Saturday, May 19, 2007

How the West Was Fun

Just in case you're curious, the determinations made in my last post were made by analyzing a series of factors about various players. I looked mainly at players' past production, and then asked if there was any reliable reason to believe that production would drop or increase. I basically eliminated inexperienced players from consideration in deciding who the best players are. Sure, it is possible that Matt Stafford or Tim Tebow will be better QB's this year than Blake Mitchell (but not Andre Woodson, most likely), but I'm not going to go out on a limb and predict it.

I basically asked myself the question: if I was putting together a team this year, which Eastern Division QB, RB, and WR would I want. The answers were Woodson, Boyd, and Bennett. Not Tebow, Coker, and Harvin. You're free to disagree if you want.

Also in case you're curious, here's my results when thinking about the SEC West.

Quarterback: Tough call. The Mississippi QBs were terrible last year. Casey Dick really had pretty decent rate statistics if you exclude the abysmal LSU game, but he was only a part-time starter on a running team, and you really shouldn't exclude the abysmal LSU game. Flynn has never been a full-time starter. Wilson was only average last year, but may improve in his second year as a starter. Brandon Cox was also very average, but he had the excuse of playing very hurt most of the year. I'll take Cox in a squeaker over John Parker Wilson.

Running Back: Easy one. Darren McFadden of Arkansas. The second pick would probably be Felix Jones of Arkansas. It really is incredible how much better Arkansas's running game was than ever other team in the conference last year. It remains to be seen if it can be as good this year after losing so many starting offensive linemen. After that, there's a decent group of guys that I think are more or less even at this point, such as Keiland Williams, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Brad Lester.

Wide Receiver: Early Doucet, LSU. Actually, Marcus Monk of Arkansas may be the best receiver in the conference, but he's never had a QB who could consistently get him the ball, so it's really hard to evaluate. Knowing what Doucet can do, I'd take him over Monk. DJ Hall of Alabama would be 3rd.

I think Andre Woodson is the best QB in the conference, and it's not particularly close. I think Darren McFadden is the best RB in the conference, and it's not particularly close. It's a lot closer at Wide Receiver, and I think I'd take Doucet over Earl Bennett in a squeaker.

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