Wow. That was utter domination. Where last week our offense looked very pedestrian in simply taking the easy scores the defense gave us, this time both sides of the ball looked dominant and capable of winning a game for us if the other side of the ball has an off day. Every one of our offensive and defensive units looked better than their Virginia Tech counterparts. Our QBs looked better than their QBs. Our offensive line looked better than their offensive line. Our linebackers looked better than their linebackers, which is the biggest surprise because VT's linebackers are supposed to be the strength of the team and maybe the best in the country.
Early in the game, Jacob Hester showed me why he is the starter. He wasn't just a pretty good, reliable, heady runner (all the white-guy cliches). He was a dynamic runner who got big gains when they were available, and made the most out of runs that didn't have big-play potential. He finished with a 6.8 yard average and a touchdown on 12 runs.
But then Keiland Williams came in and took some of those "runs that didn't have big-play potential" and made them into big plays, making two dazzling runs into the end zone. When I said earlier this week that we don't have a playmaking running back, Keiland Williams had not made runs like that. I think we have one now. He had 126 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 7 carries.
I also complained about a lack of offensive playmakers other than Early Doucet. Brandon Lafell served notice last night that he will be a force in the passing game. Where last week our QBs completed very few passes to receivers other than Doucet, this week Doucet wasn't even our leading receiver. Lafell had one more catch than Doucet and 50 more yards receiving.
If I had to make a complaint, the return game sure didn't look very good. The kickoff returns didn't look impressive at all, and Doucet didn't make a single punt return, fair catching every punt that came his way. I know Early is sure-handed and there are advantages to having that kind of guy back there, but he's also arguably the most important offensive player on the team, and we want to protect him from injury. If he's not going to try to get us some field position, we should probably get someone else back there.
For the second straight week, Ryan Perrilloux looked very good when he got in the game. He was 5 for 5 throwing the ball for 84 yards and 2 touchdowns. We're running a package for him that is similar to the one Florida ran for Tim Tebow last year. Right now, Perrilloux is not nearly as effective of a runner as Tebow was last year, but he's sure throwing the ball very well.
Congratulations to newcomer Demetrius Byrd, who made his first receptions of his LSU career, catching 2 passes late for 22 yards. Congratulations also to true freshman Terrance Toliver, who caught his first touchdown pass of the season, and who looks like he's going to be a great one.
Kudos to Carnell Stewart, who had a very tough week at right tackle last week and took a lot of abuse in the media and on the message boards. He played very well, by which I mean he mostly kept his name from being mentioned. When I watch a replay, I'll keep an eye on him specifically. But regardless of what a close viewing shows, he clearly took great strides from week 1 to week 2.
The last thing that bears mentioning today is the observation that we have not committed a turnover yet this season. No fumbles. No interceptions. We'll win a lot of games if we never turn it over.
Showing posts with label running back. Show all posts
Showing posts with label running back. Show all posts
Sunday, September 9, 2007
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Common Themes of the Week
With gratuitous image of Mr. Peabody and Sherman. What sort of a dog is Mr. Peabody anyway? He looks kind of like a terrier.As I watched football this past week, one thing could not avoid my notice. A lot of teams that struggled did so because they couldn't block. Despite our big win, our offense struggled somewhat because we had a hard time blocking. Auburn couldn't block, and should have lost to an unranked team. Notre Dame couldn't block, and lost by 30 to Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech couldn't block, and beat a n unaccomplished mid-major team by only 10 points, and that only because they got a defensive touchdown, getting only 10 yards rushing along the way. Florida State couldn't block in the first half and went behind by 21.
It was the one thing common to almost every game I watched. Tennessee-Cal was the only exception, as both teams had successful offenses and good blocking.One team or the other had trouble on the offensive line. We were the only team to struggle on the offensive line and not either lose or survive a scare, and our game was in doubt until the last play of the first half.
I don't think I'm presenting anything novel here, and I don't think we need Mr. Peabody to explain it to us (ha! I did manage to make the Mr. Peabody picture non-gratuitous). It's simple, really. If you can't block, you can't run or pass. If you can't run or pass, you can't succeed on offense. If you can't succeed on offense....
The other thing I noticed, and this became glaringly obvious when watching Clemson play Florida State (I only saw the first half, then went to bed), was that right now we don't have a playmaking running back. Or if we do, that playmaking running back hasn't emerged yet. I watched CJ Spiller and James Davis run over and around Seminole after Seminole and I realized we don't have anyone who can do that. It's a weakness of the team that certainly makes us less explosive.
Honestly, so far this team lacks any apparent offensive playmakers other than Early Doucet, and he's not really a score-from-anywhere sort of guy. Early is a great possession receiver and is great in the red zone, but he's not really a threat to take it to the house from midfield. Another playmaker on offense will have to emerge quickly, or it will seriously hurt the team. Whether it's a receiver or running back, we need a big threat.
