My question is, how embarrassed was the announcer to have to announce Bonerama performing the national anthem?
OK, it wasn't that great of a day for the SEC. Arkansas thoroughly failed to show up to play against Missouri. Where was that cruddy team when we played them in November?
Even worse, the Fox broadcast team and the Fox picture and sound were not good at all. I hope this isn't a portent of things to come in next week's game. Granted, I think they pulled Pat Summerall out of retirement for this game, but that doesn't explain the poor picture and sound quality. As much as I complain about ESPN, they have a crisp picture and good sound.
Michigan controlled both lines of scrimmage in their win against Florida. It would have been a blowout if not for Michigan's uncharacteristic turnovers. It's not the Curse of the Heisman, because Tebow actually played decently. The Florida defense looked like they were still eating Christmas ham, and the Florida offensive line didn't give Tebow any time to maneuver.
The good news for SEC fans is that Tennessee was impressive against Wisconsin, and Georgia made Hawaii look like it didn't belong in the BCS, which it doesn't. I went to bed at halftime of the Sugar Bowl because I knew there was no chance Hawaii was coming back.
I agree with those who say that Georgia finished the season as one of the best teams in the country. But if you think that means Georgia should have gone to the National Championship Game, I have three words for you: "Win your conference." If you don't win your conference, you have no claim to the national championship. None.
Not that I have anything against Georgia. I don't. Among SEC teams, I actually find them to probably the most enjoyable and the most respectable outside of LSU, and I really don't blame them for trying to state their case. Of course they want to convince people they deserved a shot at the championship. I just find their case wholly unconvincing.
I hope LSU players pay attention to that Cap One Bowl. Florida was supposed to maul Michigan. Heck, even I said it. Nothing in the way this season played out indicated that Michigan was as good of a team as Florida. I think Florida's young players just didn't realize they were going to be in a fight. They thought the Big 10 team would roll over for them like OSU did last year.
Florida may have the speed advantage in the skill positions, but if you get dominated in the trenches, it won't do you any good. And Florida got thoroughly dominated in the trenches. The Michigan front seven looked a LOT more athletic than the Florida line.
Thank you, also, Michigan, for giving everyone the blueprint on how to beat Florida.
Showing posts with label florida. Show all posts
Showing posts with label florida. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Bittersweet Football Tuesday
Today is New Year's, historically the best college football day of the year. It's the day when all the biggest bowls were played.
Can you believe that in 1970, there were 11 bowl games? A few years earlier, there were only 9. No 6-6 teams made it those years. Now, there are 32 post season bowl games.
I'm not complaining about that. While I don't watch all the games, I appreciate that they're there, and I don't mind that mediocre teams get a bowl game.
What I definitely do not like, however, is the devaluation of the "minor" New Year's Day bowl games. There are 6 games today, and 4 of them start at noon or earlier, to make room for the supposedly sexier matchup of USC vs. Illinois at 3:30pm, without competition from other games. Fans of the SEC will have their day start with Tennessee vs. Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl at 10:00am, a start time that is sure to please those who resent Lincoln-Financial.
Worse though, Arkansas vs. Missouri in the Cotton Bowl will start a mere half-hour later at 10:30am. And then, in a final insult, Michigan vs. Florida in the Cap One Bowl will start at noon, while those other two games are near halftime. SEC fans will have to choose between watching the end of the Cotton Bowl, the end of the Outback Bowl, or the first half of the Cap One Bowl.
Let's hope neither the Cotton nor the Outback go to overtime.
The SEC is having a good bowl season, at 4-0. None of the games were blowouts, and none of the games were pretty, but we ended up winning all of them.
Yesterday, Kentucky beat FSU in 35-28 shootout. I have to tip my hat to Florida State. They could have given up on this game when they traveled without 36 of their players due to suspensions and injuries, but they didn't give up. They could have given up when they fell behind by 14 on two different occasions, but they didn't. Ultimately, they didn't have the personnel to win the game, but it may have been one of their best-played games of the season.
In the evening, Auburn took down Clemson in overtime, 23-20, showcasing their new spread offense. This Auburn team, spread or not, looks like they have the personnel to be a good team for the next couple years. They have an heir apparent sophomore quarterback who looks dangerous, 3 good running backs all returning next year, and an offensive line filled with freshmen. This offense will be formidable next year and beyond, especially if they can find a few wide receivers.
It was an ugly game, with neither team playing particularly well early, but it ended up being an exciting game. And yes, I always root for SEC against non-SEC.
As for today's games, I think Florida is significantly better than Michigan, and I would be shocked if Michigan can stay with them. I don't know what to think about Tennessee vs. Wisconsin, because Wisconsin is something of a mystery to me, and Tennessee has a history of underachieving in bowl games. The one I'm looking forward to seeing is Missouri vs. Arkansas in the Cotton. I think that this is a good matchup, and if Arkansas plays up to their ability and beats Missouri, it will be a huge boost to the SEC, because Arkansas is a big underdog to a team that arguably should have made a BCS bowl.
I fully expect Georgia to handle Hawaii tonight, but you never know. I've been surprised before. If the SEC can somehow end the night 8-0, that would be.. wait for it.. legendary!
After today, we really focus on the Ohio State vs. LSU game coming up. No more recruiting stuff unless I change my mind.
Can you believe that in 1970, there were 11 bowl games? A few years earlier, there were only 9. No 6-6 teams made it those years. Now, there are 32 post season bowl games.
I'm not complaining about that. While I don't watch all the games, I appreciate that they're there, and I don't mind that mediocre teams get a bowl game.
What I definitely do not like, however, is the devaluation of the "minor" New Year's Day bowl games. There are 6 games today, and 4 of them start at noon or earlier, to make room for the supposedly sexier matchup of USC vs. Illinois at 3:30pm, without competition from other games. Fans of the SEC will have their day start with Tennessee vs. Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl at 10:00am, a start time that is sure to please those who resent Lincoln-Financial.
Worse though, Arkansas vs. Missouri in the Cotton Bowl will start a mere half-hour later at 10:30am. And then, in a final insult, Michigan vs. Florida in the Cap One Bowl will start at noon, while those other two games are near halftime. SEC fans will have to choose between watching the end of the Cotton Bowl, the end of the Outback Bowl, or the first half of the Cap One Bowl.
Let's hope neither the Cotton nor the Outback go to overtime.
The SEC is having a good bowl season, at 4-0. None of the games were blowouts, and none of the games were pretty, but we ended up winning all of them.
Yesterday, Kentucky beat FSU in 35-28 shootout. I have to tip my hat to Florida State. They could have given up on this game when they traveled without 36 of their players due to suspensions and injuries, but they didn't give up. They could have given up when they fell behind by 14 on two different occasions, but they didn't. Ultimately, they didn't have the personnel to win the game, but it may have been one of their best-played games of the season.
In the evening, Auburn took down Clemson in overtime, 23-20, showcasing their new spread offense. This Auburn team, spread or not, looks like they have the personnel to be a good team for the next couple years. They have an heir apparent sophomore quarterback who looks dangerous, 3 good running backs all returning next year, and an offensive line filled with freshmen. This offense will be formidable next year and beyond, especially if they can find a few wide receivers.
It was an ugly game, with neither team playing particularly well early, but it ended up being an exciting game. And yes, I always root for SEC against non-SEC.
As for today's games, I think Florida is significantly better than Michigan, and I would be shocked if Michigan can stay with them. I don't know what to think about Tennessee vs. Wisconsin, because Wisconsin is something of a mystery to me, and Tennessee has a history of underachieving in bowl games. The one I'm looking forward to seeing is Missouri vs. Arkansas in the Cotton. I think that this is a good matchup, and if Arkansas plays up to their ability and beats Missouri, it will be a huge boost to the SEC, because Arkansas is a big underdog to a team that arguably should have made a BCS bowl.
After today, we really focus on the Ohio State vs. LSU game coming up. No more recruiting stuff unless I change my mind.
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Game Day: Auburn
Yet another fateful day is here, and today marks the 2/3 mark of the season for us. Game 8. It's also, needless to say, Auburn. Everyone with a lick of sense holds a special place in their hearts for hatred of Auburn.
But it's going to be a long day before we get to Auburn. There are only three SEC games on television this week, which is a mild disappointment, especially since USC vs. Vandy is not being televised. Here're my plans for the day:
Now until 11:30am: Various chores and activities, including a trip to the Kentuck Art Festival with my family. There will possibly be a trip to the library as well, and likely a short jaunt to the grocery store to buy milk and other household supplies.
11:30am - 2:30pm: Tennessee at Bama, Lincoln-Financial. If it's not over at 2:30, and if it's still competitive, I'll keep watching. I think Tennessee is the better team, which is strange because I wouldn't have said that two weeks ago at this time. If there is any trend you may notice from my writings, it is that I do not believe the better team necessarily wins every game, and these teams are close enough in talent that you really couldn't make a confident prediction. Plus, Bama's at home, and they hate Tennessee more than the Baptists hate to drink in public. Bama's problem here is that Tennessee's offense is pretty darn explosive. It's also very balanced. They can run with Lamarcus Coker and Arrian Foster, and it can pass with Erik Ainge, who is quietly having the kind of season that might normally make someone a 1st Team All-SEC quarterback. Too bad for him there's a guy named Woodson and a guy like Tebow stealing all the headlines. Bama's defense has been surprisingly good at times, and got something of a preview of this kind of offense when it went against a surprisingly dynamic Ole Miss team. They didn't have much success defensively against Ole Miss though, so they'll have to improve a lot from last week to this week. Bama can win, but it will be tough. They'll need Tennessee to be flat.
An interesting point: If Bama loses to Tennessee, they STILL control their destiny in the West. They will have two SEC losses, but both to Eastern Division opponents. If they win out after that, both Auburn and LSU will have at least two losses, at least one of which will be against a Western Division opponent. Bama would win the West. Further, a win here won't really help Bama in the SEC West, as they'd still have to probably win out in order to win the West.
2:30pm - 6:00 pm: Florida at Kentucky, CBS. I think Kentucky has a real chance here. And yes, I think that in part because of how they played us. They showed real character in beating us. It will be an uphill climb, but I think they got a lot of confidence from that win. Florida's secondary is young, and Kentucky's quarterback is great. That's a recipe for success if you're Kentucky. If Kentucky can bring the physical play the way they did last week on the defensive side of the ball, they're a very good football team.
7:00pm - 8:00pm: Michigan at Illinois, ABC: Go Fightin' Zooks!
