What Do You Need To Be Successful

Commenter Jimherehi had a good observation yesterday in the comment to the post on what the NFL Draft means to LSU. He observes:

I find it strange that LSU is the National Champion and had only 1 player drafted in the first two rounds. Not that I think the ones drafted should have been drafted higher, just that it is strange that only one was drafted in the first two rounds. I guess it means that our winning the championship was a total team effort.

I think this deserves some discussion. What does it mean to have 3rd, 4th, and 7th rounders on your team, as opposed to 1st and 2nd rounders? In the 2007 draft, we had four 1st round draft picks selected off of LSU, and one selected in the 7th round. I had acquaintances who criticized LSU for having "so much talent" and not winning the conference or the national championship., suggesting that if we couldn't win it with that load of talent, we wouldn't have another shot at it.

We turned around and had just as good of a season the next year if not better, and got a little bit of luck on our side to give us a chance to win the national championship. Then, when the draft rolled around, only one of our players got anywhere near 1st round treatment.

My explanation for this is that, to my observation, as far as its impact on the college football field goes, there isn't a whole lot of difference between having a future mid-first-round selection on your team and having a future 4th round selection on your team. And further, there isn't a whole lot of difference between having a 5th round selection on your team and having one of the better undrafted free agents.

While I think there is a correlation between "first rounders" and past college success, I would bet that the stronger correlation is between "total draftees" and past college success. Take as an example the last two national champions. In the 2007 draft, after winning the national championship Florida had 9 players selected, and one of the guys passed over was their 4-year-starter at quarterback who could very easily have been drafted. In the 2008 draft, after willing the national championship LSU had 7 players selected, and another who very well could have been.

That's talent and skill spread around the field. Plus, it's senior talent and skill. Those two things are, I think, the keys to having success. Having a veteran team that is also talented at most positions is a very reliable indication of success, much moreso than having a few very good players.

As another example, take a look at that 2006 Arkansas team that almost won the conference. Following that season, they had 4 players drafted, including 3 in the first 2 rounds. Following their next season, they had 6 players drafted, including one of the top 5 and another late 1st rounder. Many people considered that to be a gimmicky team, led by a couple of great players, but the NFL draft shows they had talent all over the field that year, and hence, they had success.

I am sure someone will point out that USC had 10 players drafted, and did not win the national championship. True, but I think some people define success too narrowly. USC has won its conference for something like 5 or 6 consecutive years. That's a string of consistent success that marks a very talented team, and they were surely one play away from going to the national championship game over LSU. One wonders if, having lost that much talent, maybe they finally will start showing a little more vulnerability, but I digress.

My conclusion in looking at it is that having high end talent is great, but having good talent spread around is even better. Of course, having high end talent and good talent spread around is the best of all, but let's not be greedy. The good news is, I think we still have good talent spread around, and we will have it for the foreseeable future.

The Draft: What It Means for LSU

It was a great weekend for LSU, despite some minor disappointments along the way. LSU had one of the headliners of the draft and had a total of 7 players drafted. Yes, Ali Highsmith was passed over, and we are all disappointed about that. Also, Early Doucet was probably a little disappointed in his draft position, but he is in the league and will get a halfway decent contract, though he will have to wait until his second contract to get the big money.

While Highsmith and Doucet may be a little disappointed, Jacob Hester and Keith Zinger must be thrilled. Hester was drafted in the early parts of the 3rd round, about a round or two earlier than he likely expected to be picked. Plus, he went to San Diego, a winning franchise and a good situation for him being behind an All-Pro. He will be asked to be a backup and a situational player, along with a special teamer, a perfect role for him and one where he will likely excel. Keith Zinger was drafted in the 7th round by the Falcons, and while some say that being undrafted may be better than being one of the last picks, he has to feel good that a team really wanted him. He's primarily a blocking tight end, and while those are not sexy picks, there is always room on every NFL team for a tight end who can block well. He can catch a bit too.

As an aside, I watched the draft coverage on NFL Network, and every time a tight end was drafted, Mayock said something to the effect of, "Good receiver but will not block anyone." What is the deal with tight ends who don't block? If you don't block at all, you're not a tight end. You're a really tightly lined-up slot receiver with exceptional size and slowness. The whole purpose of the tight end position is to be both a blocking threat and a catching threat. If you can only catch, you should be a wide receiver. If you can only block, you should be an offensive lineman. I'm not saying all should do both equally, but if you can ONLY do one remotely competently, tight end is not the position for you.

Matt Flynn was drafted by the Green Bay Packers, and I honestly think that he may have been better off not getting drafted. The Packers have an heir apparent starting quarterback in Aaron Rogers, and they drafted Brian Brohm in the second round. You have to believe the Packers are going to carry a quarterback with some experience on the roster in case Rogers struggles. I can't imagine they're going to keep two rookies, so Flynn is probably battling Brohm for the 3rd quarterback spot, and he's doing it from a pretty weak position.

As a simple coincidence, it appears that many former Tigers except for Flynn and Hester are going to teams that had very disappointing seasons. Dorsey is going to KC. Chevis and Zinger are going to the Falcons. They were among the very worst teams in the league. Doucet is going to Arizona, and while they have 2 very good wide receivers, one of them may be heading out, and the team missed the playoffs last year. Steltz is going to the Bears, who also missed the playoffs last year. This suggests there may be some roster issues on those teams that those players can exploit. This could be good for them.

But the primary message for LSU is that this draft shows the Tigers to be a consistent feeder to the NFL. For the recruits, LSU is now one of those schools where if you come in and have success, the NFL will pay very close attention. Last year, we showed that we can put top-flight talent into the top round, but this year we had even more players drafted overall than in 2007 (7 vs. 5), and it was distributed around the draft.