Labels:
offensive lines,
running back,
wide receiver
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Wait or Go
A few more words about running backs. A lot of people think that playing running back in college is just about getting the ball and running around a lot. They think a guy can come in out of high school and simply pick up where he left off.In truth, few players are able to do this because there is a lot to learn about playing running back that few people learn in high school, and most of them (even the good ones) aren't nearly talented enough to simply play the high school tactic of "give me the ball and no one can tackle me." Even Darren McFadden wasn't good enough to do it. He didn't get a 100 yard rushing game until his 5th college game.
What does a running back have to learn. I can think of a few things, and there are probably even more than this:
- How to run without fumbling or being stripped of the ball.
- How to pass block.
- How to read blockers and defense.
In a college passing game, everyone has to be pushing in the same direction. If your assignment is to read a blitz and pick it up before going out into a pass pattern, you will get your QB hurt and your offense off the field if you fail to do it. If you can't pass block, you can't play on passing downs. If you can't play on passing downs, you can't play, because your presence on the field will tip the defense that the next play is a run.
The third thing is particularly difficult to pick up, and difficult to explain. Young running backs often do one of two things. They either fail to wait for their blockers and run headlong into the defense only to get tackled unnecessarily, or they wait for the gaping holes they got in high school to open up, and they never do, leading to a tackle for loss when the running back fails to get moving forward. Call it "impatient" and "too patient". A running back who gets a feel for when to wait and when to go makes himself a lot more productive. That is what Charles Scott was talking about when he said, "A lot of the game is slowing down for me. My reads are a whole lot better." He's saying he now knows when to wait and when to go, when he didn't know that before.
Fans who don't understand these concepts are the ones who always say, "We should have been playing Keiland Williams earlier in 2006." Nevermind that by Keiland's own admission he wasn't ready and was slow learning the things he needed to know. They scoff when you suggest that lack of competence in pass blocking can keep a running back off the field. They are absolutely wrong.
LSU does not have a great running back right now. We don't have a Reggie Bush or a Darren McFadden. But we do have several very good running backs. And they're learning. I can't wait to see them go next Thursday.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
The Running Backs
Last year, Charles Scott started out the year very strong. He was ahead of Keiland Williams on the depth chart, and played quite a lot in the early season. He didn't manage to get on the field for the ill-fated Auburn game, which was a decision that baffled a lot of people at the time.Then Charles Scott got hurt, and Keiland passed him on the depth chart. Keiland was a very good running back in the last part of the season, and everyone pretty much forgot about Charles Scott.
In the past few days, however, rumors have started to circulate that Scott had re-emerged as a force at running back, possibly even moving into the #1 position. There is a very interesting article over at Tiger Bait about it (subscription only). I can't publish the whole thing (because I am one of the few people my age who actually respects copyright law), but I will pull out a single quote that I think tells an awful lot.
"I feel a lot better now than I did last year," Scott said. "A lot of the game is slowing down for me. My reads are a whole lot better. I have settled in. I honestly believe off of the scrimmages and camp, I have gained the opportunity for the team to rely on me a lot."A lot of people forget that players have to develop, and that even great players have a learning curve once they to college. Scott did. Keiland Williams did, and may yet still have learning to do. For Scott the game is "slowing down". What does that mean? It means he's better able to anticipate what's going to happen before it does. Whereas before, Scott had to react. Now Scott can anticipate, giving him an extra split-second in which to act on what happens. That extra split-second may mean the difference between a tackle for loss or a cut away from the tackler into the open field.
The ability to anticipate what will happen can take you a long way in athletics if you're really good at it. It has been said of Wayne Gretzky that he was not particularly fast, nor particularly strong. He was not in any way a phenomenal athlete. He just had the seemingly uncanny ability to be in one place and have the puck come to him in such a way that he could make a play. While everyone else was going to where the puck was, he was skating to where the puck was going to be. It made him arguably the best hockey player of all time, despite his lack of physical athleticism.
It's that ability Scott is tapping into now, and he believes it's making him a much better running back.
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Early Practice Observations
If I had made a post about What to Watch For in Fall Practice, I would have undoubtedly said:
Les Miles commented yesterday that newcomers Terrance Toliver and Demetrius Byrd were in the lead for the 3rd wide receiver spot behind Doucet and, presumably, Lafell. If those two have passed Chris Mitchell, Jared Mitchell, and Ricky Dixon already, that spells bad news for those three guys getting real playing time in the foreseeable future.
Will Arnold briefly played at Right Guard, a position he has never played, but moved back to Left Guard after a couple practices. He's also already missed quite a bit of practice time in the training room. Will Arnold at Left Guard troubles me. That's the spot where Herman Johnson really emerged as a player. Herman is a versatile guy, and has played Left Guard, Right Guard, and Right Tackle in his career. He showed out when he was moved to Left Guard following Arnold's injury, and now I guess he's either going to hold Arnold out of the lineup there or he will have to be moved to make room for a guy who probably is only going to play a part-time schedule. I don't like it.