8:00pm - midnight: Auburn at LSU, ESPN. Obviously, this is a big game for both teams. I don't think the loser has a prayer in the SEC West, and the winner has a very good chance of holding onto the top spot. Right now, only LSU, Auburn, and Bama control their destinies in the West. Arkansas, Ole Miss, and MSU have no real chance. I think the LSU/Auburn/Bama round-robin that occurs in the next several weeks decides the West, and that LSU and Auburn are both a little better than Bama at this point.
But it's going to be a long day before we get to Auburn. There are only three SEC games on television this week, which is a mild disappointment, especially since USC vs. Vandy is not being televised. Here're my plans for the day:
Now until 11:30am: Various chores and activities, including a trip to the Kentuck Art Festival with my family. There will possibly be a trip to the library as well, and likely a short jaunt to the grocery store to buy milk and other household supplies.
11:30am - 2:30pm: Tennessee at Bama, Lincoln-Financial. If it's not over at 2:30, and if it's still competitive, I'll keep watching. I think Tennessee is the better team, which is strange because I wouldn't have said that two weeks ago at this time. If there is any trend you may notice from my writings, it is that I do not believe the better team necessarily wins every game, and these teams are close enough in talent that you really couldn't make a confident prediction. Plus, Bama's at home, and they hate Tennessee more than the Baptists hate to drink in public. Bama's problem here is that Tennessee's offense is pretty darn explosive. It's also very balanced. They can run with Lamarcus Coker and Arrian Foster, and it can pass with Erik Ainge, who is quietly having the kind of season that might normally make someone a 1st Team All-SEC quarterback. Too bad for him there's a guy named Woodson and a guy like Tebow stealing all the headlines. Bama's defense has been surprisingly good at times, and got something of a preview of this kind of offense when it went against a surprisingly dynamic Ole Miss team. They didn't have much success defensively against Ole Miss though, so they'll have to improve a lot from last week to this week. Bama can win, but it will be tough. They'll need Tennessee to be flat.
An interesting point: If Bama loses to Tennessee, they STILL control their destiny in the West. They will have two SEC losses, but both to Eastern Division opponents. If they win out after that, both Auburn and LSU will have at least two losses, at least one of which will be against a Western Division opponent. Bama would win the West. Further, a win here won't really help Bama in the SEC West, as they'd still have to probably win out in order to win the West.
2:30pm - 6:00 pm: Florida at Kentucky, CBS. I think Kentucky has a real chance here. And yes, I think that in part because of how they played us. They showed real character in beating us. It will be an uphill climb, but I think they got a lot of confidence from that win. Florida's secondary is young, and Kentucky's quarterback is great. That's a recipe for success if you're Kentucky. If Kentucky can bring the physical play the way they did last week on the defensive side of the ball, they're a very good football team.
7:00pm - 8:00pm: Michigan at Illinois, ABC: Go Fightin' Zooks!
8:00pm - midnight: Auburn at LSU, ESPN. Obviously, this is a big game for both teams. I don't think the loser has a prayer in the SEC West, and the winner has a very good chance of holding onto the top spot. Right now, only LSU, Auburn, and Bama control their destinies in the West. Arkansas, Ole Miss, and MSU have no real chance. I think the LSU/Auburn/Bama round-robin that occurs in the next several weeks decides the West, and that LSU and Auburn are both a little better than Bama at this point.
Monday, October 8, 2007
Florida: The First Replay
I watched the game on replay yesterday. All hail Tivo, the greatest invention since the counter-top deep fryer. When watching the game in real time, like everyone else, I watch the ball most of the time. When watching the replay, I watch the lines.
Our offensive line played very well the entire game, except for a few penalties. When it came down to getting a hat on a hat and blocking someone, the offensive line did it successfully almost every time. We gave up no sacks, only two tipped passes, and only one QB hurry (which was also a tipped pass). In the running game, we had very few negative plays caused defenders getting into the backfield. The holes weren't always cavernous, but there was almost always something there for a running back to get into.
The entire line was good, from Ciron Black on the left to Carnell Stewart on the right. You could count on one hand the number of missed blocks, and you'd probably still have some fingers left over.
And of course, in that big 4th quarter and on those fourth downs, the offensive line came up huge. All game, however, there were none of the major breakdowns that made the Tulane and Mississippi State games occasionally "interesting".
What we rarely saw, however, was the offensive linemen getting to the second level. It was all they could do to keep the defensive line blocked. That's why we didn't see a whole lot of really big gains. We just pounded the ball into the line time after time after time, and finally won the game doing it. It was a remarkably physical game; the most physical I'd seen since, oh, maybe the 2001 Mississippi State game that we won in overtime.
We moved the ball very consistently. We got yards all game. We just failed to finish off some drives, and we missed some field goals. If we had not stalled in Florida territory once or twice, this would have been a very different game.
In the passing game, it's amazing how much this team misses Early Doucet, and how much better we'll be when we get him back. Against a good team like Florida, and without Early Doucet, we just aren't that dangerous of a team in the air. Miles said he's close to being back, and almost dressed out for this game. Brandon Lafell is a pretty good receiver, but it sure would help matters a lot if he was our #2 receiver instead of our #1, and if we had a receiver taking double teams away from him, or taking a man out of the box and away from the running game.
Jared Mitchell, I think, is going to be a good receiver, but he's definitely still developing. I don't know if he's really ready to have the role he currently has. When Doucet's back, Mitchell will go back to his previous role.
On the defensive side of the ball, when the LSU defense was struggling, which happened through most of the first three quarters, no one struggled more than the right defensive end combination of Rahim Alem and Kirston Pittman. On that shotgun option that a lot of teams run, where the QB gets the snap in the shotgun and either hands off to a running back up the middle or pulls it back and runs around end, Pittman and Alem were absolutely abused. Tebow holds that fake a lot longer than most other quarterbacks, forcing the defensive end to commit either to collapsing inside to get the running back or staying outside to guard against the QB keeper. When Tebow handed it to Moore, it resulted in big plays. When Tebow kept it, the same thing occurred. This is a very difficult play to defend if the blocking is there, which it usually was.
Pittman and Alem also missed several free shots at the quarterback, also leading to big plays. At least twice on Florida's first touchdown drive, Pittman and Alem came unblocked off the end and simply missed Tebow, who ran to the vacated area or got off a pass, both for big plays.
When the defense finally starting bowing up at the end of the 3rd quarter, we may not have had a better defensive player than Kirston Pittman. He got that big interception on an alert play. He got consistent pressure on the quarterback. He forced the intentional grounding penalty on the second-to-last play of the game. He was excellent. It shows what difference one person playing up to his ability can do to make a difference in a game.
Tomorrow, we'll finally go around the SEC for this week. There was a distinct lack of interesting games outside of this one, however. Anyone wanna guess who the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week will be? I'll give you a hint. He came up pretty big on 4th downs.
Our offensive line played very well the entire game, except for a few penalties. When it came down to getting a hat on a hat and blocking someone, the offensive line did it successfully almost every time. We gave up no sacks, only two tipped passes, and only one QB hurry (which was also a tipped pass). In the running game, we had very few negative plays caused defenders getting into the backfield. The holes weren't always cavernous, but there was almost always something there for a running back to get into.
The entire line was good, from Ciron Black on the left to Carnell Stewart on the right. You could count on one hand the number of missed blocks, and you'd probably still have some fingers left over.
And of course, in that big 4th quarter and on those fourth downs, the offensive line came up huge. All game, however, there were none of the major breakdowns that made the Tulane and Mississippi State games occasionally "interesting".
What we rarely saw, however, was the offensive linemen getting to the second level. It was all they could do to keep the defensive line blocked. That's why we didn't see a whole lot of really big gains. We just pounded the ball into the line time after time after time, and finally won the game doing it. It was a remarkably physical game; the most physical I'd seen since, oh, maybe the 2001 Mississippi State game that we won in overtime.
We moved the ball very consistently. We got yards all game. We just failed to finish off some drives, and we missed some field goals. If we had not stalled in Florida territory once or twice, this would have been a very different game.
In the passing game, it's amazing how much this team misses Early Doucet, and how much better we'll be when we get him back. Against a good team like Florida, and without Early Doucet, we just aren't that dangerous of a team in the air. Miles said he's close to being back, and almost dressed out for this game. Brandon Lafell is a pretty good receiver, but it sure would help matters a lot if he was our #2 receiver instead of our #1, and if we had a receiver taking double teams away from him, or taking a man out of the box and away from the running game.
Jared Mitchell, I think, is going to be a good receiver, but he's definitely still developing. I don't know if he's really ready to have the role he currently has. When Doucet's back, Mitchell will go back to his previous role.
On the defensive side of the ball, when the LSU defense was struggling, which happened through most of the first three quarters, no one struggled more than the right defensive end combination of Rahim Alem and Kirston Pittman. On that shotgun option that a lot of teams run, where the QB gets the snap in the shotgun and either hands off to a running back up the middle or pulls it back and runs around end, Pittman and Alem were absolutely abused. Tebow holds that fake a lot longer than most other quarterbacks, forcing the defensive end to commit either to collapsing inside to get the running back or staying outside to guard against the QB keeper. When Tebow handed it to Moore, it resulted in big plays. When Tebow kept it, the same thing occurred. This is a very difficult play to defend if the blocking is there, which it usually was.
Pittman and Alem also missed several free shots at the quarterback, also leading to big plays. At least twice on Florida's first touchdown drive, Pittman and Alem came unblocked off the end and simply missed Tebow, who ran to the vacated area or got off a pass, both for big plays.
When the defense finally starting bowing up at the end of the 3rd quarter, we may not have had a better defensive player than Kirston Pittman. He got that big interception on an alert play. He got consistent pressure on the quarterback. He forced the intentional grounding penalty on the second-to-last play of the game. He was excellent. It shows what difference one person playing up to his ability can do to make a difference in a game.
Tomorrow, we'll finally go around the SEC for this week. There was a distinct lack of interesting games outside of this one, however. Anyone wanna guess who the GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Skill Position Player of the Week will be? I'll give you a hint. He came up pretty big on 4th downs.
