Football salaries

This article in USA Today was published before Bama decided to pay Nick Saban $4 million per year to be their football coach. It discusses coaches' salaries, with several basic statistical points:

• The average of Division 1-A schools is almost $1 million per year.
• The average at BCS conferences is $1.4 million per year.
• The average at non-BCS conferences in Division 1-A is about $0.5 million per year
• Nine coaches (as of last November) make more than $2 million per year. One can imagine that Urban Meyer is ahead of that benchmark now as well. The highest was Bob Stoops' almost $3.5 million per year, until Saban eclipsed it.
  

Incidentally, as of that writing, Les Miles is mid-pack in the SEC where the highest pre-Saban salary was Tommy Tuberville's $2.2 million per year. As I've said, Tommy's earned it.

But that's not my point. My brother brought up an interesting conundrum some college administrators face. These coaches' contracts are laced with incentives, and one common incentive is undoubtedly, "If Coach So-and-So wins the BCS National Championship, his salary is automatically to escalate to the highest salary in college football," or the average of the 5 highest salaries. With Nick Saban now breaking new salary ground, are certain schools priced out of the national championship hunt simply because they cannot afford to pay their coach the incentive bonus in his contract?

What would happen if, say, Vanderbilt were to put together a story-book undefeated run this season? If Bobby Johnson's contract has an expensive incentive tied to Nick Saban's salary, would they decline an invitation to the National Championship game? If you think this is so unlikely of a scenario, just ask yourself who would have thought Wake Forest would be a BCS team last year, or that Rutgers would be a serious National Championship contender through more than half of last season?

I remember back several years ago reading that small-money indie-rockers were actually asking friendly radio stations NOT to play their songs, because they couldn't afford the commissions they had to pay their promoters for getting on radio play lists. This strikes me as a similar scenario, whereby a university may pull itself out of national championship contention simply because it cannot afford to win it. It is a nightmare scenario for the NCAA and one which, honestly, I have no idea if it could really happen.

You can say, "If this happens, you can only blame the university for locking itself into a contract that it couldn't afford to pay." Fair enough, it would be the university that would be to blame, but that doesn't change the fact that this would be terribly embarrassing for the NCAA, would call into question the legitimacy of the national championship in that year, and would shine a very unwelcome light on the world of big-money college football.

Here's hoping it never happens.

A Retrospective

We've been doing this blog thing for about 4 1/2 months now through slow off-season lack-of-news. Despite that, there is a LOT of content in the archives that, in my unending egotism (notice the use of the royal "We" above), I consider well worth reading. Because we have a number of new readers these days, I thought I'd link back to some of my key earlier writings, much like when The Simpsons do a clip show.

• My introduction
• My informative series on the basics of recruiting
• A criticism of the standard passer rating and a new formulation of a passing statistic, and an analysis of last year's SEC quarterbacks under this new system.
• The continuing series on Bama and Saban, which I think are critical, but very fair.
• An attempt to do the same for running backs and rushing teams what I did for passers.
• Post #1 about the "Dismissed Three", followed by Post #2, where I suggest that better players need not be treated the same as lesser players.
• A brief statistical analysis of Auburn's recruiting and results, wherein I conclude that Tommy Tuberville is probably the best coach in the SEC.
• Poseur's post on Jamarcus Russell versus Brady Quinn.
• The "underachiever" meme
• Media biases in the NFL draft.
• Comments on PETA and Mike V's death.
• Why it is not necessary to boot Ryan Perrilloux off the team.
• The series on 2007 recruits. Don't worry. This is not strictly biographical information. While there is biographical information, much of this series uses the incoming recruits and their stories as starting points to discuss larger, more general issues.
• My account of getting kicked off of TigerDroppings.
• The posts written by my guest-blogger, Poseur. His own, only partially-sports-related blog can be found here.

And finally, I leave you with the infamous Coach Orgeron song. Yaw yaw yaw.


For the new blood

2007 Recruiting - Stefoin Francois

This is Stefoin Francois, 6'0" 188#, safety from Reserve High School in Reserve, LA. He runs a 4.5 second 40 with a vertical of 30 inches. He committed to LSU late in the process, but was always considered to be very high on LSU. There seemed to be little chance that he would not sign with LSU.

And let me just say that He. Looks. Great. He played at the Army All-America Game back in January, which is a high school All-Star game that gets players from all over the country. Lots of 5-star, 4-star, and 3-star players were there, including bright stars Joe McKnight, Jimmy Clauson, Noel Devine, and future LSU-signees Terrance Tolliver, Ron Brooks, and Joseph Barksdale and many others.

