He could apply for a medical redshirt if he wants, and come back next year. I think.

This year in the SEC, at least early, we're seeing a couple of elite teams (LSU and Florida) followed by a big pack of teams that are more or less even, all with their own strengths and weaknesses, but all of whom are more than capable of beating each other on any particular day. MSU and South Carolina are among these teams, and both have picked up a big win in the conference. It will be interesting to see if any of these teams break out of the pack and emerge as a 3rd power in the SEC. So far, the best candidates for it seem to be South Carolina and Kentucky, which is strange and exciting.

MSU's problem is a lack of dynamic offense, and I don't see that changing this year. Their offense will limit them all year. They won't be able to put up a lot of points on anyone or score a lot of quick points. They have a good running game, but they don't have a Darren McFadden on their roster, and their passing game is rather poor. They have to grind out yards on the ground 4-8 yards at a time, get turnovers, and play tough defense week after week in order to win. That's hard to do and it will take its toll. Any defensive slips or offensive turnovers will put this team in a deep hole in any given game. For this reason, while I think they're capable of beating anyone out there, they're going to have a tough time actually pulling it off consistently.

Ole Miss at Georgia, noon, no television that I know of. Strangely, this game is being played at noon with no television coverage (I think). It's actually a pretty interesting matchup. Georgia's solid running game and inconsistent passing game will be going up against Ole Miss's young, talented, but thin defense. Ole Miss's solid running game and overachieving passing game will be going up against Georgia's solid defense. Georgia's the better team, but they're coming off a big, draining, emotional win against Bama. Can they respond? Ole Miss proved they can stay with a very good team that isn't up for them. Either that or they proved they are a better team than we thought.

Florida Atlantic at Kentucky: The less said the better. Alright, not really. Kentucky obviously is doing some things right. They're 4-0. They're ranked. They have an explosive offense. But they still don't have much of a defense, and they're not a very physical team. As such, I think they're a threat to be upset by anyone who comes along, including Florida Atlantic. Will it happen? Probably not, but it could. I just think a team like this is a bad game waiting to happen. When it happens, it will be interesting to see if they have what it takes to a) win that game anyway, and b) recover from it mentally.

Alabama vs. Florida State (neutral site), 4:00pm CBS. In another strange and unusual television twist, the CBS game is at 4:00 rather than at 2:30pm. This means it will probably interfere with the 7:00 ESPN game. Bama is another one of those roughly equal teams in the big pack this year, and they've shown signs of breaking out of it. The running game is much better than expected, as is the defense. The passing game has struggled, but the potential remains there. If I was a big Bama fan, I would be very concerned about the extremely physical games my team is playing, especially with so little depth on defense. Those big players can only get worn out so many times before they struggle to come back from it week after week. They've played two games like that in succession, and this game will be another one. That will take its toll.

Florida State is very beatable. They just aren't a very good team at all. Their offense has struggled, getting only 200 yards passing and about 130 yards rushing per game. The only time I actually watched them play, the first half against Clemson, their offensive line was very poor. Supposedly it's improved a lot. They'll have a pretty good test against the Bama defense, which has caused teams problems this season.

North Texas at Arkansas, 6:00pm no television. Eh, who cares?

Eastern Michigan at Vandy, 6:00pm, no television. Vandy's drive for 6 wins continues. This one will be #3. They'll need to figure out how to win at least one more SEC game though. I still think Vandy is a pretty good team, but so is everyone else they still have to play in the SEC. Those other teams are a lot more accustomed to winning than is Vandy.

Auburn at Florida, 7:00pm ESPN. This is the marquee SEC matchup of the week, and it has a line of about 18 points in favor of Florida. Alright, Auburn's not a very good team. I don't think I'm telling anyone anything they don't already know. However, this is a team with a lot of playmakers on defense, good coaches, and an offense that is.. uh.. waiting to break out. They have talent at running back and offensive line. They're just very young at those positions. They're improving weekly. If they can take that big leap forward and become the playmakers that Auburn needs, they will do some things.

The bigger problem is the passing game, and there appears to be no solution to that problem on the horizon. At least not for this year. They simply need an infusion of talent, and that doesn't often come mid-season. Like MSU, they'll have to grind out wins with the running game and the defense.

Week 4 Around the SEC

In a week that saw only one significant upset on the national level (Michigan over Penn State), the action in the SEC was probably the most exciting stuff all weekend. The LSU-South Carolina game wasn't the most thrilling in the world, but it was the highest profile game of the week. Here's what happened this week around the SEC:

Georgia 26
Bama 23 (OT)

This was expected to be a good game, and it didn't disappoint in the least. These two teams played this game tough the entire time they were on the field. Georgia sprinted out to a 10-0 lead, but didn't appear comfortable at any time except for their first drive, in which they scored a quick touchdown after marching the length of the field with ease. Bama didn't give them anything easy the rest of the game.