As near as we can tell, Ciron Black and Brett Helms written in ink as starters at Left Tackle and Center respectively, but every other position is open to competition and/or uncertainty. Herman Johnson will certainly be playing somewhere on that line, but it remains to be seen where. Miles has praised the play of true freshmen Jarvis Jones, Josh Dworaczyk, Ernest McCoy, and Joseph Barksdale. Jones, Dworaczyk, and Barksdale are Tackles and McCoy is a Guard. It is also possible that one of those guys or a redshirt freshman like Matt Allen will push Lyle Hitt or Carnell Stewart for the starting jobs.
At running back, Richard Murphy is expected to be a star, but he's been limited by nagging injuries so far. His absence has given Charles Scott an opportunity to get more reps, and it will be interesting to see if Scott, who started 2006 so strongly, can earn playing time in this rotation.
Three true freshmen have dominated the headlines from practice. Stevan Ridley has surprised everyone with his skill and athleticism at practice. He did very well in the first scrimmage, albeit he was playing against the 3rd string defense. It appears that Ridley has earned an extended look at tailback and may not be moved to linebacker or fullback as was expected during his recruitment. I sincerely doubt Ridley moves up the depth charts at tailback this year, but perhaps he will redshirt and become a part of the NEXT generation of tailbacks.
The second true freshman getting headlines is Chad Jones. Either Miles is very impressed or is blowing smoke you-know-where to keep him from signing with the Astros. Jones is reported to be a shoe-in to get a lot of playing time at special teams and may even return kicks, which I find amazing for a guy who weighs 220 pounds. He is a great athlete, and it's just inevitable that he's going to get on the field one way or another.
The third true freshman is Terrance Toliver, who has already been mentioned. It really is impressive that in this talented wide receiver corps, Toliver is getting so much attention. Michael Clayton was the last true freshman wide receiver to earn a lot of playing time, but the talent level at the position was not nearly as good then as it is now. Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis didn't play all that much as true freshmen, and Early Doucet (though he played) was pretty far down the charts. What does this say about Toliver's ability?
Special teams are still something of a mystery. It looks like Patrick Fisher will be the punter, but we don't really know how good he will be. The kickoff kicker has not been decided yet, and the return-men are still up in the air, except that we know Trindon will be one of the kickoff return men. Early Doucet was the other kickoff returner last year, but they may want to take him out to protect him. Plus, he just wasn't all that big of a threat returning the ball. I think we can probably do better there AND protect one of our best players. Our punt returner from last season graduated. Personally, I hope Trindon earns that spot too.
That's all for now. We're only 18 days away from kickoff, and I've been excited about it for a long time already. Anticipation is killing me.
- Watch the wide receivers to see who emerges behind Early Doucet;
- Watch the offensive line to see how Will Arnold is doing and whether anyone is pushing the starters;
- Watch the running back rotation to see who's getting the reps;
- Watch to see how the true freshmen integrate onto the team; and
- Watch the special teams.
Les Miles commented yesterday that newcomers Terrance Toliver and Demetrius Byrd were in the lead for the 3rd wide receiver spot behind Doucet and, presumably, Lafell. If those two have passed Chris Mitchell, Jared Mitchell, and Ricky Dixon already, that spells bad news for those three guys getting real playing time in the foreseeable future.
Will Arnold briefly played at Right Guard, a position he has never played, but moved back to Left Guard after a couple practices. He's also already missed quite a bit of practice time in the training room. Will Arnold at Left Guard troubles me. That's the spot where Herman Johnson really emerged as a player. Herman is a versatile guy, and has played Left Guard, Right Guard, and Right Tackle in his career. He showed out when he was moved to Left Guard following Arnold's injury, and now I guess he's either going to hold Arnold out of the lineup there or he will have to be moved to make room for a guy who probably is only going to play a part-time schedule. I don't like it.
As near as we can tell, Ciron Black and Brett Helms written in ink as starters at Left Tackle and Center respectively, but every other position is open to competition and/or uncertainty. Herman Johnson will certainly be playing somewhere on that line, but it remains to be seen where. Miles has praised the play of true freshmen Jarvis Jones, Josh Dworaczyk, Ernest McCoy, and Joseph Barksdale. Jones, Dworaczyk, and Barksdale are Tackles and McCoy is a Guard. It is also possible that one of those guys or a redshirt freshman like Matt Allen will push Lyle Hitt or Carnell Stewart for the starting jobs.
At running back, Richard Murphy is expected to be a star, but he's been limited by nagging injuries so far. His absence has given Charles Scott an opportunity to get more reps, and it will be interesting to see if Scott, who started 2006 so strongly, can earn playing time in this rotation.
Three true freshmen have dominated the headlines from practice. Stevan Ridley has surprised everyone with his skill and athleticism at practice. He did very well in the first scrimmage, albeit he was playing against the 3rd string defense. It appears that Ridley has earned an extended look at tailback and may not be moved to linebacker or fullback as was expected during his recruitment. I sincerely doubt Ridley moves up the depth charts at tailback this year, but perhaps he will redshirt and become a part of the NEXT generation of tailbacks.