The bad news is, of course, that it means we have a lot of raw talent and skill to replace in the starting lineup. You just don't replace a top 5 pick and hope not to miss a beat. Matt Flynn didn't just step right into Jamarcus Russell's role, and Ricky Jean-Francois probably won't be able to completely compensate for the loss of Glenn Dorsey (though I think he will do very very well). We will need, as always, younger players to step up to fill in gaps in the lineup, and we will need veterans to keep improving their games.

Overall, despite losing a lot of talent to the NFL, I think we are in good position to continue to be strong. Not many teams have the ability to replace a top 5 pick with a guy who may be a top 10 pick the following year. Not many teams have the ability to replace a guy like Doucet with a Terrance Toliver while also having a Demetrius Byrd and a Brandon Lafell continuing to develop. Not many teams can lose a Jacob Hester and still have players like Keiland Williams, Richard Murphy, and Charles Scott to pick up the load. Not many national championship teams return 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen.

I have to stop before I become too much of a homer. It is just way too long from now until football season.

The Draft: Some People Really Should Be Issued Computers Without a Keyboard

It is absolutely mindboggling to read the opinions of the masses when it comes to the NFL Draft. People have such incredibly strong opinions about what is essentially a crap shoot for the people involved.

Let's break down the categories of obnoxious draft watchers:

1. The Homer: He likes his favorite college football team, and all the players on his favorite college football team, all of whom are among the best players available at their positions and are clearly better than other similar players from different schools. Admittedly, I'm the first to say that guys like Early Doucet and Ali Highsmith are gamers who will make whoever drafts them at this point pretty happy, but at least I acknowledge the possibility that this attitude is a result of personal affection for them as a result of their having gone to LSU.

2. The "I've Never Heard of Him and Therefore He Must Be Terrible" Guy: If the player did not play on national television at least 3 times last season and was not incessantly profiled as a "fast riser" in pre-Draft coverage, he is clearly a nobody and deserving of absolutely no attention or goodwill whatsoever. Why pick a player from Indiana when there are all those good Texas players available?

3. The "Blind to All Outside of the SEC" Guy: OK, I acknowledge that I love the SEC, but the idea that USC players are overrated because they play "weak competition" is hogwash. Believe it or not, the bulk of the NFL comes from schools outside of the SEC, including, outrageously, many of the league's best players. Sedrick Ellis is not overrated just because he went to USC. He may end up proving to have been overrated, but you can't say that just because he went to USC.

4. The Groupie. To the groupie, failing to make a splashy pick is like sleeping with the bass player. You do it if it's the only way you get to hang out with the band, but it's a big disappointment, because you really wanted at least the drummer, if not the singer. How many wide receivers does your team have? 7 or 8? It doesn't matter. Get another one. Wide receivers are cool.

One observation is that the cost of moving up in the draft seems to have declined. In years past, it would have taken a 2nd round pick for the Saints to move up 3 spots to take Sedrick Ellis. This year, we only had to move down 2 1/2 rounds from our early 3rd round pick to the back half of the 5th round. It seems that the teams have realized that the draft value chart is hooey.

As for the Saints, I think in order to analyze their first day, you have to assume they were targeting defensive tackle and cornerback with their first two picks. In the first round, if they had not moved up to take Ellis, they would have had their pick of the corners in the draft. Let's assume they would have taken Leodis McKelvin, the guy who was ultimately the first corner picked. As it so happens, McKelvin shares with Tracy Porter the skill set of being fast and being a return-man, so there are parallels there.

In the second round, defensive tackle Trevor Laws was available, though to be fair, the Saints could not have confidently guessed Laws would still be on the board when the #40 pick came up. He could have gone higher. He was ultimately drafted at #47.

My point is, the Saints did well if the combination of Ellis and Tracy Porter is better in a couple of years than the combination of McKelvin and Laws. If McKelvin and Laws is the better combination, we will regret the trade.

Later in the draft, we executed another couple of trades to enable us to pick up the second defensive tackle we wanted, a project of an offensive lineman, a placekicker who specializes in kickoffs, and we traded back into the 7th round to be sure to pick up wide receiver Adrian Arrington.

I liked what Mike Mayock had to say about DeMario Pressley, the defensive tackle the Saints drafted out of NC State. He said Pressley had a questionable motor and took a lot of plays off. However, he said that often with these 300+ pound guys who are asked to play 60-65 plays per game in college and have questionable motors, if you put them in a rotation and ask them to play 25 plays per game, their motor is just fine. In other words, it's a problem of stamina rather than desire. The cure is to limit their playing time.

I have no problem with the Saints picking a kicker in the 6th round. The kid reportedly has a powerful leg. It appears the Saints might be planning to carry two kickers, a field goal guy and a kickoff guy. This would be the kickoff guy. Kickoffs are at least as important as field goals, because most NFL kickers are about equal to each other in field goals, but there is wide variation in kickoff proficiency.

One of the more curious picks, I think, was the Arrington selection in the 7th round. We had traded our 7th rounder to move up two picks to get Pressley. Apparently, we thought the Bengals were going to take him, so they did what they had to do to go get him. I have no problem with that. However, we got a 7th rounder back by trading a 6th rounder next year. Arrington may have ended up being a free agent, and I guess the Saints wanted this kid so badly that they wanted to be sure to get him and not let other teams have a chance to sign him.

Most Underrated Player in the Draft

Whoever drafts Marcus Monk will end up being very happy.