I said of this game:

They key to this game is Georgia's young, talented, but inconsistent quarterback Matthew Stafford. When he's good, Georgia is a very good team. When he's bad, Georgia is a rather bad team. He was good against Oklahoma State and bad against South Carolina. If Bama's defense can keep him off balance, they'll have a good weekend. If they let Stafford get into a good rhythm and stay there, it's going to be a long night.

Stafford had an OK night, but neither great nor terrible. He was 19 for 35 with 224 yards passing, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He avoided getting sacked. He had a one-game GTQBPI of 5.65, which is not great, but is not bad for a BIG game. He was not really the key to the game, however, because he had neither a great game nor a bad game. The key was Georgia's solid running attack, which put up 153 tough yards and wore down the Bama defense.

Kentucky 42
Arkansas 29

This was another one of those back-and-forth type games. Early, it looked like Arkansas would run away with it, as they scored they jumped out to a 20-7 lead. Then Kentucky made a furious rally to get it to 21-20 in the 3rd quarter. Arkansas scored the next 9 points on a safety and a touchdown return of the ensuing free kick before Kentucky scored the final 21 points of the game. I'm sorry I didn't get to watch this game, but I was watching the Bama-Georgia game instead.

Jones and McFadden torched the Kentucky defense as expected for 306 yards rushing between them, plus Felix Jones returned that free kick for a touchdown. Surprisingly, despite 338 yards rushing, almost 500 total yards of offense, and touchdowns by both the special teams AND the defense, Arkansas still didn't put up a ton of points. Having outgained Kentucky by 60 yards and scored two non-offensive touchdowns, I don't really understand why they lost so badly. Having not watched the game, I don't really have any insight.

But I have some takeaway lessons:

1. neither of these teams have good defenses.
2. both of these teams are very dangerous, but also beatable.

Since we play both of these teams, and Kentucky is likely to be ranked when we play them, we need to watch out.

Florida 30
Ole Miss 24

It's hard to imagine me getting it more wrong than this. Here is what I said:

The bad news is that Florida is so much better than Ole Miss that we won't really get an opportunity to gauge how good Ole Miss is.... I think Florida will be able to find a LOT of mismatches.

Blake Adams played a whale of a ballgame, with over 300 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, and a one-game GTQBPI of 9.03. That's outstanding against a team as good as Florida. It gave his team a chance to pull off a major upset, but in the end there was just too much Tim Tebow. Between his running and his passing, he accounted for 427 yards of offense and 2 touchdowns. His GTQBPI was 8.31, and he either ran or passed 51 times on the game. That's good enough to win the coveted GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Player of the Week for the 4th consecutive time.

Auburn 55
New Mexico State 20

Auburn stops the bleeding at least temporarily by getting an easy win over NMSU. Here's what I said of this game:

Keep an eye on that New Mexico State-Auburn score. Don't be surprised if New Mexico State has a shot at this game in the 4th quarter. Auburn's offense is struggling immensely due to poor blocking and lack of playmakers at the skill positions. NMSU plays that pass-happy Hal Mumme offense. If they can avoid giving Auburn short fields and can find a way to put up 3 touchdowns, they have a real chance here.

NMSU put up a few points, but they also committed 6 turnovers. They actually only outgained by about 40 yards on the game, but those short fields killed their chances. Auburn QBs had a solid game, even if they weren't spectacular. Next week, they get Florida but also get Brad Lester back. Let's see if that provides the magic cure to Auburn's ills.

Mississippi State 31
Gardner Webb 15

OK, they let a team from the former Division I-AA put up 15 points on them and stay within 2 scores. No one ever said MSU had a dynamic high-powered offense. They're going to have to grind out wins, even against weak teams, but they just ground out their 3rd win. In truth though, they jumped out to a 31-3 lead, and then gave up some scores when the game was out of reach. They need to figure out how to win 3 more to get to a bowl game. It won't be easy.

Tennessee 48
Arkansas State 27

Arkansas State stayed within striking distance for most of the game, but never could quite do more than keep it close. Before you start thinking about how Tennessee must have looked bad, keep in mind that Arkansas State gave Texas all they wanted earlier in the season.

That's all I have.

We're now in 1st place in the SEC West thanks to Bama's loss. We're the only undefeated SEC West team. The East has two undefeated teams in Kentucky and Florida. No, this isn't basketball.

Game Day: MTSU

OK, it's Game Day again, this time for the Blue Raiders of MTSU. This will be a first for GeauxTuscaloosa, a football game that I will not be seeing. As explained earlier in the week, I will not be able to be home for this game. I'll be at a wedding for a friend. Yes, it's a friend who isn't interested in football.