Sunday, October 7, 2007
Florida Post-Game, Continued
It's morning now, and that game seems more unreal by the light of day and after a decent night's sleep than it did at 11:00pm last night. Matt Zemeck at College Football news said it better than I can:
The kids from LSU will remember this night more fondly than the Gators--especially since the national title is now in the Tigers' hands--but this was the kind of college football experience that transcends the scoreboard result and the emotions that currently dominate the winning and losing teams. Decades from now, these Tigers and Gators, in their 50s and 60s, will tell their children and grandchildren about October 6, 2007, a night when everything right about college football spilled out in full flower before an enraptured crowd in the sport's best nighttime setting.It's a beautiful sentiment about a beautiful game for which there is no shame in Florida's having lost it.
But let's get one thing straight right now. We outplayed Florida. We were the better team over the course of the 60 minute game. Florida outplayed us in the first quarter, but we outplayed them the rest of the game. Florida almost won anyway, in part because we missed field goals and in part because of penalties. But let's be clear about that. We outplayed them. How do I know?
- We outgained them 391 yards to 314.
- We won the turnover battle 2-1.
- We won the time of possession 35:52 to 24:03
Here in Alabama, there is the legend of Van Tiffin, a former Bama kicker back in the 80s. If the name Van Tiffin is mentioned, everyone immediately associates it with a last-second 52 yard field goal in the 1985 Iron Bowl to beat Auburn by 2. Every football fan here in Alabama knows the name, and associates it with "The Kick". LSU now has a modern equivalent (to go along with the Billy Cannon run) in Jacob Hester. He won't be remembered for one play, but for three. He converted two fourth downs and scored the game winning touchdown on LSU's final drive. Jacob Hester will forever be an LSU hero for that game.
To me, the quintessential moment of that game was Hester, having just scored the final touchdown, lying injured on the turf, with half his body in the end zone and half of it out.
Lest we allow Jacob Hester's phenomenal game overshadow the other players, let's also credit the defense, but let's make it a backhanded compliment. They really got up off the mat and played well in crunch time, after struggling so much early.
How much did they struggle? Not counting the final possession of the first half, where Florida simply kneeled the ball and went to the half, the defense gave up scores on 4 of Florida's first 5 possessions, including three touchdowns.
How much did they bounce back? Florida got 44 yards of offense and committed a turnover in the decisive 4th quarter. Going back to the closing minutes of the 3rd quarter, Florida's last 4 possessions gave them 74 yards and 2 turnovers.
They had our number early. They really had our defense figured out and moved the ball seemingly at will. I haven't watched the replay yet to figure out why they were able to do it, but it was impressive.
I don't want to lose track of all the different storylines of this game.
Matt Flynn gutted out a good performance. His first pass was way off the mark, but he played very well after that, and would have had really nice numbers if not for a couple drops.
If you didn't know before, Tim Tebow is a monster football player. I don't think college football has ever seen a player quite like him. He's a power running back with the arm and decision-making ability of a quality quarterback. And he's got the competitive spirit of a Michael Jordan, Walter Payton, Pete Rose, or Mark Messier. I don't know if he has a future in pro football with his particular skill set, but he could go down as the best college football player of the modern age.
There could well be a rematch in Atlanta. Florida does not control its destiny, but they only need to win out and hope Tennessee takes another loss. Until yesterday, Tennessee didn't look very good at all, so I think it's a fairly safe bet that if Florida wins out against Kentucky (after a week off), Georgia, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina before ending the season with out-of-conference games against Florida Atlantic and Florida State, they will end up in the championship game.
Now, after Les Miles' signature win on the LSU sidelines, he has a new challenge. He has to take a team coming off of that kind of game; a physical, brutal, and highly emotional game; and get them to channel their energy to the next opponent in time to get on the plane to Lexington next week. We got a big win, but if we don't continue the season, it won't mean much. The season continues, and it doesn't exactly get easy.
Saturday, October 6, 2007
Florida Post-Game: JACOB HESTER!
LSU has a new football hero, and his name is Jacob Hester. How huge is that man?
I'll have a lot more to say about this tomorrow. For tonight, I'm just going to experience the elation and live vicariously through Jacob Hester's achievements.
I'll have a lot more to say about this tomorrow. For tonight, I'm just going to experience the elation and live vicariously through Jacob Hester's achievements.
Game Day: Florida
There's a very big game today, but there's a lot between here and there. This really is the start of the most important run of the season. We play all four of our four best remaining teams on the schedule in the next 5 weeks. Florida, then Kentucky, then Auburn, then a week off, then Bama. If we can get through this, the schedule opens up a little bit, giving us teams that appear to be a notch below those guys: La Tech, Ole Miss, and Arkansas.
Anyway, here's the plan, subject to change because we have a house guest today.
Now - 9:00am: Whatever comes up.
9:00am - 11:00am: ESPN GameDay, broadcasting from LSU. While I normally avoid this show like the plague, I will watch it when it's at Baton Rouge.
11:00am - 11:30am: I'll watch the first few minutes of Wisconsin at Illinois on ESPN. I have soft spot for Ron Zook, who I think got jobbed at Florida and doesn't get enough credit for building the senior-heavy team that won the national championship last year.
11:30am - 2:30pm: Vandy at Auburn, Lincoln-Financial. Auburn looks to avoid the let down against Vandy. All the classic elements of a let down are there. They're coming off a big win. They're playing at home at 11:30 in the morning, when the crowd won't be buzzing. They're playing a decent team that you'd be tempted to think is not very good. And finally, they don't really have that great of a team themselves. I don't make predictions about games I expect to be competitive, so I won't here. I'm just saying that the prospects of a let down and upset are better than you often see.
2:30pm - 6:00pm: Georgia at Tennessee, CBS. All games in the East are big because the teams are so even. Here, almost halfway through the season, there are five teams with a legitimate shot at winning the East. These are two of them, each with one conference loss. This game may be an elimination game in the East. The loser will have lost two games to other Eastern Division teams, and so will need the other teams to lose 3 conference games in order to pass them in the standings. Neither team controls its destiny, but the winner needs only a little help to win the division. (Georgia would need South Carolina to lose a game, and Tennessee would need Florida to lose a game).
6:00pm - 7:00pm: Yoga. Meditation. OK, that's not true, but I'll probably try to rest up a bit before the LSU game.
7:00pm - 11:00pm: What do you think? Florida at LSU, CBS. There's really no more to say that hasn't been said about it. We know what we're up against. We know what bullets we have in the gun. It's time to play the game.
The landscape of the SEC will be drawn in much more detail today, but it won't be finished for a while.
Anyway, here's the plan, subject to change because we have a house guest today.
Now - 9:00am: Whatever comes up.
9:00am - 11:00am: ESPN GameDay, broadcasting from LSU. While I normally avoid this show like the plague, I will watch it when it's at Baton Rouge.
11:00am - 11:30am: I'll watch the first few minutes of Wisconsin at Illinois on ESPN. I have soft spot for Ron Zook, who I think got jobbed at Florida and doesn't get enough credit for building the senior-heavy team that won the national championship last year.
11:30am - 2:30pm: Vandy at Auburn, Lincoln-Financial. Auburn looks to avoid the let down against Vandy. All the classic elements of a let down are there. They're coming off a big win. They're playing at home at 11:30 in the morning, when the crowd won't be buzzing. They're playing a decent team that you'd be tempted to think is not very good. And finally, they don't really have that great of a team themselves. I don't make predictions about games I expect to be competitive, so I won't here. I'm just saying that the prospects of a let down and upset are better than you often see.
2:30pm - 6:00pm: Georgia at Tennessee, CBS. All games in the East are big because the teams are so even. Here, almost halfway through the season, there are five teams with a legitimate shot at winning the East. These are two of them, each with one conference loss. This game may be an elimination game in the East. The loser will have lost two games to other Eastern Division teams, and so will need the other teams to lose 3 conference games in order to pass them in the standings. Neither team controls its destiny, but the winner needs only a little help to win the division. (Georgia would need South Carolina to lose a game, and Tennessee would need Florida to lose a game).
6:00pm - 7:00pm: Yoga. Meditation. OK, that's not true, but I'll probably try to rest up a bit before the LSU game.
7:00pm - 11:00pm: What do you think? Florida at LSU, CBS. There's really no more to say that hasn't been said about it. We know what we're up against. We know what bullets we have in the gun. It's time to play the game.
The landscape of the SEC will be drawn in much more detail today, but it won't be finished for a while.
Friday, October 5, 2007
I wake up one day and the Cubs and Rockies are in the playoffs
Here are some basic, bullet-pointed observations about the LSU/Florida game tomorrow:
- With Doucet out, Flynn hobbling, and Perrilloux not throwing the ball, I have very little faith in our pass game.
- I have a lot of faith in our running game, particularly the between-the-tackles running of Hester, Scott, and Williams. I think that we're going to ride the running game as far as it will take us.
- Florida has a quick but undersized defensive line. The way you go after a line like that is to run straight at it. See the point above.
- I don't believe the rumors that Tebow's hurt, nor do I believe Meyer will hold Tony Joiner out.
- We may ride the running game, but we are going to have to be able to throw the ball effectively at least a little bit. Otherwise, Florida will just stack the box and sell out against the run on first and second down. That means our young and inexperienced receivers as well as our sometimes-struggling offensive linemen (at least, they sometimes struggle in pass protection) are going to have to come of age and play well.
- I've been thinking about how to blitz Tim Tebow. Given: Tim Tebow likes to run the ball up the middle rather than to the outside. Query: do you blitz up the middle? Or do you blitz tot he outside and leave your linebackers and safeties up the middle to tackle him if he gets through the defensive line? Probably a combination to keep him off guard.
- Everyone keeps saying that Andre Woodson is a Heisman candidate (though maybe not after last night). Is anyone seeing what Tebow is doing? They're claiming Auburn stopped him, but he still managed 275 yards of total offense. And that was a bad game.
Friday, September 28, 2007
More on Florida
I have truly and completely run out of things to say about Tulane, which is amazing since I've said so little.
I want to say yet one more thing about the Florida quarterback. I've read an awful lot about how Tim Tebow is taking a lot of punishment and is going to get himself hurt. I've read about how quarterbacks shouldn't take those kinds of hits on a regular basis, and that he is a shoulder separation or broken collarbone waiting to happen.
I agree that Tebow is so valuable to Florida that they need to do everything they reasonably can to avoid getting him hurt, while at the same time not asking him to avoid the things that make him so dangerous. My bone of contention here is the unsupported assumption that Tebow is like other QBs. If Matt Flynn, Andre Woodson, John Parker Wilson, or Brandon Cox was taking 28 hits in a game, that would be a very big cause for concern indeed, but I don't think it's such a big deal for Tebow.
