I'll dispense with the question/answer format of the previous installations. When talking about recruits, especially skill position players, defensive backs, and linebackers, people get enamored with a kid's reported time in the 40 yard dash. People get excited about a wide receiver who can run the 40 in 4.4 seconds or shorter. People go "ho-hum" when a kid runs it in 4.5 seconds or longer.
I can see why this is so. It's an easy way for people who are amateurs at evaluating talent to measure the level of athletic ability of a player. I am certainly one of those amateurs, and I have been guilty of going all googly-eyed over a sub-4.4. Now, however, I think the measurement is utterly meaningless in evaluating a recruit. Let's look at some reasons why:
1. They're self-reported
Who tells Rivals or Scout what a recruit ran in the 40? Usually, either the recruit or his coach. Do these people have any incentive whatsoever to be truthful about a mediocre run? Absolutely not. At best, you can expect that if a recruit runs 10 times and gets 4.6, 4.6, 4.7, 4.6, 4.5, 4.45, 4.6, 4.5, 4.7, and 4. 5, you can expect that the player will report that he ran a 4.4. Message boards across the land will then cheer him.
2. 40-times are dependent upon running conditions
This is something that the NFL has figured out. A player's 40 time is highly dependent on weather and track conditions at the time it is run. A guy on a high-tech polymer track will run much faster than a guy on a dirt track. A guy will run much faster with the wind at his back than with it still or at his front. A guy will run a little faster in warm weather than in cold.
This means that 40 times are not absolute measures of speed, but are only good when compared relative to people who ran under the exact same conditions. So, did that running back in Tennessee run his 40 yard dash under the same conditions as that cornerback in Michigan? Doubt it.
3. They're greatly inflated (deflated) in recent years
Jerry Rice's reported 40 time in his draft year was 4.6 seconds. Jerry Rice is the greatest wide receiver in history. He holds almost every receiving record the NFL records. He was plenty fast. He couldn't be covered. If you believe his 40 time, he was slow.
I think what has happened is that high school coaches and players have started "teaching to the test". They know that people love to see a 4.4 40-time, so they will work to give it to them. You can engineer 40 time by working on technique and the strengths of particular muscles. Does changing your track technique help make you a better football player? I sincerely doubt it. Does working on particular muscles help make you a better football player? Maybe, but they aren't working on those muscles to help with football. They're working on those muscles to help with track. Any benefit to football is incidental.
4. They're measured without pads
This is a common complaint about it, often made by knuckleheads who just want to defend a particular recruit who reported a poor 40 time. Unfortunately, it's also a correct criticism. All 40 times are measured without football pads. Some people, for reasons I do not understand, lose more speed with pads on than others will lose.
5. Straight-line speed over 40 yards is not particularly important in football
Don't get me wrongly here. I'm not saying slow people are just as good as fast people in football. Clearly not. However, rarely will a guy be called upon to run 40 yards in a straight line in football. It'll happen occasionally, but not that often. Much more often, a player will be required to make quick cuts, power through a block/tackle, run in a straight line for a shorter distance, etc. Straight line speed over half the football just isn't all that important. Maybe we should be measuring times in the 10 yard dash instead. That will be important for a running back trying to outrun linebackers, a cornerback closing on a receiver, a quarterback escaping a rush, a defensive lineman trying to run down a scrambling QB, and many other things. 40 yards? Eh, not so much.
We're talking about explosion. The ability to go from 0-to-100 in an instant. Fortunately, there is another measurement of explosionthat is frequently reported, and we'll get into that in a bit.
6. Players bodies change a lot once they get to college.
Almost every recruit has to make significant changes to his body upon getting to college. Some have to lose a little fat. Almost all have to add strength. This means adding muscle. This means adding weight. This means changing the way you run. Think about it like this. Let's say you take a car that runs really fast. Then you put a more powerful engine in it, but also add weight. Will it be faster or slower? I don't know, and neither will you until you make the change and test it.
So, in short, the problems with the 40 times are thus. People lie about them. Even if people didn't lie about them, they would only be accurate measures if measured under identical conditions. They're engineered by coaches and players who are more interested in improving the score rather than improving in football. They measure straight-line speed under non-game conditions. Straight line speed over that distance is not especially important. And last but not least, every recruit's 40 time will change in unpredictable ways before they actually set foot on the field in a game.
What's the solution?