I won't be able to listen to much of it on the radio, but I may be able to catch the second half on the way home. That means there won't be any "First Replay" or "Second Replay" posts. I'll have to figure out other things to talk about.

I'll also miss all of the second most interesting game in the SEC this week: Alabama vs. Arkansas. I said we'd find out more about Bama with their matchup against Vandy, and we did. We found out that Bama is a legitimate bowl team who is a threat to beat any team on their schedule. This week, we will find out even more. We'll find out if they're a legitimate threat in the SEC West, or are they just spoilers trying to get to the Music City Bowl.

So, here's my schedule of the day:

Now to 11:30am: Avoid GameDay on ESPN like the plague. Do some errands. Walk the dog. There is no interesting 11:00am game, so skip that.

11:30-2:30pm: Mississippi State at Auburn: Here in Tuscaloosa, sports talk radio has been absolutely dominated by criticism of Auburn this week. The Auburn fans are very upset at how bad their team has looked the first two weeks. I think highly of Tommy Tuberville's coaching abilities, but there is no one to blame but him for the fact that Auburn has such a poor offensive line and a lack of playmaking wide receivers. He's been recruiting and coaching these guys for their entire careers, and if they didn't recruit good receivers and offensive linemen 3 and 4 years ago such that he does not have that wave of juniors and seniors ready to take the reins of the offense, that's his own fault. Auburn fans are right to criticize him for it.

If you're 7 years into your tenure as coach and a true freshman is starting on the offensive line, either that freshman must be incredible or you have a lot to answer for. It looks like Tubby has a lot to answer for.

With such an inexperienced offense, this is a team that is likely to improve considerably over the course of the season, but for right now they're vulnerable, and it's my conclusion from observing these teams that MSU matches up pretty well with Auburn. They have a pretty good defensive line that can take advantage of Auburn's inexperienced offensive front and a very good left tackle who may be able to neutralize Auburn's best player, Quentin Groves. If Michael Henig can avoid the mistakes that doomed them against LSU, they have a shot to win this game.

If MSU wins, it's going to be a VERY interesting week in Alabama.

2:30-4:30, Tennessee at Florida. This is a very interesting game, because we don't really know how good Florida is. They've beaten up on some weak teams early in the year, but haven't faced a real test. Then again, we don't know how good Tennessee is either. Their defense certainly looked very vulnerable against Cal, and now they're missing a starting cornerback to injury.

I think Tennessee will get its points. The questions are

1. Can Florida's inexperienced and untested defense hold Tennessee's offense to a reasonable number of points, giving its offense a chance to win the game?
2. Has Tennessee's suspect defense improved as a result of its embarrassment against Cal enough to hold Tebow and company to a reasonable point total to give Lamarcus Coker and Erik Ainge a chance to win?

4:30-7:00pm: Drive to Jackson, Mississippi. I don't know what, if anything will be on the radio.

7:00pm-9:00pm or so: Attend wedding reception: The wedding itself is a small, very private family affair to which I am not invited (neither is anyone else who isn't related, from what I understand. The reception is where the action is. I decided not to get a hotel, because my wife and child will not be there. My wife was invited, but it was not possible to bring the baby because the venue is an art museum, with no children allowed in the building. That would have meant we'd have to get a sitter for the baby, and the whole thing just seemed way to fraught with danger and difficulty. Therefore, I'm going alone, and I'm coming back the same night.

9:00pm-whenever: I will be driving home, hoping to catch the second half of the game on the radio. As I get closer to Tuscaloosa, WWL will likely go out, and I'll switch over to the Bama-Arky game if it's still on.

The rumors around the message board is that Flynn is walking around in a boot and either a) is not ready to go, or b) shouldn't play and risk more serious injury. If so, it looks like Ryan Perrilloux may get his long-awaited first start. Stay tuned.

SEC Preview plus Matt Flynn

I can't help but notice that comments have slowed down considerably since I started posting Bullwinkle-related images at the front of blog entries. If there's a correlation there, I'm highly disappointed in my readership. Come on! It's Bullwinkle!

I woke up this morning to this headline on Tiger Bait: "Flynn Questionable". Miles says he's day to day, and that we'll know more about whether he'll play tomorrow. Also questionable is strong safety Craig Steltz.

Around the SEC:

Mississippi State at Auburn, 11:30am, Lincoln Financial. I know I've said that I doubted MSU would win a conference game all season, but allow me to present this game as a potential upset. Having watched both of these teams play, I think MSU matches up pretty well against them. Auburn has a great right side defensive end in Quentin Groves, but MSU matches up with a left tackle (Michael Brown) who held Kirston Pittman in check for a whole game the week before Pittman earned SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week honors for his performance against Virginia Tech. Auburn's offensive line is VERY suspect, and MSU's defensive line is quite good. If Michael Henig can take care of the ball and if Michael Brown can hold Quentin Groves in check, MSU has a shot here.