To avoid burying the lede further, my point here is that Tebow is a power running back with a strong and accurate arm. He's not a normal quarterback out there trying to get yards with quickness and foot speed. If Tebow had a weak or inaccurate arm, he'd be a Division 1 power running back in the PJ Hill (Wisconsin) or Jerome Bettis mold. If he wasn't a quarterback, he'd be one of the best power running backs in the country.
That is to say, while he is certainly not immune to injury, he's a lot tougher than your typical quarterback.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Around the SEC Preview
I have a guest blogging assistant this morning, as my 6 1/2 month old daughter prematurely decided she no longer wanted to be in bed.
This will be a pretty good week in the SEC, but it's partially offset by a strange TV schedule, and the failure of ESPN to air one of the more interesting matchups.
Mississippi State at South Carolina, 11:30am, Lincoln-Financial. Too bad I'll miss most or all of this game due to the LSU game's 11:00am scheduling. South Carolina's strong running game will have a test against MSU's strong defense. Unfortunately for South Carolina, their best defensive player, senior LB Jasper Brinkley, was lost for the season with a knee injury sustained against LSU. You really hate to see that for a guy who had emerged as a team leader and arguably his team's best player. He'll be back, but probably not before taking his skills to the NFL. He could apply for a medical redshirt if he wants, and come back next year. I think.
This year in the SEC, at least early, we're seeing a couple of elite teams (LSU and Florida) followed by a big pack of teams that are more or less even, all with their own strengths and weaknesses, but all of whom are more than capable of beating each other on any particular day. MSU and South Carolina are among these teams, and both have picked up a big win in the conference. It will be interesting to see if any of these teams break out of the pack and emerge as a 3rd power in the SEC. So far, the best candidates for it seem to be South Carolina and Kentucky, which is strange and exciting.
MSU's problem is a lack of dynamic offense, and I don't see that changing this year. Their offense will limit them all year. They won't be able to put up a lot of points on anyone or score a lot of quick points. They have a good running game, but they don't have a Darren McFadden on their roster, and their passing game is rather poor. They have to grind out yards on the ground 4-8 yards at a time, get turnovers, and play tough defense week after week in order to win. That's hard to do and it will take its toll. Any defensive slips or offensive turnovers will put this team in a deep hole in any given game. For this reason, while I think they're capable of beating anyone out there, they're going to have a tough time actually pulling it off consistently.
Ole Miss at Georgia, noon, no television that I know of. Strangely, this game is being played at noon with no television coverage (I think). It's actually a pretty interesting matchup. Georgia's solid running game and inconsistent passing game will be going up against Ole Miss's young, talented, but thin defense. Ole Miss's solid running game and overachieving passing game will be going up against Georgia's solid defense. Georgia's the better team, but they're coming off a big, draining, emotional win against Bama. Can they respond? Ole Miss proved they can stay with a very good team that isn't up for them. Either that or they proved they are a better team than we thought.
Florida Atlantic at Kentucky: The less said the better. Alright, not really. Kentucky obviously is doing some things right. They're 4-0. They're ranked. They have an explosive offense. But they still don't have much of a defense, and they're not a very physical team. As such, I think they're a threat to be upset by anyone who comes along, including Florida Atlantic. Will it happen? Probably not, but it could. I just think a team like this is a bad game waiting to happen. When it happens, it will be interesting to see if they have what it takes to a) win that game anyway, and b) recover from it mentally.
Alabama vs. Florida State (neutral site), 4:00pm CBS. In another strange and unusual television twist, the CBS game is at 4:00 rather than at 2:30pm. This means it will probably interfere with the 7:00 ESPN game. Bama is another one of those roughly equal teams in the big pack this year, and they've shown signs of breaking out of it. The running game is much better than expected, as is the defense. The passing game has struggled, but the potential remains there. If I was a big Bama fan, I would be very concerned about the extremely physical games my team is playing, especially with so little depth on defense. Those big players can only get worn out so many times before they struggle to come back from it week after week. They've played two games like that in succession, and this game will be another one. That will take its toll.
Florida State is very beatable. They just aren't a very good team at all. Their offense has struggled, getting only 200 yards passing and about 130 yards rushing per game. The only time I actually watched them play, the first half against Clemson, their offensive line was very poor. Supposedly it's improved a lot. They'll have a pretty good test against the Bama defense, which has caused teams problems this season.
North Texas at Arkansas, 6:00pm no television. Eh, who cares?
Eastern Michigan at Vandy, 6:00pm, no television. Vandy's drive for 6 wins continues. This one will be #3. They'll need to figure out how to win at least one more SEC game though. I still think Vandy is a pretty good team, but so is everyone else they still have to play in the SEC. Those other teams are a lot more accustomed to winning than is Vandy.
Auburn at Florida, 7:00pm ESPN. This is the marquee SEC matchup of the week, and it has a line of about 18 points in favor of Florida. Alright, Auburn's not a very good team. I don't think I'm telling anyone anything they don't already know. However, this is a team with a lot of playmakers on defense, good coaches, and an offense that is.. uh.. waiting to break out. They have talent at running back and offensive line. They're just very young at those positions. They're improving weekly. If they can take that big leap forward and become the playmakers that Auburn needs, they will do some things.
The bigger problem is the passing game, and there appears to be no solution to that problem on the horizon. At least not for this year. They simply need an infusion of talent, and that doesn't often come mid-season. Like MSU, they'll have to grind out wins with the running game and the defense.
This will be a pretty good week in the SEC, but it's partially offset by a strange TV schedule, and the failure of ESPN to air one of the more interesting matchups.
Mississippi State at South Carolina, 11:30am, Lincoln-Financial. Too bad I'll miss most or all of this game due to the LSU game's 11:00am scheduling. South Carolina's strong running game will have a test against MSU's strong defense. Unfortunately for South Carolina, their best defensive player, senior LB Jasper Brinkley, was lost for the season with a knee injury sustained against LSU. You really hate to see that for a guy who had emerged as a team leader and arguably his team's best player. He'll be back, but probably not before taking his skills to the NFL. He could apply for a medical redshirt if he wants, and come back next year. I think.
This year in the SEC, at least early, we're seeing a couple of elite teams (LSU and Florida) followed by a big pack of teams that are more or less even, all with their own strengths and weaknesses, but all of whom are more than capable of beating each other on any particular day. MSU and South Carolina are among these teams, and both have picked up a big win in the conference. It will be interesting to see if any of these teams break out of the pack and emerge as a 3rd power in the SEC. So far, the best candidates for it seem to be South Carolina and Kentucky, which is strange and exciting.
MSU's problem is a lack of dynamic offense, and I don't see that changing this year. Their offense will limit them all year. They won't be able to put up a lot of points on anyone or score a lot of quick points. They have a good running game, but they don't have a Darren McFadden on their roster, and their passing game is rather poor. They have to grind out yards on the ground 4-8 yards at a time, get turnovers, and play tough defense week after week in order to win. That's hard to do and it will take its toll. Any defensive slips or offensive turnovers will put this team in a deep hole in any given game. For this reason, while I think they're capable of beating anyone out there, they're going to have a tough time actually pulling it off consistently.
Ole Miss at Georgia, noon, no television that I know of. Strangely, this game is being played at noon with no television coverage (I think). It's actually a pretty interesting matchup. Georgia's solid running game and inconsistent passing game will be going up against Ole Miss's young, talented, but thin defense. Ole Miss's solid running game and overachieving passing game will be going up against Georgia's solid defense. Georgia's the better team, but they're coming off a big, draining, emotional win against Bama. Can they respond? Ole Miss proved they can stay with a very good team that isn't up for them. Either that or they proved they are a better team than we thought.
Florida Atlantic at Kentucky: The less said the better. Alright, not really. Kentucky obviously is doing some things right. They're 4-0. They're ranked. They have an explosive offense. But they still don't have much of a defense, and they're not a very physical team. As such, I think they're a threat to be upset by anyone who comes along, including Florida Atlantic. Will it happen? Probably not, but it could. I just think a team like this is a bad game waiting to happen. When it happens, it will be interesting to see if they have what it takes to a) win that game anyway, and b) recover from it mentally.
Alabama vs. Florida State (neutral site), 4:00pm CBS. In another strange and unusual television twist, the CBS game is at 4:00 rather than at 2:30pm. This means it will probably interfere with the 7:00 ESPN game. Bama is another one of those roughly equal teams in the big pack this year, and they've shown signs of breaking out of it. The running game is much better than expected, as is the defense. The passing game has struggled, but the potential remains there. If I was a big Bama fan, I would be very concerned about the extremely physical games my team is playing, especially with so little depth on defense. Those big players can only get worn out so many times before they struggle to come back from it week after week. They've played two games like that in succession, and this game will be another one. That will take its toll.
Florida State is very beatable. They just aren't a very good team at all. Their offense has struggled, getting only 200 yards passing and about 130 yards rushing per game. The only time I actually watched them play, the first half against Clemson, their offensive line was very poor. Supposedly it's improved a lot. They'll have a pretty good test against the Bama defense, which has caused teams problems this season.
North Texas at Arkansas, 6:00pm no television. Eh, who cares?
Eastern Michigan at Vandy, 6:00pm, no television. Vandy's drive for 6 wins continues. This one will be #3. They'll need to figure out how to win at least one more SEC game though. I still think Vandy is a pretty good team, but so is everyone else they still have to play in the SEC. Those other teams are a lot more accustomed to winning than is Vandy.
Auburn at Florida, 7:00pm ESPN. This is the marquee SEC matchup of the week, and it has a line of about 18 points in favor of Florida. Alright, Auburn's not a very good team. I don't think I'm telling anyone anything they don't already know. However, this is a team with a lot of playmakers on defense, good coaches, and an offense that is.. uh.. waiting to break out. They have talent at running back and offensive line. They're just very young at those positions. They're improving weekly. If they can take that big leap forward and become the playmakers that Auburn needs, they will do some things.
The bigger problem is the passing game, and there appears to be no solution to that problem on the horizon. At least not for this year. They simply need an infusion of talent, and that doesn't often come mid-season. Like MSU, they'll have to grind out wins with the running game and the defense.
Labels:
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Auburn,
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florida,
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kentucky,
mississippi state,
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south carolina,
vandy
Monday, September 24, 2007
Week 4 Around the SEC
In a week that saw only one significant upset on the national level (Michigan over Penn State), the action in the SEC was probably the most exciting stuff all weekend. The LSU-South Carolina game wasn't the most thrilling in the world, but it was the highest profile game of the week. Here's what happened this week around the SEC:
Georgia 26
Bama 23 (OT)
This was expected to be a good game, and it didn't disappoint in the least. These two teams played this game tough the entire time they were on the field. Georgia sprinted out to a 10-0 lead, but didn't appear comfortable at any time except for their first drive, in which they scored a quick touchdown after marching the length of the field with ease. Bama didn't give them anything easy the rest of the game.