Poseur: I Hate the Draft

I’ve been meaning to post for awhile about the baseball team, and I swear I will get to it. I’ve been busy with the big move to Dallas and I’m swamped at the new job. The long and short of it is this: the offense is still bad but it’s no longer historically awful. The team is inconsistent, as one would expect with a lot of freshmen and sophomores. And, finally, sweeps are killer. LSU has had two series in which they didn’t win a game, and that can’t happen if you want to make the postseason. But more on that later. I want to follow up on Richard’s thoughts on the draft and add my two cents.

I hate the draft. Hate it, hate it, hate it. Actually, I love prospects and I’m a big dork about GM moves. But the cottage industry surrounding the draft has gone from kind of cool to absolutely obnoxious. All of these mock drafts? Worthless. The draft grades on Monday? Even more worthless. Two to three months of hype over 40 times, body types, and “triangle stats”? It’s just creepy.

Everyone is expert. But the draft is like recruiting, it’s all a numbers game. Most first round picks do pan out, though few will become true franchise players. Middle round players will typically be roster filler, but a few guys will be better and a few worse than expected. Know how you can tell? You can’t. Because if you could, I guarantee an NFL front office can.

That said, I do have some general draft guidelines which I think I’ve picked up over the year. It’s more my general guideline, and I freely admit I could be wrong. Here’s my draft rules:

ONE. Draft linemen. I love linemen. Good teams are built from the inside out, and given the state of quarterbacks in the NFL, you’re almost better off letting someone else develop a guy for few years and then poaching him (SEE Favre, Brett; Anderson, Derek; Brees, Drew). Also, linemen have a low bust ratio. Even the “busts” have turned out to be serviceable players.

TWO. Everyone is an injury risk. I’m going to disagree with Richard on Glen Dorsey. Any team that passes on Dorsey because of his injury is stupid. Over fifty percent of NFL players will miss a game due to injury in any given season. Which means every single player is an injury risk.

THREE. Top picks are overrated. I agree with Richard that the draft trading chart should be ignored. And those top five picks can absolutely sink a team. Seriously, check out the top five picks from the last five drafts:

2007: Jamarcus Russell, Calvin Johnson, Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, Levi Brown
2006: Mario Williams, Reggie Bush, Vince Young, D’Brickshaw Ferguson, AJ Hawk
2005: Alex Smith, Ronnie Brown, Braylon Edwards, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams
2004: Eli Manning, Robert Gallery, Larry Fitzgerald, Philip Rivers, Sean Taylor
2003: Carson Palmer, Charles Rogers, Andre Johnson, Dewayne Robertson, Terrence Newman

How many of those guys are absolutely dominant players? Heck, how many are Pro Bowlers? Of those 25 players, they have a grand total of 13 Pro Bowl appearances between them from 9 players, and no one has made more than 2. And remember, these guys get huge salaries.

FOUR. Take the best player available. If you are plugging a hole, grab a free agent. If you’re building a foundation, unless you have a guy who is the top three at his position signed to a good contract for the next few years, you should just take the best player. Because going back to Point Two: everyone is an injury risk. You might need a running back sooner than you think.

FIVE. Always be guided be one simple premise: can this guy play football? Often teams outthink themselves and get caught up in a guy’s “triangle stats” or whatever and forget to just see how the guy plays. While plenty of college stars can’t make the transition to the NFL, GM’s should be advised that if the guy wasn’t good in college, he probably won’t be good in the pros. Guess what? Everyone in the draft is athletic. Anyone who tells you otherwise is either lying or has such a narrow view of athleticism as to render their opinion worthless. Peyton Manning’s “measurable” stink. He’s also a great quarterback. Your goal isn’t to win a relay of 40 yard dashes, it’s to win football games. Get guys who can play.
Finally, don’t watch the draft. Go outside. Just read about it later. Because let’s face it, 24 hours of watching Chris Berman is too much for any rational person to take.

Uncle Rico Has Something To Say

For liveblogging of the NFL Draft, check out Uncle Rico's Time Machine. I did not know that two of my more frequent commenters, Gerry Dorsey and Joshua, ran a joint blog. It's about sports in general, I guess.

Anyway, they contribute a lot to this site, and they're doing NFL draft coverage that I won't be doing. So check them out. They're fans of different teams, which is an interesting move. I'm sure game week is very exciting.

Draft Week - The Saints, Part II

Yesterday, I kind of went through a primer on what I think the Saints are looking for. Now, I don't consider myself an expert on college football as a whole or on evaluating talent for college, and I am even less so an expert on the NFL. That said, I have opinions and a blog, so I'm writing about them.

The Saints hold the #10 overall pick and hold picks in every round except the 4th. The needs here are defensive tackle, linebacker, cornerback, and center (having lost Jeff Faine). There is no center who will be worth the #10 pick, so forget about that. At defensive tackle, Glenn Dorsey will not be available, Sedrick Ellis may be available, but likely won't, and the next defensive tackles are not considered worthy of such high selection. At linebacker, Keith Rivers may be there, and if he isn't there likely aren't any really good selections there.

At cornerback, however, there will likely be a wealth of talent available at #10. Leodis McKelvin, Michael Jenkins, Aqib Talib, and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie all are more likely than not going to be available, and if the Saints want one, they will probably have their pick of the 4.

But that brings up another possibility. If the Saints like all four of those guys about the same, there's no sense in using such a high pick (and the concomitant dollars it requires) on a corner when they can trade down about 10 spots and likely still have 2 of the 4 guys still available. Who knows, they may even end up with the same guy at, say, #19 that they would have taken at #10, while picking up additional draft picks in the process.

Another possibility that has been discussed is to try to move up the draft to take Glenn Dorsey. They'd have to move up to at least #4, and even that might not be good enough.