My favorite measurable is actually the vertical jump rather than the 40 time. Again, rarely will a player actually be required to jump very high from a standing position in a football game, but I think it measures explosive leg strength which is a much more valuable quality than straight-line speed. Every player on the field needs explosive strength. Every one of them. The running back needs to power through a hole. Every defensive player needs to explode on a ball carrier to make a tackle. Offensive linemen need to explode off a snap and push defensive linemen around. Defensive linemen need to stop the offensive linemen from doing that. Wide receivers need to explode past defensive backs.
Also, because the vertical jump is not as sexy of a statistic as the 40 time, players and coaches are less likely to falsely report measurements or engineer better results.
So, take that for what it's worth. Don't get excited over a sub-4.4 because it's probably not totally honest and may not actually measure anything worthwhile anyway. By the same token, don't worry about it when a receiver or a running back has a 4.6 40-time. No biggee. Give me a 36 inch vertical any day.
This is why I like Sam McGuffie and Julio Jones as prospects. Look for McGuffie's highlight films on YouTube. Impressive stuff. Jones just might be the #1 prospect in the country for 2008. We have an uphill battle to get him.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Monday, April 9, 2007
New Commitments
I'm sorry for no updates this weekend. I was gone all weekend and did not have much online access. By now, the news that brothers Brandon and Jhyryn Taylor have committed to join the 2008 recruiting class is old news. Brandon is projected to be a defensive back or a running back, and Jhyryn (I'm taking suggestions on the pronunciation here) is projected to be a wide receiver or defensive back.
The most interesting part of this story is that these two guys have a brother on the team now: projected starting safety Curtis Taylor. If the two younger Taylors both make it to campus, and assuming Curtis blow up and turn pro, we will have three brothers on scholarship at one time for LSU. If this has ever happened before, I don't know about it. This will put the Taylor brothers on the short list of great LSU football families.
Now that I think about it, there aren't a whole lot of really great families of LSU players. There are the Steltzes, the Hilliard cousins, the Davis/Williams cousins (Dominick and John). That's all I can really remember right now. No sets of three.
Even more interestingly, the Taylors have another brother who is a sophomore in high school right now. It remains to be seen if he will be recruited by LSU, but I'm guessing he's a pretty good athlete too.
The most interesting part of this story is that these two guys have a brother on the team now: projected starting safety Curtis Taylor. If the two younger Taylors both make it to campus, and assuming Curtis blow up and turn pro, we will have three brothers on scholarship at one time for LSU. If this has ever happened before, I don't know about it. This will put the Taylor brothers on the short list of great LSU football families.
Now that I think about it, there aren't a whole lot of really great families of LSU players. There are the Steltzes, the Hilliard cousins, the Davis/Williams cousins (Dominick and John). That's all I can really remember right now. No sets of three.
Even more interestingly, the Taylors have another brother who is a sophomore in high school right now. It remains to be seen if he will be recruited by LSU, but I'm guessing he's a pretty good athlete too.
Friday, April 6, 2007
Donovan Stays
It appears that Billy Donovan read my post the other day and decided that getting roads and arenas named for him in Gainesville was better than trying to bring back the past in Lexington. Good for him. Bad for LSU. Having Donovan in Gainesville keeps Florida strong, while having Billy Gillespie in Lexington will undoubtedly lead to at least something of a resurgence in Kentucky. It is still Kentucky, after all.
By the way, let's compare Florida's 2004 basketball recruiting class to Kentucky's 2004 recruiting class. Florida had: Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer, and Taurean Green. Kentucky had Joe Crawford, Ramel Bradley, Randolph Morris, and Rajon Rondo. Kentucky's was, at the time, considered MUCH BETTER than Florida's. Of those four Kentucky signees, 3 of them were five-star. Of the four Florida signees, none of them were five-stars.
The results tell a different story. Florida's four formed the core of two national championship teams before leaving en masse after their junior years. Kentucky's four haven't made it past the Sweet 16. Rondo left after a two-year career that saw him become a chemistry-killing malcontent. Morris tried to leave after a disappointing freshman season, but went undrafted and returned to Lexington with his tail between his legs. He emerged this year as a rather good pivot, and then left again, without really taking Kentucky anywhere. Bradley has developed into a serviceable, but hardly exceptional, turnover-prone point guard without much of a shooting touch. Crawford actually briefly quit the team and then returned and has emerged as a pretty good slashing swingman, but nothing special.