Western Carolina at Georgia, noon: Georgia gets a salve for its post-South Carolina wounds by playing a D1-AA school that Bama absolutely trounced. Next week: Bama.

Tennessee at Florida, 2:30pm CBS: Finally, a CBS afternoon game. Tennessee's defense looked pretty bad against Cal, and frankly Tim Tebow looks like he's going to be the hardest person to defend in the entire conference this year. He's going to give defensive coordinators fits all year. I don't think there is a single person in the conference, not even Darren McFadden, who is so heavily integrated into his team's offense than is Tim Tebow for Florida. I think to beat Florida's offense, you have to play disciplined assignment-based defense; you need corners who can cover good receivers man-to-man; you need defensive linemen who can penetrate consistently; and you need linebackers fast and athletic enough to stop runners from getting to the corner. If your cornerbacks need to provide run support, they'll fake a run and throw it to the receiver the corner isn't covering.

The good news, if you're Tennessee, is that it looks like Florida's defense is going to give up a lot of points. This really is an interesting matchup, and it could get very high scoring. Tennessee's defense is going to have to play better than it did against Cal, but honestly Florida doesn't have the kind of speed that burned Tennessee repeatedly. I'm not saying Florida has no speed, but Cal had all-world type speed.

Arkansas at Bama, 5:45 ESPN: Bama has looked better than expected, but they haven't faced a guy like McFadden. This will be a tremendous test of their questionable front seven. Even without Marcus Monk, Arky is a bigger test than Vandy. Bama will get a big boost from their home crowd, but if McFadden or Jones breaks off a big run early, that could take the crowd out of it. On the offensive side of the ball, Bama really has to get John Parker Wilson rolling. He doesn't have a touchdown pass yet and is averaging only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. He's been one of the least effective QBs in the conference so far this season. I don't know much about Arkansas's defense, but they'll probably need Wilson to have a break out game if they hope to win this one.

Another interesting stat about John Parker Wilson: he has not scored a rushing touchdown either this season or last season. He was the only full-time starting quarterback in the SEC last year not to score a rushing touchdown last year. So far, five SEC quarterbacks have scored rushing touchdowns.

Ole Miss at Vandy, 6:00pm: Vandy, a team I maintain should be pretty good, tries to recover from a pretty devastating loss to Bama last week. They're better than Ole Miss, or at least they're better than the Ole Miss team that gave up about 1000 yards to Missouri. If not for some very untimely penalties and an injury to their QB, last week's game could have been different. If Nickson is healthy, look for him to try to take revenge on Ole Miss.

South Carolina State at South Carolina, 6:00pm: Honestly, what is there to say that hasn't already been said. It's "State" versus "U". What more do you need?

Louisville at Kentucky, 6:30pm, ESPN Classic: That's right, it's on ESPN Classic. What does this say about this matchup? Nothing, really, but it is actually quite an interesting looking game. Frankly, despite Louisville's lofty top 10 ranking, they still have a lot to prove after giving up 42 points to Middle Tennessee State University. Granted, they scored 58 points against MTSU, and Kentucky is not known for stellar defense, but they can't afford to leave receivers open the way they did. If you don't believe it, check out the picture to the left. Neither of these teams has really proven to be any good this year. I suppose that's what they mean when they describe this as a "Credibility Game". The winner gets to say, in all honesty, that they've accomplished something. Good luck Cats.

Week 2: Around the SEC

South Carolina at Georgia: After looking very mediocre against ULL last week, South Carolina showed a little of why I predicted they'd be a factor in the SEC East last night. South Carolina rode a solid running game and a stout defense to a tense, ugly victory over UGA. They now sit alone in first place in the East. Matthew Stafford, who I think has the most potential of any young QB in the conference, looked very, very mediocre last night in completing less than half of his passes for less than 5 yards per attempt. Blake Mitchell wasn't great, but he was better than Stafford.

Bama at Vandy: I may have to revise my opinion of Bama. They looked pretty darn good against a team I think is pretty darn good themselves. Freshman running back Terry Grant made a bid for the GeauxTuscaloosa SEC Offensive Player of the Week in rushing for 173 yards and 2 touchdowns. Some untimely penalties early in the game really hurt Vandy, taking away big plays, and they never recovered. The Bama defense looked better than advertised, and the running game is making up for a passing game that has been disappointing so far.