Even among that exceptional talent, Stefoin really stood out as having a terrific game. He hit hard, tackled well, and showed a lot of speed at the safety position. At the time, there were other recruits out there looking at LSU that people were very excited about, such as Joe McKnight, Chad Jones, and Terrance Tolliver, and Stefoin had kind of gotten a little lost in the shuffle. Casual observers just weren't particularly excited about him, and some people even questioned whether or not we had room for him in the class.

That changed at the Army All-America Game. Once the fans saw him in action though, there was no more question about whether there was room for Francois. He just looked too good. At a game where it's hard to stand out because no one gets a lot of playing time, he really looked good. That's why I think he'll be one of the 3 defensive backs from this class who eventually start for LSU, along with Chad Jones and Phelon Jones.

Stefoin is a free safety. It really took me a while to understand the difference between the free safety and the strong safety, until I simply started looking at it like this: the free safety is a combination corner/safety while the strong safety is a combination safety/linebacker. The free safety has bigger coverage responsibilities, so needs more speed and cover abilities, and the strong safety has bigger run-support responsibilities, so needs to be bigger and a good tackler. Both safeties have responsibilities in all phases however, so both must have speed and cover skills and both must have size and tackling ability.

The only weakness I see in him is that his listed size is a little small for a free safety. He'll need to put on about 10 or 15 pounds or so, but I'm not concerned. This kid will be a very good player. I'm guessing he'll be on special teams immediately, but don't count him out of earning his way into the lineup as a nickel or dime defensive back as the season presses on.

SEC Early Season Preview

To me, there really isn't much point in discussing mid-season or late-season SEC games right now. Too many things will happen between here and there that will render the preview obsolete by the time we get there. Instead, I'm going to run down a list of early season games that I'm really looking forward to seeing, and tell you why. I'll exclude the LSU games, which should be obvious anyway. Here's a ranking of non-LSU games I'm excited to see in the first 3 weeks.

1. Bama at Vandy, September 8, Week 2. This is the first true test of whether or not hiring Nick Saban will give Bama any immediate improvement. Vandy's no pushover, but if Bama has really improved this quickly, they should be able to handle Vandy fairly easily. If Saban has been unable to really improve the team (or if Mike Shula really wasn't that bad), Vandy will be able to stay with Bama, and will have a real shot to beat them. A loss to Vandy would be devastating, as it would mean that there would be a real chance that Bama would start the season 1-4, and possibly collapse from there despite the schedule easing up a bit after that. A loss to Vandy will make it hard for Bama to get the 6 wins necessary to get to a bowl game. This game will go a long way towards telling us if Bama is going to be a real player in the West this year or if they will decline.

2. South Carolina at Georgia, September 8, Week 2. I've been talking up South Carolina at every opportunity. At this point before the season, I see no reason to believe that any team in the East is better than South Carolina. They have an experienced senior QB who was rather effective last year when he played. They have one of the best running backs in the East. They have a solid #1 WR. They have the best linebacking corp in the East and possibly in the conference. Last but not least, they have Steve Spurrier. They return a ton of starters on defense, and they got a terrific 2007 recruiting class. Of course, it could just be some illusion, which the Rivals network believes. I've been burned by South Carolina before, when I thought they were a dark horse to win the East last year. Like with the above game, week 2 will tell me if I've made a decent pick or if I've seen a mirage again.

As for Georgia, there's every reason to believe they'll be a decent team, and some reason to believe they'll be better than decent. If they handle South Carolina here, watch out for them.

3. Arkansas at Bama, September 15, Week 3. People are sleeping on Arkansas this year. They've had an embarrassing offseason, and they lost a lot of good players, particularly on the offensive line. I guess people think that Arkansas just isn't going to be that dangerous this year with all those losses. There are a lot of similarities between the 2006 Arkansas team and the 2005 Bama team. Both teams got a lot of breaks early, peaked in the middle of the season, stayed in the National Championship hunt until a late-season close loss to LSU, then finished weak. If the trend continues, Arkansas really will have a weak season in 2007 to match Bama's weak season in 2006.

However, I say watch out for Arkansas. Bama lost Brodie Croyle, Tyrone Prothro, and several excellent and theretofore underappreciated defensive players (like Mark Anderson), and suffered through the inexplicably production decline of its star running back. Arkansas loses some good players, but nothing quite like that list of talent, and there is little prospect of the McFadden-Jones tandem going all Ken Darby on them. If they can piece together and effective offensive line, they're a very dangerous team, and this game will be the first test for them.