That 2004 class was supposed to be one of the best in the country that year, and was supposed to form the core of the next run of dominant Kentucky teams. It didn't work out that way, and that probably cost Tubby Smith his job.
By the way, let's compare Florida's 2004 basketball recruiting class to Kentucky's 2004 recruiting class. Florida had: Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Corey Brewer, and Taurean Green. Kentucky had Joe Crawford, Ramel Bradley, Randolph Morris, and Rajon Rondo. Kentucky's was, at the time, considered MUCH BETTER than Florida's. Of those four Kentucky signees, 3 of them were five-star. Of the four Florida signees, none of them were five-stars.
The results tell a different story. Florida's four formed the core of two national championship teams before leaving en masse after their junior years. Kentucky's four haven't made it past the Sweet 16. Rondo left after a two-year career that saw him become a chemistry-killing malcontent. Morris tried to leave after a disappointing freshman season, but went undrafted and returned to Lexington with his tail between his legs. He emerged this year as a rather good pivot, and then left again, without really taking Kentucky anywhere. Bradley has developed into a serviceable, but hardly exceptional, turnover-prone point guard without much of a shooting touch. Crawford actually briefly quit the team and then returned and has emerged as a pretty good slashing swingman, but nothing special.
That 2004 class was supposed to be one of the best in the country that year, and was supposed to form the core of the next run of dominant Kentucky teams. It didn't work out that way, and that probably cost Tubby Smith his job.
Thursday, April 5, 2007
Mitch Mustain's mother is a shrieking harpy... right?
One of the first things you learn when you become a lawyer, if you haven't already learned it in law school (or earlier), is that there are always two sides to a story, and often more. Sometimes, when you only hear one side of it, or only know parts of the story, one side appears to be almost monstrous in its wrong-headedness.
Then you hear the rest of the story.
If you haven't heard the story, the basic narrative goes like this. Mitch Mustain was a 5-star quarterback out of Springdale High School in Arkansas. He was one of the very highest rated recruits of the 2006 class. He was also a local boy for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, he wasn't a lock for Arkansas. to make matters even more complicated, he had a couple high school receiver teammates who were also D-1 calibre recruits, all of whom Arkansas wanted to sign. As a gimmick to help get them signed, they hired the kids' high school coach to be offensive coordinator. He was known for his wide open passing style as a high profile high school coach.
Mustain and the rest signed with Arkansas. Their freshman year was last year. Mustain started about half the season, splitting time with Casey Dick. The team had its most successful season in quite some time based on the strength of its awesome rushing attack behind Heisman runner-up Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (possibly the 2nd best running back in the conference behind McFadden). Mustain? Wasn't very effective. But he did win ever game he started (an overrated statistic for a QB, in my opinion).
At the end of the regular season, Mitch Mustain's mother and the other Springdale parents held a meeting with the Arkansas athletic director to complain about the team's style of play, claiming they didn't pass enough. This meeting eventually got out into the public knowledge, drawing intense criticism from all corners. Parents shouldn't be controlling how a D-1, BCS school runs its teams, should it? Mustain and his mother became a laughing stock. He eventually left the team, along with at least one of the other Springdale players. The high school coach, Gus Malzahn, also left after one year to go to Tulsa.
Like I said earlier, that's one side of the story, with incomplete information. Read the link above to the rest of the story. I don't know if his account is true or not, but I know that things are almost never how they initially seem.
You almost can't just quote from the article posted above. You have to read it as a whole. Upon doing so, you get the following story:
Houston Nutt hired Gus Malzahn strictly as a gimmick to sign the Springdale players, lying to them all along about his intentions with respect to the offense. He deliberately set up Malzahn to fail by running his offense against USC, one of the best teams in the country, and declaring it a failure immediately. He then stripped Malzahn of most responsibility for the offense and reconverted the team back to a strict pro-style running team. To make matters worse, he burned Mustain's redshirt in order to stem the tide of criticism against HIMSELF. Mustain wanted to redshirt all along to get five years in the system. Nutt then proceeded to sabotage Mustain's development by refusing to allow Mustain to run passing drills in practice, despite the fact that Mustain was the starting QB. This lack of respect even extended to the equipment manager, who refused to provide Mustain with well-fitting shoes, leading to blisters and back problems. Mustain's relationship with Nutt deteriorated steadily over the course of the season, as did the relationship between Malzahn and the rest of the team.