Let me just say that I hate that idea, for several reasons:

1. Top 5 picks cost a fortune in money and cap space. Having another top 5 pick on the team will tie up gobs of money on just two players: Reggie Bush and Glenn Dorsey.
2. It will cost us at least our 2nd round pick and likely more. The "value chart" for draft picks is a bunch of hooey, and religious adherence to it has caused GMs to do crazy things, and it especially overvalues the first few picks in the draft. The value chart is what caused the Haslett-led Saints to trade two first round draft choices to move up a handful of spots to draft Jonathan Sullivan, who was a total bust (and incidentally is probably the #1 reason we need to draft a defensive tackle now).
   
3. I'm not a big fan of drafting local legends. Sure, there can be a temporary boost in ticket sales and/or merchandising, but what happens if you need to bench, trade, or cut the local legend? Or what if he holds out? Or if he criticizes you in the media? Public. Relations. Nightmare.
4. As much as I love Dorsey, his durability is a legitimate concern. To give up multiple draft picks and a lot of money/cap-space to get a guy with a fairly high likelihood of getting injured is just asking for trouble.

If the local legend is truly the best player on the board when you pick, go for it. If you have to pay a premium to get him, either in a too-high draft pick or in a trade, you're better off going in another direction.

I prefer to wait until the 10th pick, and if Sedrick Ellis is available, I take him. If he is not, I probably look to trade down. There are a few other potentially good defensive tackles who will be available in the late-first or early second, like Patrick Sims from Auburn, Kentwan Balmer from North Carolina, or Trevor Laws from Notre Dame. If the right deal is in place (like Dallas's two picks for our one), we can move down and pick up a corner, a tackle, and a linebacker with early picks and maximize our value. One of Talib, McKelvin, or Rogers-Cromartie is likely to be available at #22, and Balmer or Laws will be available at #28, or perhaps Jarod Mayo will be available. Or Curtis Lofton. There are lots of possibilities, all of them pretty good.

Crazy Idea of the Day: You want a crazy trade idea? One that has no chance in hell of actually happening? Here's what I do. I dangle Reggie Bush as trade bait. I'd offer him straight up to any team who comes on the board with Darren McFadden still available. I think McFadden is that good (and Bush that limited, for that matter). McFadden can do everything Bush can do (catch the ball, run outside the tackles, take it to the house in open space) but is a more complete running back, who could team with Deuce McAllister to extend both of their careers. I think McFadden is going to be the better pro, and (gasp!) would actually cost less money than Bush. What's more, I think there are teams that would go for it. I think the Raiders would go for it. I think the Falcons might go for it. The Raiders are fans of every crazy idea that some jacklegs suggests, and the Falcons can use help pretty everywhere, plus they need a draw. Plus, I really don't like Reggie Bush all that much.

I have no idea how such a cockamamie* plan would impact the salary cap, which has to be considered in any big deal you even think about. That's why I doubt it would ever happen. Plus, you know, it's kind of crazy.

Note: Would you believe me if I told you I managed to type out "cockamamie" on the first try without offending my browser's built-in spell-checker?

Draft Week - The Saints

Yesterday, we talked about how  I follow the NFL draft as a fan of both the Tigers and the Saints. Yesterday, we talked about the Tigers. Today, let's talk about the Saints. Clearly, the Saints had a very disappointing season last year. A lot of prognosticators predicted us to contend for a spot in the Super Bowl. We ended up with a losing season. We have been "rewarded" for that with the #10 overall pick.

To the extent I was able to watch the Saints last year, not being in their regular TV market, it appears that our complete lack of playmakers on defense was exposed once again. I know a lot of people will say that losing Deuce early in the season hurt a lot, but the team did very poorly even with Deuce in the lineup.

Heading into the offseason, a lot of people were thinking we would almost certainly be looking at linebacker or cornerback in the draft. The Saints, however, significantly upgraded those positions during free agency period, by picking up linebackers Jonathan Vilma and Dan Morgan and cornerback Randal Gay (former LSU product, by the way). Vilma and Morgan have been stars in the league, but have suffered season-shortening injuries recently. If even one of those guys returns to prior form (and neither is old really, just unhealthy lately), the linebacker position is substantially shored up. Randal Gay is still a young player and has been a solid zone corner in his career despite not being a regular starter at LSU and not being drafted.

The conventional wisdom is that the Saints needed to address linebacker, corner, and defensive tackle. They have already made some changes at linebacker and corner, but may not be done at either of those places. We still need to address the defensive tackle spot as well.

The problem is that it is difficult to project who among the top prospects at those positions will be available at the #10 spot. Among the top players at linebacker, corner, and defensive tackle, only Glenn Dorsey appears to be certain to be gone by the time the Saints draft. USC products Sedrick Ellis (DT) and Keith Rivers (LB) may be gone, or may not. Mocks have them all over the board. Backup plans Kentwan Balmer (DT, North Carolina) and Jarod Mayo (linebacker, Tennessee) appear to be reaches for #10.

At cornerback, commentators disagree over who the #1 corner on the board is. Is it workout warrior and small-school fast-riser Dominique Rogers-Cromartie? He has freakish measurables and may be the most athletic cornerback not just of this year but of the last several years, but he played at Tennessee State. Not Tennessee. Tennessee State. Can anyone identify their mascot without looking it up?

Is it Aqib Talib, another terrific athlete. He played at Kansas and has certain Deion Sanders-like qualities, in that he gets interceptions and is dangerous with the ball in his hands. He's generally considered a little unpolished and inconsistent and seems to have a fairly high bust-potential. But he could also end up being the best corner out of this draft.

Is it Michael Jenkins from South Florida? Leodis McKelvin from Troy? Both are small-school guys like Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, though they are much more known commodities than is Rogers-Cromartie.