4. Tennessee at Florida, September 15, Week 3. Well this one just goes without saying. This game always goes a long way towards setting up the season in the East. Both teams have holes to fill, and there's no reason to believe either will be in the hunt for a national championship, but it's Tennessee-Florida! While there are other games I have more immediate interest in, you have to include this one on the list.

5. Tennessee at Cal, September 1, Week 1. This list is in order of excitement, not in chronological order. This is the biggest out-of-conference matchup for an SEC team other than LSU vs. Virginia Tech. Cal will be looking for revenge against a team that mauled them last season, setting the tone for people to realize how strong the SEC was. Cal has the Vols at home this time. We'll see if Tennessee can replace the weapons and defensive talent it lost. If so, they should handle Cal, but they won't have Cal in awe this time, like they were when they saw close to 100,000 screaming fans at Neyland Stadium last year, a sight Cal fans do not see in the more subdued Pac-10.

6. Kansas State at Auburn, September 1, Week 1. It's disappointing that Auburn has such a weak early schedule. There wasn't a single game in the first four weeks that I could really point to and say, "This game will tell us something about Auburn." There isn't one. This is easily their best game until they play Florida on September 29, and I'm just not going out that far. I applaud Auburn for scheduling a reasonably tough out-of-conference game. I just wish the scheduling gods hadn't followed it up with South Florida, bye-week, New Mexico State, and Mississippi State. How'd they manage to get their SEC opener to be against Mississippi State in Week 3 and not to have a really good SEC matchup until Week 5? Anyway, if you don't catch this one, you won't know anything about Auburn for a long time.

Short and Late Post

I'm down in Gonzales for the holiday and for a friend's wedding. We got on the road first thing in the morning, so there was no time for me to post this morning. I just have one thing to say today, though.

SportsCenter has Jumped the Shark.

In case you are unfamiliar with this term, it means "A defining moment when you know your favorite television show has reached its peak. That instant that you know from now on... it's all downhill." It refers to the time on Happy Days when Fonzie was water skiing and jumped over a great white shark that was trying to eat him.

Despite the rather neutral definition, it has a bad connotation. It usually refers to the moment a television show has done something dumb that calls into question your confidence in the writers/producers to put forth a good show in the future.

A couple days ago, as I was posting the review of the kickers, I had the TV on SportsCenter for a few moments and heard Stuart Scott and a couple panelists going through a list of "The Most Now Athletes." That isn't a typo. They were going through those athletes who are considered the most "now".

I don't even know what that means. How can one be more "now" than another. What does it mean to be "now"? Who's more "now" between Lebron and Tiger? More to the point, who gives a shit?

It was a moment that didn't just call into question my confidence in SportsCenter's ability to put together a quality program. It called into question my confidence in their desire to put together a quality program. It made me wonder, "Why do I even bother with this piece of crap?" How can I continue to patronize a show that can put together something so facile?

I already stopped watching College Football GameDay. I decided last year that I wouldn't watch it anymore, and I didn't miss it. I simply watched something else, read a book, or did housework early on Saturdays. I felt much better, and I was fresher for the start of actual football. I suppose I might watch it again when they're at the site of an LSU football game, but otherwise I will continue ignoring GameDay, and I will continue to feel I'm better off for it.

ESPN is in dire need of some competition. They're the only real general purpose sports channel in town. If anyone has a suggestion for a better general sports program to replace SportsCenter and a college football show to replace GameDay, please let me know.

Incidentally, it's not all bad. Last year, ESPNU's conference previews were outstanding. I think I watched every one of them. If you get ESPNU, definitely be sure to check those out.

The Great White Hope

I've complained about media and fans routinely comparing white athletes to other white athletes and otherwise racially stereotyping athletes. Enter Jacob Hester, who I really like as a player. He's good. He was our leading rusher last year and averaged well over 4 yards per carry. He made 35 catches, and scored a total of 8 touchdowns, which was third on the team. He also is a good pass blocker and excels on special teams. He will be a senior on this upcoming team.

He's an excellent football player. He's also sometimes a fullback, a position some people want him to play more of.

Personally, I don't like him as a fullback. He's not a great lead blocker, and giving the ball to the fullback just takes the tailback out of the play, meaning the team is playing 10 against 11. I like him as a tailback. He can do it all at that position. He may not be as strong of a pure runner as Keiland Williams, but he can be trusted in all situations. With Hester on the field, the defense can't key on either the run or the pass.

Here's one fan comment on Mr. Hester:

Screw the stopwatch, the recruiting stars, the moves and cuts.. This guy is playing football on another level Gotta be knowledge and heart. But whatever it is, I bet he comes in on 3d and 6 in the 4th quarter of a tight SEC game.