In the end, Malzahn was coordinator in name only. Mustain was wanted only for his name, while his talent was resented and his skill undeveloped. Then came the meeting with the AD, which was to discuss many topics, including the disrespect shown to the players and the lies told to them. The whole thing was supposed to be confidential, but this confidentiality wasn't kept, and information was released, selectively, to make the Springdale parents look as bad as possible. After all, how can they complain about not passing enough when McFadden and Jones were so good?
Anyway, give it a read. You won't regret it.
Then you hear the rest of the story.
If you haven't heard the story, the basic narrative goes like this. Mitch Mustain was a 5-star quarterback out of Springdale High School in Arkansas. He was one of the very highest rated recruits of the 2006 class. He was also a local boy for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, he wasn't a lock for Arkansas. to make matters even more complicated, he had a couple high school receiver teammates who were also D-1 calibre recruits, all of whom Arkansas wanted to sign. As a gimmick to help get them signed, they hired the kids' high school coach to be offensive coordinator. He was known for his wide open passing style as a high profile high school coach.
Mustain and the rest signed with Arkansas. Their freshman year was last year. Mustain started about half the season, splitting time with Casey Dick. The team had its most successful season in quite some time based on the strength of its awesome rushing attack behind Heisman runner-up Darren McFadden and Felix Jones (possibly the 2nd best running back in the conference behind McFadden). Mustain? Wasn't very effective. But he did win ever game he started (an overrated statistic for a QB, in my opinion).
At the end of the regular season, Mitch Mustain's mother and the other Springdale parents held a meeting with the Arkansas athletic director to complain about the team's style of play, claiming they didn't pass enough. This meeting eventually got out into the public knowledge, drawing intense criticism from all corners. Parents shouldn't be controlling how a D-1, BCS school runs its teams, should it? Mustain and his mother became a laughing stock. He eventually left the team, along with at least one of the other Springdale players. The high school coach, Gus Malzahn, also left after one year to go to Tulsa.
Like I said earlier, that's one side of the story, with incomplete information. Read the link above to the rest of the story. I don't know if his account is true or not, but I know that things are almost never how they initially seem.
You almost can't just quote from the article posted above. You have to read it as a whole. Upon doing so, you get the following story:
Houston Nutt hired Gus Malzahn strictly as a gimmick to sign the Springdale players, lying to them all along about his intentions with respect to the offense. He deliberately set up Malzahn to fail by running his offense against USC, one of the best teams in the country, and declaring it a failure immediately. He then stripped Malzahn of most responsibility for the offense and reconverted the team back to a strict pro-style running team. To make matters worse, he burned Mustain's redshirt in order to stem the tide of criticism against HIMSELF. Mustain wanted to redshirt all along to get five years in the system. Nutt then proceeded to sabotage Mustain's development by refusing to allow Mustain to run passing drills in practice, despite the fact that Mustain was the starting QB. This lack of respect even extended to the equipment manager, who refused to provide Mustain with well-fitting shoes, leading to blisters and back problems. Mustain's relationship with Nutt deteriorated steadily over the course of the season, as did the relationship between Malzahn and the rest of the team.
In the end, Malzahn was coordinator in name only. Mustain was wanted only for his name, while his talent was resented and his skill undeveloped. Then came the meeting with the AD, which was to discuss many topics, including the disrespect shown to the players and the lies told to them. The whole thing was supposed to be confidential, but this confidentiality wasn't kept, and information was released, selectively, to make the Springdale parents look as bad as possible. After all, how can they complain about not passing enough when McFadden and Jones were so good?
Anyway, give it a read. You won't regret it.
Wednesday, April 4, 2007
It's that time of year again
I want to like baseball. I really do. I actually like baseball quite a bit. My only problem is that I don't have a rooting interest. If I had a real rooting interest, I could do things like keep up with the hot stove league, pay attention in June, and even know who's leading divisions at any given time. I've been trying to pick a permanent team for years. Here are my criteria:
I think this year I will root for the Brewers. They're expected to be reasonably competitive, and they have a player on their team that I watched when I used to work in Dixie Youth baseball. Ben Sheets was in that league at that time, and incidentally, he wasn't one of the best players in that league. He was a late bloomer who just got better and better after the other people his age peaked in high school.
Anyway, this being Whimsical Wednesday, here's a YouTube of penguins chasing a butterfly.