I said of this game:
Kentucky 42
Arkansas 29
This was another one of those back-and-forth type games. Early, it looked like Arkansas would run away with it, as they scored they jumped out to a 20-7 lead. Then Kentucky made a furious rally to get it to 21-20 in the 3rd quarter. Arkansas scored the next 9 points on a safety and a touchdown return of the ensuing free kick before Kentucky scored the final 21 points of the game. I'm sorry I didn't get to watch this game, but I was watching the Bama-Georgia game instead.
Jones and McFadden torched the Kentucky defense as expected for 306 yards rushing between them, plus Felix Jones returned that free kick for a touchdown. Surprisingly, despite 338 yards rushing, almost 500 total yards of offense, and touchdowns by both the special teams AND the defense, Arkansas still didn't put up a ton of points. Having outgained Kentucky by 60 yards and scored two non-offensive touchdowns, I don't really understand why they lost so badly. Having not watched the game, I don't really have any insight.
But I have some takeaway lessons:
Florida 30
Ole Miss 24
It's hard to imagine me getting it more wrong than this. Here is what I said:
Blake Adams played a whale of a ballgame, with over 300 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, and a one-game GTQBPI of 9.03. That's outstanding against a team as good as Florida. It gave his team a chance to pull off a major upset, but in the end there was just too much Tim Tebow. Between his running and his passing, he accounted for 427 yards of offense and 2 touchdowns. His GTQBPI was 8.31, and he either ran or passed 51 times on the game. That's good enough to win the coveted GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Player of the Week for the 4th consecutive time.
Auburn 55
New Mexico State 20
Auburn stops the bleeding at least temporarily by getting an easy win over NMSU. Here's what I said of this game:
Mississippi State 31
Gardner Webb 15
OK, they let a team from the former Division I-AA put up 15 points on them and stay within 2 scores. No one ever said MSU had a dynamic high-powered offense. They're going to have to grind out wins, even against weak teams, but they just ground out their 3rd win. In truth though, they jumped out to a 31-3 lead, and then gave up some scores when the game was out of reach. They need to figure out how to win 3 more to get to a bowl game. It won't be easy.
Tennessee 48
Arkansas State 27
Arkansas State stayed within striking distance for most of the game, but never could quite do more than keep it close. Before you start thinking about how Tennessee must have looked bad, keep in mind that Arkansas State gave Texas all they wanted earlier in the season.
That's all I have.
We're now in 1st place in the SEC West thanks to Bama's loss. We're the only undefeated SEC West team. The East has two undefeated teams in Kentucky and Florida. No, this isn't basketball.
Georgia 26
Bama 23 (OT)
This was expected to be a good game, and it didn't disappoint in the least. These two teams played this game tough the entire time they were on the field. Georgia sprinted out to a 10-0 lead, but didn't appear comfortable at any time except for their first drive, in which they scored a quick touchdown after marching the length of the field with ease. Bama didn't give them anything easy the rest of the game.
I said of this game:
They key to this game is Georgia's young, talented, but inconsistent quarterback Matthew Stafford. When he's good, Georgia is a very good team. When he's bad, Georgia is a rather bad team. He was good against Oklahoma State and bad against South Carolina. If Bama's defense can keep him off balance, they'll have a good weekend. If they let Stafford get into a good rhythm and stay there, it's going to be a long night.Stafford had an OK night, but neither great nor terrible. He was 19 for 35 with 224 yards passing, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He avoided getting sacked. He had a one-game GTQBPI of 5.65, which is not great, but is not bad for a BIG game. He was not really the key to the game, however, because he had neither a great game nor a bad game. The key was Georgia's solid running attack, which put up 153 tough yards and wore down the Bama defense.
Kentucky 42
Arkansas 29
This was another one of those back-and-forth type games. Early, it looked like Arkansas would run away with it, as they scored they jumped out to a 20-7 lead. Then Kentucky made a furious rally to get it to 21-20 in the 3rd quarter. Arkansas scored the next 9 points on a safety and a touchdown return of the ensuing free kick before Kentucky scored the final 21 points of the game. I'm sorry I didn't get to watch this game, but I was watching the Bama-Georgia game instead.
Jones and McFadden torched the Kentucky defense as expected for 306 yards rushing between them, plus Felix Jones returned that free kick for a touchdown. Surprisingly, despite 338 yards rushing, almost 500 total yards of offense, and touchdowns by both the special teams AND the defense, Arkansas still didn't put up a ton of points. Having outgained Kentucky by 60 yards and scored two non-offensive touchdowns, I don't really understand why they lost so badly. Having not watched the game, I don't really have any insight.
But I have some takeaway lessons:
- neither of these teams have good defenses.
- both of these teams are very dangerous, but also beatable.
Florida 30
Ole Miss 24
It's hard to imagine me getting it more wrong than this. Here is what I said:
The bad news is that Florida is so much better than Ole Miss that we won't really get an opportunity to gauge how good Ole Miss is.... I think Florida will be able to find a LOT of mismatches.
Blake Adams played a whale of a ballgame, with over 300 yards passing, 2 touchdowns, and a one-game GTQBPI of 9.03. That's outstanding against a team as good as Florida. It gave his team a chance to pull off a major upset, but in the end there was just too much Tim Tebow. Between his running and his passing, he accounted for 427 yards of offense and 2 touchdowns. His GTQBPI was 8.31, and he either ran or passed 51 times on the game. That's good enough to win the coveted GeauxTuscaloosa Offensive Player of the Week for the 4th consecutive time.
Auburn 55
New Mexico State 20
Auburn stops the bleeding at least temporarily by getting an easy win over NMSU. Here's what I said of this game:
Keep an eye on that New Mexico State-Auburn score. Don't be surprised if New Mexico State has a shot at this game in the 4th quarter. Auburn's offense is struggling immensely due to poor blocking and lack of playmakers at the skill positions. NMSU plays that pass-happy Hal Mumme offense. If they can avoid giving Auburn short fields and can find a way to put up 3 touchdowns, they have a real chance here.NMSU put up a few points, but they also committed 6 turnovers. They actually only outgained by about 40 yards on the game, but those short fields killed their chances. Auburn QBs had a solid game, even if they weren't spectacular. Next week, they get Florida but also get Brad Lester back. Let's see if that provides the magic cure to Auburn's ills.
Mississippi State 31
Gardner Webb 15
OK, they let a team from the former Division I-AA put up 15 points on them and stay within 2 scores. No one ever said MSU had a dynamic high-powered offense. They're going to have to grind out wins, even against weak teams, but they just ground out their 3rd win. In truth though, they jumped out to a 31-3 lead, and then gave up some scores when the game was out of reach. They need to figure out how to win 3 more to get to a bowl game. It won't be easy.
Tennessee 48
Arkansas State 27
Arkansas State stayed within striking distance for most of the game, but never could quite do more than keep it close. Before you start thinking about how Tennessee must have looked bad, keep in mind that Arkansas State gave Texas all they wanted earlier in the season.
That's all I have.
We're now in 1st place in the SEC West thanks to Bama's loss. We're the only undefeated SEC West team. The East has two undefeated teams in Kentucky and Florida. No, this isn't basketball.
Saturday, September 22, 2007
GameDay: South Carolina
OK, I got up at 4:30am today because the baby decided she REALLY didn't want to be in bed anymore. Is she excited about football? That's all I can assume.
So what are the plans for today? Well, there's football of course.
Now until 9:00am: chores, family activity, maybe watch a movie on Tivo, maybe go do the grocery shopping.
9:00am - 11:00am: ESPN GameDay is in Tuscaloosa, which is actually kind of disappointing. I had hoped they'd come here for the LSU-Bama game. I suppose they still might, but they usually don't go to the same place twice in one season. I may or may not watch any of it. Honestly, probably not. Mrs. GeauxTuscaloosa wants to go to the relatively new bakery in Northport. I love a good bakery, so she didn't have to twist my arm. This is a "bread" bakery rather than a "sweets" bakery. I really wish there was a good donut shop here in Tuscaloosa. I find Krispie Kreme to be all kinds of nasty. I know I'm in the minority on that, but when you were raised on donuts from Cal's Bakery in Gonzales, Louisiana, it's hard to go from that to this oddly flavored, oddly textured doughy donut from Krispie Kreme. Whenever I'm visiting my parents, we end up spending like $30 on donuts from Cal's. If anyone knows of a really good donut available in Tuscaloosa, I'm all ears. But I digress.
11:00am - 11:30am: Bide my time.
11:30am - 2:30pm: Florida at Ole Miss, Lincoln-Financial. When I was a kid, my Dad called the neighborhood convenience store the "Pac-A-Sac" even though it was a 7-Eleven, and later a Circle-K. It had previously been called Pac-A-Sac, but only for a couple years, and had changed its name before I was old enough to remember it. Since we moved to Gonzales when I was 2 years old, and it had undoubtedly changed its name by the time I was 5 years old, my Dad had only known this store as a Pac-A-Sac for a maximum of about 3 years, but continued to call it by that name for another decade. I have decided that I'm not quite old enough yet to refuse to call things by their new names, so I won't call it "Jefferson Pilot". It's "Lincoln-Financial", even if it sounds wrong. I'll just get used to it.
I can't say this matchup intrigues me at all. I'll watch it, because it's my first chance to see Ole Miss, and another chance to see Florida, but I have no expectations that Ole Miss will be able to stay in this game.
2:30pm - 6:00pm: South Carolina at LSU, CBS. The more I think about this game, the less supremely confident I become. USC has a really solid defense all around. They also have a very good running game. MSU was able to run the ball on us early in that game. Blake Mitchell has, at times, been a very good quarterback. Of course, he's the TYPE of quarterback we have mauled all season: a drop-back passer without good escapability. We're the clear favorite for very good reason, but this matchup is not as bad a lot of people, including myself earlier in the week, seemed to think.
Once again, a key is going to be how our offensive line is able to get a push against that defense. If we've shown any chinks in the armor, it's been on the offensive line.