If there is ever an example of internet/newspaper fans not knowing what coaches could see in a "lower-rated" recruit. it's JH!

While I like the sentiment of not relying exclusively on recruiting service rankings (Hester was a 2-star), I have to ask, "WHAT!?" It's gotta be knowledge and heart? Why don't you just say, "It has to be the whiteness"?

If you're the kind of guy who likes to compare athletes to one another (and I am), I think there's a very clear recent comparison for Jacob Hester that should be known to all or most LSU fans. He's a solid runner, good receiver, and good blocker. It's Joseph Addai, who did all of those things at LSU as recently as 2005. It's a good comparison, though Hester may not be quite as good as Addai, who was a 1st round draft choice of the Indianapolis Colts, and recently won the Super Bowl.

But to whom have I seen him compared recently? Well, it's hard to come up with a white running back, and for some reason everyone wants to compare white to white and black to black. I've actually seen someone reach all the way back to Hokie Gajan, a running back who played for LSU and for the New Orleans Saints, last playing organized football over 20 years ago. A bit of a tortured comparison, no?

Is this ridiculous? Well, I suppose it's a good thing that some people remember Hokie Gajan, but I imagine the comparison between Hester and Hokie is more imagined than real. Heck, there's even a more recent white running back at LSU in Sammy Martin, but I suppose the fact that Hester has hair disqualifies that comparison. Hester is doing OK in the hair department, and poor Sammy Martin entered LSU with a greatly receding hairline. Maybe hair means more than race.

2007 Recruiting - Josh Jasper and Andrew Crutchfield

The gentleman on the left is Andrew Crutchfield, kicker, Northwest Carrabus High School in Concord, NC. The gentleman on the right is Josh Jasper, kicker, Ridgeway High School in Memphis, Tennessee. They are both kickers/punters, and both have scholarships to play football at LSU.

This caused quite a bit of consternation among LSU faithful. Scholarships for kickers? Two of them in one year?

In a sport where there are a limited number of scholarships available, is it wise to spend scholarships on "specialists", like punters, kickers, and long snappers?

I think the answer is an emphatic "YES!" but with a few qualifiers. Kickers take the field after every touchdown to kick an extra point and then to kickoff. They put points on the board, and not always with easy extra points. Punters are vitally important to field position, and a good punter will help a team win the field position war. The importance of getting quality players at these positions should not be downplayed.

I think that there have been a few games recently where the importance of kickers/punters has been obvious. In 2005, LSU overcame an upset bid by Oregon State in no small part because the Oregon State kicker missed 3 extra points. In 2006, LSU lost a hard-fought battle against Auburn in which Auburn punter Kody Bliss averaged 48.6 yards per punt and LSU punter Chris Jackson averaged only 42 yards per punt, a difference of almost 5 yards per punt, and a difference of 37 yards total over the course of the game in Auburn's favor. In a game where a lot of different factor probably individually were the differences between a win and a loss, I truly believe that punting was one of them. If the punting in that game was reversed, LSU probably wins that game, and we may have ended up playing for the National Championship.

Keeping in mind the above examples from recent history, I think it is obvious that the kicker and punter positions are at least as important as, say, the backup offensive guard position. Most teams wouldn't dream of using walk-ons for the backup offensive guard spot unless a walk-on ended up much better than expected.

Of course, it is always best to avoid using a scholarship. If you can get the same level of quality
out of a walk-on than you could out of a scholarship player, by all means save the scholarship and use a walk-on. That's the first qualifier on my statement that it is OK to use scholarships on kickers on punters. That is often not the case, however, and it is necessary to use a scholarship.

The second qualifier or caveat is that it is very important that you not get it wrong. You cannot have a kicker on scholarship who is not getting it done. While you can afford to use a scholarship on a kicker or a punter, it is vital that the coaches do their homework and get the right one, and not use a scholarship on one who will never be a contributor. You expect that with position players, but you can't afford to miss on a specialist.

But why two in one year? Well, you must realize that LSU is losing Chris Jackson, who played multiple roles: punter, kickoffs, and long field goals. These two guys are replacing him. Crutchfield is the punter and kickoff man, and Jasper is allegedly a really accurate field goal kicker. Both are allegedly good. Of course, we already have Patrick Fisher, Brady Dalfrey, and Colt David on the roster. Fisher and Dalfrey have been around for a few years and have yet to contribute. Dalfrey also has been suspended from the team for academic reasons, but could return for the fall. One wonders if the second caveat applies to this situation.