The second true freshman getting headlines is Chad Jones. Either Miles is very impressed or is blowing smoke you-know-where to keep him from signing with the Astros. Jones is reported to be a shoe-in to get a lot of playing time at special teams and may even return kicks, which I find amazing for a guy who weighs 220 pounds. He is a great athlete, and it's just inevitable that he's going to get on the field one way or another.
The third true freshman is Terrance Toliver, who has already been mentioned. It really is impressive that in this talented wide receiver corps, Toliver is getting so much attention. Michael Clayton was the last true freshman wide receiver to earn a lot of playing time, but the talent level at the position was not nearly as good then as it is now. Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis didn't play all that much as true freshmen, and Early Doucet (though he played) was pretty far down the charts. What does this say about Toliver's ability?
Special teams are still something of a mystery. It looks like Patrick Fisher will be the punter, but we don't really know how good he will be. The kickoff kicker has not been decided yet, and the return-men are still up in the air, except that we know Trindon will be one of the kickoff return men. Early Doucet was the other kickoff returner last year, but they may want to take him out to protect him. Plus, he just wasn't all that big of a threat returning the ball. I think we can probably do better there AND protect one of our best players. Our punt returner from last season graduated. Personally, I hope Trindon earns that spot too.
That's all for now. We're only 18 days away from kickoff, and I've been excited about it for a long time already. Anticipation is killing me.
Labels:
offense,
offensive lines,
running back,
wide receiver
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Lots of Action Yesterday
There was lots of news yesterday about current LSU players and future LSU players, and those who aren't future LSU players. As predicted earlier this year, Alley Broussard decided to leave the team. I'm not going to get into conjecture about why he decided to leave the team. The official story is that he wants to focus on his degree, which he should get in December. I'll accept that and wish Alley the best in his life. He was one of the last links to the 2003 National Championship team, along with Kirston Pittman. A few others, Matt Flynn included, were on the roster at the time but did not play that season. Broussard had an excellent season in 2004, and had a very bright future in front of him before a devastating knee injury changed his life. For whatever reason, he was never able to get back to where he was in 2004.
While Broussard's career is ending, another Tiger's bright career is just beginning, but is already getting a big change. Joseph Barksdale, 2007 recruit out of Michigan, has been moved from defensive tackle to offensive tackle. It's no secret that LSU's depth at offensive tackle is a serious issue, and it's unknown if this move is simply to help with depth for this year, presaging a move back to the defensive side of the ball for next year, or if this move is permanent. Rumors of him moving to offensive line have been swirling since long before Barksdale ever signed, and most people thought either he or Will Blackwell would eventually be moved.
While Broussard has moved on from football and Barksdale has moved around THE football, another of LSU's signees has moved to a new football team. DeAngelo Benton came up short on his goal of qualifying for the team and will attend Hargrave Military Academy next year trying to get qualified for next year. This is the best thing for him and for LSU short of qualifying. Hargrave is a school in Virginia that takes post-graduates from high school and tries to increase their test scores and core grades to get them qualified for college. They also play football at a rather high level (similar to the junior college level) without losing a year of eligibility in college. Benton will go to Hargrave for a year and hope to return to LSU at that time with 5 years to play 4 seasons of football, the same as any incoming freshman. Hargrave military academy counts Keiland Williams and Larry Fitzgerald among its graduates. This option is better than JUCO if a kid can afford it, because you don't lose him for two years and you don't lose any college eligibility.Tuesday, July 3, 2007
The Great White Hope

I've complained about media and fans routinely comparing white athletes to other white athletes and otherwise racially stereotyping athletes. Enter Jacob Hester, who I really like as a player. He's good. He was our leading rusher last year and averaged well over 4 yards per carry. He made 35 catches, and scored a total of 8 touchdowns, which was third on the team. He also is a good pass blocker and excels on special teams. He will be a senior on this upcoming team.
He's an excellent football player. He's also sometimes a fullback, a position some people want him to play more of.
Personally, I don't like him as a fullback. He's not a great lead blocker, and giving the ball to the fullback just takes the tailback out of the play, meaning the team is playing 10 against 11. I like him as a tailback. He can do it all at that position. He may not be as strong of a pure runner as Keiland Williams, but he can be trusted in all situations. With Hester on the field, the defense can't key on either the run or the pass.
Here's one fan comment on Mr. Hester:
Screw the stopwatch, the recruiting stars, the moves and cuts.. This guy is playing football on another level Gotta be knowledge and heart. But whatever it is, I bet he comes in on 3d and 6 in the 4th quarter of a tight SEC game.While I like the sentiment of not relying exclusively on recruiting service rankings (Hester was a 2-star), I have to ask, "WHAT!?" It's gotta be knowledge and heart? Why don't you just say, "It has to be the whiteness"?
If there is ever an example of internet/newspaper fans not knowing what coaches could see in a "lower-rated" recruit. it's JH!
If you're the kind of guy who likes to compare athletes to one another (and I am), I think there's a very clear recent comparison for Jacob Hester that should be known to all or most LSU fans. He's a solid runner, good receiver, and good blocker. It's Joseph Addai, who did all of those things at LSU as recently as 2005. It's a good comparison, though Hester may not be quite as good as Addai, who was a 1st round draft choice of the Indianapolis Colts, and recently won the Super Bowl.