6:00pm - 7:00pm: 2nd Quarter of Kentucky at Arkansas, ESPN2: I really want to know why ESPN schedules the #2 and #3 SEC matchups of the week to be played mostly at the same time. I know that the SEC probably gets more money by giving ESPN the #3 matchup rather than by giving that matchup to Lincoln-Financial, but as an SEC fan, I sure would prefer to see Kentucky at Arkansas rather than Florida at Ole Miss, but in order to see this game, I'd have to give up watching Georgia at Bama. I won't be doing that unless Georgia at Bama is a blowout.
Since SportsCenter and College Football Live haven't been bloviating endlessly on the subject of Darren McFadden's injury, I'm assuming he's good to go on this game. In the last few years, Kentucky has had an abysmal defense, and Arkansas proved last week it is very vulnerable to the pass. Kentucky is as good of a passing team as there is in the conference right now, with the possible exception of Florida, and McFadden and Jones put up yards against even the great defenses. There could be 90 points in this game.
7:00pm - 10:30pm or so: Georgia at Bama, ESPN: I believe I've said it before, but I'll say it again. The key here is Matthew Stafford. He's very talented and very young, but he is also inconsistent. When he's good and in a rhythm, Georgia is a very good team. When he's off-balance and out of rhythm, Georgia is very beatable. The key to this game will be what Bama does to try to disrupt Stafford, and how Stafford responds. If Stafford is sharp, I believe Bama has little chance to win this game. If Bama can make Stafford struggle, they will likely win this game.
Watch out also for special teams. Both teams have great return men who can put points on the board.
Final Note: Keep an eye on that New Mexico State-Auburn score. Don't be surprised if New Mexico State has a shot at this game in the 4th quarter. Auburn's offense is struggling immensely due to poor blocking and lack of playmakers at the skill positions. NMSU plays that pass-happy Hal Mumme offense. If they can avoid giving Auburn short fields and can find a way to put up 3 touchdowns, they have a real chance here.
So what are the plans for today? Well, there's football of course.
Now until 9:00am: chores, family activity, maybe watch a movie on Tivo, maybe go do the grocery shopping.
9:00am - 11:00am: ESPN GameDay is in Tuscaloosa, which is actually kind of disappointing. I had hoped they'd come here for the LSU-Bama game. I suppose they still might, but they usually don't go to the same place twice in one season. I may or may not watch any of it. Honestly, probably not. Mrs. GeauxTuscaloosa wants to go to the relatively new bakery in Northport. I love a good bakery, so she didn't have to twist my arm. This is a "bread" bakery rather than a "sweets" bakery. I really wish there was a good donut shop here in Tuscaloosa. I find Krispie Kreme to be all kinds of nasty. I know I'm in the minority on that, but when you were raised on donuts from Cal's Bakery in Gonzales, Louisiana, it's hard to go from that to this oddly flavored, oddly textured doughy donut from Krispie Kreme. Whenever I'm visiting my parents, we end up spending like $30 on donuts from Cal's. If anyone knows of a really good donut available in Tuscaloosa, I'm all ears. But I digress.
11:00am - 11:30am: Bide my time.
11:30am - 2:30pm: Florida at Ole Miss, Lincoln-Financial. When I was a kid, my Dad called the neighborhood convenience store the "Pac-A-Sac" even though it was a 7-Eleven, and later a Circle-K. It had previously been called Pac-A-Sac, but only for a couple years, and had changed its name before I was old enough to remember it. Since we moved to Gonzales when I was 2 years old, and it had undoubtedly changed its name by the time I was 5 years old, my Dad had only known this store as a Pac-A-Sac for a maximum of about 3 years, but continued to call it by that name for another decade. I have decided that I'm not quite old enough yet to refuse to call things by their new names, so I won't call it "Jefferson Pilot". It's "Lincoln-Financial", even if it sounds wrong. I'll just get used to it.
I can't say this matchup intrigues me at all. I'll watch it, because it's my first chance to see Ole Miss, and another chance to see Florida, but I have no expectations that Ole Miss will be able to stay in this game.
2:30pm - 6:00pm: South Carolina at LSU, CBS. The more I think about this game, the less supremely confident I become. USC has a really solid defense all around. They also have a very good running game. MSU was able to run the ball on us early in that game. Blake Mitchell has, at times, been a very good quarterback. Of course, he's the TYPE of quarterback we have mauled all season: a drop-back passer without good escapability. We're the clear favorite for very good reason, but this matchup is not as bad a lot of people, including myself earlier in the week, seemed to think.
Once again, a key is going to be how our offensive line is able to get a push against that defense. If we've shown any chinks in the armor, it's been on the offensive line.
6:00pm - 7:00pm: 2nd Quarter of Kentucky at Arkansas, ESPN2: I really want to know why ESPN schedules the #2 and #3 SEC matchups of the week to be played mostly at the same time. I know that the SEC probably gets more money by giving ESPN the #3 matchup rather than by giving that matchup to Lincoln-Financial, but as an SEC fan, I sure would prefer to see Kentucky at Arkansas rather than Florida at Ole Miss, but in order to see this game, I'd have to give up watching Georgia at Bama. I won't be doing that unless Georgia at Bama is a blowout.
Since SportsCenter and College Football Live haven't been bloviating endlessly on the subject of Darren McFadden's injury, I'm assuming he's good to go on this game. In the last few years, Kentucky has had an abysmal defense, and Arkansas proved last week it is very vulnerable to the pass. Kentucky is as good of a passing team as there is in the conference right now, with the possible exception of Florida, and McFadden and Jones put up yards against even the great defenses. There could be 90 points in this game.
7:00pm - 10:30pm or so: Georgia at Bama, ESPN: I believe I've said it before, but I'll say it again. The key here is Matthew Stafford. He's very talented and very young, but he is also inconsistent. When he's good and in a rhythm, Georgia is a very good team. When he's off-balance and out of rhythm, Georgia is very beatable. The key to this game will be what Bama does to try to disrupt Stafford, and how Stafford responds. If Stafford is sharp, I believe Bama has little chance to win this game. If Bama can make Stafford struggle, they will likely win this game.
Watch out also for special teams. Both teams have great return men who can put points on the board.
Final Note: Keep an eye on that New Mexico State-Auburn score. Don't be surprised if New Mexico State has a shot at this game in the 4th quarter. Auburn's offense is struggling immensely due to poor blocking and lack of playmakers at the skill positions. NMSU plays that pass-happy Hal Mumme offense. If they can avoid giving Auburn short fields and can find a way to put up 3 touchdowns, they have a real chance here.
Monday, September 17, 2007
Heisman Candidate
I will rest my case in part on the GeauxTuscaloosa Quarterback Productivity Index, which as you may recall rates quarterbacks based on the following formula:
GTQBPI=((yards passing + 20*touchdown passes - 30*interceptions) + (yards rushing + 20*touchdown rushes))/(number of pass attempts + number of rushes)
It's a rate stat and is designed to give you a number in units of yards-per-play. It tells you how what kind of productivity you can expect when the offense puts the ball in his hands and tells him to do something. In 2006, the average around the SEC was around 7.0 yards per play. Jamarcus Russell led the conference with 9.16 yards per play.
This year, Tim Tebow is setting a blistering pace of 12.09 yards per play. It's second in the SEC to Ryan Perrilloux's 12.15 yards per play.
But let's examine the numbers a little further. the GTQBPI doesn't really say who is best. It says who is succeeding the most in their role. Because it examines how you're succeeding in your role, a below average QB like Casey Dick can have a fairly respectable 6.58 yards per play even though everyone acknowledges he is one of weaker QBs in the conference. His team doesn't ask much of him, though, so he's able to have success in his limited role. Meanwhile, a much better QB in John Parker Wilson is struggling with a 5.92 yards per play GTQBPI. He's a better QB than is Casey Dick, with more than double the passing yards, but his team asks him to throw as many as 45 times per game. With that level of expectation, he is not having a commiserate level of success.
A very high GTQBPI suggests a player may be ready to take on a bigger role with his team. He may be ready to help his team more by having more asked of him. With a guy taking on a bigger role, defenses will key on him more, and you can expect his rate of production decrease, because he's no longer taking teams by surprise.
Tim Tebow has an exceptional GTQBPI. Should he take on a bigger role in the Florida offense. While his 12.07 yards per play may suggest he should take on a bigger role, it would simply not be possible. Only 2 quarterbacks in the SEC have had more pass attempts plus rushing attempts (Wilson and Andre Woodson). He's leading the conference in passing yards and has far more rushing yards than any other QB. In fact, he has more more rushing yards than the rest of the SEC quarterbacks COMBINED. (Keep in mind though, several quarterbacks have negative rushing yards). Plus, Tebow runs option. Florida doesn't run a lot of straight handoff plays. When they run, they usually run either Tebow straight up, or run an option where Tebow has to make a read and a decision on what to do with the ball.
Almost every play Florida runs requires Tebow to either a) throw the ball, b) run the ball, or c) make a decision about whether to run it or give it to someone else. His role in the offense cannot be any bigger. And despite the fact that defenses know everything runs through him, he still has an extraordinary rate of production of 12.07 yards per play.
Perrilloux's rating is higher, but he has a much smaller role in the offense. The only comparable QB in the conference, as far as his role with the team, is Andre Woodson. Woodson is a great QB who is expected to be drafted in the top half of the first round by the NFL next April. He's a huge part of his team's offense. Woodson's GTQBPI is a very strong 8.35 yards per play, good for 3rd in the SEC. This is similar to his rating for last year. It is, however, far lower than Tebow's.
Tebow is simply dominating the defenses he's played, and he's done it against pretty fair teams in Troy and Tennessee. They may not be great defenses, but honestly Tebow's probably only going to face one great defense this year. He'll face a couple more good ones, but there's little reason to believe his production will drop off significantly against South Carolina or Georgia.
I don't pay much attention to the talking heads and their Heisman talk, but if Tebow isn't getting any Heisman pub yet, he should be very soon.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Game Day: MTSU
OK, it's Game Day again, this time for the Blue Raiders of MTSU. This will be a first for GeauxTuscaloosa, a football game that I will not be seeing. As explained earlier in the week, I will not be able to be home for this game. I'll be at a wedding for a friend. Yes, it's a friend who isn't interested in football.
I won't be able to listen to much of it on the radio, but I may be able to catch the second half on the way home. That means there won't be any "First Replay" or "Second Replay" posts. I'll have to figure out other things to talk about.