Troy at Florida: The Tim Tebow show continues, as he scored 5 touchdowns (3 passing, 2 rushing) and racked up 329 yards of total offense. He was the leading rusher on the game for either team. He is the second consecutive recipient of the GeauxTuscaloosa SEC Offensive Player of the Week (I don't give out a Defensive Player of the Week award because stats are too hard to find). That Florida defense, however, gives up some points. We'll see what happens next week and see if Florida is a legit contender.

Missouri at Ole Miss: A great effort by BenJarvis Green-Ellis goes to waste. He rushed for a whopping 236 yards in a losing effort. Ole Miss just couldn't stop Missouri at all. Chase Daniel's line at QB was 31 for 43 with 330 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Plus, he rushed for 66 yards, as Ole Miss gave up 559 yards of total offense. I honestly thought Ole Miss's defense would be pretty solid this year. Guess I was wrong.

Southern Miss at Tennessee: Tennessee overcame a slow start to pull away at the end. Erik Ainge had a pretty good line. He's been a solid QB his whole career, but has gotten a rap of not playing well in the big games. NEWS FLASH: No SEC QB played well against Florida or LSU in the last couple years. He'll get a chance for redemption next week in a game that will probably make or break his legacy as a college QB.

Mississippi State at Tulane: Michael Henig had a solid game following up his horrid stat line against LSU. He was 21 of 31 for 223 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. The Bulldogs won handily.

South Florida at Auburn: Something stinks, and it's Auburn's offense. If not for Michael Henig's horrible game against LSU, Brandon Cox would be the lowest-rated QB in the league. Cox was 16 of 35 for 165 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions in an overtime loss to the Bulls. Neither of Auburn's two big rushers had Auburn averaged more than 4.4 yards per carry. I didn't watch any of this game, but I suspect the culprit once again was poor blocking.

Kent State at Kentucky: I have nothing interesting to say about this contest.

Most Productive QB of the Week: Tim Tebow's GTQBPI (GeauxTuscaloosa Quarterback Productivity Index) was 10.21 yards per play, which was the best in the league among starters. Perrilloux's was 16.21 yards per play in a backup role. If he keeps playing at that high of a level, I'll have to start ranking him based on cumulative stats.

Least Productive QB of the Week: Chris Nickson of Vandy was 5 for 18 for 67 yards and one interception, and was in the negatives in rushing, earning him a 1.43 yards per play GTQBPI. Brandon Cox thanks him.

Week 2 - Conference-Wide Preview

With gratuitous Bullwinkle image.

OK, Week 1 is now officially behind us. There is no more Week 1, except in retrospective. Preparation for Week 2 is upon us in earnest. Here is your preview of the coming week. After this paragraph, I won't mention cupcake games like Florida v. Troy and Kentucky v. Kent State again.

OK, I'll mention Kentucky v. Kent State again. Didn't Kent State change its name to Kent? Is it sort of like "Siamese Twins" where people know that isn't their real name but simply refuse to call them by their real name? Anyway, I shouldn't call this a cupcake game. Kent beat Iowa State last week. But anyway, that's the last you'll hear of that.

Teams Hoping to Get A Rare Win

Mississippi State at Tulane: Who did Tulane have to kill to get two SEC teams to go on the road to play them? Having no idea how good Tulane is, MSU had still better beat this team, because I'm doubtful they'll be able to win any SEC game.

Ole Miss at Missouri: Whenever I was watching Mizzou v. Illinois, Mizzou looked great. Chase Daniel looked llike a skilled QB with good receivers. Whenever I changed to channel to watch another game, Illinois scored points. It was the strangest thing. Illinois looked completely overmatched every time I was watching them play, yet almost won the game. Anyway, if Ole Miss is going to be competitive against the good teams of the SEC, they had better beat Mizzou pretty convincingly.

TV Guide

Alabama at Vandy, 11:30am Lincoln-Financial: To me, this is the most anticipated game of the early season schedule. Here is what I keep telling anyone who'll listen (so I've told like 2 or 3 people). Vandy's best five or six players are just as good as Bama's best five or six players. Earl Bennett is just as good as DJ Hall. Chris Nickson is just as good as John Parker Wilson. Chris Williams is just as good as Andre Smith. Jonathan Goff is just as good as Simeone Castille. Brian Stamper is just as good as Antoine Caldwell. I don't know how the rest of Bama's team stacks up to the rest of Vandy's team, but the best players are pretty much even. As far as I can tell then, these two teams are evenly matched. And it's being played in Nashville. Watch out.

Once again, there is no 2:30pm game. When does that start?

South Carolina at Georgia, 5:45 ESPN2: I've been hyping up SC for a while, but I'm not feeling good about that right now. ULL played Carolina tough, and Georgia looked surprisingly good against Oklahoma State. Unless Blake Mitchell comes back and makes this team a lot better (possible), Georgia sure looks like the superior team right now.