But to whom have I seen him compared recently? Well, it's hard to come up with a white running back, and for some reason everyone wants to compare white to white and black to black. I've actually seen someone reach all the way back to Hokie Gajan, a running back who played for LSU and for the New Orleans Saints, last playing organized football over 20 years ago. A bit of a tortured comparison, no?Is this ridiculous? Well, I suppose it's a good thing that some people remember Hokie Gajan, but I imagine the comparison between Hester and Hokie is more imagined than real. Heck, there's even a more recent white running back at LSU in Sammy Martin, but I suppose the fact that Hester has hair disqualifies that comparison. Hester is doing OK in the hair department, and poor Sammy Martin entered LSU with a greatly receding hairline. Maybe hair means more than race.
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Evaluating a running back
I wrote about running backs earlier this week in a column in which I argued, through statistics, that LSU's running game as a whole was one of the most effective in the SEC. I got thinking though, how can I statistically evaluate a single running back in a way similar to the way I evaluated quarterbacks, attempting to mesh the entirety of their production into one reasonably meaningful statistic?
I could do it exactly the same way as I did it for quarterbacks, using a formula like this
Runner rating = (yards rushing + 20*touchdowns - 30*fumbles lost)/rushing attempts + (yards receiving + 20*touchdowns -30*fumbles lost)/passes thrown to
I think that result will turn out OK, but I find it unsatisfying for several reasons. First, I'm not sure I can find a statistic on the number of times a ball was thrown to a back. I'd be stuck with pass catches, but that would miss the effect of any dropped passes.
Second, I just don't think it breaks down the information enough. It treats all rushing yards as the same, except for the ones that get you into the end zone. I think a run on 1st and 10 is much different from a run on 3rd and 2. On 3rd and 2, you're just trying to move the chains. On 1st and 10, you're really trying to break a big gain or set up a good down and distance for the rest of the set of downs. It comes down to, on 3rd and 2, a three yard gain is a big success. On 1st and 10, a three yard gain is a let down.
I want to know more than just yards-per-carry. I want to know if the guy broke off a lot of big runs, changing field position. I want to know if he was an effective short-yardage runner too. These statistics just don't do it.
So I think you'd have to break it up by downs, or at least count runs for a 1st down differently, and you'd want to have some way of tracking longer runs. Then again, I wanted to do that for quarterbacks, but again those statistics just aren't kept. I wouldn't want to short-change an excellent short-yardage specialist just because he doesn't have a lot of runs of more than a few yards.
And let's not even begin to discuss how it ignores blocking, which is no small thing. A guy who can't block probably can't be on the field in an obvious passing situation, and his presence on the field may be a tell that it's a running play.
I think the only way to account for the impact of blocking is to drop the yards receiving and use a measurement along the lines of a yards per pass attempt with the player in the game - yards per pass attempt without the player in the game. Good luck compiling that.
Maybe in the end we should not try to develop a single statistic for a running back. Maybe yards per carry, yards per reception, touchdowns, and fumbles should be examined individually. Blocking? Well, just try to forget that there's no good way to statistically measure a blocker.
Looking at our running backs, what stands out? Well, Keiland's 5.7 yard-per carry average is excellent, but Charles Scott's 6.0 yards per carry is eye-popping. I think it's important to realize though that Keiland Williams did it against the core of the SEC schedule, while Scott did it against a weaker early schedule. Hester averaged 4.7 yards per carry, which is very respectable. Justin Vincent and Alley Broussard got plenty of chances, carrying the ball over 130 times between them, but pulled up the rear getting only 3.7 and 3.8 yards per carry respectively. All of our top 4 rushers got between 4 and 6 touchdowns, so they were all basically equally productive on the scoreboard.
Jacob Hester's 35 catches for 7.7 yards per catch and three touchdowns was excellent, and while Justin Vincent didn't catch a lot, he averaged 12.2 yards per catch. Keiland Williams and Charles Scott were basically non-factors in the passing game, catching only 7 balls between them, with no touchdowns.
I think for this coming year, one of the things to watch for is how much Scott gets into the game. It seemed that as the season progressed, the coaches turned to Keiland Williams at the expense of Charles Scott. Early in the season, Scott got the carries, but then as Keiland got in the game, Scott left it. Will he get back in?
Also, look to see if Scott and Williams are used a little more in the passing game. Last year, Hester and Vincent were the passing down backs. Vincent is gone, but Hester remains, and he is very good at that role.
Also, how does Richard Murphy play into this. Will he step into the Justin Vincent role (but hopefully more effective)?
I could do it exactly the same way as I did it for quarterbacks, using a formula like this
Runner rating = (yards rushing + 20*touchdowns - 30*fumbles lost)/rushing attempts + (yards receiving + 20*touchdowns -30*fumbles lost)/passes thrown to
I think that result will turn out OK, but I find it unsatisfying for several reasons. First, I'm not sure I can find a statistic on the number of times a ball was thrown to a back. I'd be stuck with pass catches, but that would miss the effect of any dropped passes.