Heck, they could surprise us all and take one of the several good offensive tackles on the board. After all, when most people thought they were going defense last year, they drafted wide receiver Robert Meachem. I was actually in the minority who really liked that pick. I think the idea of using the draft to "accentuate the positive" is often a good idea, as opposed to using it to "eliminate the negative". The idea is that if the strength of your team is moving the ball on offense, use the draft to help you do that even better rather than using it to help you stop other teams a little better.

Of course, it's impossible to characterize Robert Meachem's first year as anything more positive than "extremely disappointing", as he did not actually play at all. Meachem got off to a slow start in his college career as well, and ended his career as one of the most productive receivers in the country. Plus, receivers sometimes develop slowly anyway, and Meachem was trying to break into a really productive, veteran unit.

If Meachem can develop in the pros like he did in college, I still think we will look at the Meachem pick as a positive. He is more than capable of being a #2 receiver in the NFL, complementing Marques Colston.

Tomorrow, I will go over what I would do if I was the Saints and was willing to do bizarre things for the sake of maximizing my haul.

Draft Week - The Tigers

Here at GeauxTuscaloosa, we will do a little NFL Draft coverage, both from my perspective as a fan of LSU Football and as a fan of New Orleans Saints football.

Obviously, for LSU, the headliner is going to be Glenn Dorsey, who appears to be destined to be one of the first four players picked, and may be a target for teams trying to move up in the draft.

This is one of those years (much like last year, I suppose) where the top draft picks will be chosen more on need than on clear distinctions of talent. Last year, Jamarcus Russell was the #1 pick because the team holding the #1 wanted a quarterback and was enamored with him. This year, Dorsey could definitely be the #1 pick except that it looks like the Dolphins are looking at other positions, having flirted with OT Jake Long, QB Matt Ryan, and DE's Chris Long and Vernon Gholston in the media. Dorsey could easily be the #1 pick if the team holding the pick was looking for a DT for the 4-3 system. The Dolphins just appear to be looking elsewhere, but the Raiders and the Falcons at #4 and #3 look to be possibilities for Dorsey, and he almost certainly wouldn't fall below the Raiders at #4.

Of course, LSU will not be done once Dorsey is picked, but it does look like the initial post-season evaluations of other Tigers overestimated the value of players like Early Doucet and Ali Highsmith. January mock drafts had both of these players solidly in the first round, but they did not have great workouts and have slid down the draft board. Doucet is probably a late-second or early-third round pick as a slot receiver, and Highsmith will probably be picked somewhere in the middle rounds. Highsmith and Doucet are both gamers, and both very productive, and I think will play above their draft levels, but their workouts did not help them.

Jacob Hester may be the highest rated "fullback" in the draft, and I think he's the sort of guy who will never get a huge contract but will probably be in the NFL for a decade playing special teams, being a 3rd down back and/or blocking for someone else. I don't know what kind of draft value players like that have, but I expect him to get the call.

Chevis Jackson was a guy who a lot of people thought would be a first day pick, but a disappointing 40 time has put Chevis into the category of "zone corner", and those guys are a commodity in the NFL. Unfortunately being a "commodity" is not a particularly good thing. It means one zone corner is pretty much interchangeable with another, and few of them make a lot of money by NFL standards. He'll be drafted, probably in the middle rounds, but pure zone corners don't get drafted in the first round.

Craig Steltz is another guy who will probably hang around the league a long time, playing special teams and hopefully starting for someone at strong safety. I think he's a really safe pick in the middle rounds because, like Doucet and Hester, he's a gamer who knows how to play and knows how to produce. There's a spot for all of those guys in the NFL for a while.

Matt Flynn hopes to get drafted in the last two rounds. If he does, he will be in the NFL for a year or two while he tries to develop and improve enough to prove he can be a solid backup. I think he has the tools to do it and his workouts helped his cause. A regular feature in ESPN The Magazine follows Flynn, Andre Woodson, and JD Booty and evaluates the change in their respective draft stocks. Flynn has consistently rated as a draft-worthy quarterback, and I hope the NFL agrees. There are no guarantees though.

Other draft-eligible players are probably going to be looking for free agent contracts. Jonathan Zenon is a "speed" corner who just didn't show the speed in workouts. Given his lack of physicality as a corner, his mediocre speed probably puts him out of the draft. He will get a chance to make it as a free agent, but that's a pretty long road. Will Arnold certainly has draft-worthy talent, but his propensity for getting injured means no one will spend a draft pick on him either.

One interesting possibility is that some team will take a chance on former LSU running back Alley Broussard. Alley looked like a total stud and a sure-fire NFL prospect until his knee injury before the 2005 season. After that, he struggled with his conditioning and his confidence en route to also struggling with his production. He eventually transferred out of LSU and to a lower division, but is eligible for the NFL draft and worked out with LSU players for the scouts. He's clearly got the talent if his knee is 100%, but you wonder about his drive and his conditioning. I'm interested to see if he gets a sniff.

A former Tiger I actually really like as an NFL prospect who likely will not get drafted is OT Carnell Stewart. Yes, Stewart committed a lot of dumb penalties, and was sometimes abused in pass protection, but he was very inexperienced at the position. He was also a monster in run-blocking and very athletic for an offensive lineman. He's a guy who, I think, if he could get on a practice squad and develop for a year getting more coaching, he could turn into a real player.