Virginia Tech at LSU, 8:15 ESPN: OK, we all know about this one. It's a matchup of two top-10 teams out of conference. We've already talked about this pretty extensively, but I'll say something else right now. Watch out for Virginia Tech's tight ends. They made a lot of catches against ECU, and their wideouts pretty much disappeared. We don't play a lot of SEC teams that emphasize the tight end in the passing game, so we better have a plan for it. Of course, if their offensive line doesn't do better, it probably won't matter. Then again, the same can be said of us.

South Florida at Auburn, 8:00 ESPN2: Why do we keep doing this? Why do we keep scheduling quality SEC football games against each other? Is it Auburn's fault? It has to be because they've been involved in it twice in the first two weeks. They say that a team makes its biggest improvement between Week 1 and Week 2. Auburn had better hope that's true, because they were lucky to escape last week with a win. If their OL doesn't improve, Brandon Cox won't be their QB for long, and I wouldn't want to be the guy who replaces him.

Other Games

Southern Miss at Tennessee, not on television: Trap game! Tennessee faces a half-decent mid-major between their loss to Cal and their traditional rivalry with Florida.

TCU at Texas, CSTV 6:00pm: I think I have the TV outlet right, but I might not. These are two ranked teams, and TCU is supposed to be legitimately good. If SC vs Georgia looks like a laugher, change over to this one and see if an upset is possible.

Middle Tennessee State at Louisville, 6:00pm Thursday, ESPN: If you feel the need to scout MTSU, a future LSU opponent, check out this game. They lost 27-14 to Florida Atlantic last week. That's all I really need to know, but I might watch some of it anyway.

Notes on Week 1

After watching a lot of football on Saturday, here are some notes:

1. LSU played dominating defense without really giving VT anything to prepare for. We rarely blitzed, and when we did it was usually a simple linebacker blitz. We only brought one corner blitz, and that was way at the end of the game, and Jai Eugene was the blitzer. We stayed in either a 4-3-4 or a 4-2-5 the whole game, with McCray playing like a linebacker, and we played a lot of zone. I'm sure Bo Pelini will be giving VT a lot of different looks, with lots more blitzes and lots more bluff blitzes.
2. Other top teams had much more smooth and fluid passing games than we did. We seemed to have trouble getting wide receivers the ball in space, where other teams were able to do it with some regularity. Like I said before, I think our five receiver sets with everyone making short to intermediate routes clogged the field pretty good. If we have 5 wide receivers in the pattern, I think at least 2 of them need to running a 20+ yard pattern if for no other reason than to clear the intermediate field of defenders.
3. Virginia Tech did not look good in their first game. Their defense didn't tackle well. Their offensive line didn't open any holes in the rushing game. The pass protection broke down frequently. If they hadn't gotten that defensive touchdown, this game would have been a fight to the finish.
4. Using GeauxTuscaloosa's statistical analysis for QBs, the best SEC quarterback of the week was Tim Tebow of Florida. He made 17 pass attempts for an even 300 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also had 38 yards rushing on 8 attempts with one additional touchdown. Those numbers gave him an eye-popping GTQBPI (GeauxTuscaloosa Quarterback Productivity Index) of 16.72 yards per play. Chris Nickson of Vandy had the second highest at 11.72 yards per play. The worst of the week was obviously Michael Henig, who was actually well into negative numbers. Matt Flynn scored 7.0 yards per play, good for 6th among starting QBs.
5. Of course, Florida was playing Western Kentucky, and from the little bit of the game I saw, they really opened up the offense. They made a lot of downfield throws. I think I remember even seeing a flee-flicker. Vandy played 1-AA Richmond. I'm sorry, that's "Football Championship Subdivision" team Richmond. The knock on Nickson was that he threw a lot of interceptions last year, and got most of his passing yards by throwing to one receiver: Earl Bennett. Nickson didn't throw any interceptions, but he threw 221 of his 281 passing yards and 3 of his 4 touchdowns to Earl Bennett. I maintain that if any team has the corners to cover Earl Bennett, Nickson will struggle in the passing game.
6. Speaking of "Football Championship Subdivision", assuming both finish undefeated, who would be more deserving of a BCS bowl berth? App State or Hawaii?
   