- It can't be the Yankees, the Braves, or the Rangers,
- It has to be well-run. It doesn't have to be competitive every year, but there must be some hope of being competitive on a regular basis,
- It must not be a recent expansion team,
- It must not be doomed to constantly lose its best players to free agency,
- It must not constantly buy up the best free agents from poorer teams.
I think this year I will root for the Brewers. They're expected to be reasonably competitive, and they have a player on their team that I watched when I used to work in Dixie Youth baseball. Ben Sheets was in that league at that time, and incidentally, he wasn't one of the best players in that league. He was a late bloomer who just got better and better after the other people his age peaked in high school.
Anyway, this being Whimsical Wednesday, here's a YouTube of penguins chasing a butterfly.
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
No title
Congratulations to Scott, for winning the pool. I didn't keep up with how many points he scored, but I know he won.
I should have picked Roy "The Doctor" Hibbert. It would have at least kept it close. Or maybe Greg "Social Security" Oden.
Congratulations also to Billy Donovan, who is about to be richer than even me.
I should have picked Roy "The Doctor" Hibbert. It would have at least kept it close. Or maybe Greg "Social Security" Oden.
Congratulations also to Billy Donovan, who is about to be richer than even me.
Monday, April 2, 2007
That's What I Get for Making a Prediction
I do not like when an analyst substitutes a prediction for analysis of an upcoming game, or using a prediction as a starting point for analysis. No one knows what will happen, and as a viewer I don't particularly need your pick of who will win the game. I'll know who wins the game soon enough. By watching it.
Then I went and predicted that the Lady Tigers would go and win it all. To punish me for my hubris, the gods not only had the Lady Tigers beaten, but beaten so soundly that they actually would have still lost had Rutgers not scored a single second-half point.
Still, it was a remarkable run for the team, winning a number of games against good teams, all in the face of incredible adversity. Congratulations to the team. Congratulations to Bob Starkey, who if he wishes to remain an assistant somewhere as has been reported, he can write his own ticket.
As for the men's tournament, I honestly no longer care. This has been the least entertaining tournament in my lifetime. Easily the most interesting story of the tournament has been the saga of Billy Donovan (maybe) taking the job at the University of Kentucky after (maybe) winning back to back national championships.
If I may weigh in with my two cents, I don't think Donovan should take the job, for the same reasons I didn't think Saban should leave LSU. He's created a great program from almost nothing in Florida. He has the recruiting train rolling, and that will keep him competitive for the foreseeable future. If he sticks around at Florida, they'll be naming buildings and streets after him ten years from now. Yes, he'll be replacing probably his entire starting five, but the last time he did that he won the national championship (twice?).
If he goes to Kentucky, he will be taking over at team that isn't particularly talented. He'll be inheriting a fan base that will expect to win the conference and the conference tournament every year and will expect to be competitive for the national championship more often than not.
I'd take the roads and buildings.
Of course, Ashley Judd will be there. But I'm sure Gainesville has its share of pretty girls too.
Then I went and predicted that the Lady Tigers would go and win it all. To punish me for my hubris, the gods not only had the Lady Tigers beaten, but beaten so soundly that they actually would have still lost had Rutgers not scored a single second-half point.
Still, it was a remarkable run for the team, winning a number of games against good teams, all in the face of incredible adversity. Congratulations to the team. Congratulations to Bob Starkey, who if he wishes to remain an assistant somewhere as has been reported, he can write his own ticket.
As for the men's tournament, I honestly no longer care. This has been the least entertaining tournament in my lifetime. Easily the most interesting story of the tournament has been the saga of Billy Donovan (maybe) taking the job at the University of Kentucky after (maybe) winning back to back national championships.
If I may weigh in with my two cents, I don't think Donovan should take the job, for the same reasons I didn't think Saban should leave LSU. He's created a great program from almost nothing in Florida. He has the recruiting train rolling, and that will keep him competitive for the foreseeable future. If he sticks around at Florida, they'll be naming buildings and streets after him ten years from now. Yes, he'll be replacing probably his entire starting five, but the last time he did that he won the national championship (twice?).
If he goes to Kentucky, he will be taking over at team that isn't particularly talented. He'll be inheriting a fan base that will expect to win the conference and the conference tournament every year and will expect to be competitive for the national championship more often than not.
I'd take the roads and buildings.
Of course, Ashley Judd will be there. But I'm sure Gainesville has its share of pretty girls too.
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