Note: Several articles can be written about how LSU players have not tested as fast as expected. It appears that LSU just was not as fast of a team as a lot of people thought it was entering and playing last season. Our cornerbacks ran 4.6 40-times, and our best linebacker ran 4.8 and slower. Steltz ran solidly, but hardly spectacularly, and Doucet timed out pretty slow for a wide receiver. Though all of these guys were very good college football players, it is clear that the LSU football team just did not have the wealth of talent that people thought. We had a lot of very good, solid players, but we were not a team full of NFL first rounders like a lot of people thought. This helps explain the fact that we played a lot of zone coverage and did not blitz as much as people wanted. The coaches, shockingly, understood that we just weren't all that fast of a team, particularly on defense, and adjusted accordingly. Amazing how that happens.

Lots of Interesting Stuff Happened on a Saturday

Senior Bowl

Yesterday's post was about my indecision about watching the Senior Bowl. I'm glad I watched it, because it was a whale of a game. Erik Ainge led the South squad to a last minute game-winning touchdown drive. LSU and the SEC showed well for the most part, especially Ainge at quarterback and Ali Highsmith and Wesley Woodyard at linebacker. Hester acquitted himself nicely as well. Chevis got burned for a sick touchdown pass from Chad Henne to former Tiger Lavell Hawkins, but otherwise played quite well. Doucet apparently left camp with an injury earlier in the week.

In addition to being an obsessive LSU football fan, I am also a casual New Orleans Saints fan, and I was watching this game not only out of LSU- and SEC-pride, but also to look at potential future Saints. It's no secret that the Saints have an explosive offense but a weak defense that lacks playmakers. If I was King of the Saints, I would be looking for the best defensive players available at either defensive tackle, linebacker, or corner. I'm reasonably satisfied with the defensive ends and safeties on the roster, but that's about it.

So, I was looking for defensive playmakers. The one I saw that I liked the most wasUSC defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis, who may or may not be available when the Saints make their first selection at #10. This guy looked like the real deal to me, a rare playmaker at defensive tackle. The only concern I have about him is that the announcers, who know a lot more than me about these things, said he was a "zero-technique" tackle, meaning he is at his best playing directly opposite the center, which may not be exactly what the Saints need.

Other than Ellis, I really liked Trevor Laws, the defensive tackle from Notre Dame, but I think he is more of a mid-round pick. He looked like he could be a quality mid-round pick though if we haven't picked up a DT before then.

I loved Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, the cornerback from Tennessee State University. He made play after play not only in the passing game, but also in the running game. He's a tall corner, which is always a good thing as well. This is a guy who could be the sort of workout warrior who moves himself into the first round, which would probably put him out of reach of the Saints who would have better corners available at pick #10, but they Saints could seriously use a playmaking corner. If they take a corner in the first round, it would probably be Michael Jenkins from South Florida, or possibly Aqib Talib from Kansas. Either would be good picks, as both are ball hawks and playmakers.

I didn't see a linebacker who I thought would be a worthwhile pick at #10, and the best linebackers will be long gone by the time we pick in the second round, but Wesley Woodyard of Kentucky looks like he can play and could be available in the middle rounds.

LSU Basketball

That was pretty awful last night. I haven't had a lot of opportunities to see this team play, especially since the injury to Chris Johnson, which apparently has made this team completely unviable against SEC competition. The problems I see with this team mainly center around a complete inability to get the ball into a good scoring position. Sometimes, they throw up a bad shot by choice, such as taking a quick 3-pointer with a hand in their faces. Sometimes, they spend 15 seconds passing the ball around 25 feet from the basket and realize the shot clock is down to 10 so they're forced to try to work too quickly from that point and end up taking a wild shot to beat the buzzer.

The result? Really poor field goal shooting. The cause(s)?

Well, earlier in the day, I watched Kentucky beat South Carolina. Despite the loss, the thing that struck me the most about South Carolina is that they have the kind of offensive playmakers that we desperately lack. We don't have a player like Devan Downey, who can can slash to the basket or pull up and hit a 3-pointer and can create turnovers leading to transition points. Heck, right now we don't even have a player like Zam Fredrick, who is a pure shooter. Chris Johnson was a similar sort of player, but now he's hurt and we haven't figured out how to play offense without him.

I see no end to this skid until Johnson comes back from injury, and even then we are an average team at best.

Big Media on the Draft

I was sitting here puttering around on the internet thinking, "I don't have anything I particularly want to write about today." News is slow as far as LSU football goes, and I don't want to write about the Troy Giddens/Joseph Barksdale incident. Enough has been said about that already, and frankly I see nothing really to analyze or discuss about it. While I have some ideas kicking around for a few columns that don't have any immediate import, nothing really jumped out at me today.

Then I ran into this. It's CNNSI's "Photo Gallery" wherein they take a topic, give it very little substance, but beef it up by posting it accompanied by very large pictures. It's like the print version of a musical montage. Very little substance, but it has a nice beat and you can dance to it.

Anyway, this "Photo Gallery" lists the Top 10 NFL Draft Steals for 2007. It helps me crystallize something I've been trying to articulate about "Draft Grades" and "Draft Analysis" in the media for a while. That thing I've been trying to say is that they do not mean much because they are heavily weighted towards rewarding teams that draft players from big schools that the reporters have seen on television. Here are the top 10 draft steals, in order:

1. Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame (late first round)
2. Ryan Kalil, C, USC (late second round)
3. Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio St. (4th round)
4. Steve Breaston, WR, Michigan (5th round)
5. Dallas Sartz, LB, USC (5th round)
6. Tarrell Brown, CB, Texas (5th round)
7. Derek Landri, DT, Notre Dame (5th round)
8. Adam Koets, OT, Oregon State (6th round)
9. Mason Crosby, K, Colorado (6th round)
10. David Irons, CB, Auburn (6th round)

Notice anything? Each of these players is from a big school. All but two are from schools that get on television A LOT, and one of those got hyped as the best kicker in college for most of his career. Only Adam Koets would qualify as even a little bit of a dark horse, and he played in the Pac-10.