7. Auburn got a little lucky beating K-State. Their offensive line was horrible, but their defense played pretty well. With K-State down by 3 points late in the game, and with Quentin Groves beating their left tackle play after play, the K-State playcaller steadfastly refused to give the left tackle any help at all. In the decisive play of the game, Groves sprinted right past the left tackle and got a free shot on the QB, forcing a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. In a game where K-State had outplayed Auburn most of the night, they ended up losing by 10, thanks in part to some shoddy playcalling by someone who apparently wasn't watching the game.
8. I didn't watch much of the Bama game, but it looks like they have some speedy and shifty running backs. Considering the competition, John Parker Wilson didn't exactly put up stellar numbers (GTQBPI of 7.38), but Terry Grant routinely was able to get to the corner and turn it upfield for a big gain.
9. My pet team in the East, South Carolina, didn't exactly light it up against Louisiana-Lafayette. Maybe Blake Mitchell being suspended is what did it. They will need Mitchell, and they will need him to be good, if they're going to compete in the East, because Florida looked awesome and Georgia looked better than expected.
10. I don't put a lot of stock into the Tennessee loss at Cal. Yeah, Tennessee's defense looked awful trying to stop all those speedy Cal players, but Cal is the 2nd best team in the Pac-10, and they were playing at home. Tennessee is probably at best the 4th best team in the SEC right now, and they may be much lower than that. Erik Ainge, by the way, looked pretty good until Tennessee got behind and they went almost exclusively to the pass. I'd like to say it would have gone better for Tennessee if they'd had Lamarcus Coker, who may be the 3rd best running back in the SEC, but Coker wouldn't have helped their defense any.

Looking forward to next week.

SEC TV Guide - Week 1

I think this is a nice idea for a regular feature. Let's preview which SEC matchups will be on television for week 1:

LSU at Mississippi State - Thursday, August 30, 7:00pm, ESPN

Of course, none of the LSU folks will be missing this game. It's a matchup of arguably the best SEC team against arguably the worst SEC team. But hey, it's US. How can you not watch us?

Western Kentucky at Florida - 11:30am, Lincoln-Financial outlet

Alright, I like the Jefferson-Pi.., I mean Lincoln Financial game. Their crew is solid and best of all knows their SEC football. A lot of people mock the JP guys, but I think it's mostly because they don't like their own team to be playing in the morning. I understand that, but I like getting my Saturday started off with these guys. Besides, I'm usually awake by about 6:00am. I get on here and do this, then run my errands, and then I'm ready for some football.

But I'm not ready for this game. This game will tell us nothing. Because of Tennessee playing on ABC this week, JP gets the 5th best SEC game (rather than the 3rd or 4th), but I suppose it may be interesting seeing whatever they'll show us about the new all-Tebow, all-the-time offense at Florida.

Ole Miss at Memphis - 2:30pm, College Sports TV (?)

OK, this game doesn't really interest me either, and frankly I'm only guessing about the TV outlet. There are three fascinating games Saturday evening that will all be on at the same time. Could they not have put one of them in the 2:30 slot?

If you want to watch this game, watch to see if Ole Miss's young but talented defensive line dominates. If Ole Miss is going to make a move this year, it will start with the defensive line. They have some excellent young defensive linemen including Marcus Tillman, who is emerging as one of the best in the SEC.

Oklahoma State at Georgia - 5:45 ESPN2

Georgia is a mystery. If they're an SEC contender, I think they should handle OSU easily. If they aren't, they could have trouble. Matthew Stafford is the best young QB in the SEC, (that's right, I said it), but the offensive line and receivers are big question marks. It is kind of amazing to me that Georgia has such a good QB and didn't have the quality line to protect him or the receivers for him to throw to. The running backs are also questionable, considering my favorite Georgia running back, Thomas Brown, is coming off a very serious injury.

Watch out for Mikey Henderson for Georgia, who may be the best return man in the conference.

Oklahoma State has a lot of athletes at receiver and running backs. This could be a fun game to watch, especially if you need to scout Georgia. Personally, I don't need to scout them, so I won't watch this game after 6:45 much unless the other ones are blowouts. If you really want to see Georgia, you'll get another chance next week with one of the best matchups of the early season when they go against South Carolina.

Kansas State at Auburn, 6:45pm ESPN

I've previewed this one before, but this game is growing on me. Auburn will have an inexperienced offensive line and inexperienced receivers. If you're going to get Auburn this year, it's best to get them early before their offensive line gets more experienced. If that offensive line is able to make holes and protect Brandon Cox this week, look out for the rest of the year. I'm not saying K-state's DL is that great, but they're respectable, and Auburn's line will only get better and better as the year progresses, barring injuries.

Tennessee at Cal, 7:00pm ABC

Tennessee will be without their best running back, and will be replacing quite a bit of talent that is moving on to the NFL. Cal, however, is replacing Marshawn Lynch and a lot of its defensive talent. This is the marquee matchup of week 1, but honestly K-State against Auburn is more important to LSU. However, this one should be a lot of fun, and will be fodder for a lot of SEC-Pac 10 bragging rights for a while, much like Tennessee's blowout win over Cal was last year. That was in Knoxville, however, and Cal was overwhelmed by the raucous atmosphere, the likes of which they've never seen in the Pac 10. They settled in after a disastrous first half and played even with Tennessee through the second half, but it was too late. Will the friendlier confines of whatever Cal's home stadium is make this a better game for the Golden Bears? I don't know, but I'm interesting in finding out.