I'll also miss all of the second most interesting game in the SEC this week: Alabama vs. Arkansas. I said we'd find out more about Bama with their matchup against Vandy, and we did. We found out that Bama is a legitimate bowl team who is a threat to beat any team on their schedule. This week, we will find out even more. We'll find out if they're a legitimate threat in the SEC West, or are they just spoilers trying to get to the Music City Bowl.
So, here's my schedule of the day:
Now to 11:30am: Avoid GameDay on ESPN like the plague. Do some errands. Walk the dog. There is no interesting 11:00am game, so skip that.
11:30-2:30pm: Mississippi State at Auburn: Here in Tuscaloosa, sports talk radio has been absolutely dominated by criticism of Auburn this week. The Auburn fans are very upset at how bad their team has looked the first two weeks. I think highly of Tommy Tuberville's coaching abilities, but there is no one to blame but him for the fact that Auburn has such a poor offensive line and a lack of playmaking wide receivers. He's been recruiting and coaching these guys for their entire careers, and if they didn't recruit good receivers and offensive linemen 3 and 4 years ago such that he does not have that wave of juniors and seniors ready to take the reins of the offense, that's his own fault. Auburn fans are right to criticize him for it.
If you're 7 years into your tenure as coach and a true freshman is starting on the offensive line, either that freshman must be incredible or you have a lot to answer for. It looks like Tubby has a lot to answer for.
With such an inexperienced offense, this is a team that is likely to improve considerably over the course of the season, but for right now they're vulnerable, and it's my conclusion from observing these teams that MSU matches up pretty well with Auburn. They have a pretty good defensive line that can take advantage of Auburn's inexperienced offensive front and a very good left tackle who may be able to neutralize Auburn's best player, Quentin Groves. If Michael Henig can avoid the mistakes that doomed them against LSU, they have a shot to win this game.
If MSU wins, it's going to be a VERY interesting week in Alabama.
2:30-4:30, Tennessee at Florida. This is a very interesting game, because we don't really know how good Florida is. They've beaten up on some weak teams early in the year, but haven't faced a real test. Then again, we don't know how good Tennessee is either. Their defense certainly looked very vulnerable against Cal, and now they're missing a starting cornerback to injury.
I think Tennessee will get its points. The questions are
7:00pm-9:00pm or so: Attend wedding reception: The wedding itself is a small, very private family affair to which I am not invited (neither is anyone else who isn't related, from what I understand. The reception is where the action is. I decided not to get a hotel, because my wife and child will not be there. My wife was invited, but it was not possible to bring the baby because the venue is an art museum, with no children allowed in the building. That would have meant we'd have to get a sitter for the baby, and the whole thing just seemed way to fraught with danger and difficulty. Therefore, I'm going alone, and I'm coming back the same night.
9:00pm-whenever: I will be driving home, hoping to catch the second half of the game on the radio. As I get closer to Tuscaloosa, WWL will likely go out, and I'll switch over to the Bama-Arky game if it's still on.
The rumors around the message board is that Flynn is walking around in a boot and either a) is not ready to go, or b) shouldn't play and risk more serious injury. If so, it looks like Ryan Perrilloux may get his long-awaited first start. Stay tuned.
I won't be able to listen to much of it on the radio, but I may be able to catch the second half on the way home. That means there won't be any "First Replay" or "Second Replay" posts. I'll have to figure out other things to talk about.
I'll also miss all of the second most interesting game in the SEC this week: Alabama vs. Arkansas. I said we'd find out more about Bama with their matchup against Vandy, and we did. We found out that Bama is a legitimate bowl team who is a threat to beat any team on their schedule. This week, we will find out even more. We'll find out if they're a legitimate threat in the SEC West, or are they just spoilers trying to get to the Music City Bowl.
So, here's my schedule of the day:
Now to 11:30am: Avoid GameDay on ESPN like the plague. Do some errands. Walk the dog. There is no interesting 11:00am game, so skip that.
11:30-2:30pm: Mississippi State at Auburn: Here in Tuscaloosa, sports talk radio has been absolutely dominated by criticism of Auburn this week. The Auburn fans are very upset at how bad their team has looked the first two weeks. I think highly of Tommy Tuberville's coaching abilities, but there is no one to blame but him for the fact that Auburn has such a poor offensive line and a lack of playmaking wide receivers. He's been recruiting and coaching these guys for their entire careers, and if they didn't recruit good receivers and offensive linemen 3 and 4 years ago such that he does not have that wave of juniors and seniors ready to take the reins of the offense, that's his own fault. Auburn fans are right to criticize him for it.
If you're 7 years into your tenure as coach and a true freshman is starting on the offensive line, either that freshman must be incredible or you have a lot to answer for. It looks like Tubby has a lot to answer for.
With such an inexperienced offense, this is a team that is likely to improve considerably over the course of the season, but for right now they're vulnerable, and it's my conclusion from observing these teams that MSU matches up pretty well with Auburn. They have a pretty good defensive line that can take advantage of Auburn's inexperienced offensive front and a very good left tackle who may be able to neutralize Auburn's best player, Quentin Groves. If Michael Henig can avoid the mistakes that doomed them against LSU, they have a shot to win this game.
If MSU wins, it's going to be a VERY interesting week in Alabama.
2:30-4:30, Tennessee at Florida. This is a very interesting game, because we don't really know how good Florida is. They've beaten up on some weak teams early in the year, but haven't faced a real test. Then again, we don't know how good Tennessee is either. Their defense certainly looked very vulnerable against Cal, and now they're missing a starting cornerback to injury.
I think Tennessee will get its points. The questions are
- Can Florida's inexperienced and untested defense hold Tennessee's offense to a reasonable number of points, giving its offense a chance to win the game?
- Has Tennessee's suspect defense improved as a result of its embarrassment against Cal enough to hold Tebow and company to a reasonable point total to give Lamarcus Coker and Erik Ainge a chance to win?
7:00pm-9:00pm or so: Attend wedding reception: The wedding itself is a small, very private family affair to which I am not invited (neither is anyone else who isn't related, from what I understand. The reception is where the action is. I decided not to get a hotel, because my wife and child will not be there. My wife was invited, but it was not possible to bring the baby because the venue is an art museum, with no children allowed in the building. That would have meant we'd have to get a sitter for the baby, and the whole thing just seemed way to fraught with danger and difficulty. Therefore, I'm going alone, and I'm coming back the same night.
9:00pm-whenever: I will be driving home, hoping to catch the second half of the game on the radio. As I get closer to Tuscaloosa, WWL will likely go out, and I'll switch over to the Bama-Arky game if it's still on.
The rumors around the message board is that Flynn is walking around in a boot and either a) is not ready to go, or b) shouldn't play and risk more serious injury. If so, it looks like Ryan Perrilloux may get his long-awaited first start. Stay tuned.
Labels:
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Thursday, September 13, 2007
SEC Preview plus Matt Flynn
I can't help but notice that comments have slowed down considerably since I started posting Bullwinkle-related images at the front of blog entries. If there's a correlation there, I'm highly disappointed in my readership. Come on! It's Bullwinkle!
I woke up this morning to this headline on Tiger Bait: "Flynn Questionable". Miles says he's day to day, and that we'll know more about whether he'll play tomorrow. Also questionable is strong safety Craig Steltz.
Around the SEC:
Mississippi State at Auburn, 11:30am, Lincoln Financial. I know I've said that I doubted MSU would win a conference game all season, but allow me to present this game as a potential upset. Having watched both of these teams play, I think MSU matches up pretty well against them. Auburn has a great right side defensive end in Quentin Groves, but MSU matches up with a left tackle (Michael Brown) who held Kirston Pittman in check for a whole game the week before Pittman earned SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week honors for his performance against Virginia Tech. Auburn's offensive line is VERY suspect, and MSU's defensive line is quite good. If Michael Henig can take care of the ball and if Michael Brown can hold Quentin Groves in check, MSU has a shot here.
Western Carolina at Georgia, noon: Georgia gets a salve for its post-South Carolina wounds by playing a D1-AA school that Bama absolutely trounced. Next week: Bama.
Tennessee at Florida, 2:30pm CBS: Finally, a CBS afternoon game. Tennessee's defense looked pretty bad against Cal, and frankly Tim Tebow looks like he's going to be the hardest person to defend in the entire conference this year. He's going to give defensive coordinators fits all year. I don't think there is a single person in the conference, not even Darren McFadden, who is so heavily integrated into his team's offense than is Tim Tebow for Florida. I think to beat Florida's offense, you have to play disciplined assignment-based defense; you need corners who can cover good receivers man-to-man; you need defensive linemen who can penetrate consistently; and you need linebackers fast and athletic enough to stop runners from getting to the corner. If your cornerbacks need to provide run support, they'll fake a run and throw it to the receiver the corner isn't covering.
The good news, if you're Tennessee, is that it looks like Florida's defense is going to give up a lot of points. This really is an interesting matchup, and it could get very high scoring. Tennessee's defense is going to have to play better than it did against Cal, but honestly Florida doesn't have the kind of speed that burned Tennessee repeatedly. I'm not saying Florida has no speed, but Cal had all-world type speed.
Arkansas at Bama, 5:45 ESPN: Bama has looked better than expected, but they haven't faced a guy like McFadden. This will be a tremendous test of their questionable front seven. Even without Marcus Monk, Arky is a bigger test than Vandy. Bama will get a big boost from their home crowd, but if McFadden or Jones breaks off a big run early, that could take the crowd out of it. On the offensive side of the ball, Bama really has to get John Parker Wilson rolling. He doesn't have a touchdown pass yet and is averaging only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. He's been one of the least effective QBs in the conference so far this season. I don't know much about Arkansas's defense, but they'll probably need Wilson to have a break out game if they hope to win this one.
Another interesting stat about John Parker Wilson: he has not scored a rushing touchdown either this season or last season. He was the only full-time starting quarterback in the SEC last year not to score a rushing touchdown last year. So far, five SEC quarterbacks have scored rushing touchdowns.
Ole Miss at Vandy, 6:00pm: Vandy, a team I maintain should be pretty good, tries to recover from a pretty devastating loss to Bama last week. They're better than Ole Miss, or at least they're better than the Ole Miss team that gave up about 1000 yards to Missouri. If not for some very untimely penalties and an injury to their QB, last week's game could have been different. If Nickson is healthy, look for him to try to take revenge on Ole Miss.
South Carolina State at South Carolina, 6:00pm: Honestly, what is there to say that hasn't already been said. It's "State" versus "U". What more do you need?