Second, I just don't think it breaks down the information enough. It treats all rushing yards as the same, except for the ones that get you into the end zone. I think a run on 1st and 10 is much different from a run on 3rd and 2. On 3rd and 2, you're just trying to move the chains. On 1st and 10, you're really trying to break a big gain or set up a good down and distance for the rest of the set of downs. It comes down to, on 3rd and 2, a three yard gain is a big success. On 1st and 10, a three yard gain is a let down.
I want to know more than just yards-per-carry. I want to know if the guy broke off a lot of big runs, changing field position. I want to know if he was an effective short-yardage runner too. These statistics just don't do it.
So I think you'd have to break it up by downs, or at least count runs for a 1st down differently, and you'd want to have some way of tracking longer runs. Then again, I wanted to do that for quarterbacks, but again those statistics just aren't kept. I wouldn't want to short-change an excellent short-yardage specialist just because he doesn't have a lot of runs of more than a few yards.
And let's not even begin to discuss how it ignores blocking, which is no small thing. A guy who can't block probably can't be on the field in an obvious passing situation, and his presence on the field may be a tell that it's a running play.
I think the only way to account for the impact of blocking is to drop the yards receiving and use a measurement along the lines of a yards per pass attempt with the player in the game - yards per pass attempt without the player in the game. Good luck compiling that.
Maybe in the end we should not try to develop a single statistic for a running back. Maybe yards per carry, yards per reception, touchdowns, and fumbles should be examined individually. Blocking? Well, just try to forget that there's no good way to statistically measure a blocker.
Looking at our running backs, what stands out? Well, Keiland's 5.7 yard-per carry average is excellent, but Charles Scott's 6.0 yards per carry is eye-popping. I think it's important to realize though that Keiland Williams did it against the core of the SEC schedule, while Scott did it against a weaker early schedule. Hester averaged 4.7 yards per carry, which is very respectable. Justin Vincent and Alley Broussard got plenty of chances, carrying the ball over 130 times between them, but pulled up the rear getting only 3.7 and 3.8 yards per carry respectively. All of our top 4 rushers got between 4 and 6 touchdowns, so they were all basically equally productive on the scoreboard.
Jacob Hester's 35 catches for 7.7 yards per catch and three touchdowns was excellent, and while Justin Vincent didn't catch a lot, he averaged 12.2 yards per catch. Keiland Williams and Charles Scott were basically non-factors in the passing game, catching only 7 balls between them, with no touchdowns.
I think for this coming year, one of the things to watch for is how much Scott gets into the game. It seemed that as the season progressed, the coaches turned to Keiland Williams at the expense of Charles Scott. Early in the season, Scott got the carries, but then as Keiland got in the game, Scott left it. Will he get back in?
Also, look to see if Scott and Williams are used a little more in the passing game. Last year, Hester and Vincent were the passing down backs. Vincent is gone, but Hester remains, and he is very good at that role.
Also, how does Richard Murphy play into this. Will he step into the Justin Vincent role (but hopefully more effective)?
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Most anticipated redshirt freshman running back... ever?
"Going into the spring I've heard comments that coach Miles has said that I'll be the guy because that's how I ended the season," Williams said. "But we have a redshirt freshman, Richard Murphy. He's just excellent, great athleticism."Keiland Williams
Richard Murphy is a redshirt freshman running back. This means, in case you don't know, that he joined the team last year, eligible to play, and did not play. Not one down. On a team that saw two different true freshman get starts a running back, Richard Murphy sat the bench the entire season. This year, people expect him to compete with Keiland Williams and Jacob Hester to be the #1 guy at the tailback spot.
The words from Keiland Williams raised the volume on a year of whispers. If you paid attention to the message boards and to the "inside information" between August 2006 and now, you'd have occasionally heard someone say, "I hear Richard Murphy tears it up in practice." The secret seems to be out now.
It's kind of like when Cecil Collins was coming off of his Prop 48 year (except, thankfully, there are no indications of any bad behavior on Richard Murphy's part). I remember, in particular, Poseur telling me that Cecil ws the best running back on the team, a team that included Kevin Faulk and Rondell Mealey. He was right, but a fat lot of good it did us.
But back to Richard Murphy and all the talk about him. Keiland's quote above (slightly out of context, but that just makes me like all the other members of the sports media) was actually the second incident to raise the volume on Richard Murphy. The first was when all-world recruit Joe McKnight decided to sign with USC rather than LSU a month ago. People perceive, rightly or wrongly, that Richard Murphy brings the type of game that Joe McKnight was expected to bring: a speed back who can excel on the edge and in the passing game. When McKnight signed with USC at a press conference on National Signing Day televised live on ESPNU (he was considered the#1 prospect in the country according to at least one publication), LSU fans were distraught, but almost to a man each one of us said something like, "I bet Murphy is happy today" or "With Richard Murphy here, we won't miss him."