CNNSI thinks, then, that the big "steals" of the draft almost uniformly came from schools that just so happen to get on television frequently. I wonder if the Top 10 Draft Steals of 2006 published in May of last year included Marques Colston from Hofstra?

I have nothing against any of these players personally, and there is certainly a chance that any of these guys will emerge as a major player in the NFL. And really, when you think about it, if you're a typical football fan not privy to scouting reports, combine reports, etc., there's a certain amount of decent logic in using as your measuring stick in evaluating talent, "Was he productive against top level competition?"

However, in an NFL where players routinely excel from unheralded programs and players from big schools often flop, don't even pretend an analysis that is heavily biased in favor of players from big programs is even remotely definitive.

To show you how far this goes, consider the case of Tarrell Brown, the 5th biggest steal of the draft. He was a cornerback at Texas, a school which had seven players drafted. In particular, two cornerbacks, one safety, and two defensive ends were drafted. That's 5 of the 6 most important positions on the field for defending against the pass. You have your two corners, one of your safeties, and both of your primary outside pass rushers going to the NFL. Three of them were first-day picks including two in the first round.

Wow, Texas's pass defense must have been excellent in 2006 to have had that much talent on the field. Think again. Texas's vaunted pass defense, which put so many players into the NFL, was tenth in the Big 12 in yards per game.

"OK", you say, "but Texas won a lot of games, and were undoubtedly ahead by large margins, forcing opponents to pass more, thereby giving up more yards."

Good try. They were also tenth in yards per attempt. Out of 12. Texas's pass defense compared to the rest of the Big 12 was poor. Despite this, the third member of the Texas secondary to be drafted gets labeled one of the Top Ten Biggest Draft Steals of 2007? How can this be explained other than by basic big-school bias?

Kreskin, I am not

I'm just going to stop trying to predict what professional football teams will do past the first 40 picks or so. It is clear that I am no good at predicting how college talent will translate to NFL talent. Or rather, I am not good at predicting how NFL teams will predict how college talent will translate to NFL talent.

I'm thinking of several players here:

Jessie Daniels, SS, LSU
Rory Johnson, LB, Ole Miss
Earl Everette, LB, Florida
Brandon Siler, LB, Florida

At LSU, Laron Landry and Jessie Daniels made up arguably the best safety duo in the country. Landry was a 4 year starter; Daniels was a 3 year starter. One publication said of them at the start of the season, "They're NFL safeties spending time in college." Landry was drafted #6 overall. Daniels wasn't drafted. Most expected he'd be a late round pick.

There was a similar story at Ole Miss. Patrick Willis and Rory Johnson made up arguably the best linebacker duo in the SEC. Together they made just about every tackle. Willis was drafted #11 overall. Rory Johnson was not drafted at all, despite the fact that I have seen mock drafts that had him going in the second round.

Earl Everett and Brandon Siler made up arguably the second best linebacker duo in the SEC last year, and together they led Florida's defensive front seven to the national title. Siler was one of the last picks of the draft, and Everett remained undrafted. I had seen mock drafts with both players going in the first day.

In the SEC, Florida led the way with nine players drafted, but three were picked in the final round, including Deshawn Wynn, who many predicted would be drafted around the 4th round. Dallas Baker was also a last-round pick, and I always thought he was just about as good of a wide receiver as Bowe, Meachem, and Sidney Rice, who went in the first and second rounds.

As for the Saints, most of the people they drafted after Meachem were guys I'd never heard of, with the exception of cousin Antonio from Ohio State in the 4th round. This was also the Saints most notable pick outside of the first round. I would never have predicted the Saints would draft a running back, let alone trade up to draft a running back.

I have to wonder what this signals about Deuce McAllister. Does this mean they've decided they have too much money tied up in running backs and will let McAllister walk after this year, and are preparing for it by grooming Antonio? If so, that runs the risk of angering McAllister, and we'd have a star player sulking for a season.

The Saints drafted a lot of small school type players. We got two MAC players on the first day and two Division II players on the second day. I have no problem with this strategy at all, though a lot of others do not like it. Yes, there are questions about the level of competition these guys have faced, but frankly everyone has to step up several levels from college to pro, and there are lots of guys in the NFL from smaller schools.

It comes down to one simple question, and that question cannot be answered not. Are these guys good NFL players? If so, it does not matter where they went to college, and it matters little who you passed up to get them.

The Saints probably want to pick up another linebacker, a defensive tackle, a tight end, and a quarterback on the free agent market. May I suggest Earl Everett or Rory Johnson as linebackers? Tyler Palko, Jared Zabranski, or Chris Leak as quarterbacks? I have no suggestions for DTs or TEs.

Oh, and finally, congratulations to cousin Chase for getting drafted by the Cleveland Browns. He can relive the old times by chasing Brady Quinn around at practice.

Update: we did indeed sign Palko.

Stats and Tools and JaMarcus Russell

With Pittman getting ready to take a rest, I think I should get more involved with this blog again. I just got out of law school finals, so I’ve got some free time again. And I’m no longer bitter about perhaps the worst NCAA basketball tourney ever played. They can’t all be winners, I guess. I also like to talk baseball, and things are getting intersting for the Tigers squad. But that's for another day.

I don’t really watch the Draft. I like player personnel decision and am actually quite interested in the actions of front offices, but actually sitting down and watching the Draft? That’s just excrutiating. Aside from a morbid fascination with Mel Kiper’s hair, I just can’t bring myself to watch it. Except for the first 15 minutes this year, because I wanted to see JaMarcus Russell go #1.