Louisville at Kentucky, 6:30pm, ESPN Classic: That's right, it's on ESPN Classic. What does this say about this matchup? Nothing, really, but it is actually quite an interesting looking game. Frankly, despite Louisville's lofty top 10 ranking, they still have a lot to prove after giving up 42 points to Middle Tennessee State University. Granted, they scored 58 points against MTSU, and Kentucky is not known for stellar defense, but they can't afford to leave receivers open the way they did. If you don't believe it, check out the picture to the left. Neither of these teams has really proven to be any good this year. I suppose that's what they mean when they describe this as a "Credibility Game". The winner gets to say, in all honesty, that they've accomplished something. Good luck Cats.
I woke up this morning to this headline on Tiger Bait: "Flynn Questionable". Miles says he's day to day, and that we'll know more about whether he'll play tomorrow. Also questionable is strong safety Craig Steltz.
Around the SEC:
Mississippi State at Auburn, 11:30am, Lincoln Financial. I know I've said that I doubted MSU would win a conference game all season, but allow me to present this game as a potential upset. Having watched both of these teams play, I think MSU matches up pretty well against them. Auburn has a great right side defensive end in Quentin Groves, but MSU matches up with a left tackle (Michael Brown) who held Kirston Pittman in check for a whole game the week before Pittman earned SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week honors for his performance against Virginia Tech. Auburn's offensive line is VERY suspect, and MSU's defensive line is quite good. If Michael Henig can take care of the ball and if Michael Brown can hold Quentin Groves in check, MSU has a shot here.
Western Carolina at Georgia, noon: Georgia gets a salve for its post-South Carolina wounds by playing a D1-AA school that Bama absolutely trounced. Next week: Bama.
Tennessee at Florida, 2:30pm CBS: Finally, a CBS afternoon game. Tennessee's defense looked pretty bad against Cal, and frankly Tim Tebow looks like he's going to be the hardest person to defend in the entire conference this year. He's going to give defensive coordinators fits all year. I don't think there is a single person in the conference, not even Darren McFadden, who is so heavily integrated into his team's offense than is Tim Tebow for Florida. I think to beat Florida's offense, you have to play disciplined assignment-based defense; you need corners who can cover good receivers man-to-man; you need defensive linemen who can penetrate consistently; and you need linebackers fast and athletic enough to stop runners from getting to the corner. If your cornerbacks need to provide run support, they'll fake a run and throw it to the receiver the corner isn't covering.
The good news, if you're Tennessee, is that it looks like Florida's defense is going to give up a lot of points. This really is an interesting matchup, and it could get very high scoring. Tennessee's defense is going to have to play better than it did against Cal, but honestly Florida doesn't have the kind of speed that burned Tennessee repeatedly. I'm not saying Florida has no speed, but Cal had all-world type speed.
Arkansas at Bama, 5:45 ESPN: Bama has looked better than expected, but they haven't faced a guy like McFadden. This will be a tremendous test of their questionable front seven. Even without Marcus Monk, Arky is a bigger test than Vandy. Bama will get a big boost from their home crowd, but if McFadden or Jones breaks off a big run early, that could take the crowd out of it. On the offensive side of the ball, Bama really has to get John Parker Wilson rolling. He doesn't have a touchdown pass yet and is averaging only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. He's been one of the least effective QBs in the conference so far this season. I don't know much about Arkansas's defense, but they'll probably need Wilson to have a break out game if they hope to win this one.
Another interesting stat about John Parker Wilson: he has not scored a rushing touchdown either this season or last season. He was the only full-time starting quarterback in the SEC last year not to score a rushing touchdown last year. So far, five SEC quarterbacks have scored rushing touchdowns.
Ole Miss at Vandy, 6:00pm: Vandy, a team I maintain should be pretty good, tries to recover from a pretty devastating loss to Bama last week. They're better than Ole Miss, or at least they're better than the Ole Miss team that gave up about 1000 yards to Missouri. If not for some very untimely penalties and an injury to their QB, last week's game could have been different. If Nickson is healthy, look for him to try to take revenge on Ole Miss.
South Carolina State at South Carolina, 6:00pm: Honestly, what is there to say that hasn't already been said. It's "State" versus "U". What more do you need?
Sunday, September 9, 2007
Week 2: Around the SEC
South Carolina at Georgia: After looking very mediocre against ULL last week, South Carolina showed a little of why I predicted they'd be a factor in the SEC East last night. South Carolina rode a solid running game and a stout defense to a tense, ugly victory over UGA. They now sit alone in first place in the East. Matthew Stafford, who I think has the most potential of any young QB in the conference, looked very, very mediocre last night in completing less than half of his passes for less than 5 yards per attempt. Blake Mitchell wasn't great, but he was better than Stafford.
Bama at Vandy: I may have to revise my opinion of Bama. They looked pretty darn good against a team I think is pretty darn good themselves. Freshman running back Terry Grant made a bid for the GeauxTuscaloosa SEC Offensive Player of the Week in rushing for 173 yards and 2 touchdowns. Some untimely penalties early in the game really hurt Vandy, taking away big plays, and they never recovered. The Bama defense looked better than advertised, and the running game is making up for a passing game that has been disappointing so far.
Troy at Florida: The Tim Tebow show continues, as he scored 5 touchdowns (3 passing, 2 rushing) and racked up 329 yards of total offense. He was the leading rusher on the game for either team. He is the second consecutive recipient of the GeauxTuscaloosa SEC Offensive Player of the Week (I don't give out a Defensive Player of the Week award because stats are too hard to find). That Florida defense, however, gives up some points. We'll see what happens next week and see if Florida is a legit contender.
Missouri at Ole Miss: A great effort by BenJarvis Green-Ellis goes to waste. He rushed for a whopping 236 yards in a losing effort. Ole Miss just couldn't stop Missouri at all. Chase Daniel's line at QB was 31 for 43 with 330 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Plus, he rushed for 66 yards, as Ole Miss gave up 559 yards of total offense. I honestly thought Ole Miss's defense would be pretty solid this year. Guess I was wrong.
Southern Miss at Tennessee: Tennessee overcame a slow start to pull away at the end. Erik Ainge had a pretty good line. He's been a solid QB his whole career, but has gotten a rap of not playing well in the big games. NEWS FLASH: No SEC QB played well against Florida or LSU in the last couple years. He'll get a chance for redemption next week in a game that will probably make or break his legacy as a college QB.
Mississippi State at Tulane: Michael Henig had a solid game following up his horrid stat line against LSU. He was 21 of 31 for 223 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. The Bulldogs won handily.
South Florida at Auburn: Something stinks, and it's Auburn's offense. If not for Michael Henig's horrible game against LSU, Brandon Cox would be the lowest-rated QB in the league. Cox was 16 of 35 for 165 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions in an overtime loss to the Bulls. Neither of Auburn's two big rushers had Auburn averaged more than 4.4 yards per carry. I didn't watch any of this game, but I suspect the culprit once again was poor blocking.
Kent State at Kentucky: I have nothing interesting to say about this contest.
Most Productive QB of the Week: Tim Tebow's GTQBPI (GeauxTuscaloosa Quarterback Productivity Index) was 10.21 yards per play, which was the best in the league among starters. Perrilloux's was 16.21 yards per play in a backup role. If he keeps playing at that high of a level, I'll have to start ranking him based on cumulative stats.
Least Productive QB of the Week: Chris Nickson of Vandy was 5 for 18 for 67 yards and one interception, and was in the negatives in rushing, earning him a 1.43 yards per play GTQBPI. Brandon Cox thanks him.
Bama at Vandy: I may have to revise my opinion of Bama. They looked pretty darn good against a team I think is pretty darn good themselves. Freshman running back Terry Grant made a bid for the GeauxTuscaloosa SEC Offensive Player of the Week in rushing for 173 yards and 2 touchdowns. Some untimely penalties early in the game really hurt Vandy, taking away big plays, and they never recovered. The Bama defense looked better than advertised, and the running game is making up for a passing game that has been disappointing so far.
Troy at Florida: The Tim Tebow show continues, as he scored 5 touchdowns (3 passing, 2 rushing) and racked up 329 yards of total offense. He was the leading rusher on the game for either team. He is the second consecutive recipient of the GeauxTuscaloosa SEC Offensive Player of the Week (I don't give out a Defensive Player of the Week award because stats are too hard to find). That Florida defense, however, gives up some points. We'll see what happens next week and see if Florida is a legit contender.
Missouri at Ole Miss: A great effort by BenJarvis Green-Ellis goes to waste. He rushed for a whopping 236 yards in a losing effort. Ole Miss just couldn't stop Missouri at all. Chase Daniel's line at QB was 31 for 43 with 330 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Plus, he rushed for 66 yards, as Ole Miss gave up 559 yards of total offense. I honestly thought Ole Miss's defense would be pretty solid this year. Guess I was wrong.
Southern Miss at Tennessee: Tennessee overcame a slow start to pull away at the end. Erik Ainge had a pretty good line. He's been a solid QB his whole career, but has gotten a rap of not playing well in the big games. NEWS FLASH: No SEC QB played well against Florida or LSU in the last couple years. He'll get a chance for redemption next week in a game that will probably make or break his legacy as a college QB.
Mississippi State at Tulane: Michael Henig had a solid game following up his horrid stat line against LSU. He was 21 of 31 for 223 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. The Bulldogs won handily.
South Florida at Auburn: Something stinks, and it's Auburn's offense. If not for Michael Henig's horrible game against LSU, Brandon Cox would be the lowest-rated QB in the league. Cox was 16 of 35 for 165 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions in an overtime loss to the Bulls. Neither of Auburn's two big rushers had Auburn averaged more than 4.4 yards per carry. I didn't watch any of this game, but I suspect the culprit once again was poor blocking.
Kent State at Kentucky: I have nothing interesting to say about this contest.
Most Productive QB of the Week: Tim Tebow's GTQBPI (GeauxTuscaloosa Quarterback Productivity Index) was 10.21 yards per play, which was the best in the league among starters. Perrilloux's was 16.21 yards per play in a backup role. If he keeps playing at that high of a level, I'll have to start ranking him based on cumulative stats.
Least Productive QB of the Week: Chris Nickson of Vandy was 5 for 18 for 67 yards and one interception, and was in the negatives in rushing, earning him a 1.43 yards per play GTQBPI. Brandon Cox thanks him.
Labels:
Auburn,
bama,
florida,
georgia,
kentucky,
mississippi state,
ole miss,
quarterbacks,
south carolina,
tennessee,
vandy
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