The whispers grew louder. Then Keiland Williams gave the Tiger faithful some red meat to chew on. Now, despite not having been in a game even once, people are penciling Richard Murphy into the two-deep and are expecting big things from him.
You may be asking, if he's so good, why didn't he play last year when we were hurting for a good running game. We know that he got to Fall Practice really late because the NCAA Clearinghouse didn't certify his ACT score until about a week or two into practice. Without that, the NCAA bars you from practicing with the team. Rumor has it that after he came into practice and saw that he was far behind the other freshmen running backs in learning the college game, he asked to redshirt.
How good is he? Hell, I have no idea, but I think I trust Keiland's opinion. He has no high school video on YouTube, but all college running backs look alike to me on high school highlight videos. They all look like the best athlete on the field, and like no one can tackle them. On his Rivals videos, he is elusive, but not a bruiser. He eludes and breaks tackles with quickness. He looks like the type who isn't going to run over a linebacker, but instead will try to make him miss or try to prevent him from getting a solid hit. Similar in style to Keiland Williams.
What is unusual about this is that it is very rare for really good running backs to redshirt. Running back is one of those positions that a true freshman can generally come in and contribute immediately if he's really good. While every position player has to learn a lot coming into college, running backs have a lot less to learn about technique and basic skills than quarterbacks, offensive linemen, corners, or even wide receivers. Freshmen running backs do well every year, and it even spills over to the NFL, where rookie running backs often produce very well.
I simply do not remember a single running back who sat out his entire true freshman year, despite being academically eligible, and was expected to be as good as Murphy is expected to be in his second year. Backs who are expected to be that good just aren't redshirted. They play.
Of course, I do not think that LSU fans are above over-hyping a player, but I'm also not sure this is an example of overhype. Too many people who are much better at evaluating talent than I am have said to watch out for this kid. So now, I'm adding to the hype. Watch out for this kid, and don't be surprised if he is our best running back in 2007.
Thursday, March 1, 2007
Broussard Struggles
I feel compelled to say something about the basketball team, but what is there to say? Another second half collapse; another disappointing loss. I guess if there was ever a chance that LSU would make the NCAA tourney without winning the SEC tournament, those dreams are over.
I didn't actually watch the game or listen on the radio, but it looks like it was pretty ugly. Instead, I'm going to talk about Spring Practice again.
As Spring Practice begins, troubled LSU running back Alley Broussard appears to be... well... even more troubled. The big, fast, talented tailback who tantalized us in 2004 with an excellent campaign and a record breaking performance against Ole Miss has had another setback in his quest to be a productive running back and to get to the NFL after suffering a devastating knee injury shortly before the 2005 season. This setback appears to be self-inflicted.
Alley Broussard has been suspended from the team for one week for violation of team rules. Miles' comment: "It's our team. If you want to be a big part of our team or your team, it's important to practice and prepare. He's not in a position to do that now." Ouch.
It's no secret that Alley has had a hard time coming back from his injury, not just physically but mentally. He missed the entire 2005 season, supposedly almost quit the team once or twice, was overweight and out of shape for the entire 2006 season, and now appears to "not be in a position to [want to be a big part of the team]." Rumor also has it that he remains out of shape. Top that off with the fact that he is finishing his career with a coach other than the one who recruited him.
I don't know if Broussard's problem is aggravated by a poor relationship with Les Miles, but it is apparent that there is a disconnect between Alley Broussard and the people who run the team. They cannot seem to motivate him to put in the time in the weight room to get in shape and to "want to be a big part of our team". I don't mean this as a knock against Les Miles, nor am I saying that Les Miles is to blame. Frankly, Alley needs to understand that his shot at the NFL rides on his ability to get himself ready to play.
Alley Broussard was part of an excellent class of running backs who joined the team as freshmen for the 2003 National Championship season. All three of them appear to be ending their careers at LSU in disappointing fashion. Justin Vincent never lived up to the promise he showed in his 2003 campaign, which saw him post over 1000 yards and earn MVP honors in both the SEC Championship Game and the Sugar Bowl. In that SEC game, he had one of the most electrifying runs from scrimmage I have ever seen by an LSU running back, when he stiff-armed a Georgia defender who had an angle to tackle him in the backfield, then broke it for 60-some yards. Though he eventually became a team leader, especially in the aftermath of Katrina, he never again brought that level of production to the LSU backfield.
Barrington Edwards transferred to North Carolina after a promising freshman season that saw him fall behind Vincent and Broussard. He'll be going into his senior season at UNC this year. Last year, he was second on the team in carries and yards, with 91 carries for 330 yards, both totals down from the previous year. UNC's leading rusher graduated, so he is the top returning rusher. And oh yeah, UNC was 3-9 last year, and one of the worst teams in the ACC.
Then there's Alley, who, if not for the knee injury, would be long since gone to ply his trade in the NFL. Instead, he's fighting to get mentally back into football. Even though he was the biggest of the three running backs from 2003, he was also the fastest. He could power his way through a tackle, then outrun the rest of the defenders. He was a little behind Justin Vincent in development, because Justin had the benefit of spending a year after high school at a prep school, so Alley didn't see a lot of action in meaningful games in 2003. His breakout year was 2004, when he averaged 6.1 yards per carry (phenomenal for a running back) and scored 10 touchdowns.