SEC Early Season Preview

To me, there really isn't much point in discussing mid-season or late-season SEC games right now. Too many things will happen between here and there that will render the preview obsolete by the time we get there. Instead, I'm going to run down a list of early season games that I'm really looking forward to seeing, and tell you why. I'll exclude the LSU games, which should be obvious anyway. Here's a ranking of non-LSU games I'm excited to see in the first 3 weeks.

1. Bama at Vandy, September 8, Week 2. This is the first true test of whether or not hiring Nick Saban will give Bama any immediate improvement. Vandy's no pushover, but if Bama has really improved this quickly, they should be able to handle Vandy fairly easily. If Saban has been unable to really improve the team (or if Mike Shula really wasn't that bad), Vandy will be able to stay with Bama, and will have a real shot to beat them. A loss to Vandy would be devastating, as it would mean that there would be a real chance that Bama would start the season 1-4, and possibly collapse from there despite the schedule easing up a bit after that. A loss to Vandy will make it hard for Bama to get the 6 wins necessary to get to a bowl game. This game will go a long way towards telling us if Bama is going to be a real player in the West this year or if they will decline.

2. South Carolina at Georgia, September 8, Week 2. I've been talking up South Carolina at every opportunity. At this point before the season, I see no reason to believe that any team in the East is better than South Carolina. They have an experienced senior QB who was rather effective last year when he played. They have one of the best running backs in the East. They have a solid #1 WR. They have the best linebacking corp in the East and possibly in the conference. Last but not least, they have Steve Spurrier. They return a ton of starters on defense, and they got a terrific 2007 recruiting class. Of course, it could just be some illusion, which the Rivals network believes. I've been burned by South Carolina before, when I thought they were a dark horse to win the East last year. Like with the above game, week 2 will tell me if I've made a decent pick or if I've seen a mirage again.

As for Georgia, there's every reason to believe they'll be a decent team, and some reason to believe they'll be better than decent. If they handle South Carolina here, watch out for them.

3. Arkansas at Bama, September 15, Week 3. People are sleeping on Arkansas this year. They've had an embarrassing offseason, and they lost a lot of good players, particularly on the offensive line. I guess people think that Arkansas just isn't going to be that dangerous this year with all those losses. There are a lot of similarities between the 2006 Arkansas team and the 2005 Bama team. Both teams got a lot of breaks early, peaked in the middle of the season, stayed in the National Championship hunt until a late-season close loss to LSU, then finished weak. If the trend continues, Arkansas really will have a weak season in 2007 to match Bama's weak season in 2006.

However, I say watch out for Arkansas. Bama lost Brodie Croyle, Tyrone Prothro, and several excellent and theretofore underappreciated defensive players (like Mark Anderson), and suffered through the inexplicably production decline of its star running back. Arkansas loses some good players, but nothing quite like that list of talent, and there is little prospect of the McFadden-Jones tandem going all Ken Darby on them. If they can piece together and effective offensive line, they're a very dangerous team, and this game will be the first test for them.

4. Tennessee at Florida, September 15, Week 3. Well this one just goes without saying. This game always goes a long way towards setting up the season in the East. Both teams have holes to fill, and there's no reason to believe either will be in the hunt for a national championship, but it's Tennessee-Florida! While there are other games I have more immediate interest in, you have to include this one on the list.

5. Tennessee at Cal, September 1, Week 1. This list is in order of excitement, not in chronological order. This is the biggest out-of-conference matchup for an SEC team other than LSU vs. Virginia Tech. Cal will be looking for revenge against a team that mauled them last season, setting the tone for people to realize how strong the SEC was. Cal has the Vols at home this time. We'll see if Tennessee can replace the weapons and defensive talent it lost. If so, they should handle Cal, but they won't have Cal in awe this time, like they were when they saw close to 100,000 screaming fans at Neyland Stadium last year, a sight Cal fans do not see in the more subdued Pac-10.

6. Kansas State at Auburn, September 1, Week 1. It's disappointing that Auburn has such a weak early schedule. There wasn't a single game in the first four weeks that I could really point to and say, "This game will tell us something about Auburn." There isn't one. This is easily their best game until they play Florida on September 29, and I'm just not going out that far. I applaud Auburn for scheduling a reasonably tough out-of-conference game. I just wish the scheduling gods hadn't followed it up with South Florida, bye-week, New Mexico State, and Mississippi State. How'd they manage to get their SEC opener to be against Mississippi State in Week 3 and not to have a really good SEC matchup until Week 5? Anyway, if you don't catch this one, you won't know anything about Auburn for a long time.