Most of the commentary made me happy. They talked about how great he was, his record as a starter (25-4), and his extraordinary physical tools (as if he’s ever going to be asked to throw a 60 yard pass from his knees). Ron Jaworksi, who I believe is the best NFL analyst on TV, called Russell the only franchise QB in this draft. High praise indeed. So I want to be clear, I’m not talking about some sort of ESPN conspiracy to badmouth LSU. That doesn’t exist except in the heads of some fans who equate any criticism with “bashing”. With that caveat in mind, I hate how there is this false debate between Quinn and Russell as a continuation of the stats vs. scouts argument.

I’m a stats guy. I think a player’s 40-time and his bench press are certainly relevant pieces of information, but take a backseat to the basic question: can he play football? Which means I like guys who have a record of performance. While it is possible for a successful college player to bomb in the pros, it is extremely unlikely for a player to fail in college and then succeed in the pros. The first thing I look at when evaluating a player in the Draft is simple: what has this guy done?

And the general storyline is that Quinn put up the big numbers in college, and Russell has the “tools” with mediocre numbers. Quinn is the, for lack of a better term, the “Moneybal” player and Russell is the tools goof. That general storyline is flat-out wrong. Russell’s numbers are unbelievably good.

232-342, 67.8%, 3129 yds, 28 TD/8 INT, 167.0 Rating, 9.15 yds/att
289-467, 61.9%, 3426 yds, 37 TD/7 INT, 146.7 Rating, 7.34 yds/att

That’s Russell vs. Quinn. Both players put up huge numbers, and I won’t even getting into an adjustment for playing in the SEC versus Notre Dame’s schedule. It took Quinn 125 more passes to throw for just 297 more yards. Russell completed a staggering 67.8% of his passes, which is so ridiculously high I can’t understand why people aren’t more impressed by it. And its not like he’s a dink and dunk passer. Every time Russell drops back to throw, he’s worth 9.15 yards to Quinn’s 7.34. Russell is worth almost two more yards a play. That’s a chasm.

Columnist love to point to the TD/INT ratio, but the key number is not the TD’s but the INT’s. Are we really supposed to reward Quinn because the Irish had an absolutely anemic running game and had to pass if there were ever going to score? TD’s are a usage stat, like saves or RBIs. It’s the INT’s we should focus on, and it’s a dead heat between the two. Russell doesn’t just have the tools, he has better numbers than Quinn as well.

Which leads to the next layer of the argument against Russell, that he is a one-year wonder. Like his previous season was poor or something. His 2005 numbers?

188-311, 60.5%, 2443 yds, 15 TD/9 INT, 136.6 Rating, 7.86 yds/att

Same completion percentage as Quinn, and a similar QB Rating and yards attempt. OK, Quinn has the TD advantage and the INT advantage, but it’s not like Rusell’s numbers were terrible. They compare quite favorable to Quinn’s 2006 numbers. And the way people are trying to spin 9 interceptions in 13 games as a really bad thing is just silly. Russell has never thrown a lot of interceptions. He has always put up lots of yards coupled with great rate stats. On top of that, he has a gaudy winning percentage and an almost unbelievable record of coming through in the clutch. He had eight fourth quarter comebacks in his career, and would have had nine had Iowa not scored on a hail mary.

There is no performance vs. measurables debate with Russell and Quinn. Russell has better numbers and he has better tools. He even has better intangibles and soft leadership skills. The debate between Russell and Quinn has always been completely phony.

Now, Russell and Calvin Johnson…

Light bloggin - quick hits

Some quick hits on the draft:

• Congratulations to Craig Davis, who I think will be a very solid player, and who I think fits perfectly into the situation in San Diego.
• I'm not at all surprised or disappointed that the Saints went with a receiver. For all the talk of needing defense, I don't think people realize that Devery Henderson is entering the season as the Saints' #2 wide receiver. Ouch. Finding a productive wide receiver was probably the single biggest immediate need the Saints had remaining after signing a solid CB and a solid LB during free agency. Robert Meachem underachieved for much of his career at Tennessee, but broke out in a big way in 2006 with 71 catches for over 1,200 yards. I like the pick.
• If you want a receiver who probably was picked too late, how about Steve Smith from USC? He was a 3-year starter who caught 20 touchdown passes and had almost 3000 yards receiving in his career, despite being 2nd banana to Mike Williams and Dwayne Jarrett his entire career. He went in the middle of the second round.
• How did Georgia's Charles Johnson slip so far? Every time I saw Georgia play, Johnson was the best player on the field. He was a monster at rushing the passer. I hate to see a Division rival get better, but I have to think that Carolina got a steal by getting him in the middle of the third round.
• The Saints appear to be going heavy on the small schools, drafting a corner out of Kent State and a guard out of Akron. With a receiver in the fold, it was not necessary to get immediate contributors with these picks, so we could afford to take a chance.
• The Saints' biggest needs are now probably depth at defensive tackle and depth at linebacker. We have two picks in the 4th round, and we can get players at both of those positions. With my big-school, SEC bias (born out of ignorance of other systems), I'm hoping Brandon Siler is around when the Saints pick again. I'm very surprised he's still there, as I thought he would be picked in the second. Earl Everette, also of Florida, is still there as well.
• I don't have a problem if the Saints pick Marcus Thomas, the troubled defensive tackle from Florida. Yes, he's a major head case, but he's a first round talent at a position of need who could be available when we pick in the 5th round. We'd have to pick a second DT though, just in case he decides he'd rather go on a crack bender than show up to practice.
  
• Whatever happened to Quentin Culberson from Mississippi State? That dude was good, but he isn't even in nfl.com's list of Mississippi State's prospects. I checked, and he was senior last year. I don't get it.