He entered Fall Practice in 2005 with a new coach and thoughts of competing for the Heisman Trophy and entering the NFL draft as a junior. Then came the knee injury. Then came the subsequent infection. Then came the difficulties in the mental part of the game. Then came the 2006 season with Alley overweight. Then came Keiland Williams and Charles Scott, both eager to be the #1 running back. Football is a tough, competitive game, and if you don't bring 100% effort, there will be someone behind you ready to pass you up.
Reading between the lines, my guess is that Alley will end up transferring to a Division II school. If so, I wish him well and hope he can get it together. Broussard, despite all his problems, showed flashes of brilliance last year. He was visibly overweight, and not as fast as he had been, but still managed to be our third leading rusher behind Keiland Williams and Jacob Hester, despite not touching the ball in three different games. He still has the talent, and if he can get his mind and his body right, he STILL has a chance to make the NFL.
I didn't actually watch the game or listen on the radio, but it looks like it was pretty ugly. Instead, I'm going to talk about Spring Practice again.
As Spring Practice begins, troubled LSU running back Alley Broussard appears to be... well... even more troubled. The big, fast, talented tailback who tantalized us in 2004 with an excellent campaign and a record breaking performance against Ole Miss has had another setback in his quest to be a productive running back and to get to the NFL after suffering a devastating knee injury shortly before the 2005 season. This setback appears to be self-inflicted.
Alley Broussard has been suspended from the team for one week for violation of team rules. Miles' comment: "It's our team. If you want to be a big part of our team or your team, it's important to practice and prepare. He's not in a position to do that now." Ouch.
It's no secret that Alley has had a hard time coming back from his injury, not just physically but mentally. He missed the entire 2005 season, supposedly almost quit the team once or twice, was overweight and out of shape for the entire 2006 season, and now appears to "not be in a position to [want to be a big part of the team]." Rumor also has it that he remains out of shape. Top that off with the fact that he is finishing his career with a coach other than the one who recruited him.
I don't know if Broussard's problem is aggravated by a poor relationship with Les Miles, but it is apparent that there is a disconnect between Alley Broussard and the people who run the team. They cannot seem to motivate him to put in the time in the weight room to get in shape and to "want to be a big part of our team". I don't mean this as a knock against Les Miles, nor am I saying that Les Miles is to blame. Frankly, Alley needs to understand that his shot at the NFL rides on his ability to get himself ready to play.
Alley Broussard was part of an excellent class of running backs who joined the team as freshmen for the 2003 National Championship season. All three of them appear to be ending their careers at LSU in disappointing fashion. Justin Vincent never lived up to the promise he showed in his 2003 campaign, which saw him post over 1000 yards and earn MVP honors in both the SEC Championship Game and the Sugar Bowl. In that SEC game, he had one of the most electrifying runs from scrimmage I have ever seen by an LSU running back, when he stiff-armed a Georgia defender who had an angle to tackle him in the backfield, then broke it for 60-some yards. Though he eventually became a team leader, especially in the aftermath of Katrina, he never again brought that level of production to the LSU backfield.
Barrington Edwards transferred to North Carolina after a promising freshman season that saw him fall behind Vincent and Broussard. He'll be going into his senior season at UNC this year. Last year, he was second on the team in carries and yards, with 91 carries for 330 yards, both totals down from the previous year. UNC's leading rusher graduated, so he is the top returning rusher. And oh yeah, UNC was 3-9 last year, and one of the worst teams in the ACC.
Then there's Alley, who, if not for the knee injury, would be long since gone to ply his trade in the NFL. Instead, he's fighting to get mentally back into football. Even though he was the biggest of the three running backs from 2003, he was also the fastest. He could power his way through a tackle, then outrun the rest of the defenders. He was a little behind Justin Vincent in development, because Justin had the benefit of spending a year after high school at a prep school, so Alley didn't see a lot of action in meaningful games in 2003. His breakout year was 2004, when he averaged 6.1 yards per carry (phenomenal for a running back) and scored 10 touchdowns.
He entered Fall Practice in 2005 with a new coach and thoughts of competing for the Heisman Trophy and entering the NFL draft as a junior. Then came the knee injury. Then came the subsequent infection. Then came the difficulties in the mental part of the game. Then came the 2006 season with Alley overweight. Then came Keiland Williams and Charles Scott, both eager to be the #1 running back. Football is a tough, competitive game, and if you don't bring 100% effort, there will be someone behind you ready to pass you up.
Reading between the lines, my guess is that Alley will end up transferring to a Division II school. If so, I wish him well and hope he can get it together. Broussard, despite all his problems, showed flashes of brilliance last year. He was visibly overweight, and not as fast as he had been, but still managed to be our third leading rusher behind Keiland Williams and Jacob Hester, despite not touching the ball in three different games. He still has the talent, and if he can get his mind and his body right, he STILL has a chance to make the NFL.
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